Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Uhhh more meant the fact that closing down would probably cost me my income.

I know...but there are proven alternatives to shutdown and job loss

It requires competent policy

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I pretty much agree...look at how many colonies (especially the ones in africa) that are probably worse off now than during SOME of there colonized days.

Red alert on this one

 

[JoeCamel]

Uhhh more meant the fact that closing down would probably cost me my income.

I don't support closing without compensation but I do support closing when community spread is rampant in an area.

 

[GhostHost1000]

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

 

[Heppenheimer]

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

My guess? 6 months to a year after cases drop to a low enough level that the kind of numbers Disney depends on feel safe to travel again. So, well over a year from now and likely longer.

 

[ChrisRobin124]

Huge news! Yay for good news.

Covid-19: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine judged safe for use in UK

The UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer vaccine - with 800,000 doses due to arrive soon.

trib.al

A question for you all that I haven't seen asked. So beg my pardon if this has been covered. If this emergency review board at the FDA was put together to quickly review the emergency vaccine request, what takes them 3 weeks to get together for the review. If people are getting sick and dying each day, why does it take 3 weeks to clear the calendar? Assuming approval, it will be about 6 weeks between the publication of the trial results and the first inoculation. Anyone but me take issue with that? Just seems to me they should have been meeting the following week.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah because i would rather not have a job.....said anyone.

Job loss sucks, but I still don’t think we can blame that on “lockdowns”. For very targeted businesses: bars, strip clubs, movie theaters, international airlines, etc...there is a direct link to restrictions, but many, many other people are out of work because of the virus and worldwide pandemic. Even some of those businesses shut down would still see a steep decline in business so a bartender who used to make $300 on a Friday night in tips might be lucky to clear half that if the bar was open but many people didn’t show up. Domestic airlines are not restricted anyway and yet thousands of workers are out of work and flights are way down. That’s due to the virus not restrictions. WDW is open and rarely reaches the capacity limit. Tens of thousands of CMs are still out of work despite the state of FL not putting any restrictions on Disney. The pandemic is causing that. If you work as a bartender and your bar is in a state where the bar is closed, then yes, that’s due to a government imposed restriction. Same goes for a CM at DLR. In the US right now the majority of unemployment is not directly linked to a government imposed restriction. It was a different story in April.

On the concept of masks, the last time I checked a mask mandate didn‘t require a single business to close. In many areas the mask mandates have saved businesses. People feel more comfortable or safe going to a mall or retail store when masks are required. I know my FIL who lives in FL stopped going to any physical stores as much as possible due to the lack of people wearing masks, and that includes his local supermarket that imposed their own mask requirement that is not consistently followed by other customers due to the Governor railing on about no mask mandates. It’s good news for Amazon and grocery delivery services, but a killer for brick and mortar stores. So from an economic standpoint a statewide mask mandate is probably actually a positive for the economy and jobs. It makes no sense for a guy to claim he’s banning government imposed shut downs of businesses to then also stop localities from imposing mask mandates which help businesses stay open.

I think we can look at FL and see that mandates are not the key driver of unemployment. It’s been several months since the Governor removed all restrictions and the economy in FL isn’t exactly booming. Unemployment is still a big problem. It’s very easy to gain political favor by railing on about lockdowns and claim you are fighting to help the economy, but much of what the FL Governor has done is actually detrimental to the overall economy. I know Disney would prefer if the rest of the state had some more safety protocols. It might help draw in more tourists and help their business.

 

[Lilofan]

Job loss sucks, but I still don’t think we can blame that on “lockdowns”. For very targeted businesses: bars, strip clubs, movie theaters, international airlines, etc...there is a direct link to restrictions, but many, many other people are out of work because of the virus and worldwide pandemic. Even some of those businesses shut down would still see a steep decline in business so a bartender who used to make $300 on a Friday night in tips might be lucky to clear half that if the bar was open but many people didn’t show up. Domestic airlines are not restricted anyway and yet thousands of workers are out of work and flights are way down. That’s due to the virus not restrictions. WDW is open and rarely reaches the capacity limit. Tens of thousands of CMs are still out of work despite the state of FL not putting any restrictions on Disney. The pandemic is causing that. If you work as a bartender and your bar is in a state where the bar is closed, then yes, that’s due to a government imposed restriction. Same goes for a CM at DLR. In the US right now the majority of unemployment is not directly linked to a government imposed restriction. It was a different story in April.

On the concept of masks, the last time I checked a mask mandate didn‘t require a single business to close. In many areas the mask mandates have saved businesses. People feel more comfortable or safe going to a mall or retail store when masks are required. I know my FIL who lives in FL stopped going to any physical stores as much as possible due to the lack of people wearing masks, and that includes his local supermarket that imposed their own mask requirement that is not consistently followed by other customers due to the Governor railing on about no mask mandates. It’s good news for Amazon and grocery delivery services, but a killer for brick and mortar stores. So from an economic standpoint a statewide mask mandate is probably actually a positive for the economy and jobs. It makes no sense for a guy to claim he’s banning government imposed shut downs of businesses to then also stop localities from imposing mask mandates which help businesses stay open.

I think we can look at FL and see that mandates are not the key driver of unemployment. It’s been several months since the Governor removed all restrictions and the economy in FL isn’t exactly booming. Unemployment is still a big problem. It’s very easy to gain political favor by railing on about lockdowns and claim you are fighting to help the economy, but much of what the FL Governor has done is actually detrimental to the overall economy. I know Disney would prefer if the rest of the state had some more safety protocols. It might help draw in more tourists and help their business.

Unemployment is not going to be the forefront issue of the impacted. The eviction moratorium ends Dec 31, 2020.

 

[Disstevefan1]

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

My guess (and it is only a guess as no one knows) is the masking, distancing and limited park capacity will end around June, when anyone who wants the vaccine can get the vaccine.

I think fireworks and parades will come back immediately, the other things that require the stage performance will take longer to fill the spots and rehearse.

I do not think WDW will require proof of vaccine. DLR who knows?

As for the cruise ships, in my opinion, all cruise lines including Disney should require proof of vaccine.

 

[GoofGoof]

Unemployment is not going to be the forefront issue of the impacted. The eviction moratorium ends Dec 31, 2020.

A comprehensive relief bill is obviously needed but the government is so broken right now. We can’t wait until Jan 20.

 

[GoofGoof]

A question for you all that I haven't seen asked. So beg my pardon if this has been covered. If this emergency review board at the FDA was put together to quickly review the emergency vaccine request, what takes them 3 weeks to get together for the review. If people are getting sick and dying each day, why does it take 3 weeks to clear the calendar? Assuming approval, it will be about 6 weeks between the publication of the trial results and the first inoculation. Anyone but me take issue with that? Just seems to me they should have been meeting the following week.

The independent board has received the data from the trial and they are currently reviewing. The board is made up of scientists who have the background to review and question the results. They have the time between submission by Pfizer and the meeting to review data, come up with questions and then ask those questions to the Pfizer scientists at the meeting. This isn’t just a rubber stamp, they are supposed to be thoroughly reviewing the data. I think the process is expedited to the extent it can be. Could they have met a week earlier? Maybe, but it wouldn‘t be ethical to just immediately approve. The UK approval is a week and a day earlier than the likely US approval so not a huge amount of time. Yes, a US citizen is dying every minute at this point so even cutting a week off could have potentially saved 10,000 people, but there has to be a balance between speed and a thorough review process.

 

[Kevin_W]

A question for you all that I haven't seen asked. So beg my pardon if this has been covered. If this emergency review board at the FDA was put together to quickly review the emergency vaccine request, what takes them 3 weeks to get together for the review. If people are getting sick and dying each day, why does it take 3 weeks to clear the calendar? Assuming approval, it will be about 6 weeks between the publication of the trial results and the first inoculation. Anyone but me take issue with that? Just seems to me they should have been meeting the following week.

I wonder the same thing. I assume they are taking the time to review the data before they meet. But it seems to me that they data should have been packaged by Pfizer (and their outside review board) and that it shouldn't take 3 weeks to review. There is only some much you can do with a data set and a skilled statistician wouldn't take that long to look through everything.

 

[ChrisRobin124]

The independent board has received the data from the trial and they are currently reviewing. The board is made up of scientists who have the background to review and question the results. They have the time between submission by Pfizer and the meeting to review data, come up with questions and then ask those questions to the Pfizer scientists at the meeting. This isn’t just a rubber stamp, they are supposed to be thoroughly reviewing the data. I think the process is expedited to the extent it can be. Could they have met a week earlier? Maybe, but it wouldn‘t be ethical to just immediately approve. The UK approval is a week and a day earlier than the likely US approval so not a huge amount of time. Yes, a US citizen is dying every minute at this point so even cutting a week off could have potentially saved 10,000 people, but there has to be a balance between speed and a thorough review process.

Thank you for your thoughtful reply, @GoofGoof!

 

[GoofGoof]

My guess (and it is only a guess as no one knows) is the masking, distancing and limited park capacity will end around June, when anyone who wants the vaccine can get the vaccine.

I think fireworks and parades will come back immediately, the other things that require the stage performance will take longer to fill the spots and rehearse.

I do not think WDW will require proof of vaccine. DLR who knows?

As for the cruise ships, in my opinion, all cruise lines including Disney should require proof of vaccine.

This seems pretty reasonable. I think the distancing and capacity limits start getting dialed back first with masks going last. It could be gradual vs all at once. So maybe they remove distancing in queues and on rides with masks on but keep distancing in restaurants. If they get rid of distancing they can ramp up capacity. I think it will also be a gradual return of resorts and overall attendance. When the demand gets high enough then shows and entertainment come back. I think it also depends on how fast the airlines ramp up and overall travel. If demand isn’t there Disney isn‘t bringing back expensive shows and entertainment.

 

[danlb_2000]

I wonder the same thing. I assume they are taking the time to review the data before they meet. But it seems to me that they data should have been packaged by Pfizer (and their outside review board) and that it shouldn't take 3 weeks to review. There is only some much you can do with a data set and a skilled statistician wouldn't take that long to look through everything.

I think this is exactly what you DON'T want. If you are doing a review you want to be looking at raw data and not something that someone else has summarized.

They should take as much time as needed to review this. Yes, we need the vaccine, but the release of an unsafe vaccine would not only undermine trust in this vaccine, but in vaccinations in general.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wonder the same thing. I assume they are taking the time to review the data before they meet. But it seems to me that they data should have been packaged by Pfizer (and their outside review board) and that it shouldn't take 3 weeks to review. There is only some much you can do with a data set and a skilled statistician wouldn't take that long to look through everything.

I wonder if they have the ability to reach out to Pfizer for additional data in this time period. I’m not a scientist so trying to put this in finance terms. When you have an audit the auditors spend a lot of time reviewing data provided by the client and there is a back and forth where the auditors ask questions or ask for additional data. It’s only after all of the data is compiled that the formal audit opinion is given. Maybe I’m way off on this.

 

[drew81]

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

And then there’s the whole question about character dining with face characters.
Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

[GoofGoof]

And then there’s the whole question about character dining with face characters.
Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

...and buffets.

I think most of the character dining comes back with the characters just appearing in the restaurant at first but not going table to table. As soon as the CMs are vaccinated there’s less of a risk and they can return to normal. Not sure on buffets. Probably one of the last things back. Maybe buffets with servers (no self serve) come back first before full self serve buffets.

 

[DisneyCane]

what's everyone's guess on when things "might" return to some kind of normalcy? (nighttime shows, no masks, indoor shows, etc.)

I know they'd have to rehire and retrain a lot for the indoor shows. With the vaccine coming out that's a good thing BUT not everyone will take it or be able to take it for awhile. Will they do like Ticketmaster is going to do and require proof of a vaccine or negative test?

Something has to give at some point but where is that line for Disney?

It's hard to say because of international travel. If the vast majority of the US is vaccinated by June, I could see WDW returning to normal shortly thereafter. The issue is the level of vaccination in the population of the countries from which people visit.

I wouldn't have a problem if they require proof of vaccination but the negative test within 72 hours (which I think is ticketmaster's plan) would be stupid. First, you can be infected and not detectable yet. Second, there can be false negatives (see Elon Musk 2+, 2- on the same day). Third, if you really want to and are willing to handle some discomfort, you can ensure a negative result.

 

[DisneyCane]

...and buffets.

I think most of the character dining comes back with the characters just appearing in the restaurant at first but not going table to table. As soon as the CMs are vaccinated there’s less of a risk and they can return to normal. Not sure on buffets. Probably one of the last things back. Maybe buffets with servers (no self serve) come back first before full self serve buffets.

I wouldn't be surprised if all buffets everywhere never return to self service. I think COVID has made people think about how unsanitary they are with people touching serving utensils and the dropping them into the serving trays, etc.