Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

"The drug maker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that an early analysis of some of its late-stage clinical trials, conducted in Britain and Brazil, showed that its coronavirus vaccine was 70.4 percent effective, on average, in preventing Covid-19, the latest encouraging sign that vaccines may fulfill their potential as the world’s best hope to help curb a pandemic that has killed more than 1.3 million people.

One particular dosing plan that was tested — giving people a half-dose first and then, a month later, a full dose, rather than two full doses — was 90 percent effective, the researchers said, raising hopes that AstraZeneca could create more vaccine doses using the same supply. Scientists also noted the vaccine could be stored in a standard refrigerator, rather than the intense chill needed with other potential vaccines."

AstraZeneca’s Coronavirus Vaccine, Easy and Cheap to Produce, Appears Effective (Published 2020)

In an early analysis, the drug maker zeroed in on a promising dosing plan for its vaccine.

www.nytimes.com

 

[marni1971]

On that topic:

White House vaccine czar expects kids will receive coronavirus vaccine by middle of 2021

There's a growing likelihood that the first round of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine will be rolled out in just a few weeks. If and when that happens, only high priority groups, like health care workers, are expected to have access. Theoretically, the pool will grow over time, but children will...

www.yahoo.com

I don’t know if it’s been covered over there, but over here it’s possible jabs will be available this year and if so only for critical care NHS and care home people. Then over 80s. Then over 70s. Then over 60s and so on. If the gap between groups is a week, two weeks, a month remains to be seen.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don’t know if it’s been covered over there, but over here it’s possible jabs will be available this year and if so only for critical care NHS and care home people. Then over 80s. Then over 70s. Then over 60s and so on. If the gap between groups is a week, two weeks, a month remains to be seen.

Yes, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are expected to start here before Christmas with healthcare workers and serious high risk patients going first. The CDC still has to publish their official detailed plan for the order of who gets it when, but the very first people getting it has already been made public. There is some thought that the order would be determined by a combination of risk of serious illness and need to interact with the general public so over 65 would be higher priority but so would teachers and other essential workers needed to work outside their home. Not sure where theme park workers fall in.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I just heard on the news, first vaccines with be available around Dec. 12

 

[DisneyCane]

Just give up...

The only “human” in the country still talking about “vulnerable people”....everyone else seems to get it.

Nice to put "human" in quotes. Why don't you just call me a POS and get yourself banned?

I'm not the only one still talking about "vulnerable people" since they are the ones most seriously effected by this virus. The most intelligent thing to do is to try and protect them as much as possible without severely disrupting the lives of the whole population. Maybe you don't care if you have to drastically change the way you live for months on end because somehow THIS particular virus became the one that required that spread be stemmed at all cost, but I do.

To date, in Florida, 82% of the deaths are in people 65 years old and older while that group represents 14% of documented cases and 39.6% were nursing home residents. It doesn't take a genius like you to figure out that a particular segment of the population is far more vulnerable to this virus than the rest.

Not everybody thinks like you and believes that all measures must be taken to stop the spread, no matter the cost or inconvenience and not all people who disagree with you are subhuman morons with a 50 IQ.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Nice to put "human" in quotes. Why don't you just call me a POS and get yourself banned?

I'm not the only one still talking about "vulnerable people" since they are the ones most seriously effected by this virus. The most intelligent thing to do is to try and protect them as much as possible without severely disrupting the lives of the whole population. Maybe you don't care if you have to drastically change the way you live for months on end because somehow THIS particular virus became the one that required that spread be stemmed at all cost, but I do.

To date, in Florida, 82% of the deaths are in people 65 years old and older while that group represents 14% of documented cases and 39.6% were nursing home residents. It doesn't take a genius like you to figure out that a particular segment of the population is far more vulnerable to this virus than the rest.

Not everybody thinks like you and believes that all measures must be taken to stop the spread, no matter the cost or inconvenience and not all people who disagree with you are subhuman morons with a 50 IQ.

I’m sorry about your Cheerios this morning, mate.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Nice to put "human" in quotes. Why don't you just call me a POS and get yourself banned?

I'm not the only one still talking about "vulnerable people" since they are the ones most seriously effected by this virus. The most intelligent thing to do is to try and protect them as much as possible without severely disrupting the lives of the whole population. Maybe you don't care if you have to drastically change the way you live for months on end because somehow THIS particular virus became the one that required that spread be stemmed at all cost, but I do.

To date, in Florida, 82% of the deaths are in people 65 years old and older while that group represents 14% of documented cases and 39.6% were nursing home residents. It doesn't take a genius like you to figure out that a particular segment of the population is far more vulnerable to this virus than the rest.

Not everybody thinks like you and believes that all measures must be taken to stop the spread, no matter the cost or inconvenience and not all people who disagree with you are subhuman morons with a 50 IQ.

once again unfortunately it's not as simple as everyone not thinking the same. Unfortunately it's a matter of everyone's actions directly effecting some one else. There is no "individuality" in this pandemic. It's russian roulette, yes the propensity is that 65 years or older are hit harder BUT they are not the only ones and since no one can tell how the virus will effect them before hand, YES it is a good idea to disrupt the entire populations life for a brief time.
but you are absolutely correct I would not called them subhuman morons, I would call them selfish but that's another thread
As you say it is an inconvenience. so no, I have no problem with us being inconvenienced in order to save some lives.

Next as it's also been stated, there is a wide spectrum of "hell" between dying and surviving this virus. They are becoming more and more common, WE are now seeing a boatload of folks who are horribly ill with long term effects

so count me fully in the "get this under control no matter what the cost" column. the long term cost will be way worst if we don't

 

[eliza61nyc]

I’m sorry about your Cheerios this morning, mate.

I leave you alone for a couple of days and this is what happens......

 

[Heppenheimer]

Nice to put "human" in quotes. Why don't you just call me a POS and get yourself banned?

I'm not the only one still talking about "vulnerable people" since they are the ones most seriously effected by this virus. The most intelligent thing to do is to try and protect them as much as possible without severely disrupting the lives of the whole population. Maybe you don't care if you have to drastically change the way you live for months on end because somehow THIS particular virus became the one that required that spread be stemmed at all cost, but I do.

To date, in Florida, 82% of the deaths are in people 65 years old and older while that group represents 14% of documented cases and 39.6% were nursing home residents. It doesn't take a genius like you to figure out that a particular segment of the population is far more vulnerable to this virus than the rest.

Not everybody thinks like you and believes that all measures must be taken to stop the spread, no matter the cost or inconvenience and not all people who disagree with you are subhuman morons with a 50 IQ.

We get it. You want this pandemic to end (like we all do) but you want others to bear the cost and inconvenience. Unfortunately, we're all in this together and we all need to do our part.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Nice to put "human" in quotes. Why don't you just call me a POS and get yourself banned?

I'm not the only one still talking about "vulnerable people" since they are the ones most seriously effected by this virus. The most intelligent thing to do is to try and protect them as much as possible without severely disrupting the lives of the whole population. Maybe you don't care if you have to drastically change the way you live for months on end because somehow THIS particular virus became the one that required that spread be stemmed at all cost, but I do.

To date, in Florida, 82% of the deaths are in people 65 years old and older while that group represents 14% of documented cases and 39.6% were nursing home residents. It doesn't take a genius like you to figure out that a particular segment of the population is far more vulnerable to this virus than the rest.

Not everybody thinks like you and believes that all measures must be taken to stop the spread, no matter the cost or inconvenience and not all people who disagree with you are subhuman morons with a 50 IQ.

How’s Sweden doing? They took the exact course you have been laying out for months. Not only are their deaths so much higher then neighboring countries, several times higher in fact, but their economy went to s—- also. Now they are doing shut downs all over. So they tried to isolate the vulnerable while keeping the country fully open. It’s led to more deaths, bad exonomy.. and now it’s hitting them worse then even in the beginning. Sounds like a great plan.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11/18/sweden-coronavirus-surge-policy/%3foutputType=amp

 

[Kevin_W]

I just heard on the news, first vaccines with be available around Dec. 12

That is the expectation. FDA panel meets December 8-10, I believe and the 12th is the earliest approval could happen.

I'm curious about the details of the process. If Pfizer applied Friday, what is happening between Friday and December 8? I've got a statistician in my group, and if he were on the data review team I'd lock him in a room 24/7 with paid overtime.

 

[Heppenheimer]

That is the expectation. FDA panel meets December 8-10, I believe and the 12th is the earliest approval could happen.

I'm curious about the details of the process. If Pfizer applied Friday, what is happening between Friday and December 8? I've got a statistician in my group, and if he were on the data review team I'd lock him in a room 24/7 with paid overtime.

I wonder if speeding the process even further ahead would matter at this point. Pfizer said they will have the vaccine ready for administration as soon as the FDA issues the EUA, which presumably will involve a huge amount of coordination, and a lot of steps that need to be planned for precise timing well in advanced. At this point in time, would they even be able to ship the vaccine earlier than the expected date?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I leave you alone for a couple of days and this is what happens......

I’m just having fun...

But this is what is/has been going on:
1. Wrong...everyday, over and over again.
2. Still at it...an ever dwindling minority that thankfully is all but gone.
3. It’s not “opinion”...it’s right and wrong. Period.
No qualified individual is still saying “at risk or vulnerable”. It’s still spreading, landing people in the hospital, killing some. EVERYONE can spread it. This isn’t up for debate...anyone still staying this is basically cold hearted and wrong.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That is the expectation. FDA panel meets December 8-10, I believe and the 12th is the earliest approval could happen.

I'm curious about the details of the process. If Pfizer applied Friday, what is happening between Friday and December 8? I've got a statistician in my group, and if he were on the data review team I'd lock him in a room 24/7 with paid overtime.

I think the feeling is the fda has a resistance to “rush review”...no matter the circumstance...to maintain some academic neutrality.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red.

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type:​

• mRNA
• 2 doses
• requires sub-zero storage, -20C for long term storage; keeps for a month in a regular fridge

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.
• CDC's projection did not pan out

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020. It's *possible* that interim results in November can lead to Federal emergency use approval in December, otherwise, beginning of 2021.​

Effectiveness: over 90%​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type:​

• mRNA
• 2 doses
• requires ultra-cold storage, -70C for long term storage; can keep for 15 days in special cooler, or 5 days in regular fridge

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed:​

• $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)
• Though Warp Speed will pay for the vaccine and the CDC will guide distribution, Pfizer has not accepted any money in advance and they have set up their own distribution operations

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well).
• Late Oct or Nov.
• 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.
• CDC's projections did not pan out

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: ​

• Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.
• Now, not going to happen until Thanksgiving the earliest.
• Likely to get the governmental review before Thanksgiving which will show 90% effectiveness and completely safe (on the populations they tested)
• Request for emergency use submitted Nov 20, results pronounced on Dec 10

Effectiveness: Over 90%​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type:​

• altered chimp adenovirus
• can be one or two shots, with two being more effective
• no difficult storage requirements

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3:​

• In progress, started in September, study paused due to unexplained illness. Restarted in Europe, still on hold in the US. Restarted in the U.S. too.
• About to apply for emergency use overseas (11/23). Will then present that data to US FDA since U.S. phase 3 is still ongoing.

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• Doses can be delivered by Oct.
• CDC projections did not pan out

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

​

Effectiveness: One shot model: 62% effective. Two shot model: 90% effective. Company is claiming, in total, 70.4% effectiveness.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type:​

• altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine)
• 1 dose
• only refrigeration to store

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started in September, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020, enrollment now on a temporary pause due to one subject's unexplained illness. Enrollment restarted (the illness was in the placebo group).​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​

​

Warp Speed: $1.6B​

​

Phase 3: just started late September, could be done by the beginning of 2021​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.

 

[GoofGoof]

That is the expectation. FDA panel meets December 8-10, I believe and the 12th is the earliest approval could happen.

I'm curious about the details of the process. If Pfizer applied Friday, what is happening between Friday and December 8? I've got a statistician in my group, and if he were on the data review team I'd lock him in a room 24/7 with paid overtime.

They review the report between now and then. 12/8 to 12/10 is essentially a public hearing where the independent review panel grills the vaccine maker on safety and efficacy. They need the time between now and then to review and come up with good questions. In theory they could ask questions that require follow up, but if that doesn’t happen the panel could vote as soon as 12/10 on their recommendation. Once they recommend the FDA still needs to formally approve, bjt their approval very much relies on the advisory panel. After FDA approval the CDC also needs to approve and submit the formal plan for distribution which they say will happen within 24 hours of FDA approval. The CDC is meeting today to come up with the logistical side but no vote until the independent review panel makes their recommendations.

The entire process happens again the following week for the Moderna vaccine when the independent panel meets and is expected to vote 12/17. If all goes well both company’s vaccination roll outs could be started before Christmas

 

[jmp85]

I remember those days...wait until they stop eating off the kid’s menu and also need adult tickets. Double whammy

I am optimistic that we can get pretty close to that timeline. I am hedging my bets a little, I have a house rented in the Outer Banks end of June after school gets out. If we’re still under full Covid restrictions it should be relatively easy to enjoy the beach and the house anyway but I’m hoping to be able to eat a few meals out and be there to celebrate the end of this pandemic. I am planning a return to WDW in August which I know is still no sure thing. I am nervous the government is over promising a little on timelines, but if that’s based on Pfizer and Moderna alone it becomes even more likely if Oxford and JnJ come through as well. The start of the impact of the vaccine should begin even before full herd immunity is reached so even if we’re at 50% by May instead of 70% that could be enough to begin seeing a sharp decline in cases and maybe loosening of some covid restrictions.

I say go for it

I have the same hope regarding the timeline (re: Oxford/JNJ). I've barely left the house since this all began (logged less than 50 miles on my vehicle), but we did take a family trip back in September. Rented a cabin and picked up food at the grocery so we were able to spend the trip in the cabin and doing outdoor activities. Seems like renting houses/cabins has been the popular go-to within my group at work. Hope you are able to make both trips.

PS - I think I've read every page of this thread and kudos to you, I think you are the only one who has been brave enough to stick it out while most of us just lurk now

 

[Polkadotdress]

We get it. You want this pandemic to end (like we all do) but you want others to bear the cost and inconvenience. Unfortunately, we're all in this together and we all need to do our part.

This so eloquently summarizes where we're at. Totally using this verbatim as some of my non-believing friends are still "keeping up a good fight" of misinformation on social media.

 

[GoofGoof]

I have the same hope regarding the timeline (re: Oxford/JNJ). I've barely left the house since this all began (logged less than 50 miles on my vehicle), but we did take a family trip back in September. Rented a cabin and picked up food at the grocery so we were able to spend the trip in the cabin and doing outdoor activities. Seems like renting houses/cabins has been the popular go-to within my group at work. Hope you are able to make both trips.

PS - I think I've read every page of this thread and kudos to you, I think you are the only one who has been brave enough to stick it out while most of us just lurk now

I enjoy hearing multiple points of view and how people look at various situations. The vaccine news is great across the board. Something we can all agree on for once. It’s realistic to now say we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I just hope people can hold out a little longer and we don’t have too many people looking at this like a green light to do whatever they want. We’re at least still 6 months away from the majority of people having access to the vaccine.

 

[Jenny72]

I'm a little surprised (although I probably shouldn't be) that the coming vaccines aren't making people more willing to stay home. Now that there's a light at the end of the tunnel, I'm making plans for summer to make up for this past year. We'll do Thanksgiving/Christmas with family in July. Maybe birthdays too: Why not be goofy about it after this horrible experience? We'll have a big vacation and open a bottle of champagne. In the meantime, it's Zoom and online gaming with friends and family. I don't really get it if people rush to travel now, when things could be at least a little better in just a few months (for instance, if grandparents could be vaccinated).

On the other hand, it's been a completely insane year and maybe people just don't have capacity for sacrifice and waiting anymore. I just wish they'd dig a little deeper and dream some dreams for post-vaccines.