Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[BrianLo]

Adjusting for population... France posted a number of new cases today that would be similar to the US posting 295k... the other day Belgium posted a number that would be similar to US posting 681k!

I do think this lends credence to the US being susceptible to worse numbers (although it’s too large to ever be coordinated enough to post Belgium like numbers country wide). Certainly another doubling (200k) is theoretically feasible.

It also dashes the misplaced hope that anywhere has achieved enough Penetrance to prevent a huge second wave. Belgium up until recently carried the worst death rates of any country (excluding tiny island nations) and is seeing their death count return towards the previous peak.

Already over 175k cases today... Amazing how quickly this is escalating. My "theoretically feasible" prediction is now probably happening next week. I almost want to say that ridiculous 295k a day is feasible if every state continues their upward trends in synch.

Regardless of what happens now, the rolling case count average has more than tripled from a number that was producing reliably 700ish deaths per day. It seems increasingly likely that the Spring death toll peak record will also be surpassed.

 

[JoeCamel]

Already over 175k cases today... Amazing how quickly this is escalating. My "theoretically feasible" prediction is now probably happening next week. I almost want to say that ridiculous 295k a day is feasible if every state continues their upward trends in synch.

Regardless of what happens now, the rolling case count average has more than tripled from a number that was producing reliably 700ish deaths per day. It seems increasingly likely that the Spring death toll peak record will also be surpassed.

Hold on to your hats folks, it's gonna be a wild ride......

 

[yensidtlaw1969]

When looked at in aggregate then yes. I did a calculation a long time ago in this thread showing the total quality years taken from the surviving population vs. the total years taken by those who are killed based on the average age for the deaths. The calculation shows that every severe restriction period removes far more quality time from people who won't be killed by COVID than it takes total time from the people it kills early.

"The greater good" doesn't mean doing what is best for every single person on earth. It means that when taken as a whole, you are doing the best for everybody on average.

This was disgusting to read. You really should be ashamed.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Did he have to so publicly call out NY and Cuomo? Or could he have left that out, and let the details play out behind the scenes and spoken more generally?

Toddler gonna toddle

Already over 175k cases today... Amazing how quickly this is escalating. My "theoretically feasible" prediction is now probably happening next week. I almost want to say that ridiculous 295k a day is feasible if every state continues their upward trends in synch.

Regardless of what happens now, the rolling case count average has more than tripled from a number that was producing reliably 700ish deaths per day. It seems increasingly likely that the Spring death toll peak record will also be surpassed.

Hold on to your hats folks, it's gonna be a wild ride......

193,000 and counting...the day is still young.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This was disgusting to read. You really should be ashamed.

...been swallowing his adidias for 6+ months.

For instance: Florida had it “managed” in April.

As evidenced by this fun graph:

 

[DisneyTransport]

You think the US has never changed? Fascinating.....

... its hard to tell through words on a disney forum, so if your being serious about what you said in the above quote, i was being sarcastic with my reply. Hence the /s. And the role eye emoji.

 

[DisneyTransport]

oh no he was definitely being a child about calling Cuomo out, but NY will get its vaccine.

Didnt the great supreme leader dj trump say something about Democrat states being the ones who are causing the spread of covid too? (Thus implying dems are the dumb ones spreading covid) Not tonight, but a week or so ago? That press conference was a joke today. “China virus”, NY wont get the vaccine because they dont like me.... ugh can we not act like children? And be professional and serious?

 

[JoeCamel]

Didnt the great supreme leader dj trump say something about Democrat states being the ones who are causing the spread of covid too? (Thus implying dems are the dumb ones spreading covid) Not tonight, but a week or so ago? That press conference was a joke today. “China virus”, NY wont get the vaccine because they dont like me.... ugh can we not act like children? And be professional and serious?

66 days...

 

[hopemax]

Already over 175k cases today... Amazing how quickly this is escalating. My "theoretically feasible" prediction is now probably happening next week. I almost want to say that ridiculous 295k a day is feasible if every state continues their upward trends in synch.

Regardless of what happens now, the rolling case count average has more than tripled from a number that was producing reliably 700ish deaths per day. It seems increasingly likely that the Spring death toll peak record will also be surpassed.

It’s like people don’t understand what exponential looks like. Or if you wait to see the exponential before doing something that it gets bad...quickly. But we always knew people had trouble with math.

And to think we are still 3 weeks away from the dying.

 

[JoeCamel]

It’s like people don’t understand what exponential looks like. Or if you wait to see the exponential before doing something that it gets bad...quickly. But we always knew people had trouble with math.

And to think we are still 3 weeks away from the dying.

Its not the death count that is the story to me but out of that many cases a portion will end up in the hospital and those heros working for so long to provide aid will have a flood at the door.
Remember the "please help avoid overwhelming the healthcare system"? Worked pretty good but the healthcare system is severely strained now and to hit it with a larger wave over the next few weeks will test our resolve to the limit.
Please think of others and help stop the spread, it will be a month before your efforts show proof so be patient.
Wear the damn mask and keep your slime to yourself!

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Its not the death count that is the story to me but out of that many cases a portion will end up in the hospital and those heros working for so long to provide aid will have a flood at the door.
Remember the "please help avoid overwhelming the healthcare system"? Worked pretty good but the healthcare system is severely strained now and to hit it with a larger wave over the next few weeks will test our resolve to the limit.
Please think of others and help stop the spread, it will be a month before your efforts show proof so be patient.
Wear the damn mask and keep your slime to yourself!

What's scary to me is the "flatten the curve" period was during a time when maybe 4 or 5 states were really hurting. Now over half of the states are hurting.

 

[JoeCamel]

What's scary to me is the "flatten the curve" period was during a time when maybe 4 or 5 states were really hurting. Now over half of the states are hurting.

Right, the hospitals can't shift patients, PPE is tight and the patients keep coming in the door since everyone has the same concerns. We had predictions of a very scary winter and it looks like we are getting it.
I so hope I have some immunity from March, I'm thinking I will have a bunch of sick people around my area.

 

[Nubs70]

Right, the hospitals can't shift patients, PPE is tight and the patients keep coming in the door since everyone has the same concerns. We had predictions of a very scary winter and it looks like we are getting it.
I so hope I have some immunity from March, I'm thinking I will have a bunch of sick people around my area.

It is blowing up. Infection rates are 5x what they were this spring at peak of shutdowns. Hospital is only taking in transfers from in network regional facilities.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Didnt the great supreme leader dj trump say something about Democrat states being the ones who are causing the spread of covid too? (Thus implying dems are the dumb ones spreading covid) Not tonight, but a week or so ago? That press conference was a joke today. “China virus”, NY wont get the vaccine because they dont like me.... ugh can we not act like children? And be professional and serious?

If you’ll notice my handy chart above...

The top 5 in cases are ranked 2,1,4,3 and 5 in population....

But if one were to go down it...they’d notice the ones with more deer than people by a lot have the highest percentages.

 

[DisneyCane]

This was disgusting to read. You really should be ashamed.

That's your opinion. I'm not ashamed in the least bit. Out of curiosity, are you equally disgusted by Zeke Emanuel's opinion about health care for people over 75?

...been swallowing his adidias for 6+ months.

For instance: Florida had it “managed” in April.

As evidenced by this fun graph:

View attachment 512726

Can you do me a favor and point me to the post where I said anything about Florida having things under control in April? You keep attributing this quote to me at every opportunity but I'm pretty sure I never said that. In April I was vehemently opposed to the lockdowns we were under in Florida and I'd been saying the same thing about the age of the fatalities that disgusted my new friend above. If I remember going back pretty far I said that there wasn't any way to control the virus without draconian measures but I am perplexed as to when I said Florida had things under control or implied it. This supposed statement by me is getting to be like the Sarah Palin quote that she could see Russia from her house that she never said and was from a Tina Fey impersonation. I could be going senile so if I am, please point to where I said this.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Its not the death count that is the story to me but out of that many cases a portion will end up in the hospital and those heros working for so long to provide aid will have a flood at the door.
Remember the "please help avoid overwhelming the healthcare system"? Worked pretty good but the healthcare system is severely strained now and to hit it with a larger wave over the next few weeks will test our resolve to the limit.
Please think of others and help stop the spread, it will be a month before your efforts show proof so be patient.
Wear the damn mask and keep your slime to yourself!

A great article that outlines the current/impending health crisis from the perspective of health care providers.

‘No One Is Listening to Us’

More people than ever are hospitalized with COVID-19. Health-care workers can’t go on like this.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[techgeek]

Can you do me a favor and point me to the post where I said anything about Florida having things under control in April? You keep attributing this quote to me at every opportunity but I'm pretty sure I never said that. In April I was vehemently opposed to the lockdowns we were under in Florida and I'd been saying the same thing about the age of the fatalities that disgusted my new friend above. If I remember going back pretty far I said that there wasn't any way to control the virus without draconian measures but I am perplexed as to when I said Florida had things under control or implied it. This supposed statement by me is getting to be like the Sarah Palin quote that she could see Russia from her house that she never said and was from a Tina Fey impersonation. I could be going senile so if I am, please point to where I said this.

April 7th:

Look at Florida's new case curve. It has definitely flattened over the last few days. The number of tests per day is increasing and the percentage of positive tests is decreasing. If Florida follows Italy's curve the new cases per day should start to decrease noticably in a week or so.

June 5th:

You need to look at trends. There is a clear downward trend in daily deaths in the USA. By the time Disney opens in a little over a month, it should be down to below 500 deaths per day if the same trend continues. I don't think it will get to 0 by 8/4 like the original IHME predicted. 500 per day is only 10 per state per day. If the trend continues after WDW is back open then Disney has nothing to worry about.

July 18th:

The trends seem to show that Florida is roughly returning to the way it was at the beginning of the pandemic. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach (in order) being the biggest problems and the rest of the state doing relatively well. Currently all are at a "worse" level than before but it seems to be trending back to that scenario.

If this is the case, I don't see any reason to adjust WDW operations based on statewide data if the bad data is 200 miles away. Even now around 1/4 of the new daily cases are in Miami-Dade. Like I said above, the way the parks are operating, it is highly unlikely for people from the hot areas to spread it to others at WDW.

July 24th:

I still predict that by the middle of August there will be a clear decline in daily cases in Florida and it will return to the steady state that existed prior to the recent spike by the end of August. I think it will happen because a high enough percentage of the population in the hot spots like Miami-Dade will have resistance that it will help to slow the spread significantly like what I believe happened in the northeast hot spots which is why they aren't getting a resurgence now. I don't think young adults in NYC are avoiding private parties any more than they were in Florida.

 

[Kevin_W]

It's been a could weeks since the European countries started locking down again. I was curious, but it looks like it is helping (https://nypost.com/2020/11/13/new-covid-cases-plummet-in-france-amid-second-lockdown-week/)

Although some articles seem to say that many are flouting the rules. At least enough are following the recommendations to make a difference. Death rates are still really, really high.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Again, if the spread isn't happening at WDW on any large scale, why should they have it on their conscience. Again, it's the "how can you do anything enjoyable when people are dying" attitude. If there was significant spread traced to WDW being open, then it would become a moral decision for them.

Because believe it or not, compassion for other people does exist.

and...guilt from lack of business...but hopefully its more compassion.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

It's been a could weeks since the European countries started locking down again. I was curious, but it looks like it is helping (https://nypost.com/2020/11/13/new-covid-cases-plummet-in-france-amid-second-lockdown-week/)

Although some articles seem to say that many are flouting the rules. At least enough are following the recommendations to make a difference. Death rates are still really, really high.

It is helping in Europe but its so frustrating because Americans will never accept that level of shutdown.