Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020

[GoofGoof]

Travel restrictions to/from Florida should be lift relatively soon looking at the numbers, likely this month.

Hopefully Florida will reach this in the next week or so, right now it is around 2350. A big number is about to roll off the weekly so if new positives test stay down this week it should meet the 2100 number. FL has already hit the <5% number, sitting at 3.75% for the 7 day average and 14 day at 4.17%. Tue/wed will be a big tell as that is when they tend to run a lot of data

I thought it would have been sooner but I think the numbers are right near a baseline for testing. I underestimated the number of positive tests in asymptomatic or non sick people that came from schools and unis. Now that schools, colleges have been back for a month or so and numbers still have stayed steady or even lowered a bit, unless there is a outbreak at a LTC facility or prison etc. I don't see the new positive test numbers raising or dropping significantly.

Hospitalizations have also hit a baseline it seems after dropping around 80%. So I don't think there will be much change there. However the fact the CLI continues to drop is a really good sign going forward. Good thing is the hospital resources/healthcare situation, which is why we are doing all this in the first place, is in a very good place.

Still thinking that FL will be off of the travel quarantine list by the end of October? I would say that seems highly unlikely now

 

[Ldno]

I just talked to a friend from South America who told me they have to do a covid test 4 Days before their flight back to their country. The thing is a lot of tourists don’t know this until they board their flight and end up missing it. I’m sure the increase in case will double this, because a lot of countries just recently opened up their borders.

 

[giantgolfer]

Still thinking that FL will be off of the travel quarantine list by the end of October? I would say that seems highly unlikely now

He meant October 2021, maybe?

 

[GoofGoof]

He meant October 2021, maybe?

I think he was being sincere, and I actually admire his optimism, but the writing was on the wall that a removal of all restrictions in FL (specifically on things that caused a spike this summer) would result in higher cases. Unfortunately we can’t just wish this virus away or make it actually be true just by saying it repeatedly.

 

[legwand77]

I think he was being sincere, and I actually admire his optimism, but the writing was on the wall that a removal of all restrictions in FL (specifically on things that caused a spike this summer) would result in higher cases. Unfortunately we can’t just wish this virus away or make it actually be true just by saying it repeatedly.

Yes looking slim. I do think we have hit the floor with positive tests with the amount of testing that is being done, I doubt it will go much lower. did not take that into effect that testing has ramped up some much. The restrictions are really not based on the virus as much, other elements in play.

In Florida the number of active cases are on a steady decline as are deaths. C19 hospitalizations posted the lowest ever yesterday. Bottom line in Florida fewer people are getting sicker and less people dying while positive test are going up. This has all occurred when many people were saying that the loosing of all restrictions in Florida over (three weeks ago now) was going to cause just the opposite. Also same with schools being open, sports played etc etc and for that matter the parks being open.

Also not "wishing" the virus away, would if I could, just looking at the actual data, independent of predictions predicated on fear

ETA:

Also it appears the parks continue to get more crowded every week. Unless Disney does something about the lines and other other restrictions , hours etc. they are going to be in rough shape, because it is becoming an unpleasant experience. I have been to the park a few times since the reopen and enjoyed it but I won't return now until they make changes as it is not worth it at all right now, even as a AP holder.

 

[giantgolfer]

The spin continues....

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes looking slim. I do think we have hit the floor with positive tests with the amount of testing that is being done, I doubt it will go much lower. did not take that into effect that testing has ramped up some much. The restrictions are really not based on the virus as much, other elements in play.

In Florida the number of active cases are on a steady decline as are deaths. C19 hospitalizations posted the lowest ever yesterday. Bottom line in Florida fewer people are getting sicker and less people dying while positive test are going up. This has all occurred when many people were saying that the loosing of all restrictions in Florida over (three weeks ago now) was going to cause just the opposite. Also same with schools being open, sports played etc etc and for that matter the parks being open.

Also not "wishing" the virus away, would if I could, just looking at the actual data, independent of predictions predicated on fear

ETA:

Also it appears the parks continue to get more crowded every week. Unless Disney does something about the lines and other other restrictions , hours etc. they are going to be in rough shape, because it is becoming an unpleasant experience. I have been to the park a few times since the reopen and enjoyed it but I won't return now until they make changes as it is not worth it at all right now, even as a AP holder.

I can’t follow your logic. Simple stats:
Last 7 days daily avg new cases 2,924 with a 4.5% positive
Previous 7 days daily avg cases 2,557 with a 4.0% positive
That’s an almost 15% increase in positives week over week. Overall testing was up 1.2% week over week. There’s no way to say increased positives is just due to more testing. The testing is relatively flat but cases are starting to rise again. The only explanation is more sick people overall. I see no evidence of cases on a steady decline. That was true back in August, but things have definitely changed and not for the better.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Still thinking that FL will be off of the travel quarantine list by the end of October? I would say that seems highly unlikely now

It was unlikely months ago! Sorry, I just... It's not you, Goof. I'm just so tired. SO tired.

 

[JoeCamel]

I can’t follow your logic. Simple stats:
Last 7 days daily avg new cases 2,924 with a 4.5% positive
Previous 7 days daily avg cases 2,557 with a 4.0% positive
That’s an almost 15% increase in positives week over week. Overall testing was up 1.2% week over week. There’s no way to say increased positives is just due to more testing. The testing is relatively flat but cases are starting to rise again. The only explanation is more sick people overall. I see no evidence of cases on a steady decline. That was true back in August, but things have definitely changed and not for the better.

I couldn't get past the lowest C19 hospitalizations ever. Like lower than January?

 

[GoofGoof]

It was unlikely months ago! Sorry, I just... It's not you, Goof. I'm just so tired. SO tired.

There was a period in August where it looked like the trend was improving greatly to the point I was optimistic that the positives could drop below 2,100 at some point but that was before all the restrictions were pulled. I’m not sure we will ever get there at this point without a vaccine. I think that’s the plan right now.

 

[GoofGoof]

I couldn't get past the lowest C19 hospitalizations ever. Like lower than January?

I wasn‘t focusing on hospitalizations since that isn’t a metric used for travel restrictions. It’s good for the community if less people are hospitalized obviously, but not relevant to getting FL off of the travel lists and getting more tourists to WDW.

 

[legwand77]

I couldn't get past the lowest C19 hospitalizations ever. Like lower than January?

For Florida, which we are discussing, yesterday was the lowest C19 hospitalizations since the breakout this summer, so yes

 

[legwand77]

There was a period in August where it looked like the trend was improving greatly to the point I was optimistic that the positives could drop below 2,100 at some point but that was before all the restrictions were pulled. I’m not sure we will ever get there at this point without a vaccine. I think that’s the plan right now.

Yes, I agree we hit a base line due to the amount testing amounts

 

[legwand77]

I can’t follow your logic. Simple stats:
Last 7 days daily avg new cases 2,924 with a 4.5% positive
Previous 7 days daily avg cases 2,557 with a 4.0% positive
That’s an almost 15% increase in positives week over week. Overall testing was up 1.2% week over week. There’s no way to say increased positives is just due to more testing. The testing is relatively flat but cases are starting to rise again. The only explanation is more sick people overall. I see no evidence of cases on a steady decline. That was true back in August, but things have definitely changed and not for the better.

It has been fairly flat for the past month or so.

look at this week , but it plays out over the past month

10/15 - 74,608 tests - 3,391 + results
10/16 - 73,000 tests - 3999 +
10/17 - 50874 tests - 2486 +
10/18 - 35537 tests - 1786 +

More tests equals more positive results.

 

[legwand77]

The NE travel restriction issue is not that important to me, obviously and rightly so more for you and we have gone over that point, so no need to discuss that again. Right now Disney is plently busy with Disney's own requirements and doesn't need the NE to lift their restrictions.

The big issue that is and will occur is with more people willing to travel and traveling, Disney is going to have to adjust something because the porduct they have right now is not sustainable as it is an unpleasant experience. This is evident on these forums and social media etc. What they are doing is not working right now.

 

[JoeCamel]

For Florida, which we are discussing, yesterday was the lowest C19 hospitalizations since the breakout this summer, so yes

So yes - means no they weren't. Stop trying to twist so much, you will freeze like that

 

[GoofGoof]

It has been fairly flat for the past month or so.

look at this week , but it plays out over the past month

10/15 - 74,608 tests - 3,391 + results
10/16 - 73,000 tests - 3999 +
10/17 - 50874 tests - 2486 +
10/18 - 35537 tests - 1786 +

More tests equals more positive results.

Of course the more you test the more positive results , but the number of people sick doesn‘t change based on how many are tested or put another way testing less may result in finding less positive people each day but that doesn’t change the fact that people are still sick. Less sick people testing positive means more people walking around in the community spreading the virus which will result in an increase in actual sick people.

The NE travel restriction issue is not that important to me, obviously and rightly so more for you and we have gone over that point, so no need to discuss that again. Right now Disney is plently busy with Disney's own requirements and doesn't need the NE to lift their restrictions.

The big issue that is and will occur is with more people willing to travel and traveling, Disney is going to have to adjust something because the porduct they have right now is not sustainable as it is an unpleasant experience. This is evident on these forums and social media etc. What they are doing is not working right now.

I get that from your personal prospective travel restrictions don’t matter. They aren’t restricting you so who cares. From the perspective of TWDC its still a big problem. Not just travel restrictions but the overall lack of desire for many people to travel. WDW may be “crowded“ with locals on APs right now but that’s not where the big profits come from. They have the same issue that we’ve talked about since the summer. The out of state tourists aren’t coming back at the rate they would want. That‘s unlikely to change any time soon. Without those tourist dollars it’s hard to justify extra costs. Aside from the economic impact Disney is also waiting for an Improvement in Covid stats to even consider relaxing restrictions or making a meaningful increase in capacity. Not looking good. Praying for the vaccine to work and enough people to be willing to take it.

Now there’s talk of delaying construction on new projects like Tron and GoTG into 2022 which is sad for park fans but also a sign they don’t expect a turnaround any time soon. I was hoping to see a major uptick in Spring 2021 but hearing stuff like that makes me concerned Disney could be thinking more like 2022 for the recovery.

 

[legwand77]

So yes - means no they weren't. Stop trying to twist so much, you will freeze like that

Twist? they are the lowest C19 hospitalizations since the beginning , of course they are not lower than before Covid. smh

 

[JoeCamel]

Twist? they are the lowest C19 hospitalizations since the beginning , of course they are not lower than before Covid. smh

Once again -p "ever". Your words.

 

[legwand77]

Of course the more you test the more positive results , but the number of people sick doesn‘t change based on how many are tested or put another way testing less may result in finding less positive people each day but that doesn’t change the fact that people are still sick. Less sick people testing positive means more people walking around in the community spreading the virus which will result in an increase in actual sick people.


I get that from your personal prospective travel restrictions don’t matter. They aren’t restricting you so who cares. From the perspective of TWDC its still a big problem. Not just travel restrictions but the overall lack of desire for many people to travel. WDW may be “crowded“ with locals on APs right now but that’s not where the big profits come from. They have the same issue that we’ve talked about since the summer. The out of state tourists aren’t coming back at the rate they would want. That‘s unlikely to change any time soon. Without those tourist dollars it’s hard to justify extra costs. Aside from the economic impact Disney is also waiting for an Improvement in Covid stats to even consider relaxing restrictions or making a meaningful increase in capacity. Not looking good. Praying for the vaccine to work and enough people to be willing to take it.

Now there’s talk of delaying construction on new projects like Tron and GoTG into 2022 which is sad for park fans but also a sign they don’t expect a turnaround any time soon. I was hoping to see a major uptick in Spring 2021 but hearing stuff like that makes me concerned Disney could be thinking more like 2022 for the recovery.

Yes, I am/was just talking about the data, run more tests more positive numbers and that affects your restricted travel. The travel restrictions are not based on the unknown number of people who might be C19+ via a PCR test.

Your travel restirctions don't matter as much to Disney as they are very busy already by all accounts here, the restrictions that are holding back Disney are their own and not the few NE states. If you think it is all locals and AP at Disney, you would be very surprised.