Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I couldn't get past the lowest C19 hospitalizations ever. Like lower than January?
I wasn‘t focusing on hospitalizations since that isn’t a metric used for travel restrictions. It’s good for the community if less people are hospitalized obviously, but not relevant to getting FL off of the travel lists and getting more tourists to WDW.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
There was a period in August where it looked like the trend was improving greatly to the point I was optimistic that the positives could drop below 2,100 at some point but that was before all the restrictions were pulled. I’m not sure we will ever get there at this point without a vaccine. I think that’s the plan right now.
Yes, I agree we hit a base line due to the amount testing amounts
 
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legwand77

Well-Known Member
I can’t follow your logic. Simple stats:
Last 7 days daily avg new cases 2,924 with a 4.5% positive
Previous 7 days daily avg cases 2,557 with a 4.0% positive
That’s an almost 15% increase in positives week over week. Overall testing was up 1.2% week over week. There’s no way to say increased positives is just due to more testing. The testing is relatively flat but cases are starting to rise again. The only explanation is more sick people overall. I see no evidence of cases on a steady decline. That was true back in August, but things have definitely changed and not for the better.

It has been fairly flat for the past month or so.

look at this week , but it plays out over the past month

10/15 - 74,608 tests - 3,391 + results
10/16 - 73,000 tests - 3999 +
10/17 - 50874 tests - 2486 +
10/18 - 35537 tests - 1786 +

More tests equals more positive results.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
The NE travel restriction issue is not that important to me, obviously and rightly so more for you and we have gone over that point, so no need to discuss that again. Right now Disney is plently busy with Disney's own requirements and doesn't need the NE to lift their restrictions.

The big issue that is and will occur is with more people willing to travel and traveling, Disney is going to have to adjust something because the porduct they have right now is not sustainable as it is an unpleasant experience. This is evident on these forums and social media etc. What they are doing is not working right now.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
It has been fairly flat for the past month or so.

look at this week , but it plays out over the past month

10/15 - 74,608 tests - 3,391 + results
10/16 - 73,000 tests - 3999 +
10/17 - 50874 tests - 2486 +
10/18 - 35537 tests - 1786 +

More tests equals more positive results.
Of course the more you test the more positive results , but the number of people sick doesn‘t change based on how many are tested or put another way testing less may result in finding less positive people each day but that doesn’t change the fact that people are still sick. Less sick people testing positive means more people walking around in the community spreading the virus which will result in an increase in actual sick people.

The NE travel restriction issue is not that important to me, obviously and rightly so more for you and we have gone over that point, so no need to discuss that again. Right now Disney is plently busy with Disney's own requirements and doesn't need the NE to lift their restrictions.

The big issue that is and will occur is with more people willing to travel and traveling, Disney is going to have to adjust something because the porduct they have right now is not sustainable as it is an unpleasant experience. This is evident on these forums and social media etc. What they are doing is not working right now.
I get that from your personal prospective travel restrictions don’t matter. They aren’t restricting you so who cares. From the perspective of TWDC its still a big problem. Not just travel restrictions but the overall lack of desire for many people to travel. WDW may be “crowded“ with locals on APs right now but that’s not where the big profits come from. They have the same issue that we’ve talked about since the summer. The out of state tourists aren’t coming back at the rate they would want. That‘s unlikely to change any time soon. Without those tourist dollars it’s hard to justify extra costs. Aside from the economic impact Disney is also waiting for an Improvement in Covid stats to even consider relaxing restrictions or making a meaningful increase in capacity. Not looking good. Praying for the vaccine to work and enough people to be willing to take it.

Now there’s talk of delaying construction on new projects like Tron and GoTG into 2022 which is sad for park fans but also a sign they don’t expect a turnaround any time soon. I was hoping to see a major uptick in Spring 2021 but hearing stuff like that makes me concerned Disney could be thinking more like 2022 for the recovery.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Of course the more you test the more positive results , but the number of people sick doesn‘t change based on how many are tested or put another way testing less may result in finding less positive people each day but that doesn’t change the fact that people are still sick. Less sick people testing positive means more people walking around in the community spreading the virus which will result in an increase in actual sick people.


I get that from your personal prospective travel restrictions don’t matter. They aren’t restricting you so who cares. From the perspective of TWDC its still a big problem. Not just travel restrictions but the overall lack of desire for many people to travel. WDW may be “crowded“ with locals on APs right now but that’s not where the big profits come from. They have the same issue that we’ve talked about since the summer. The out of state tourists aren’t coming back at the rate they would want. That‘s unlikely to change any time soon. Without those tourist dollars it’s hard to justify extra costs. Aside from the economic impact Disney is also waiting for an Improvement in Covid stats to even consider relaxing restrictions or making a meaningful increase in capacity. Not looking good. Praying for the vaccine to work and enough people to be willing to take it.

Now there’s talk of delaying construction on new projects like Tron and GoTG into 2022 which is sad for park fans but also a sign they don’t expect a turnaround any time soon. I was hoping to see a major uptick in Spring 2021 but hearing stuff like that makes me concerned Disney could be thinking more like 2022 for the recovery.

Yes, I am/was just talking about the data, run more tests more positive numbers and that affects your restricted travel. The travel restrictions are not based on the unknown number of people who might be C19+ via a PCR test.

Your travel restirctions don't matter as much to Disney as they are very busy already by all accounts here, the restrictions that are holding back Disney are their own and not the few NE states. If you think it is all locals and AP at Disney, you would be very surprised.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Yes, I am/was just talking about the data, run more tests more positive numbers and that affects your restricted travel. The travel restrictions are not based on the unknown number of people who might be C19+ via a PCR test.

Your travel restirctions don't matter as much to Disney as they are very busy already by all accounts here, the restrictions that are holding back Disney are their own and not the few NE states. If you think it is all locals and AP at Disney, you would be very surprised.
I never said all, but the fact remains that over half the hotel rooms are moth balled. There’s no way to say crowds are back and it’s out of state tourists driving it. The increase in crowds at the parks started around the time they lifted the AP restrictions. It’s reasonable to assume a large portion of the increase in crowds are local AP holders or people driving in from neighboring states. Remember we have TSA stats showing airfare still running 30-40% what it was last year for same day. The masses aren’t flying yet.

 

giantgolfer

Well-Known Member
. If you think it is all locals and AP at Disney, you would be very surprised.

I find it funny that you think you have ANY idea whether or not someone is an AP/ local or a traveling resort guest.

Do you talk to every single guest when you are there and ask them? Serious question. I’ll hang up and listen....
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
I never said all, but the fact remains that over half the hotel rooms are moth balled. There’s no way to say crowds are back and it’s out of state tourists driving it. The increase in crowds at the parks started around the time they lifted the AP restrictions. It’s reasonable to assume a large portion of the increase in crowds are local AP holders or people driving in from neighboring states. Remember we have TSA stats showing airfare still running 30-40% what it was last year for same day. The masses aren’t flying yet.

The TSA gate traffic is over 1M for the first time yesterday and not even a holiday weekend. I remember when a month or so ago when it was only 500-600k range. Note this is also without any business travel or international travel. That alone would be around 20+%

Disney has set their own restrictions at 25% per Chapek. No need to open rooms when they can't get into the parks. People are traveling to the parks that is not an assumption at this point. Even saw a trip report recently of someone flying down from Pittsburgh.
 
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JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
The TSA gate traffic is over 1M for the first time yesterday and not even a holiday weekend. I remember when a month or so ago when it was 60% off same day. Note this is also without any business travel or international travel. That alone would be around 20+%

Disney has set their own restrictions at 25% per Chapek. No need to open rooms when they can't get into the parks. People are traveling to the parks that is not an assumption at this point. Even saw a trip report recently of someone flying down from Pittsburgh.
1M is ~ 40% of normal. This is not surging back
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The TSA gate traffic is over 1M for the first time yesterday and not even a holiday weekend. I remember when a month or so ago when it was only 500-600k range. Note this is also without any business travel or international travel. That alone would be around 20+%

Disney has set their own restrictions at 25% per Chapek. No need to open rooms when they can't get into the parks. People are traveling to the parks that is not an assumption at this point. Even saw a trip report recently of someone flying down from Pittsburgh.
Air travel is certainly up from previous points in the pandemic, but the point is it’s nowhere near back to normal or in the context of this discussion nowhere near where it needs to be to help Disney. I get that some people are flying to go to WDW now. I have a friend who is going in about a month from around me, but that’s anecdotal and not relevant to the need for a large number of tourists to want to travel.

I think Disney would love to increase park capacity but the problem is not just guest demand (which is a problem) it’s also concerns with current case counts and large crowds. If the situation on the ground was improving they may be more motivated to relax some rules. Instead they are investing in more signs explaining mask rules. On the attendance front, the minute Disney starts turning away tourists who want to stay in their resorts because the parks are sold out they will start restricting AP holders again. The only reason limits were removed is they weren’t hitting capacity anyway. They won’t forgo “super profits” from out of state tourists staying in the hotels and eating most meals on property.
 

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