Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Quick note, I just edited the post you quoted. Several posts surrounding what I wrote were deleted. I didn't mean that to sound so cold.

This year has had ups and downs for me as well, professionally and personally. It’s certainly not the year I had planned but in my view it’s only a waste of a year if I choose not to learn anything or get anything accomplished.

You are 100% right

 

[sullyinMT]

As a reminder: things get out of control very quickly when it goes over 1

Florida Rt

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.

rt.live

Thanks for linking. I don’t think they’ll continue the trend now that people have been given free reign to act a fool, just showing that Florida can and has in the past get the R value down.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thanks for linking. I don’t think they’ll continue the trend now that people have been given free reign to act a fool, just showing that Florida can and has in the past get the R value down.

You nailed that.

As far as travel, Disney, layoffs goes...they are NEVER going to get back up the hill until the perception is changed. It won’t happen.

So please...when anyone wants to complain about why there aren’t more AP slots (you know who you are...)...jump in your car, drive to Publix or Walmart...and look and see how the customers are acting.

I’m having a hard time dumbing this down anymore for the holdouts.

 

[easyrowrdw]

It looks like the highest % positive over the summer in California was 8% in mid-July. The average over the last month has been 3.21%. It's certainly better than Florida. The R value in California has been below 1 for three months.

I certainly understand Disney's frustration with what's happening in California. Even if conditions didn't allow for reopening, you'd think officials could at least have provided the guidance. How long has it been?

 

[DCBaker]

 

[MisterPenguin]

As a reminder: things get out of control very quickly when it goes over 1

Florida Rt

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.

rt.live

Ya know, at first I was taken in by these type of Rn charts, especially with NJ's.

But then I realized, "Hey, waitasec... that's not *the* Rn for the virus. That's just the *effective* Rn based on whether the number infected in the state was going up or down."

So basically, it's just the slope of the 7 week trend line (the first derivative for you math nerds).

For me, it's more informative to look at the 7 week trend line because then you can see the historical absolute values along with the current trend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ya know, at first I was taken in by these type of Rn charts, especially with NJ's.

But then I realized, "Hey, waitasec... that's not *the* Rn for the virus. That's just the *effective* Rn based on whether the number infected in the state was going up or down."

So basically, it's just the slope of the 7 week trend line (the first derivative for you math nerds).

For me, it's more informative to look at the 7 week trend line because then you can see the historical absolute values along with the current trend.

Granted...I just think it’s the closest thing we have to “predictive”

In universe of chaos...I look for SOME tools that predict order.

 

[sullyinMT]

Ya know, at first I was taken in by these type of Rn charts, especially with NJ's.

But then I realized, "Hey, waitasec... that's not *the* Rn for the virus. That's just the *effective* Rn based on whether the number infected in the state was going up or down."

So basically, it's just the slope of the 7 week trend line (the first derivative for you math nerds).

For me, it's more informative to look at the 7 week trend line because then you can see the historical absolute values along with the current trend.

Yes, even the site’s FAQ goes into some of the flaws of their modeling. It does, however, provide a decent real-ish time idea of what the virus is doing as a snapshot in time.
Perhaps more importantly for those who can’t or won’t realize that the population distribution in, say, ND is way different than in CA or FL, it shows them how 500cases/day is way worse than 2.3k or 3.2k respectively even if none of them are super thrilling to see.
I’ve shown a few dopey friends this chart for Montana and explained our county bed situation. All of a sudden they understand why 80 cases a day is a big deal. So it’s at least a good layman’s tool.

 

[SamusAranX]

But if the average human misses out on 6 months (which is all it would have taken) on a 90
Year lifespan...I don’t know that’s a bad trade?

Limping along for 2 years at partial opening, no normalcy and constant bickering is not “more valuable”. My opinion

For sure, from that point of view I agree.
Unfortunately, humans are gonna human and disagree and hem and haw on what’s right. Hopefully one day soon things will get better.

edit: and it should be noted that even those countries who did a hard shutdown across the board are seeing spikes; so they have or continue enforcing existing precautions or even rolling back measures, which prolongs the distancing and mental costs. Not because it doesn’t work, it’s just this is a long haul journey that needs patience. Just my two cents

 

[disneycp]

But if the average human misses out on 6 months (which is all it would have taken) on a 90
Year lifespan...I don’t know that’s a bad trade?

Limping along for 2 years at partial opening, no normalcy and constant bickering is not “more valuable”. My opinion

Posts like this just make me roll my eyes.

People saying “this all would’ve been over with by now if we had just done what we were supposed to do!” are just ridiculous, IMO. As I’m sure others have pointed out, there are countries that had incredibly strict lockdowns and got their cases down to almost nothing and now they’re seeing spikes again and have to go right back into lockdown if they don’t want to waste all of their hard work.

It’s so easy to say “I would rather hunker down for six months and be done with it than be partially locked down for 2+ years.” Like yeah, duh, I agree with that, but that’s not really what would have happened. Let’s not base our entire plan for millions/billions of people on an ideology that only works in a perfect world with 100% compliance. It’s crazy and you’re only going to end up frustrated.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

It looks like the highest % positive over the summer in California was 8% in mid-July. The average over the last month has been 3.21%. It's certainly better than Florida. The R value in California has been below 1 for three months.

I certainly understand Disney's frustration with what's happening in California. Even if conditions didn't allow for reopening, you'd think officials could at least have provided the guidance. How long has it been?

LA still has an R over 1.

For social and activity purposes, the OC and LA may as well be one. Its not uncommon to stop at target in the OC one hour and then Ralphs in LA the next hour.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Posts like this just make me roll my eyes.

People saying “this all would’ve been over with by now if we had just done what we were supposed to do!” are just ridiculous, IMO. As I’m sure others have pointed out, there are countries that had incredibly strict lockdowns and got their cases down to almost nothing and now they’re seeing spikes again and have to go right back into lockdown if they don’t want to waste all of their hard work.

It’s so easy to say “I would rather hunker down for six months and be done with it than be partially locked down for 2+ years.” Like yeah, duh, I agree with that, but that’s not really what would have happened. Let’s not base our entire plan for millions/billions of people on an ideology that only works in a perfect world with 100% compliance. It’s crazy and you’re only going to end up frustrated.

So what’s your plan, “New person”?

I’m siting down. And I gotta he honest...I’d hold off on the “eye rolls” pending more wisdom.

...Maybe in another 6 months??

 

[Miss Bella]

Disney could charge anything they wanted to charge and only have shopping and dining open on Main Street and the left sections of the park. They’d make a profit on dole whip sales alone.

Oh yeah... and they’d have club 33 open. Why it’s currently closed and not making money is the biggest mystery of them all. Even if they didn’t want to let people into the park, open up a temporary club 33 in the Grand Californian.

Possibly. I'll admit I don't know anything about operating costs and profits margins etc.

 

[disneycp]

So what’s your plan, “New person”?

I’m siting down. And I gotta he honest...I’d hold off on the “eye rolls” pending more wisdom.

...Maybe in another 6 months??

I’ve re-read this multiple times and I have no idea what you’re trying to say here.

 

[SamusAranX]

I’ve re-read this multiple times and I have no idea what you’re trying to say here.

he is speaking British, that’s why

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’ve re-read this multiple times and I have no idea what you’re trying to say here.

You scoff...you eye roll...you’re “new”
(Which few tends to believe when somebody is highly opinionated in 5 posts)...and it says you’re a kid.

But I’m fair:
What is your PLAN to move forward. How do you want it to go for the great Wizard of Dis?
I’m listening.

 

[Miss Bella]

You scoff...you eye roll...you’re “new”
(Which few tends to believe when somebody is highly opinionated in 5 posts)...and it says you’re a kid.

But I’m fair:
What is your PLAN to move forward. How do you want it to go for the great Wizard of Dis?
I’m listening.

Not necessarily. There are several Disney chat rooms. Just being new to this one doesn’t mean your new to Disney forums. I have logins to 4 forums, but two of them I haven logged into in over a year.

 

[disneycp]

You scoff...you eye roll...you’re “new”
(Which few tends to believe when somebody is highly opinionated in 5 posts)...and it says you’re a kid.

But I’m fair:
What is your PLAN to move forward. How do you want it to go for the great Wizard of Dis?
I’m listening.

I’m a kid because I don’t have a thousand posts on an online forum? I’m starting to post now because I work for Disney and I’m interested in staying updated on the recent layoffs.

Ideally I think we should have allocated funds to specifically protecting high-risk individuals and their family members/caretakers instead of freaking out every time there is a case of a 20 year old college student getting COVID and asking everyone to stay home regardless of their circumstances. That might have been fine back in March, when we knew nothing about COVID, but I’m not really sure why we’re still trying to cling to it six months later.

There are people who still genuinely believe the death rate is something like 3% when it’s been established by multiple sources that, for most age groups, it’s a small fraction of that. I definitely would not be constantly terrifying everyone into thinking they’re going to die if they so much as leave their house, like the media is doing on a 24/7 cycle.

Deaths absolutely could have been prevented here - but not by treating everyone exactly the same and asking them to place their lives on hold until the virus is eradicated. Whatever your moral judgements are on that, you have to admit that compliance on the level needed was just never going to happen in the US.

 

[GoofGoof]

Posts like this just make me roll my eyes.

People saying “this all would’ve been over with by now if we had just done what we were supposed to do!” are just ridiculous, IMO. As I’m sure others have pointed out, there are countries that had incredibly strict lockdowns and got their cases down to almost nothing and now they’re seeing spikes again and have to go right back into lockdown if they don’t want to waste all of their hard work.

It’s so easy to say “I would rather hunker down for six months and be done with it than be partially locked down for 2+ years.” Like yeah, duh, I agree with that, but that’s not really what would have happened. Let’s not base our entire plan for millions/billions of people on an ideology that only works in a perfect world with 100% compliance. It’s crazy and you’re only going to end up frustrated.

Let’s start by having an actual plan and then go from there.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not necessarily. There are several Disney chat rooms. Just being new to this one doesn’t mean your new to Disney forums. I have logins to 4 forums, but two of them I haven logged into in over a year.

We’ve had a number of “boomerangs” that left in a huff in recent months that show up under different names. All hoaxers and faux “imagineering insiders”

But that doesn’t matter to me as much as a relevant thought/take. I play as long as we can get that.