Yes, however that is not proof. Those are positives test cases, not hospitalizations.
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Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020
- Thread starter durangojim
- Start date
UNCgolf
Well-Known Member
You misunderstood. The same number of people have Covid regardless of whether you test for it. Testing doesn't magically create new cases; it just identifies them.
Of course you are going to identify more cases if you test 100,000 instead of 10,000, but that's all. If you only test 10,000, those cases are still out there, you just don't know about them.
Right. I’m not the one saying more tests means more positives means OMG!
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I’m saying that there is ZERO correlation between the number of tests and the number of cases out there.
You can follow along here...I know you can do it.
All the increase in testing shows is a more accurate depiction of the raw Total...which you’ll never find if you don’t TEST!!
more tests also would eventually drive the virus down because people would get more scared and/or frustrated and do the right things to kill it.
But that hasn’t happened...because to address a “plague” you have to address the WHOLE Population...find the patterns and break the cycle.
Like fleas...for lack of a better example I can currently think of
Yes...because they are the dumbest humans on the planet! Can’t be trusted...they drink Beast...by choice!
Colleges brought them back because of tuition/revenue shortfalls...they had no choice. They need the money...always.
Gee? Put a few dozen thousand kids in a 5 square mile block and see what happens?
All the school officials knew what they were getting into. As evidenced by the viral picture that has circulated of 5,000 freshman mulling around a couple weeks ago in a place I happen to know well.
(No...not Epcot...that’s the OTHER place)
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
And the less testing done...as the bungholes are leaning toward for politics...the more spread there will be because of non-representative numbers being spouted.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
No...that’s the town fool...
I don’t get the disconnect on this though...you must have misfired?
solidyne
Well-Known Member
This is correct. But for every person who erroneously implies that more testing causes new cases, there's another person who erroneously infers from the rise in testing (and concomitant rise in positives) that numbers of infections are rising. The same argument works against both claims.
Imagine a country with a population of a million and with 10,000 infected people. They test 1,000 people and discover 10 positive. Later they ramp up testing and test 10,000 more, now finding 100 positive.
One group shouts, "Oh my god more people are getting Covid!!!" The other group says, "No, that's just because we're testing more." They're both wrong, because the real number is (and had been) 10,000, regardless of how much testing there's been. Yet we have both groups calling each other morons here on the boards!
The truth is, though, very few of the people in the second group ("we're testing more") are actually trying to make the claim that testing causes new cases. (Does anyone really believe that?) They're merely being accused of doing so, in an attempt to discredit them in some way, when in reality they're saying the same thing you are.
That testing is revealing more cases doesn't necessarily mean the actual number of infected is going up.
matt9112
Well-Known Member
This will solely depend on how many people travel to wdw for there vacation. Obviously normally its a busy time of year.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Young people are a problem because they CARRY the virus...that was the problem from the start. And i’ll Be damned if that isn’t rolling out as the biggest problem in the fall...just like those pesky doctors warned
And if there’s no vaccine? Well then we are in for the long haul. And though life will move on...it’s near impossible to predict what that will mean as far as societal change and economic damage?
I’ll remind: they shut basically the world down over 10 days in March. You have to assume in the halls of power that the fear was off the charts to even think of doing that.
Oh well...it’s not like we’ll ever know...it’s not as though some idiot didn’t blab to reporters and reveal just how screwed up this has all been
Now please...sweet baby Jesus...can we bump off the virus policy stuff???
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I don’t see anyway on 9/10 that the demand will be there in 2 months to justify an increase in hours/overhead costs...
The quarantine restrictions will have to be gone and that’s unrealistic.
Right now, the state of testing is like finding a couple of termites in your wood-frame house, and the pest control company won't tell you how many or where. And now you have to decide what level of treatment you need and how much you're willing to spend.
All you know for sure is that you've got a lot more termites than the company found. Fortunately, this analogy breaks down when you consider a trip to Disney -- you probably can't get termites from that, no matter how many hours per day you're in the parks.
You might get bed bugs, but that's an entirely different thread.
FYI, Muppets and Vacation Fun and Walt Disney Presents and Lightning McQueen are all indeed 10:00 to 6:00 now even though the park closes at 7:00.
mikejs78
Premium Member
Lots of misinformation in this thread.
First more test equals more cases. Numerically, that's correct.you'll always get a higher number of cases when you test more than when you test less. But, That's been shown in previous virus outbreaks in other countries, the more you test, you also get a higher increase in negative tests. So as you test more, your percent positive rate goes down if the virus is under control. But what we've been seeing in various states is the percent positive rate going up. Number of cases is a bad measure because it's hard to gauge due to many factors such as number of tests etc. But percent positive is a much better barometer and that is something that has been going up in general, although thankfully it's been going down in several outbreak states in recent weeks.
Second, is number of hospitalizations. Hospitalizations always lag tests, and as the percent positive test increase, the number of hospitalizations increase. We saw this in Florida in June and July. in June, we started to see a huge uptick in cases, but not an uptick in hospitalizations. However by the time we got to July, hospitalizations had skyrocketed to the point where several hospitals in Florida near the capacity. To say that cases and colleges have gone up but hospitalizations have not is premature, as hospitalizations are aligning indicator and usually occur two to three weeks after the infection rates rise.
Third, the idea that the virus does not affect the young. We actually do not know this. What we do know is that young people are not likely to show symptoms, and are less likely to die. But there's a whole lot of room in the middle between getting a mild cold or no symptoms at all, and dying. what we're learning about the virus is that it actually can cause long-term organ damage, even if you're asymptomatic. there's actually not been a lot of tests or studies around children in this matter. So we have no idea if kids who get this or young people who get this are going to experience long-term debilitating organ damage throughout their life. And until we have that research, for anyone to say this does not affect kids is fooling themselves. It may not affect kids at all, or it may do serious long-term damage and will end up with a whole generation of COVID children with the crease lung capacity, liver damage, and heart damage.
Add to that the fact that children are indeed carriers of the virus, and spread it to others. Recent studies show that children carry a lot higher viral load than adults do. So it may very well be that they are the silent spreaders of the virus.
Finally, to compare this to the flu is ridiculous. The death toll of COVID is a level of magnitude above any flu year since 1918. It is currently the third highest cause of death in this country, and it will soon be higher than every other cause of death combined, save for heart disease and cancer. And that's not even beginning to deal with the permanent long-term organ damage that people who survive the virus end up with.
Hopefully we'll get a vaccine. Given what I'm hearing from an epidemiologist friend that I have who's plugged into all of this, the data on at least three of the current trials is looking really, really good. They still have to finalize the trial and ensure that it's both safe and effective by examining the data, but six months ago she told me there was no way we would get a vaccine until at least late 2021, maybe 2022. Now she's optimistic that will have an approved vaccine by the end of the year, had enough doses to vaccinate anyone who wants it by mid 2021.
First more test equals more cases. Numerically, that's correct.you'll always get a higher number of cases when you test more than when you test less. But, That's been shown in previous virus outbreaks in other countries, the more you test, you also get a higher increase in negative tests. So as you test more, your percent positive rate goes down if the virus is under control. But what we've been seeing in various states is the percent positive rate going up. Number of cases is a bad measure because it's hard to gauge due to many factors such as number of tests etc. But percent positive is a much better barometer and that is something that has been going up in general, although thankfully it's been going down in several outbreak states in recent weeks.
Second, is number of hospitalizations. Hospitalizations always lag tests, and as the percent positive test increase, the number of hospitalizations increase. We saw this in Florida in June and July. in June, we started to see a huge uptick in cases, but not an uptick in hospitalizations. However by the time we got to July, hospitalizations had skyrocketed to the point where several hospitals in Florida near the capacity. To say that cases and colleges have gone up but hospitalizations have not is premature, as hospitalizations are aligning indicator and usually occur two to three weeks after the infection rates rise.
Third, the idea that the virus does not affect the young. We actually do not know this. What we do know is that young people are not likely to show symptoms, and are less likely to die. But there's a whole lot of room in the middle between getting a mild cold or no symptoms at all, and dying. what we're learning about the virus is that it actually can cause long-term organ damage, even if you're asymptomatic. there's actually not been a lot of tests or studies around children in this matter. So we have no idea if kids who get this or young people who get this are going to experience long-term debilitating organ damage throughout their life. And until we have that research, for anyone to say this does not affect kids is fooling themselves. It may not affect kids at all, or it may do serious long-term damage and will end up with a whole generation of COVID children with the crease lung capacity, liver damage, and heart damage.
Add to that the fact that children are indeed carriers of the virus, and spread it to others. Recent studies show that children carry a lot higher viral load than adults do. So it may very well be that they are the silent spreaders of the virus.
Finally, to compare this to the flu is ridiculous. The death toll of COVID is a level of magnitude above any flu year since 1918. It is currently the third highest cause of death in this country, and it will soon be higher than every other cause of death combined, save for heart disease and cancer. And that's not even beginning to deal with the permanent long-term organ damage that people who survive the virus end up with.
Hopefully we'll get a vaccine. Given what I'm hearing from an epidemiologist friend that I have who's plugged into all of this, the data on at least three of the current trials is looking really, really good. They still have to finalize the trial and ensure that it's both safe and effective by examining the data, but six months ago she told me there was no way we would get a vaccine until at least late 2021, maybe 2022. Now she's optimistic that will have an approved vaccine by the end of the year, had enough doses to vaccinate anyone who wants it by mid 2021.
SoFloMagic
Well-Known Member
One side said "it's about the positive percentages" until that went up. Then they abandoned that and said they those don't matter because it's not really that deadly. Now states have cut testing capacity, so case counts are falling and they're back to "more testing = more cases".
When in reality if we just look at what the scientists and doctors said before this was all politicized, the correct answer is:
if you're testing more and finding more you are not testing enough.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Very well said.
UNCgolf
Well-Known Member
Which is why looking at the simple number of positive tests doesn't really tell you very much.
This is also why I wish everyone was required to take statistics, because most people don't understand them and are easily misled about a wide variety of things.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
I do think positivity rating is a more reliable indicator, but I’d also say one caveat to that is overall testing capacity. If there’s not enough testing capacity, you could run into a scenario where those who are clearly symptomatic are overrepresented. I look at it like polling. Well done polling should theoretically give you a good snapshot of the larger population. If your pollster seeks out more people, say, who wear MAGA or BLM type shirts that is not reflective of the underlying population, you might see skewed results.
Speaking of a whole bunch of information, yours takes the cake.
I personally prefer to get information from the actual experts and data. Some of the above is sorta right, and a bunch very wrong.
The young are "less likely to die", kinda an understatement, to put it politely. kids carry a high viral load, I mean really.
From the CDC today:
- 0-14 [62 deaths]
- 15-24 [315 deaths]
- 25-54 [14,226 deaths]
- 55+ [161,263 deaths]
It is less deadly than the flu for younger people that is a fact. This is shown by the CDC etc. Older it is much worse.
How do we know about long term damage, this has only been around for 6 months or so. Show me real numbers.
What about the Georgia school system that had the viral photo with no one wearing masks in the hallway. Been in school now 6 weeks full time, masks optional, they now only have 27 positive tests out of 42,000 kids. Zero hospitalizations, zero deaths. They also opened school at the peak in cases in Georgia and the cases dropped since then so no sign the kids spreading it to teachers, parents and grandparents.
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