On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[UNCgolf]

Unless something has recently changed, the majority of DVC members are from Florida, New York, and New Jersey. However, I do not know if the figures that were shared with me account for population density.

That doesn't surprise me at all. I was really thinking about non-DVC visitors.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

pfft. Every thread can be a COVID thread!

Can’t really think of anything impacting Disney’s business more since WW2...

...because there hasn’t been anything close

 

[UNCgolf]

(Bolding is mine)

I can only speak for myself, but the quarantine orders are definitely playing a role in my decision on whether to take my September trip or not. I am not afraid of air travel, and I am confident in both Disney's and my ability to be safe for the duration of my stay (solo trip Sept 8-15). Arguments about less of an experience are moot for me as I go every year. I am comfortable with the cost/experience I will get. I have open eyes. Plus this is a half golf/half Disney trip for me - if it were 100% Disney I would have pause but I digress.

I live in Massachusetts, and effective Saturday there is a new travel order requiring me to fill out a form and quarantine for 14 days unless I can produce a negative test taken either 72 hours before arrival in MA, or sometime during the 14 day period. My employer also has a requirement that I quarantine for 14 days or a negative test before I can return to work (although I can get a work from home exception through my manager). For the state, there is a $500 per incident fine for non-compliance. No, the state police will not be out looking for violators. But you are dang straight I will be following it IF I go. I say IF, because while I could do the 14 days standing on my head, did I mention this is a solo trip? I would have to quarantine from my wife. And my wife is 60+. So living out of the guest room and taking uber precautions eating and bathing, not to mention no physical contact, while obeying a very reasonable order from the state (although I do question the form, but again I digress), this quarantine is definitely making me rethink my trip.

So while I am only one person, the quarantines definitely are impacting travel decisions and if not in place would definitely show an increase in attendance at WDW.

This doesn't surprise me either! I know some of the northeastern states are taking this very seriously (and they should) and I really didn't mean them. I meant the rest of the country -- the southeast, midwest, etc. who mostly don't even have quarantine orders in place. Although it does sound to me like you would be rethinking even without the quarantine order because of the issues with your wife, which was also part of my point -- that most of the people who are taking this seriously likely wouldn't travel even without a quarantine order in place, although it's certainly not true of everyone.

That could all change going forward, of course. More states could institute strict quarantine orders.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Unless something has recently changed, the majority of DVC members are from Florida, New York, and New Jersey. However, I do not know if the figures that were shared with me account for population density.

The heaviest per capita Concentrations are there (along with CA and PA)...but DVC is very widespread and is more representative of the “whole market” than people realize.

Essentially: there are retired business owners and doctors with kids/grandkids everywhere

 

[ToTBellHop]

Wow, that's actually shocking to me. It's mainly just Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and Ohio (as far as I know) that are actually under relatively strict quarantine orders and have large populations that probably visit Disney. That's definitely a hit, but it shouldn't be a huge percentage of their overall visitor base.

Also, I don't think you can definitively blame that on quarantine orders. It's just as likely that people looked at the numbers surging in the US and decided that maybe things weren't going to be perfectly fine and safe to travel in the winter.

If I had the guess, restrictions are the straws breaking camels’ backs. You have all these other issues(masks, no park hopping, limited characters, etc.) that already have people saying, “we would love a vacation but this may stink,” and then your state says “you should (or must) quarantine on your return” and people say, “to hell with it. Too expensive and stressful.” The only people still flying to WDW are people who REALLY love the parks. We considered it but ultimately decided on Uni and Vero. We will try for Disney next February, hoping the situation is less dire.

 

[_caleb]

As I mentioned to @jt04 in another thread:
“Also, no offense to you, but the talking head promo saying “we found a way to put guests into a cartoon!” was a joke. Disney already did that in two fully formed Toontowns (Cali and Tokyo) plus Roger Rabbit’s cartoon spin. That was in the ‘90s. Painted flats and massive unused spaces do not put guests into the world of cartoons.”

IMHO, the big miss with MRR was Iger’s directive to use only “his” version of Mickey who’s already been discontinued from merch, etc. instead of using the classic version that’s here to stay. It’s a typical example of Iger’s hubris.

But I digress.

I agree, and I LOVE Paul Rudish’s Mickey design.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Love your optimism.

It's based on Disney's record of posting incredible park numbers for over a decade. Irrefutable. This virus didn't change the perception people have for Disney, their love for the brand, or their desire to go to the parks. Travel in general is down because of the virus. It will come back when the virus is no longer a thing. Which will happen sooner or later. People want to travel, go on vacation, and do stuff.

If we have viruses and pandemics that shut down the world economy every year, we are all screwed anyway. This is a once in a while event and we'll get through it, like we always do.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Abigail Disney Tweetstorm Targets C-Suite “Greed,” Warns “Layoffs Are Coming”

Abigail Disney, grand-daughter of Walt Disney Co. co-founder Roy Disney, continued her attacks on her namesake company on Twitter.

deadline.com

 

[Dave B]

Can you speculate on why attendance is so low? Anecdotally I know of four separate parties who cancelled trips due to the one park per day limit and the reservation system.

Expecting people to pay thousands and only get into the parks guaranteed for 3 days of their trip is lunacy. If they want people in the parks, OPEN the parks and resorts. This is not Ebola.

I'm simply not convinced the low attendance is due to covid. I've seen too many packed with people places.

150,000 Dead in the US since Feb 29th, maybe

ALSO

No Fireworks, No Park Hoping, 2/3 restaurants are closed, no character meet an greets ( yes they are roaming the park ) no buffets, limited transportation, just to mention a few

 

[Chef Mickey]

I think it all depends on a few things:

1. How long the economic downturn lasts and how bad it is. Yeah, people want to go out and do things, but the basics will take priority over a trip to WDW. If people are out of work, and jobs are slow to return, people wont be saving for a trip, they'll be scraping by until they land comfortably again. Layoffs are coming, Americans aren't coming to WDW for a multitude of reasons, but a large one is people are in survivor mode. Not just from the virus but from potential job losses and economic uncertainty.

2. How aggressively TWDC prices themselves. Many are dipping into savings at the moment, they wont have the cash to go at today's prices. The premium customer that Disney wants is generally being conservative with cash right now. With hotels seeing a downturn in business, TWDC will need to reconsider its pricing structure. Hell, the entire hospitality industry is trying to figure that out right now. Business travel is going to be gutted for the foreseeable future. As the backbone of many large hotels business, expect to see some hotels trend consumer rates up to offset the losses, while others re-baseline their business and price aggressively to fill rooms consistently. Contrary to popular belief, your average Marriott isn't super profitable. Expect them evaluate where they can save such as less frequent housekeeping, scrapping planned renovations, keeping furniture longer, removing free shuttles, etc.

3. How much of the experience returns. Disney parks are great, but when you shave off entertainment, meet and greets, nighttime spectaculars, etc., you have a product that isn't as different from something you can receive elsewhere. Many of us absolutely say the quality is still higher and see value, but for many it becomes a lot harder to justify $120+ a day when $60-80 is still a fun experience at a local Kings, Busch, or Six Flags.

4. Travel availability - double edged sword here. If Americans can't travel abroad, they will look closer at US destinations obviously. International travel has been over-hyped in these forums for the contributing factor. Last I heard it was between 15 to 20% of WDWs crowd levels? (insiders please correct me!) While not insignificant, there's no doubt the bulk of guests are domestic. However, air travel is about to be really different. Flight capacity and availability will be finicky while airlines adjust to the loss of business travel. The consulting firm I work for has been in the top 5 customers of every airline for a while because we fly so much. Our clients aren't just expecting us to not travel right now, they are demanding we adjust our MSAs to be remote first, and help them develop virtual workplace strategies. Everyone agrees business travel is forever changed, which will reduce flights, raise costs, etc. Consumers used to be what filled in excess capacity from those of us flying for a living. Airlines were on razor thin margins before, sure they will look to cut costs where possible, but they have a lot of fixed costs that aren't easy to renegotiate like long term fuel price contracts.

Like I said, we've seen worldwide events before and things tend to rebound, quickly. It's already happening. People said Apple couldn't sell $1,000 phones during a pandemic and their results last quarter disagreed. Many people are OK. Many are not, but many are working at home and doing fine. Disney doesn't need everyone to come. Sure, it's going to be a process. In 18 months, things will look A LOT different, just like they look different now than 3 months ago. People were predicting complete economic meltdown. Now, we'll probably have a few bad quarters as things slowly open back up.

I've been on flights as recently as this month and they were pretty much full, masks required. The industries will adapt and already have done so.

The vaccine will also come, sooner or later and will be if nothing else, a huge psychological change in addition to the clinical benefits.

The Disney is expensive argument has been discussed for 20 years and a lot more in the last 10...hasn't hurt them.

 

[BrianLo]

Wow, that's actually shocking to me. It's mainly just Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, and Ohio (as far as I know) that are actually under relatively strict quarantine orders and have large populations that probably visit Disney. That's definitely a hit, but it shouldn't be a huge percentage of their overall visitor base.

Also, I don't think you can definitively blame that on quarantine orders. It's just as likely that people looked at the numbers surging in the US and decided that maybe things weren't going to be perfectly fine and safe to travel in the winter.

You also cannot underscore the International markets. Taking Canada off alone would have sent shockwaves through Florida in a normal year. Essentially no where is coming in right now in any numbers.

A huge blow to the domestic markets and an obliteration of International has occurred.

 

[Dave B]

Here’s the difference: You don’t have to wear a damn mask when you go to a waterpark. The masks are the single most annoying thing that people absolutely hate for their vacations. If you get rid of the mask requirements when you are outside, everyone will come back fairly quickly. That’s why the national parks are doing such amazing numbers this year. That’s why water parks are doing well. No masks when outside.

But they help save lives and slow the spread, yes they suck, but definitely are needed, just look at the numbers of the places that refuse to wear them compared to the areas that are

 

[celluloid]

Cedar Point is a great destination because you have the beach plus the park. Easy to spend 2 days at that park.

I’m a particular fan of the steam railroad of course I was sad they took out the little river boat ride though.

There was/is a project to bring a river oat ride back with theming and live performers interacting. Not sure if Covid 19 knocked that down.

 

[Chef Mickey]

150,000 Dead in the US since Feb 29th, maybe

ALSO

No Fireworks, No Park Hoping, 2/3 restaurants are closed, no character meet an greets ( yes they are roaming the park ) no buffets, limited transportation, just to mention a few

Again, the bolded headline doesn't tell the whole story (But thanks to CNN and Fox News, we only read headlines). We are always sad for human death and it's certainly been too many, but there is data behind that number. There is also perspective.

I'm not going through all of it here, but let's just say everything requires deeper thought than a headline. There are many, many factors, pros, cons, and extenuating circumstances.

I'll say it again. Disney TELEGRAPHED that they would be operating at very low crowd levels, as they did in Shanghai. It's very difficult to gauge real demand when it's been artificially controlled by Disney themselves and it's only 2 weeks since re-opening. Everyone loves to jump the gun, but let's get some more data before we start panicking.

I just had the best 10 days I've had at Disney in a long time. There are many positives to the current situation at Disney. I don't think they can operate this way forever or anything, but the experience is not trash. People just need some time to build confidence and Disney is doing a good job in the meantime.

 

[Castmbr]

Can’t really think if anything impacting Disney’s business more since WW2...

...because there hasn’t been anything close

You are correct.....

When the Fed , State and local gov'ts force businesses to follow rules that restrict gatherings and force a shut down of a business then ....everything going forward is COVID related. Some of the "pixie dust" people do not want to admit or hear that fact and just want Disney to be back "normal". I understand the "pixies dust spreaders" want but reality is that businesses were forced to close for a long time and at a minimum change the way they do business due to the COVID regulatory reaction. Adults will have to figure out how to deal with from a business perspective and it is going to be a huge challenge

Disney is doing their best to adapt in this new REGULATORY world for gatherings of a certain size and the fear that accompanies that regulatory action. I hope they do not cut too heavy but I anticipate ~30% of the workforce. We will see very soon.

 

[Jrb1979]

There was/is a project to bring a river oat ride back with theming and live performers interacting. Not sure if Covid 19 knocked that down.

Its being delayed for next year as with all their 150th anniversary plans.

 

[BlackCauldron]

I've been on flights as recently as this month and they were pretty much full, masks required. The industries will adapt and already have done so.

What airlines have you been on that were full? I know SW is operating on at least a 2/3 capacity, if not lower.

 

[disneygeek90]

It is just a theory and you may not like it because it suggests mask wearing is killing the economy and by extension putting people in poverty and therefore raising the non-covid death count. However, I was supposed to leave for a 10 day trip to WDW tomorrow and the number one reason I cancelled is because I don't want to wear a mask in that heat when I am supposed to be on a relaxing vacation. Masks and vacation don't mix and until Disney changes this policy there are A LOT of people here on these forums that won't be going back. This is even more striking as these forums make up the most die-hard fans.

Imagine letting a piece of cloth kill the economy. Yikes.

WDW has never truly been relaxing in the past 10 years. Fun, yes. Relaxing, no. But that's besides the point.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Even throwing out South Carolina as a quarantine state (despite the fact that SC citizens could go to Disney without quarantining if they felt like it), there are over 50 million people who could be going to WDW just in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. Throw in Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana, and you're up to 65+ million. I think that counts as plenty of people.

If only 21 million people (based on MK attendance) visit a year (and if we go with 20% are international then we go down to 17 million), that works out to 5% of the country visits every year. When you start to remove states and keep the same 5% rule, then you have a much smaller annual attendance and then split that up by day. You end up with a fraction of the attendance as a result.

 

[Chef Mickey]

You couldn't be more off. Our businesses are closing left and right. Businesses that gave been around 50-70 years. Disney attendance is about half of the reservation limit and then you have people not even showing up with reservations. With regards to NFL of which I am season ticket holder of over 20 years you won't be finding people in the stands probably for about 3/4 of the teams. My team emailed everyone basically begging them to give up their tickets for this year because if they are allowed fans it will only be about 10 percent capacity. Raiders owner has said he probably won't have any fans in the new stadium in Vegas. NFL will be losing millions. Even the NBA that is doing great job with the bubble will have owners selling their teams and first round draft picks to try and get some cash flow. Disney parks won't be returning to normal pre-covid days for at least 18-24 months. And you earlier comment about vaccine shows you are listening to too many press conferences. even if there is a vaccine by early next year which is the earliest it can come out. You will usually find the first ones aren't that effective. You also won't be able to vaccinate everyone at once. You will be lucky to get up to 5% in first few months. And yes you will need to be wearing masks at Disney for at least another year.

What businesses are closing left and right? I mean, of course small business has been hit some, but was talking about US brands like Disney because people act like they are screwed over a bad quarter.

I watch zero press conferences or news (can't stand it), but I've seen this "doom and gloom" story before. America always rebounds and I have a lot of confidence in our companies to adapt and innovate.

There will be a vaccine...mark it down and it changes the game. We are going to manage this, just like we are managing it now, with precautions and process until we have a permanent solution. If that takes 12 months, so be it. We will be OK and so will Disney Parks.