Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Jenny72]

I know it's frustrating, but good science takes *years*, not weeks or months. And that's for one study. You have to design it, get approval for ethics, get participants, get their ethical consent, collect the data, analyze the data, write up the data, interpret the data, have it reviewed by peers, make edits and revisions, have it reviewed again, and then publish it, and compare to other studies and draw conclusions. What is happening now is looking at a drawing of a bus where some people were sitting and trying to figure out how they got sick. It's not good science, but it's all we've got because we don't have time to do it right. It's no wonder things are all over the place. Scientists are doing the best they can with bad information, very high stakes, and no time.

 

[chrisvee]

I think one thing is for sure in FL right now....Miami-Dade needs to shut down.

agree

they need to shut down, flatten the curve, then do a more diligent phased re-opening

I know it's frustrating, but good science takes *years*, not weeks or months. And that's for one study. You have to design it, get approval for ethics, get participants, get their ethical consent, collect the data, analyze the data, write up the data, interpret the data, have it reviewed by peers, make edits and revisions, have it reviewed again, and then publish it, and compare to other studies and draw conclusions. What is happening now is looking at a drawing of a bus where some people were sitting and trying to figure out how they got sick. It's not good science, but it's all we've got because we don't have time to do it right. It's no wonder things are all over the place. Scientists are doing the best they can with bad information, very high stakes, and no time.

well said and thank goodness they are bc a lot more of us would be dead otherwise

 

[GoofGoof]

This is really what I see happened in states like Texas, Florida, California and Arizona. The virus never hit these states early on like it did for the northeast. I think many leaders and experts knew it eventually would. Some warned about it. But even so, it led to a false sense of security. Eventually, the virus did hit and it spread as these states were reopening. I don’t think reopening caused the virus to hit. It was going to hit either way. It was inevitable. but certain areas that were opening at that time definitely caused the community spread to be great. That combined with mistakes during the reopening..well, here we are.

Agreed. If we look back to May 1 the re-opening plans were always to open things slowly in phases. Open phase 1, wait a little while, assess the impact then move on. We went too fast in a lot of places. Once one thing opened people got indignant that the things they wanted to do weren’t open yet (especially places that didn’t get hit hard initially) and the whole process was rushed. What we are seeing now is a mini-reboot. Not a return to stay at home, but a pull back on certain activities and then hopefully a pause followed by a more orderly reintroduction if/when the time is right. The fact of the matter is the more extra precautions that are taken the more stuff can be open safely. Masks help. Physical distancing helps. Capacity limits help. People fighting those things are actually resulting in more pull backs and less things being open.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I know it's frustrating, but good science takes *years*, not weeks or months. And that's for one study. You have to design it, get approval for ethics, get participants, get their ethical consent, collect the data, analyze the data, write up the data, interpret the data, have it reviewed by peers, make edits and revisions, have it reviewed again, and then publish it, and compare to other studies and draw conclusions. What is happening now is looking at a drawing of a bus where some people were sitting and trying to figure out how they got sick. It's not good science, but it's all we've got because we don't have time to do it right. It's no wonder things are all over the place. Scientists are doing the best they can with bad information, very high stakes, and no time.

that is my concern with the vaccine. The fact it needs to be rushed. I hope it isn't faulty because of it needing to be rushed.

 

[GoofGoof]

I know it's frustrating, but good science takes *years*, not weeks or months. And that's for one study. You have to design it, get approval for ethics, get participants, get their ethical consent, collect the data, analyze the data, write up the data, interpret the data, have it reviewed by peers, make edits and revisions, have it reviewed again, and then publish it, and compare to other studies and draw conclusions. What is happening now is looking at a drawing of a bus where some people were sitting and trying to figure out how they got sick. It's not good science, but it's all we've got because we don't have time to do it right. It's no wonder things are all over the place. Scientists are doing the best they can with bad information, very high stakes, and no time.

100% agreed. To take it a step further government officials are then taking that incomplete information and making decisions based on it. Not ideal, but the job of any good leader is to absorb all of the available information, determine the possible plans of action and pick the one thats best overall. Leaders are constantly faced with the proposition of making impossible decisions with incomplete information. We do the best we can and hopefully we get it right more times than not.

 

[Andrew C]

Agreed. If we look back to May 1 the re-opening plans were always to open things slowly in phases. Open phase 1, wait a little while, assess the impact then move on. We went too fast in a lot of places. Once one thing opened people got indignant that the things they wanted to do weren’t open yet (especially places that didn’t get hit hard initially) and the whole process was rushed. What we are seeing now is a mini-reboot. Not a return to stay at home, but a pull back on certain activities and then hopefully a pause followed by a more orderly reintroduction if/when the time is right. The fact of the matter is the more extra precautions that are taken the more stuff can be open safely. Masks help. Physical distancing helps. Capacity limits help. People fighting those things are actually resulting in more pull backs and less things being open.

I’m not even sure the timing was wrong. But i think certain areas of business were placed in the wrong phase. For example, in Texas, bars should have been placed in a later phase (as
much as i hate keeping businesses closed). I believe state leadership even admitted this. There also should have been a statewide mask requirement, which I get not very one agrees with. These are just of a few examples of how the reopening could have been handled differently outside of just waiting until later.

 

[Rider]

For those wondering this week's deaths would've been, on average, from roughly this part of the new cases curve:

 

[Casper Gutman]

I’m not even sure the timing was wrong. But i think certain areas of business were placed in the wrong phase. For example, in Texas, bars should have been placed in a later phase (as
much as i hate keeping businesses closed). I believe state leadership even admitted this. There also should have been a statewide mask requirement, which I get not very one agrees with. These are just of a few examples of how the reopening could have been handled differently outside of just waiting until later.

Honestly , while I support a mask mandate, uniform and consistent messaging regarding masks at every level of society probably would have done as much as any single other element to avoid what is currently happening.

There is a lot of truth in your statement that areas hit in the first months took it seriously, areas that weren’t hit didn’t, and that made the difference. Something as small as taking it seriously probably makes that much difference.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m not even sure the timing was wrong. But i think certain areas of business were placed in the wrong phase. For example, in Texas, bars should have been placed in a later phase (as
much as i hate keeping businesses closed). I believe state leadership even admitted this. There also should have been a statewide mask requirement, which I get not very one agrees with. These are just of a few examples of how the reopening could have been handled differently outside of just waiting until later.

Yes, that’s exactly what I am talking about. Not that re-opening should have been delayed, but a better approach to what opens when. I still feel that theme parks and other places where large groups of strangers from various areas come together should have been in a later phase too. I know it’s an unpopular thing to say here, but if we are looking at a more measured approach, local interactions would have come first followed by regional than national ones. I’m sure there will be someone asking me to show where the outbreak from cases at Universal or Sea World is, but that’s not the point.

 

[mellyf]

It’s not though. There’s zero tracking involved. It doesn’t use your GPS like so many other apps do. There’s no record stored of where you have been.

Honestly, I believe this. Unfortunately, big tech companies like Google, Apple, etc, have been sketchy in the past, (okay, not just the past) so people are extremely skeptical that they'll be on the up and up about this, and not turn it to their advantage.

 

[zurj]

If people had followed the stay-at-home guidelines from the beginning it would be nearly over by now. But this is 'Murica and NO ONE tells us what to do.

Glad to see you have discovered the solution, comrade. If only we had an heavy handed totalitarian regime to protect the collective, we could get back to our American ideals of liberty.

 

[MissingDisney]

This is really what I see happened in states like Texas, Florida, California and Arizona. The virus never hit these states early on like it did for the northeast. I think many leaders and experts knew it eventually would. Some warned about it. But even so, it led to a false sense of security. Eventually, the virus did hit and it spread as these states were reopening. I don’t think reopening caused the virus to hit. It was going to hit either way. It was inevitable. but certain areas that were opening at that time definitely caused the community spread to be great. That combined with mistakes during the reopening..well, here we are.

Yes, this. We live in the north in a highly affected area almost from the start. Our family in the southern states would tease us and talk about our “unclean state” and all the restrictions we had in place and how stupid and inflated it all was. I kept telling them that unfortunately, whether they liked it or not, just wait....it’ll come....and be ready. They laughed and didn‘t listen. it’s not so funny to them anymore.

We did make one trip south about a month ago to help my mom who has stage four cancer with some tasks around the house. When we went into town, masks were few and far between. We got funny looks because our entire family was wearing them. As we were coming from a highly infected area, I was very concerned about us being asymptomatic and possibly spreading so we used extreme caution to protect others. It seemed as though everyone was going about their day as usual. Several of the stores had no markers or any signage whatsoever.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It’s been said a million times but it’s true and if we did we wouldn’t be in this mess right now. Slower openings.. masks mandatory.. social distancing as much as possible. These are basic and not hard things to do. I just don’t get it.
It took 95 days to reach I million.
It took 43 days to reach 2 million.
It took 28 days to reach 3 million.

it’s accelerating, we all know it and we handled it badly. As others mentioned, we are here now, what do we do.

 

[GoofGoof]

Honestly, I believe this. Unfortunately, big tech companies like Google, Apple, etc, have been sketchy in the past, (okay, not just the past) so people are extremely skeptical that they'll be on the up and up about this, and not turn it to their advantage.

I hear what you are saying and you aren’t alone. I don’t personally get it though. I have an Apple phone. I use it all the time. Many apps use locational services and I don’t have the code behind how anything works so I have no idea whether they are tracking me or not. I just accept it. I guess what I’m saying is do all the people who don’t trust Apple and Google just use flip phones? Do they trust Facebook or other social media companies or do they not have accounts there either? It just seems kinda arbitrary to say I won’t use something that potentially helps with public health (that doesn’t even attempt to track my movements) but I’m ok with having a Facebook account or using the GPS in my phone for directions or store locations or any other way GPS tracking could be used. Just my 2 cents. Rant over.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

It’s been said a million times but it’s true and if we did we wouldn’t be in this mess right now. Slower openings.. masks mandatory.. social distancing as much as possible. These are basic and not hard things to do. I just don’t get it.
It took 95 days to reach I million.
It took 43 days to reach 2 million.
It took 28 days to reach 3 million.

it’s accelerating, we all know it and we handled it badly. As others mentioned, we are here now, what do we do.

get in the bunker.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Nearly half of Florida's intensive-care units are at least 90% full, and more than 1 in 5 are completely full, according to state data.
Hospitals are increasingly strained under COVID-19, and hospitalizations across the state have jumped more than 13% just since July 1. More than 17,100 Floridians have been hospitalized for COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic.
A total of 95 hospital ICUs were at least 90% full Thursday, according to the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. That's nearly half the 207 ICUs that the agency is tracking. At least 45 hospital ICUs were at capacity, and 46 others had only one bed available in the units.
At least 4,111 people in Florida have died from the virus, according to the state — a figure that would have made it the ninth leading cause of death in Florida last year, according to Florida Department of Health statistics. Florida set a one-day record Thursday with 120 deaths. The previous high, 83, was in late April.Three months ago, everyone joined in a shared goal of flattening the curve, which was temporarily accomplished ... the curve is no longer flat, instead we have a spike in cases and the spike is growing fast," said Larry Antonucci, CEO of Southwest Florida’s Lee Health hospital system.

I know, it’s not that bad. But when should we start thinking it may be getting there?

 

[milordsloth]

Nearly half of Florida's intensive-care units are at least 90% full, and more than 1 in 5 are completely full, according to state data.
Hospitals are increasingly strained under COVID-19, and hospitalizations across the state have jumped more than 13% just since July 1. More than 17,100 Floridians have been hospitalized for COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic.
A total of 95 hospital ICUs were at least 90% full Thursday, according to the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. That's nearly half the 207 ICUs that the agency is tracking. At least 45 hospital ICUs were at capacity, and 46 others had only one bed available in the units.
At least 4,111 people in Florida have died from the virus, according to the state — a figure that would have made it the ninth leading cause of death in Florida last year, according to Florida Department of Health statistics. Florida set a one-day record Thursday with 120 deaths. The previous high, 83, was in late April.Three months ago, everyone joined in a shared goal of flattening the curve, which was temporarily accomplished ... the curve is no longer flat, instead we have a spike in cases and the spike is growing fast," said Larry Antonucci, CEO of Southwest Florida’s Lee Health hospital system.

I know, it’s not that bad. But when should we start thinking it may be getting there?

Just pointing out again that only 31 of those 120 reported yesterday died in July.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I hear what you are saying and you aren’t alone. I don’t personally get it though. I have an Apple phone. I use it all the time. Many apps use locational services and I don’t have the code behind how anything works so I have no idea whether they are tracking me or not. I just accept it. I guess what I’m saying is do all the people who don’t trust Apple and Google just use flip phones? Do they trust Facebook or other social media companies or do they not have accounts there either? It just seems kinda arbitrary to say I won’t use something that potentially helps with public health (that doesn’t even attempt to track my movements) but I’m ok with having a Facebook account or using the GPS in my phone for directions or store locations or any other way GPS tracking could be used. Just my 2 cents. Rant over.

Unless one is using an old smartphone then the code is not needed to know if apps are using location services. They are something that requires user permission and can be turned off.

 

[kong1802]

Just pointing out again that only 31 of those 120 reported yesterday died in July.

Were you able to put together a real graph by death date? Sounds morbid, I know. I guess it literally is though.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Just pointing out again that only 31 of those 120 reported yesterday died in July.

I love how people keep “pointing things out” to doctors and healthcare professionals.