Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[flynnibus]

Do we know with good certainty the guy in Washington state was the actual beginning for the outbreak in the US? Since it appears China wasn’t completely forthcoming with when it started there, is there any chance it actually started here in, say, November instead of January? Would that put us, on average because each state is a bit different, peaking now instead of 4-6 weeks, or whatever it is, from now? Just curious if anyone has any info on this.

It's possible there were cases before his... but it's not really a driving point in what is happening now. If a person (or even a few people) had the virus... but it didn't spread.. 'no harm, no foul'. It's the spreading of the virus that is what materially significant... not if there were isolated cases.

Since we know we didn't have the increase in identifiable symptoms and resulting hospitalizations.. and deaths.. it's reasonable to say we didn't have the spread at that time. The percentage of asymptomatic people, those needing treatment, and those dying, wouldn't have changed significantly from then to now. So if there was the spread going on... there would have been the hospitalizations and deaths to go along with it.

The fact we weren't having a sudden spike in cases... means we were not seeing tramission like we would expect to see if it were the coronavirus causing us problems now.

That's what all the conspiracies about "has this been here all along..." postulations gloss over or people going "oh I got sick in Jan and no one knew what it was.. maybe it was covid-19...". If it were here IN THIS FORM all along.. we would have had WORSE transmission than we are seeing now... and should have had similar downstream things... surges of people needing hospitalization, deaths, etc.

If ANOTHER form of the virus was already here... as long as that strain didn't mutate into what we have now... it's immaterial. And the scientists are able to trace the strains to know if something is a continuity or not.

 

[flynnibus]

Many people were sick earlier in the year and it wasn’t the seasonal flu or cold.

Nor did it present the kind of transmission and spread issues that this virus is showing now. So please stop thinking 'because someone got sick and no one knew what it was.... it must have been covid-19'

People get sick by viri ALL THE TIME and it's never followed up. Just because there was 'a virus going around' does not mean it was THIS virus going around.

 

[DCBaker]

"The first animal in the United States has tested a positive for the novel coronavirus, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo.

Nadia, a 4-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo, has tested positive for COVID-19. She, her sister Azul, two Amur tigers, and three African lions had developed a dry cough and all are expected to recover.

This positive COVID-19 test for the tiger was confirmed by USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory, based in Ames, Iowa.

The zoo tested the cat out of an abundance of caution and will ensure any knowledge they gain about COVID-19 will contribute to the world’s continuing understanding of this novel coronavirus."

"None of the zoo’s snow leopards, cheetahs, clouded leopard, Amur leopard, puma or serval are showing any signs of illness. The cats were infected by a person caring for them who was asymptomatically infected with the virus or before that person developed symptoms. Appropriate preventive measures are now in place for all staff who are caring for them, and the other cats in the four WCS zoos, to prevent further exposure of any other zoo cats."

Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for COVID-19

BRONX NY, NEW YORK (WIAT) — The first animal in the United States has tested a positive for the novel coronavirus, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo. Nadia, a 4-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zo…

www.kron4.com

ETA - Statement from the USDA added.

USDA APHIS | USDA Statement on the Confirmation of COVID-19 in a Tiger in New York

www.aphis.usda.gov

 

[flynnibus]

"The first animal in the United States has tested a positive for the novel coronavirus, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo.

Nadia, a 4-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo, has tested positive for COVID-19. She, her sister Azul, two Amur tigers, and three African lions had developed a dry cough and all are expected to recover.

This positive COVID-19 test for the tiger was confirmed by USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory, based in Ames, Iowa.

The zoo tested the cat out of an abundance of caution and will ensure any knowledge they gain about COVID-19 will contribute to the world’s continuing understanding of this novel coronavirus."

Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for COVID-19

BRONX NY, NEW YORK (WIAT) — The first animal in the United States has tested a positive for the novel coronavirus, a tiger at the Bronx Zoo. Nadia, a 4-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zo…

www.kron4.com

Consistent with some findings from this - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.015347v1

(Note, I have not fully vetted that material... just pointing to another that referenced cats vs other animals)

 

[Angel Ariel]

PG County don't care...

It isn’t just PG. I’m on the VA side, and we went for a walk near our house today and saw a Scout troop out hiking together,and not even doing the 6 ft. Apart. I mentioned earlier that the park parking lots here are closed and we’ve been told for weeks now not to drive to parks to walk the trails, to use the onesWe can walk go. There’s 200 miles of trails. Yet TODAY, people are still driving to the major county parks, parking on the side of the road and walking in, to the point that the shoulders on the major roads leading to these parks are filled with parked cars.

as a family with a high risk child, it’s infuriating watchingso many the rules, knowingits just going to extend the amount of time we have to do this.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

knowing it's just going to extend the amount of time we have to do this.

Is it though? I thought the whole idea of flattening the curve is to extend the time so hospitals don’t get over run?

 

[hopemax]

Do we know with good certainty the guy in Washington state was the actual beginning for the outbreak in the US? Since it appears China wasn’t completely forthcoming with when it started there, is there any chance it actually started here in, say, November instead of January? Would that put us, on average because each state is a bit different, peaking now instead of 4-6 weeks, or whatever it is, from now? Just curious if anyone has any info on this.

The epidemiologists who are gene sequencing and looking at the small mutation markers, say it started in China in November. Italy and Washington in early-mid January. There is a place https://nextstrain.org/ that keeps releasing updated, the phylogeny, which is like a family tree for the virus. But I am not an epidemiologist, so interpreting it is not my thing. I know the red parts of the tree, are the spread in the US.

The people who say it must have started earlier, are doctors and people who were sick. It's obvious to me, there was something else running around during this cold & flu season that lead to increased rates of pneumonia. However, since everyone is all focused on this, determining what the other thing was is on back burner. So far these people have not presented genetic evidence that it was COVID-19. With it being still so difficult to get proper testing, the people with COVID-19 symptoms and approval for testing, are still mostly testing negative by huge margins, I think that shows more proof that there is something else running around. Theoretically, these people should have already been tested for flu, so it wasn't that either. Common cold is like 200 different viruses both rhino and corona. I assume some are worse than others, and this is just a bad year.

Once we get the antibody test, it will help filter out who had COVID-19 and who had the other thing. But for now people want to believe this was worse early, so we can get to recovery faster. IMO, if it was around earlier, the hospitals who were, at that point unprepared for waves of sick patients weren't reporting waves of sick patients and deaths. Perhaps, more patients than usual in a normal cold & flu season, but manageable. Not hallways, and ERs full of sick people, and refrigerator trucks full of dead people. In places with widespread COVID-19 outbreaks, these are the things we find.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Is it though? I thought the whole idea of flattening the curve is to extend the time so hospitals don’t get over run?

This behavior won’t flatten the curve. This behavior will still eventually result in a peak that will overwhelm the system if people don’t stop. It’s making everything the rest of us have been doing by following the rules rather useless. And also givinv those of us that do follow the rules less to do, as it results in stricter and stricter measures And more closures. That’s my frustration. I could have worded it better.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

This behavior won’t flatten the curve. This behavior will still eventually result in a peak that will overwhelm the system if people don’t stop. It’s making everything the rest of us have been doing by following the rules rather useless. And also givinv those of us that do follow the rules less to do, as it results in stricter and stricter measures And more closures. That’s my frustration. I could have worded it better.

I agree 100%.

 

[peter11435]

This behavior won’t flatten the curve. This behavior will still eventually result in a peak that will overwhelm the system if people don’t stop. It’s making everything the rest of us have been doing by following the rules rather useless. And also givinv those of us that do follow the rules less to do, as it results in stricter and stricter measures And more closures. That’s my frustration. I could have worded it better.

I think you misunderstood his post

 

[Bartattack]

Is it though? I thought the whole idea of flattening the curve is to extend the time so hospitals don’t get over run?

yes it is. When you have a lockdown you will start to see the effect after 2 - 3 weeks... but if some people are still not really sticking to the social distancing and lockdown rules, then the peak will just shift and take longer to reach...

this is a good example. The city of Lodi in italy had a lockdown on 23rd of february... and the city of Bergamo didn't have a lockdown untill march 8th.

In Belgium we had a lockdown around march 14th.... and today we had the first signs of a stabilisation in the curve. People are pretty good in following the lockdown rules.... eveybody seems to realize it's importance...

 

[GoofGoof]

Is it though? I thought the whole idea of flattening the curve is to extend the time so hospitals don’t get over run?

Social distancing does spread the number of cases over a longer period of time vs doing nothing and letting the virus run it’s course, but it also reduces the total number of people infected. So it doesn’t just flatten the curve by spreading the cases out it also reduces the total number meaning the curve is both flatter and smaller. Failed social distancing is the worst case scenario. You still spread things out longer but not enough to flatten the curve and not enough to reduce the amount of cases overall so you end up overrunning the hospitals anyway but over a longer period of time then if you did nothing and let the virus run it’s course.

 

[danlb_2000]

I pretty much gave up on online grocery orders. Even if you get a pickup time for a few weeks out (they stopped all delivery near me) literally half the order is missing. They have gone to “no substitutions” too so if you pick a specific brand of 1% milk they won’t replace it with whatever brand they happen to have. 2 times in a row the order was missing all meats, milk and a bunch of other stuff. All of it was available going into the store. I’m sure it’s overwhelming to work there during these times, but they really should just shut down online orders if it doesn’t work.

Yeah, we tried out Instacart, the first order went well, the second not as well. I may also be giving up on online ordering. When I do go out for things I have so far been sticking to smaller stores.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Yeah, we tried out Instacart, the first order went well, the second not as well. I may also be giving up on online ordering. When I do go out for things I have so far been sticking to smaller stores.

We're having better luck at the regular supermarkets near us if we get there super early (which honestly, isn't our favorite thing), but selection is still super limited, and if you wait until just a little bit too late, they'll be out of a lot of things.

 

[flynnibus]

yes it is.

don't worry.. questioning time and 'flattening the curve' is just another talking point being circulated because the chart seems contradicting. Reality is simple diagram is meant to be simple... and not talk about the other variables. But the challengers need ammo.. so here we are...

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

But the challengers need ammo.. so here we are...

Huh? I wasn’t challenging... i was just asking if people going on a hike is actually extending the time since the whole point of the Safer at home order is to slow everything down.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Huh? I wasn’t challenging... i was just asking if people going on a hike is actually extending the time since the whole point of the Safer at home order is to slow everything down.

As long as they maintain social distancing from those who aren't in their household, I would say they aren't extending the time-frame of the shut-downs.

 

[GoofGoof]

Huh? I wasn’t challenging... i was just asking if people going on a hike is actually extending the time since the whole point of the Safer at home order is to slow everything down.

My advice is just use common sense. If it’s a crowded area avoid it. If you even have to ask yourself the question of whether you should do it the answer is probably no. Taking a walk is good for you physically and mentally. It‘s also possible for many to walk around your block. I’m avoiding going out anywhere that’s not necessary. When I say “going out“ I mean in my car driving somewhere. This isn’t about interpreting the rules and trying to determine if something fits in the rules technically or not, it’s a simple concept. Stay home unless you need to be out. The other thing is that the 6 foot rule on social distancing is a guideline for casual contact in a place like a grocery store while passing by or waiting in a line. It’s not meant to be taken as a literal safe zone. I’ve seen stories of people having block parties where they measure out 6 foot apart squares for people to sit so neighbors can get together. Just stay home. Call someone on the phone if you really need to talk.

As far as flattening the curve and social distancing, we are doing it for ourselves to an extent but the better reason to do it is for the people on the front line, the first responders, the healthcare workers, even the retail workers deemed essential. They are all putting their health and lives on the line to take care of us and keep us safe, healthy and fed. We can all give up a little pleasure and just avoid unnecessary contact with others for a short period of time.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Coronavirus scammers set up fake testing sites to profit off pandemic

'Capitalizing on this crisis to reap illicit profits or otherwise preying on Americans is reprehensible and will not be tolerated'

www.google.com

Then we have these people..

 

[5thGenTexan]

It isn’t just PG. I’m on the VA side, and we went for a walk near our house today and saw a Scout troop out hiking together,and not even doing the 6 ft. Apart. I mentioned earlier that the park parking lots here are closed and we’ve been told for weeks now not to drive to parks to walk the trails, to use the onesWe can walk go. There’s 200 miles of trails. Yet TODAY, people are still driving to the major county parks, parking on the side of the road and walking in, to the point that the shoulders on the major roads leading to these parks are filled with parked cars.

as a family with a high risk child, it’s infuriating watchingso many the rules, knowingits just going to extend the amount of time we have to do this.

I am a Cubmaster for a Cub Scout Pack, we have been directed to not even have meetings in person. We have been doing virtual meetings. Probably all summer camps will be cancelled.