Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[wdwfan22]

Here is a tid bit and all can take it anyway they want.

Last night my wife was talking to a cousin of hers that works in a Palm coast Florida hospital. She states the hospital is mobbed with folks saying they have “it”. Those who fit the criteria get tested. As of yesterday do you know how many people that were tested were positive......................... ZERO.

This person has no reason the give wrong or misleading info. I don’t know what to make of this.......

the same thing is happening at our hospital here. Mobs of people are wanting tested and we have only had 7 positives.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I think all "first hand" stories need to be put into perspective. There are areas that are being hit hard. And there you are going to read about shortages of staff, equipment etc. There are other areas that are not yet hit as hard, and they seem to be coping fine.

 

[polynesiangirl]

A large portion of people who have the means to visit WDW who are locking themselves down now aren’t going to suddenly be comfortable hopping on a plane, staying in a hotel and visiting crowded parks. People will ease back into life. Keep to themselves for a while then maybe visit a few favorite restaurants or a local mall. I think it will be several months before people will be comfortable traveling for long periods of time and that assumes no new surges of virus. I think late fall into the December holiday season could start to see an uptick in visitors but it may be a year or longer before we see a return to anything like normal crowds.

The one thing that could accelerate all of this is if they do come out with a test for antibodies and it’s proven that you are immune once infected more people could come out sooner. If the infection rate is really much higher than what the current testing shows a lot of us could be immune already.

Agreed. I have said to my husband more than once that even when everything (or more things, at least) are open again, it's going to be a while before I feel entirely confident enough to get on a plane -- especially as right now I have no way of knowing if anyone in my family has had the virus already and are now immune, which obviously would allay my fears if that were the case. We're not "high risk" per se, but a couple of us have medical histories re: (mild) respiratory issues that do give me a little pause and would keep me from wanting to be crowded into a line at WDW, for example, until we have more/better data to help me gauge what our actual risk would be (with full understanding that we're never "100%" safe from anything). While in all likelihood if any one of my immediate family members got sick from this thing, we'd almost surely be fine, I also don't especially want to spend my next Disney vacation crazy sick in my hotel room, or stuck in a hospital far away from my home, either.

We canceled our DCL cruise for next winter outright. I just couldn't imagine being OK with getting on a ship in the near future given that there are still people trapped on cruise ships right now. Maybe in another year or so.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

2 HAL ships just got permission to transit the canal. To get back to Lauderdale. 1 of those ships (Zaandam) is the one with 4 dead and over 100 infected.

 

[The Mom]

There are a lot of reasons why this could happen.
1) There are lots of other infectious respiratory viruses going around: colds, flus, etc.
2) The test is not 100% accurate. The viral load needs to be high enough to be detected in the test AND the test has to be conducted properly. This doesn't always happen. There are definitely false negatives. Once the virus progresses into the lungs, the test is also less likely to be picked up from the nasal swab (mucus or sputum would probably be more accurate)
3) Florida is earlier in the curve than some other states. Within a week or two, it will be much more obvious within the hospitals who is positive without even conducting testing. Clinical diagnosis.
4) Some people are just crazy and want to be tested even though they have no symptoms...

BUT: IF these individuals have coughs or fevers - they are likely infectious with SOMETHING and need to stay home regardless of a test result.

This ^^^^ And I'll be honest, unless I'm really sick I will not go to get tested, assume I have it, and quarantine myself - more than the shelter in place and only go out when absolutely necessary - that I'm already doing. I'm sure others feel the same, so the true numbers of those infected will always be an educated guess.

In NYC people have to wait in lines, outside, to get tested - no drive through. Again, not going to happen unless I were seriously ill.

 

[ifan]

Some additional inside info from the midwest:
1) Many hospitals are now requiring ALL staff to wear masks at ALL times.
2) All hospitals are expanding ICU capacities by turning other floors into ICU beds (Post-anesthesia recovery, surgery, etc)
3) The hospitals are right on the verge of a surge. Some expected it several days ago and it didn't quite happen, but it is starting to happen now.
4) Smaller hospitals are harder hit. A small suburban hospital might have only 12 ICU beds typically. Now they need dozens. Whereas, a large city academic center can much more easily expand by transforming other units or stealing staff from elsewhere.
5) Testing is improving but is still mainly happening in people who require hospitalization/inpatient services - which skews the numbers. Lots of people who are recovering at home just fine are not being tested. Hopefully the newly approved Abbott Point of Care test will start to add capacity tomorrow. (these machines are mainly located in urgent care or primary care physician offices around the country)

 

[DisneyCane]

Here is a tid bit and all can take it anyway they want.

Last night my wife was talking to a cousin of hers that works in a Palm coast Florida hospital. She states the hospital is mobbed with folks saying they have “it”. Those who fit the criteria get tested. As of yesterday do you know how many people that were tested were positive......................... ZERO.

This person has no reason the give wrong or misleading info. I don’t know what to make of this.......

I wouldn't make anything of it. It's anecdotal.

Anecdotal but backed up by the fact that less than 10% of the tests in Florida are positive so far (which jibes with the total USA data).

Part of the strain on the healthcare system is everyone wanting to get tested if they have a sniffle even though, other than for statistics, it really doesn't matter if they have COVID-19 or not if the symptoms are mild. Just assume you have it and self quarantine.

There are a lot of reasons why this could happen.
1) There are lots of other infectious respiratory viruses going around: colds, flus, etc.
2) The test is not 100% accurate. The viral load needs to be high enough to be detected in the test AND the test has to be conducted properly. This doesn't always happen. There are definitely false negatives. Once the virus progresses into the lungs, the test is also less likely to be picked up from the nasal swab (mucus or sputum would probably be more accurate)
3) Florida is earlier in the curve than some other states. Within a week or two, it will be much more obvious within the hospitals who is positive without even conducting testing. Clinical diagnosis.
4) Some people are just crazy and want to be tested even though they have no symptoms...

BUT: IF these individuals have coughs or fevers - they are likely infectious with SOMETHING and need to stay home regardless of a test result.

Agree with you last point. Curious where you are getting info about the test accuracy. Of course there will be some false negatives with any swab test. A blood test will definitely be more accurate to test for the presence of antibodies.

 

[GoofGoof]

Agreed. I have said to my husband more than once that even when everything (or more things, at least) are open again, it's going to be a while before I feel entirely confident enough to get on a plane -- especially as right now I have no way of knowing if anyone in my family has had the virus already and are now immune, which obviously would allay my fears if that were the case. We're not "high risk" per se, but a couple of us have medical histories re: (mild) respiratory issues that do give me a little pause and would keep me from wanting to be crowded into a line at WDW, for example, until we have more/better data to help me gauge what our actual risk would be (with full understanding that we're never "100%" safe from anything). While in all likelihood if any one of my immediate family members got sick from this thing, we'd almost surely be fine, I also don't especially want to spend my next Disney vacation crazy sick in my hotel room, or stuck in a hospital far away from my home, either.

We canceled our DCL cruise for next winter outright. I just couldn't imagine being OK with getting on a ship in the near future given that there are still people trapped on cruise ships right now. Maybe in another year or so.

The cruise line is going to take a while. Probably either a vaccine or a complete natural disappearance of the virus. In the beginning people won’t want to stray too far from home until they are sure the worst is over, especially on an airplane.

 

[Shouldigo12]

Some additional inside info from the midwest:
1) Many hospitals are now requiring ALL staff to wear masks at ALL times.
2) All hospitals are expanding ICU capacities by turning other floors into ICU beds (Post-anesthesia recovery, surgery, etc)
3) The hospitals are right on the verge of a surge. Some expected it several days ago and it didn't quite happen, but it is starting to happen now.
4) Smaller hospitals are harder hit. A small suburban hospital might have only 12 ICU beds typically. Now they need dozens. Whereas, a large city academic center can much more easily expand by transforming other units or stealing staff from elsewhere.
5) Testing is improving but is still mainly happening in people who require hospitalization/inpatient services - which skews the numbers. Lots of people who are recovering at home just fine are not being tested. Hopefully the newly approved Abbott Point of Care test will start to add capacity tomorrow. (these machines are mainly located in urgent care or primary care physician offices around the country)

"The Midwest" is kind of vague. Can you tell us where, specifically, this is happening?

 

[xdan0920]

I think all "first hand" stories need to be put into perspective. There are areas that are being hit hard. And there you are going to read about shortages of staff, equipment etc. There are other areas that are not yet hit as hard, and they seem to be coping fine.

The stories here are that the bodies are literally piling up in the hospitals. I’ve been told by a nurse that her hospital resembles a horror movie.

Now, those are SCARY words. The panicky side of my psyche is literally going insane. The other part of me, the calm and collected part wants to know why that is. There’s been 140 deaths in NJ, even if 75% of them are in Bergen County.... don’t think it’s that high...where we have 5 largish hospitals. That’s like 20 per Hospital, why does 20 dead turn a hospital into a horror movie?

The lack of information, real, solid information is what’s the worst.

 

[GoofGoof]

"The Midwest" is kind of vague. Can you tell us where, specifically, this is happening?

Everywhere that they call soda “pop”

 

[Jwink]

Totally off topic— since my husband is a cast member we have always wanted to do a Disney Cruise but we don’t know how to utilize the discount or the cheapest time to book. Assuming he has a job at the end of all of this we’d love to book one eventually. Any advice? We know the discount is good but we’ve heard you have to pay upfront and can only be booked a few weeks out?

 

[Lilofan]

The cruise line is going to take a while. Probably either a vaccine or a complete natural disappearance of the virus. In the beginning people won’t want to stray too far from home until they are sure the worst is over, especially on an airplane.

Taking a cruise would be the last thing on my mind. That's taking your life into your hands. It would take a miracle to employ all cast who work at DCL after April.

 

[John park hopper]

The cruise line is going to take a while. Probably either a vaccine or a complete natural disappearance of the virus. In the beginning people won’t want to stray too far from home until they are sure the worst is over, especially on an airplane.

We had a cruise (HA) scheduled for this past March 16 which we canceled And planned on rescheduling for next March. Wife and I have already discussed holding off. We may well see a resurgence in the fall--praying we don't

 

[Shouldigo12]

Everywhere that they call soda “pop”

And where instead of 'oops" we say "ope".

 

[marni1971]

Totally off topic— since my husband is a cast member we have always wanted to do a Disney Cruise but we don’t know how to utilize the discount or the cheapest time to book. Assuming he has a job at the end of all of this we’d love to book one eventually. Any advice? We know the discount is good but we’ve heard you have to pay upfront and can only be booked a few weeks out?

Generally the best cast rates are for dates a few days, weeks or a month away (aside from at the moment). Payment is only upfront I believe. But the prices are usually very very very discounted.

 

[marni1971]

especially on an airplane.

We can’t wait to get on a plane. Assuming we can.

(aircraft air contrary to popular belief is very clean. It’s the surfaces you have to be careful about)

 

[ifan]

Agree with you last point. Curious where you are getting info about the test accuracy. Of course there will be some false negatives with any swab test. A blood test will definitely be more accurate to test for the presence of antibodies.

Other countries have put the accuracy at 90% but I don't even believe that. The sensitivity/specificity of the test is lower and is different depending on the lab and equipment. This information is not public. Could be as low as 70%. There is a reason that China and SK require TWO negative tests to give the go-ahead to release from hospital/quarantine. They don't trust the first one.

Lots of friends who are doctors in hospitals have given me examples of someone hospitalized testing negative first but they didn't believe the test so they tested again and got a positive. The doctors in NY who have learned the most have started relying more on clinical diagnosis for the sickest patients in ICU (it is becoming more obvious as they learn more.)

 

[ifan]

"The Midwest" is kind of vague. Can you tell us where, specifically, this is happening?

The two hardest hit areas in the midwest are Detroit metro and Chicago metro - that is where most of this is happening.

 

[Lilofan]

Trump extends virus guidelines, braces US for big death toll

WASHINGTON (AP) — Bracing the nation for a coronavirus death toll that could exceed 100,000 people, President Donald Trump extended restrictive social distancing guidelines through April, bowing to public health experts who presented him with even more dire projections for the expanding coronavirus

apnews.com

Dr. Fauci with grim estimates