What's Still On and What's Now Off

[CastAStone]

Sensationalist, perhaps. Certainly assets would be sold first to avert that, and the company pared down to whatever the whims of the board are to define as core products.

It’s impossible to say with any degree of certainty what companies will ‘weather the storm’ and which ones won’t, because we don’t know the scope of the storm yet.

We do know what to what extent Disney can weather the storm because they are a public company. They can weather it to about $80 billion dollars:

I’m sorry but that’s nonsense.

Their last 10-Q showed them with something like $80 billion dollars in equity they could borrow against before they went chapter 11. Parks and Resorts have ANNUAL expenses of $17 billion (source: 10-K). And that’s when they’re running. Studio $8 billion/year, again, when it’s running.

They could sit quietly for a LONG time before we’re taking bankruptcy.

Lets not get sensationalist.

Tell that to the OP and Mansion. Not my words, bruv.

The OP is wrong. The name of the game is staying alive. Disney can find cash by:

• Issue more debt (this alone will be enough for at least 2, probably 3 years, and people will give it to them because in normal times they are a cash printing machine)
• Cut the dividend
• Stopping movie production
• Lay off park staff
• Lay off white collar staff (including simply accelerating their 21CF integration)
• Selling ABC
• Selling various foreign TV holdings
• Selling their stake in A&E Networks
• Selling some (or if things are dire, all) of their stake in ESPN
• Selling non-core IP properties
• Selling various parts of 21CF that are probably worth more to someone else anyway (Searchlight?)
• Etc

They just need to generate enough cash to stay afloat. They are very likely to find people willing to extend any large debts that come due - nothing has changed about the fundamentals of the company or it's ability to make money long term. This isn't a normal situation. And they have EIGHTY BILLION DOLLARS IN UNLEVERAGED ASSETS so again this whole exercise is academic.

 

[flynnibus]

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Disney could file for bankruptcy to do some restructuring. That's different than saying they would be bankrupt and go out of business, of course.

To restructure tho you gotta show liabilities greater than your assets... That's gonna be tough to do for Disney

 

[ToTBellHop]

That seems about right. The symptoms show up 5 days after exposure. No loss of smell or taste?

I mentioned in my list—yes, loss of taste. Very strange.

 

[flynnibus]

I doubt it.

This isn't winter hibernation... millions are being laid off... tens of thousands of businesses are being shutdown for extended periods of time. When every business starts reporting massive misses and weak forecasts.. get ready for the second punch. The promise of loans and stimulus do not replace real earnings and forecasts. You'll see a bear market outlook... which will impact the workers.

 

[techgeek]

They just need to generate enough cash to stay afloat. They are very likely to find people willing to extend any large debts that come due - nothing has changed about the fundamentals of the company or it's ability to make money long term. This isn't a normal situation. And they have EIGHTY BILLION DOLLARS IN UNLEVERAGED ASSETS so again this whole exercise is academic.

Are we confident in saying that Parks and Resorts remains (and will continue to remain, in a 'save the company' scenario) a "core" business to the board of directors?

 

[ToTBellHop]

This isn't winter hibernation... millions are being laid off... tens of thousands of businesses are being shutdown for extended periods of time. When every business starts reporting massive misses and weak forecasts.. get ready for the second punch. The promise of loans and stimulus do not replace real earnings and forecasts. You'll see a bear market outlook... which will impact the workers.

No. We will be raring to go by Easter, didn’t you hear?!??

 

[WondersOfLife]

So this is all not true correct? Aside from potential delays.

 

[UNCgolf]

To restructure tho you gotta show liabilities greater than your assets... That's gonna be tough to do for Disney

Maybe not quite as hard as you might think, especially if parks and resorts are closed into or through the summer and they're also bringing in little to no revenue from movies and ESPN. Do a little corporate accounting magic and see what happens...

Seriously, though, I certainly don't expect it to happen or even think it's remotely likely to happen. I just don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility depending on how bad things get. It's far more likely they'd break up and sell off parts of the company before they were close to needing to file Chapter 11, though.

 

[flynnibus]

No. We will be raring to go by Easter, didn’t you hear?!??

I can't even begin to characterize the pixie dusters who think this will just magically blow over once the bans lift.

Has someone been promising them the years I've lost in savings? Has someone been promising them restitution for all the lost income? Has someone been promising them some reality distortion gun that will make all their employers fat and giddy?

 

[ToTBellHop]

I can't even begin to characterize the pixie dusters who think this will just magically blow over once the bans lift.

Has someone been promising them the years I've lost in savings? Has someone been promising them restitution for all the lost income? Has someone been promising them some reality distortion gun that will make all their employers fat and giddy?

No, but they are expecting a check from the government that will apparently cover lost wages, health insurance, and monthly Annual Pass payments. We just need to get through this quickly so we can focus on what is truly important—riding Dumbo and planning a Disney Cruise (just not with Grandma and Grandpa, obviously).

 

[Darth Snips]

Ok, let’s unpack the deets from the guy who is certain Covid-19 is a biological weapon from China.

1) yes, the parks will reopen like that. I said so a week ago
2) there are no serious discussions of “abandoning” GotG. Give me a break. Delay a quarter? Sure
3) Epcot will get “finished”, but projects on the fringes could get delayed a bit, like Play. The spine must be finished and will be
4) no indoor shows, dining cuts, remove buffets, add BGs to more rides, cut face characters—all true, like I said a week ago
5) not opening all four parks would be news to me
6) rooms will be pulled at resorts to help in distancing and “clean what we are using”
7) thermal scanners under consideration but serious concerns—this ain’t China. In the USA, they struggle to get people to stop bringing guns in!
8) wiping vehicles isn’t as bad as you’d think for capacity. They better start hoarding Clorox wipes now...

Have you heard anything about some of the other cancellations OP mentioned? Like Poppins, Star Wars Hotel, etc?

 

[wannabeBelle]

Interesting thread, Glad to hear you are feeling better @MansionButler84. Marie

 

[WondersOfLife]

Side note... Facebook WDW annual passholders are laughing all over this thread.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Only time will tell what will happen. My next trip comes up in September. We will see where things are at by then. I got my ADRs without a problem.

Wait...you got dining reservations 6 months from now during a slow month in a plague?

I bet you could reserve a mouseboat at the poly right now too...no problem

 

[disney4life2008]

Wait...you got dining reservations 6 months from now during a slow month in a plague?

I bet you could reserve a mouseboat at the poly right now too...no problem

LOL exactly.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well....if worst comes to worst....they don't really need cast members from other countries. They can just use local cast members. Yah it would ruin the point of World Showcase but it would still bring in money.

I think you’re underestimating just how much they use college and internationals for cheap, NSA labor.

Side note... Facebook WDW annual passholders are laughing all over this thread.

Clarify?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can't even begin to characterize the pixie dusters who think this will just magically blow over once the bans lift.

Has someone been promising them the years I've lost in savings? Has someone been promising them restitution for all the lost income? Has someone been promising them some reality distortion gun that will make all their employers fat and giddy?

I don't disagree with your point...But this seems “less judgemental” than you typically are about TWDC.

You ok?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Are we confident in saying that Parks and Resorts remains (and will continue to remain, in a 'save the company' scenario) a "core" business to the board of directors?

It’s about 40% of the overall revenue now...

Yeah...that’s “core”

 

[WondersOfLife]

Clarify?

I shared the OG's post onto a big WDW Annual Passholder FB group and basically everyone's having a ball.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

No. We will be raring to go by Easter, didn’t you hear?!??

We're going to have the BIGGEST, most tremendous, excellent, and above all AMERICAN Easter...ever!

And Mexico's gonna pay for it!