Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

[DrAlice]

So... someone with better medical knowledge can correct me on this...

But over the weekend I was talking to some folks who have long careers working in hospitals and they seemed to think that once the weather warms up, it should greatly reduce the spread of the disease or even its ability to survive.

I have a trip planned to WDW in June and they all but guaranteed that this shouldn't impact it by that point. I want to believe them, lol... but, I mean, who knows.

There has been some research that shows that weather does have a direct impact on viral spread. I think the idea behind this has to do with two things. 1) Warmer air temperatures means that your nasal passages are warmer. This means your immune response in that area works faster (molecules move more quickly when you heat them up) so you can fight stuff off better. 2) Warmer temperatures mean people spend less time indoors in close contact with each other, so there is less potential for spread (and my sunshine = more vitamin D).

All of that is just lovely on paper. However, if those really are the things at play, does any of this mean much for those of us in areas with mild winters? Maybe???? *shrug*

 

[TP2000]

So... someone with better medical knowledge can correct me if this is totally wrong...

But over the weekend I was talking to some folks who have 30+ year careers working in hospitals, and they seemed to think that once the weather warms up, it should greatly reduce the spread of the disease or even its ability to survive.

I have a trip planned to WDW in June and they all but guaranteed that this shouldn't impact it by that point. I want to believe them, lol... but, I mean, who knows.

It's why the "Flu Season" generally lasts from November thru March. Once the weather warms and people stop spending so much time indoors, in addition to warmer and more humid weather, the ability for viruses to linger and transmit from person to person lessens considerably.

Which is why this is so entertaining as it reaches its peak Freak Out Mode in March. If this was early November and we were headed into a long, cold winter, it would be even worse. But the panic and freak out is interesting to watch in March with spring on the way.

 

[Tinkwings]

It's why the "Flu Season" generally lasts from November thru March. Once the weather warms and people stop spending so much time indoors, in addition to warmer and more humid weather, the ability for viruses to linger and transmit from person to person lessens considerably.

Which is why this is so entertaining as it reaches its peak Freak Out Mode in March. If this was early November and we were headed into a long, cold winter, it would be even worse. But the panic and freak out is interesting to watch in March with spring on the way.

March Madness...….. happens every year!

 

[Nirya]

So... someone with better medical knowledge can correct me if this is totally wrong...

But over the weekend I was talking to some folks who have 30+ year careers working in hospitals, and they seemed to think that once the weather warms up, it should greatly reduce the spread of the disease or even its ability to survive.

I have a trip planned to WDW in June and they all but guaranteed that this shouldn't impact it by that point. I want to believe them, lol... but, I mean, who knows.

Traditionally, the active periods for viruses tend to die down during the summer months, as warm weather acts as something of inhibitor on those viruses.

That said, that does not mean the virus goes away. It is essentially in hibernation, and can still be transmitted between humans, only to activate in better climates for the virus. This is basically what happens with the flu every year, with the added benefit that the flu will undergo some level of mutation during this period. COVID-19 will probably undergo something similar.

 

[Mac Tonight]

It's why the "Flu Season" generally lasts from November thru March. Once the weather warms and people stop spending so much time indoors, in addition to warmer and more humid weather, the ability for viruses to linger and transmit from person to person lessens considerably.

Which is why this is so entertaining as it reaches its peak Freak Out Mode in March. If this was early November and we were headed into a long, cold winter, it would be even worse. But the panic and freak out is interesting to watch in March with spring on the way.

It's interesting that being isolated indoors is what would cause diseases to spread, and not everyone out enjoying each other's company in crowded places. I mean, isn't it more common that when you're sick, you're advised to stay home and not be out in public... ?

::shrugs::

 

[DrAlice]

First death in CA today. Elderly with underlying health issues, number 11 country wide.

Placer County announces death of patient with COVID-19 | Placer County, CA

Placer County Public Health is reporting that a resident has died of COVID-19. The person, an elderly adult with underlying health conditions, was the second confirmed case of COVID-19 in the county and is now the first to die from the illness in California.

www.placer.ca.gov

This could lead to more proactive reactions in the state though as it's starting to hit closer to the park.

I've tried hard to remain calm about this whole situation, but I'm not gonna lie... this is very unsettling to me as it is in my neck of the woods. I have contact with many people that work at that hospital. I sincerely hope they have good containment protocols.

*runs off to wash her hands for the 800th time today*

 

[Tinkwings]

No cases yet in my state but my friends have been telling me of spotting overflowing carts of wipes and beans and tp etc at local Costcos and other such stores.....who NEEDS 10,000 wipes?!?!? Tried to purchase my usual purse size little hand sanitzer because I always put one in each bag and basically Amazon was wiped out of bout every form but some spray versions which I don't care for. I know it gives some people comfort but.….our local grocery chain is limiting wipes and TP purchases now. Hope DrAlice is able to keep a decent personal space between herself and contacts and remains calm knowing the probability of the majority of those contacts carrying the virus is not too high....get sleep, breath air outside only (kidding) and continue with the hand washing protocol followed by your favorite lotion to sooth the irritation of intensive washing.....and pray.

 

[Darkbeer1]

So, I haven't had a chance to log in the last few days due to the election, and too many meetings. I am waiting for the 5 PM Orange County ROV update, then a 6 PM meeting.

Well, Anaheim did take a hit this week, one of the biggest conventions of the year was "postponed".

Coronavirus fears prompt postponement of Natural Products Expo West
The event, which was planned for Tuesday through Sunday at the Anaheim Convention Center, will be rescheduled for later this year, organizers said.

www.ocregister.com




One interesting thing, LA Unified admitted they are working on plans to temporary shut down camuses for a few weeks, and replace them in the summer. And other school districts have also looked into this.

What this does to the Summer Tourist Season is a big question.

Now, testing kits are being made at a rapid rate, and many expect to see a rise in known cases, since it will be much easier to confirm.

One reason Anaheim/Orange County has been following this closely is the impact it can have on tourism. As it is not only the possible spread of the disease that is a worry, it is also the impacts to how and where tourists will travel to. And we saw that in the very quick decision to not hold the NPEW. And it also holds true to Sporting Events, Concerts, and other events that bring many people into close contact.

Nobody wants folks to get sick/die, and yes, folks will probably err on the side of caution.

Heck, you buy some extra water, food and toliet paper. Well, officials have been telling you to do that for years in case of emergencies like Earthquakes, Hurricanes, etc. Just make sure to rotate them. I have been doing it for decades in a well stocked pantry, bottled water, etc. And I learned it from my father.

But what happens when the barteder/server/valet gets their hours cut due to lack of business? Where does the replacement in wages/tips come from?

As I said earlier, the best thing officials can do is identify and isolate, and prepare for the possibility of COVID-19 spreading, and that includes economic impacts.

We are entering a key few weeks, and what happens can impact the Tourism and related businesses for the rest of the year.

 

[Mickeyboof]

 

[Stretch44]

Here's the thing, how many people get the flu and are never reported?

You keep saying "Oh well it's because there are cases that are mild enough to not be reported." but that's also the case with the flu. How many people bundle up at home, eat chicken soup for a week and recover? I know I have when I caught the flu in the past. I didn't rush to the ER, call the CDC and make sure they knew I had the flu to add it to the number of reported cases.

Yes there will be undiagnosed cases, but there are also those undiagnosed cases with the flu. The only real info I can find on undiagnosed flu cases is for New Zealand and says about 80% of potential (aka flu-like) cases are never properly diagnosed.



Not to insult you or anything, but I would trust the WHO over a poster on a disney forum any day.

Actually, that's not true. The CDC does not not provide actual numbers for people who get the flu. The CDC uses a mathematical model to give an estimate of cumulative numbers of the flu. So, when we hear 32,000,000, that is an estimate and not actual reported illnesses. The actual reported is most likely much lower. The below link explains it in more detail.

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

Right now the CDC is reporting actual numbers of people diagnosed with Coronovirus because there is no way to provide an estimate like the CDC can with the flu. There is a lot of data out there on the flu that allows the CDC to provide estimates.

So, making the statement that we really don't know death rate of Coronovirus is accurate. It does appear to be more lethal than the flu, but I also believe that 3% is a little high.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

 

[Darkbeer1]

Are hospitals prepared for coronavirus surge in Southern California?

Officials at several large health systems say they are as ready as they can be

www.ocregister.com

>>“In the event of a stay-at-home quarantine of otherwise healthy individuals, we can use our physicians and some of our staff in virtual visits by telephone or video,” Gin said of Kaiser’s backup plan. If there is significant demand, she added, “we will ask workers who are part-time to consider increasing their work time, and those who are on vacation or on time-off to look at returning early or deferring time away from work.”


One way to overwhelm a hospital system would be to admit people with mild coronavirus, Bailey said.


People who come to the emergency room for evaluation and are mildly ill can be directed to go home and be monitored there: “They don’t have to be admitted.”


More than anything else, like a mantra, health officials repeated the standard instructions for preventing the spread of a communicable disease: Stay home if sick. Cover coughs and sneezes. Wash hands frequently. Don’t touch your face.


“Those are the big, big things that people can do,” Quick said.<<

 

[jerryp49]

I am curious about what is going to happen over Spring Break.... and the Dapper Day convention the week after Easter

 

[TP2000]

I just read an interesting article in Slate how the current 3.4% mortality rate from the WHO is likely inaccurate. The mortality rate in China has fallen to 0.4% or less now that many cases are being reported and diagnosed there, the vast majority of them resulting in nothing more than mild cold or flu symptoms.

A key paragraph is here...

"We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. If anything, it underscores just how early we are in this."

COVID-19’s Mortality Rate Isn’t As High As We Think

We need to be thinking about nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes.

slate.com

 

[JD2000]

I just read an interesting article in Slate how the current 3.4% mortality rate from the WHO is likely inaccurate. The mortality rate in China has fallen to 0.4% or less now that many cases are being reported and diagnosed there, the vast majority of them resulting in nothing more than mild cold or flu symptoms.

A key paragraph is here...

"We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. If anything, it underscores just how early we are in this."

COVID-19’s Mortality Rate Isn’t As High As We Think

We need to be thinking about nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes.

slate.com

I do hope Disney becomes educated of this and does not close any more parks.

 

[Nirya]

I’d actually guess that 3.4% estimate is accurate based off the entire span of the disease’s run. And as stated prior, yes China’s rate is drastically down, but it started extremely high and is down now thanks to policies (both good and bad) that other countries are not adopting yet.

 

[BrianLo]

The way the world is reacting, you wouldn't know the active disease burden peaked 16 days ago and has been on a daily decline ever since. But that's not a sexy headline

 

[BrianLo]

As an aside, my 60 day FP window opened and things were much harder to get ideal times than last time I went to WDW in 2017. Anecdotal as a measure of attendance I know, but it seems like it will be busy.

 

[Curious Constance]

The way the world is reacting, you wouldn't know the active disease burden peaked 16 days ago and has been on a daily decline ever since. But that's not a sexy headline

You’ve got to get out there and give everyone the facts! Bring the world back to sanity, please!!!

It is MUCH too hard to find good information. Most people get their facts from Facebook headlines, and they don’t break anything down or put things into perspective at all.

 

[Curious Constance]

Maybe if we make a baby Yoda Coronavirus meme people will listen.