Monorail Expansion - Real reason it won't happen

[captainkidd]

Sorry if I missed the thread on this and it's been posted before. I found this very interesting. This thread comments on how the reason most feel the monorail has never been expanded is cost, and that's the truth. However, the cost of $1 million per mile that always comes up is false. It's actually closer to $100 million per mile. Check this out:

http://www.yesterland.com/monoraillegends.html

 

[marni1971]

Sorry if I missed the thread on this and it's been posted before. I found this very interesting. This thread comments on how the reason most feel the monorail has never been expanded is cost, and that's the truth. However, the cost of $1 million per mile that always comes up is false. It's actually closer to $100 million per mile. Check this out:

http://www.yesterland.com/monoraillegends.html

I find that waaayyy too high.

 

[bgraham34]

This has been brought up many times on many threads. Even if it were 25 million a mile they still would not do it.

 

[C.FERNIE]

to be fair if disney wanted to they could build anything! im sure they probs do have plans to expand the monorail its just they probs have just as many reasons not to do it as they have to do it! like with many other projects someone needs to step up and really make them see the benefits! i think 100 million is a bit steep! its concrete and wires... they already have the actual monorails! :wave:

 

[WDW Monorail]

to be fair if disney wanted to they could build anything! im sure they probs do have plans to expand the monorail its just they probs have just as many reasons not to do it as they have to do it! like with many other projects someone needs to step up and really make them see the benefits! i think 100 million is a bit steep! its concrete and wires... they already have the actual monorails! :wave:

Any figure you see out there is an average for all aspects of construction per mile. This includes material for the beams, pylons, stations, electrical infrastructure, cost to clear and prepare land, additional maintenance and storage facilities. The list continues.

Disney has 12 monorails running on the current three lines. Adding additional lines will require more trains.

 

[sgtmgd]

Interesting "urban legends"

100 million per mile seems very high..but who knows. Ive often had this discussion..just seems that at some point Disney would expand the monorail..cost not withstanding. Seems that a line to Ak would make sense as its the only parl not currently connected by monorail or boat...or walking from other resorts.


good post!

 

[Master Yoda]

Regardless of whether the cost of the system is $1 million per mile, $100 million per mile or a billion gillion per mile, the real problem is return on investment. Disney has no problem spending money, they just want to make sure they make it back. They recently spent nearly a billion dollars on two new cruise ships. However, the difference in spending a billion on cruise ships vs a billion on monorail expansion is the cruise ships will make that billion back rather quickly. The monorail will never generate a dime.

Until we reach a point in time were Disney either has to build one or they can make an ROI, we will not see any significant monorail expansion.

 

[s8film40]

Regardless of whether the cost of the system is $1 million per mile, $100 million per mile or a billion gillion per mile, the real problem is return on investment. Disney has no problem spending money, they just want to make sure they make it back. They recently spent nearly a billion dollars on two new cruise ships. However, the difference in spending a billion on cruise ships vs a billion on monorail expansion is the cruise ships will make that billion back rather quickly. The monorail will never generate a dime.

Until we reach a point in time were Disney either has to build one or they can make an ROI, we will not see any significant monorail expansion.

Your probably right unfortunately, good thing they didn't think that way back when they were building WDW or they never would have built it. Really this is the real core of Disney's current problems is they can't think outside the box of ROI, this could ultimately be the catalyst of their demise.

 

[trr1]

http://www.monorails.org/index.html

here is a site that give some informantion about monorail costper mile and the year they were built http://www.monorails.org/tMspages/HowMuch.html
what its says its
How much does Monorail cost?
This is the number one question we receive at The Monorail Society. Unfortunately there is no simple answer. There are many variables which influence the price of building a monorail system (and most forms of rail transit). Factors include...


Total length of the system: In many cases, costs can be reduced the longer a system is.
Topography: Is the terrain flat or hilly, are there many roads or rivers to cross?
Location: What is the access for construction equipment? Will there be heavy traffic or other impediments to construction?
Utilities: Relocation of water mains, power lines, telephone lines, etc. can have a significant effect on cost increases.
Land: What amount of land needs to be purchased or easements need to be acquired?
Passenger requirements: What size and number of vehicles are required? How much time will they wait at stations?
Speed: What are the speed requirements of the system? Are there long enough distances between stations so that a higher speed is desired?
Number of Stations: Each additional station adds to the cost.
Special Structures: Will tunnels, bridges, overpass reconstruction or urban structures be a factor?
Geotechnical conditions: What are the subsurface conditions? They can have a major impact on foundation costs.
Environmental Mitigation: Will restoration, wildlife protection or sound walls be required?

the Las Vegas Monorail which has the Bombardier MVI cost $88 million/mile in 2004
it has 7 stations and 4 miles of track that would be about $352 million

 

[ScoutN]

Regardless of whether the cost of the system is $1 million per mile, $100 million per mile or a billion gillion per mile, the real problem is return on investment.

Like not changing shows since they are packed to the brim every night although the bulk of them have been here for years, right?

 

[sweetpee_1993]

In addition to all the costs already mentioned, there's the cost for engineering. Anything built has to start with surveys, field work/studies, drafting, all the way through detailed design and print issues. Any underground services that have to be worked around must be planned for. Power supply for these longer monorail lines will take substations, etc. Engineers in Orlando don't make anywhere near what they do in Houston but still, it's worth mentioning that part of any project budget will be a portion for engineering costs which are never inexpensive.

 

[Master Yoda]

Like not changing shows since they are packed to the brim every night although the bulk of them have been here for years, right?

Not really. A little better analogy is a multilevel parking garage. Multilevel parking garages are incredibly expensive to build. If you have the land, a regular, single level parking lot is exponentially less expensive to build, support and maintain. However, when you run out of room you have no choice but to eat the cost and go upwards. This is essentially what happened at DL when DCA was built or why US/IOA has had one from day one.

It is conceivable that WDW's attendance will reach a point where the current bus system can no longer keep up. When that happens Disney is going to
have to find a way to take pressure off the bus system. An expanded monorail service, or something similar would seem to be the logical choice. If that situation ever comes to pass Disney will have no choice but to do it, just like they had no choice but to build a parking garage to allow for DCA.

If the current rumors of DTD's expansion hold true we might be seeing the tip of this iceberg break the surface there.

 

[captainkidd]

Regardless of whether the cost of the system is $1 million per mile, $100 million per mile or a billion gillion per mile, the real problem is return on investment. Disney has no problem spending money, they just want to make sure they make it back. They recently spent nearly a billion dollars on two new cruise ships. However, the difference in spending a billion on cruise ships vs a billion on monorail expansion is the cruise ships will make that billion back rather quickly. The monorail will never generate a dime.

Until we reach a point in time were Disney either has to build one or they can make an ROI, we will not see any significant monorail expansion.

But there would be an IMMEDIATE ROI - Gasoline savings. Plus, they'd probably get more money for the resorts that the monorail stops at.

 

[sgtmgd]

a slight increase in resort rooms...an tix...mauby just .75 cents each...that would pay a good chunk of it...with little noticible impact to consumers

 

[Master Yoda]

But there would be an IMMEDIATE ROI - Gasoline savings. Plus, they'd probably get more money for the resorts that the monorail stops at.

Would you spend $40k on a new car to save about $1k in gas per year if you already have a perfectly good car?

 

[Master Yoda]

a slight increase in resort rooms...an tix...mauby just .75 cents each...that would pay a good chunk of it...with little noticible impact to consumers

That would come to about 7 -8 million per year. At that rate it would take 5-10 years to pay for about a mile of track.

 

[DisneyJoe]

But there would be an IMMEDIATE ROI - Gasoline savings. Plus, they'd probably get more money for the resorts that the monorail stops at.

Assuming they would put more resorts on a monorail line....or put the line close enough to an existing resort.

Recapture of gas savings would probably take decades - and you still couldn't replace the buses completely - they are still the most flexible in terms of routing around problems.

 

[Timekeeper]

...they are still the most flexible in terms of routing around problems.

...except for the problem of inconvenience.

 

[Master Yoda]

...except for the problem of inconvenience.

Maybe I have just been unlucky, but have found myself waiting for a monorail nearly every single time I have ridden one. I have rarely walked up to an open and waiting monorail that closed the doors and whisked me off to my destination the second I boarded.:shrug:

 

[DisneyJoe]

...except for the problem of inconvenience.

Not everyone feels inconvenienced by the buses. For me, they are thousands of times better than my NJ Transit rides each and every work day.

Which would you rather be on:

- a bus that loses power and needs to wait for another bus to come and take you to your destination

OR

- a monorail on a single beam in between stations that loses power (or even on a monorail that is behind the one that loses power, and has no alternate route)