Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[CoastalElite64]

And for those who enjoy the last of this summer's cherry-picked data to help explain away that loss in Burbank, here's some data that look backward at the early summer months, in addition to looking forward into September. This is "The Economy" and "The Weather" topics that had been used earlier this summer as reasons why many of Disney's movies were bombing or barely breaking even globally...

National 2025 Gross Domestic Product for Q2, And That Nation's Unemployment Rate for July, 2025

USA = +3.3% Growth, 4.2% Unemployment
Canada = -1.6% Decline, 6.9% Unemployment
Mexico = +0.6% Growth, 2.8% Unemployment
UK = +0.3% Growth, 4.7% Unemployment (reported quarterly)
France = +0.3% Growth, 7.5% Unemployment
West Germany = -0.3% Decline, 6.3% Unemployment
Japan = +0.3% Growth, 2.3% Unemployment
South Korea = +0.6% Growth, 2.4% Unemployment
Australia = +0.2% Growth, 4.2% Unemployment

Overall, the impact of The Economy on the box office was stronger at home but muted overseas. The USA went into the summer with modestly strong GDP growth and low unemployment, while the rest of the major box office markets overseas had anemic GDP growth or outright contraction and stubbornly high unemployment above 5.0%. Canada and Germany are suffering from both of those problems right now.

As far as the impact of The Weather on the box office, that heat wave that broiled everything east of the Rockies a month ago has turned into an early fall with unusually cool temps (and an early snowfall forecast) east of the Rockies. The west though finally broke out of the unusually cool June and July we had and got back to normal temps in August, with warmer than usual temps continuing into September in the northern Rockies.

This week, Seattle is forecast to have the same high temp as Key West, Florida! Unreal!

This video is actually a good example.


Not to mention a host of other problems middle and lower income people are experiencing with the economy.

 

[Nevermore525]

Easy $1B early projection for Disney. Or at the very least easy profit as this will likely have a low production budget:

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

whats the over/under on the runtime? 70 minutes?

 

[Disney Irish]

Easy $1B early projection for Disney. Or at the very least easy profit as this will likely have a low production budget:

Its being financed by the BBC, Disney is distributing it. So its a split between the two. Not that we'll know what that split is, but since its being distributed by Disney any box office will be attributed to Disney.

 

[Serpico Jones]

 

[Disney Irish]

Well since they were a studio long before they were a Parks company that is a little hard for that to happen now.

Also -

Parks Fans: We wish Disney would just sell the Parks to another company like OLC.

 

[Disney Analyst]

So basically, Wall Street is as dumb and short sighted as we knew they were...

 

[Disney Irish]

So basically, Wall Street is as dumb and short sighted as we knew they were...

Not that that was ever in doubt, but yeah. And that indicates that in the end Wall St doesn't really care if any Disney movies "fail" at the box office.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Not that that was ever in doubt, but yeah. And that indicates that in the end Wall St doesn't really care if any Disney movies "fail" at the box office.

I hate to use the word... but synergy. Do they not realize the synergy that Disney leverages within the different sectors of the company?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Nobody 2 is already on PPV.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I hate to use the word... but synergy. Do they not realize the synergy that Disney leverages within the different sectors of the company?

Wall Street: Get rid of the studios, they're holding back the parks.

Reality: The studios kept TWDC afloat during the pandemic shut-downs of the parks.

Wall Street: But we want dividends *now*!!

 

[Disney Analyst]

Just watched Lilo and Stitch (finally) and it was very cute! Even got me feeling a bit emotional by the end.

The craziest thing to me is that it hit a billion, and is still the only billion dollar movie this year. If the IP was never a Disney animated film first, that had decades of nostalgia built, it would never have made so much money.

It’s a cute, family film, but it certainly felt like something made in a “straight to dvd” way. Not a billion dollar box office fare.

Just goes to show how wilds things are these days. Movies that feel like a billion dollar entry aren’t making a splash, and then something like this does.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

And Jaws was the number two movie of the weekend. Wild.

I saw it yesterday in 3-D. The 3-D was mildly successful, sometimes distracting. Still, it was good to see the film in theaters for the first time since I originally saw it as a kid. Despite many, many viewings over the years, it never gets old.

 

[DKampy]

Just watched Lilo and Stitch (finally) and it was very cute! Even got me feeling a bit emotional by the end.

The craziest thing to me is that it hit a billion, and is still the only billion dollar movie this year. If the IP was never a Disney animated film first, that had decades of nostalgia built, it would never have made so much money.

It’s a cute, family film, but it certainly felt like something made in a “straight to dvd” way. Not a billion dollar box office fare.

Just goes to show how wilds things are these days. Movies that feel like a billion dollar entry aren’t making a splash, and then something like this does.

I have never seen the box office so unpredictable as it is now…. The Conjuring is now looking to post a franchise best opening weekend…I never saw that coming…. The franchise has been on diminishing returns the past few movies….And The reviews have not been great… at This point I have no idea what Tron is going to do…it could either fail miserably or over perform greatly

 

[Phroobar]

Tron has always been a nich movie. I'm looking forward to it but I think it will fall flat. I do like that Tron Ares Arcade popcorn bucket. I haven't heard of any new toys coming out for it. A Lego set would be nice.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Not that that was ever in doubt, but yeah. And that indicates that in the end Wall St doesn't really care if any Disney movies "fail" at the box office.

Wall Street does not care about the theatrical business, just look at WBD. For all of WBD’s perceived success in theaters their stock is still trading at a paltry $11 a share.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Conjuring estimate up to $83 million domestically, 3rd highest for a horror movie behind It Chapter One and Two

With Sinners, Final Destination, Weapons and this it's been a banner year for horror movies in terms of box office

 

[Disney Analyst]

Conjuring estimate up to $83 million domestically, 3rd highest for a horror movie behind It Chapter One and Two

With Sinners, Final Destination, Weapons and this it's been a banner year for horror movies in terms of box office

Odd. Weren’t people just discussing horror fatigue as others didn’t do well? I swear there was discussion not that long ago…

 

[DKampy]

Conjuring estimate up to $83 million domestically, 3rd highest for a horror movie behind It Chapter One and Two

With Sinners, Final Destination, Weapons and this it's been a banner year for horror movies in terms of box office

Not just Horror Movies… but WB horror movies specifically… whatever Warner is doing it is working

 

[Disney Irish]

Odd. Weren’t people just discussing horror fatigue as others didn’t do well? I swear there was discussion not that long ago…

Yes and I still believe it whether you guys don’t or not doesn’t matter to me. A few movies doing well in this landscape doesn’t prove that audience tastes haven’t shifted away (fatigue) from the genre overall. As there is still more that failed this year than were successes.