Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyWarrior27]

lol…

#1 you have ZERO idea of what actual costs are.
#2 your “science based” predictions were so far off you should put them in an ark from now on.

Just go on drews vlog and help him stick the go pro over the construction walls, mmmmKkk?

I said it broke even. And that’s final.

That’s enough for you.

Now get lost.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[TP2000]

In lieu of updating the passing weekend, it's time to celebrate a summer well lived (mostly not at the box office) with the annual TP2000 Global Command Center Labor Day Box Office Wrap Up & Fish Fry! Grab a plate and some extra napkins as we dig in to the facts and data. And there's more tartar sauce and lemon wedges at each table...

Now that Kurt recalibrated the blinky lights in the Command Center, we're using the Metric system of 2.5X Production Budget Divided By Half for this one. The exception is Lilo & Stitch, which had a relatively tiny production budget of just $100 Million, but was marketed like a mega-budget movie with a $100 Million advertising spend, so we'll times that one by 3 before we divide by half.

The result is that The Walt Disney Company has a current net loss of $40 Million after their first eight movies of the year.

Captain America, Brave New World: $180 Production, $414 Box Office = $19 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White: $269 Production, $206 Box Office = $233 Million Loss (Oof!)
The Amateur: $60 Production, $96 Box Office = $27 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $382 Box Office = $34 Million Loss
Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production, $1,033 Box Office = $367 Million Profit (!!!)
Elio: $150 Production, $152 Box Office = $112 Million Loss
The Fantastic Four, First Steps: $200 Production, $507 Box Office = $4 Million Profit
Freakier Friday: $42 Production, $133 Box Office = $14 Million Profit
The Roses: Alleged $20 Production, Weak Opening Weekend Globally = Unknown At This Time

$385 Million Profit from Lilo, Fantastic Four & Freakier Friday, against a $425 Million loss from all the rest = $40 Million Loss

Onward to October's Tron: Ares and the highly scientific Halloween costume pop culture data calibration from my front door!

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Freaky Friday did ok

 

[Disney Irish]

In lieu of updating the passing weekend, it's time to celebrate a summer well lived (mostly not at the box office) with the annual TP2000 Global Command Center Labor Day Box Office Wrap Up & Fish Fry! Grab a plate and some extra napkins as we dig in to the facts and data. And there's more tartar sauce and lemon wedges at each table...

Now that Kurt recalibrated the blinky lights in the Command Center, we're using the Metric system of 2.5X Production Budget Divided By Half for this one. The exception is Lilo & Stitch, which had a relatively tiny production budget of just $100 Million, but was marketed like a mega-budget movie with a $100 Million advertising spend, so we'll times that one by 3 before we divide by half.

The result is that The Walt Disney Company has a current net loss of $40 Million after their first eight movies of the year.

Captain America, Brave New World: $180 Production, $414 Box Office = $19 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White: $269 Production, $206 Box Office = $233 Million Loss (Oof!)
The Amateur: $60 Production, $96 Box Office = $27 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $382 Box Office = $34 Million Loss
Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production, $1,033 Box Office = $367 Million Profit (!!!)
Elio: $150 Production, $152 Box Office = $112 Million Loss
The Fantastic Four, First Steps: $200 Production, $507 Box Office = $4 Million Profit
Freakier Friday: $42 Production, $133 Box Office = $14 Million Profit
The Roses: Alleged $20 Production, Weak Opening Weekend Globally = Unknown At This Time

$385 Million Profit from Lilo, Fantastic Four & Freakier Friday, against a $425 Million loss from all the rest = $40 Million Loss

View attachment 880803
View attachment 880804

Onward to October's Tron: Ares and the highly scientific Halloween costume pop culture data calibration from my front door!

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

I agree with what you got here. And going into the rest of the year Disney does look very poised to be in the black and have a net profit when all said and done.

 

[Disney Irish]

Freaky Friday did ok

It did, hope this makes Disney consider bringing back more mid-budget films.

 

[TP2000]

And for those who enjoy the last of this summer's cherry-picked data to help explain away that loss in Burbank, here's some data that look backward at the early summer months, in addition to looking forward into September. This is "The Economy" and "The Weather" topics that had been used earlier this summer as reasons why many of Disney's movies were bombing or barely breaking even globally...

National 2025 Gross Domestic Product for Q2, And That Nation's Unemployment Rate for July, 2025

USA = +3.3% Growth, 4.2% Unemployment
Canada = -1.6% Decline, 6.9% Unemployment
Mexico = +0.6% Growth, 2.8% Unemployment
UK = +0.3% Growth, 4.7% Unemployment (reported quarterly)
France = +0.3% Growth, 7.5% Unemployment
West Germany = -0.3% Decline, 6.3% Unemployment
Japan = +0.3% Growth, 2.3% Unemployment
South Korea = +0.6% Growth, 2.4% Unemployment
Australia = +0.2% Growth, 4.2% Unemployment

Overall, the impact of The Economy on the box office was stronger at home but muted overseas. The USA went into the summer with modestly strong GDP growth and low unemployment, while the rest of the major box office markets overseas had anemic GDP growth or outright contraction and stubbornly high unemployment above 5.0%. Canada and Germany are suffering from both of those problems right now.

As far as the impact of The Weather on the box office, that heat wave that broiled everything east of the Rockies a month ago has turned into an early fall with unusually cool temps (and an early snowfall forecast) east of the Rockies. The west though finally broke out of the unusually cool June and July we had and got back to normal temps in August, with warmer than usual temps continuing into September in the northern Rockies.

This week, Seattle is forecast to have the same high temp as Key West, Florida! Unreal!

 

[TP2000]

I agree with what you got here. And going into the rest of the year Disney does look very poised to be in the black and have a net profit when all said and done.

I haven't been able to find any production budget information from reputable sources for Tron: Ares, after an 8 second Google search. But it should be interesting to find out later this fall what that budget was for that one.

I've been getting ads for Tron: Ares on YouTube constantly for the past week.

It's so cute how the YouTube algorithm tries to relate to me after I watch a few Jack Plotnick videos.

 

[Disney Irish]

I haven't been able to find any production budget information from reputable sources for Tron: Ares, after an 8 second Google search. But it should be interesting to find out later this fall what that budget was for that one.

I've been getting ads for Tron: Ares on YouTube constantly for the past week.

It's so cute how the YouTube algorithm tries to relate to me after I watch a few Jack Plotnick videos.

So far I’ve seen ranges from $150M-$250M. So I’d call it $200M for now to average it right in the middle.

YouTube pulls from your browser search history too. So since you regularly search for Disney related stuff is why you would get Disney related ads in YouTube.

 

[coffeefan]

Summer Box Office Clobbered by Kryptonite: Domestic Revenue Barely Matches Last Year

The May to Labor Day season initially soared, but global grosses took a nosedive as foreign movie ticket sales plunged further and a glut of male-skewing tentpoles battled for scraps in the U.S.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

David Croyé’s consulting and research firm JustWatch Media, which monitors trailer campaigns and moviegoing habits, found that weeks ago only 25 percent of people said they’d prefer to wait to see a summer movie on streaming, a healthy sign. In more recent days, however, that number shot up to more than 36 percent. He says this hits mid-size movies particularly hard, as well as being a major reason why the sheer number of people going to the cinema may never equal pre-COVID times.

“I don’t think the studio system will fill the gap that started from the pandemic,” says the founder and CEO of JustWatch. “It’s not as mass a market anymore. It’s about an even smaller group of people going to the movies more often. So there’s a lot more streaming and watching at home.”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

David Croyé’s consulting and research firm JustWatch Media, which monitors trailer campaigns and moviegoing habits, found that weeks ago only 25 percent of people said they’d prefer to wait to see a summer movie on streaming, a healthy sign. In more recent days, however, that number shot up to more than 36 percent. He says this hits mid-size movies particularly hard, as well as being a major reason why the sheer number of people going to the cinema may never equal pre-COVID times.

“I don’t think the studio system will fill the gap that started from the pandemic,” says the founder and CEO of JustWatch. “It’s not as mass a market anymore. It’s about an even smaller group of people going to the movies more often. So there’s a lot more streaming and watching at home.”

Then they’re screwed

Because when they start trying to
Charge you $100 a month for a streaming service…the cable cutters will return to cut their wifi and run to other content without the upfront fees.

 

[BrianLo]

And for those who enjoy the last of this summer's cherry-picked data to help explain away that loss in Burbank, here's some data that look backward at the early summer months, in addition to looking forward into September. This is "The Economy" and "The Weather" topics that had been used earlier this summer as reasons why many of Disney's movies were bombing or barely breaking even globally...

National 2025 Gross Domestic Product for Q2, And That Nation's Unemployment Rate for July, 2025

USA = +3.3% Growth, 4.2% Unemployment
Canada = -1.6% Decline, 6.9% Unemployment
Mexico = +0.6% Growth, 2.8% Unemployment
UK = +0.3% Growth, 4.7% Unemployment (reported quarterly)
France = +0.3% Growth, 7.5% Unemployment
West Germany = -0.3% Decline, 6.3% Unemployment
Japan = +0.3% Growth, 2.3% Unemployment
South Korea = +0.6% Growth, 2.4% Unemployment
Australia = +0.2% Growth, 4.2% Unemployment

Overall, the impact of The Economy on the box office was stronger at home but muted overseas. The USA went into the summer with modestly strong GDP growth and low unemployment, while the rest of the major box office markets overseas had anemic GDP growth or outright contraction and stubbornly high unemployment above 5.0%. Canada and Germany are suffering from both of those problems right now.

As far as the impact of The Weather on the box office, that heat wave that broiled everything east of the Rockies a month ago has turned into an early fall with unusually cool temps (and an early snowfall forecast) east of the Rockies. The west though finally broke out of the unusually cool June and July we had and got back to normal temps in August, with warmer than usual temps continuing into September in the northern Rockies.

This week, Seattle is forecast to have the same high temp as Key West, Florida! Unreal!

Just an FYI and you may know this and others not, but Canada counts as “Domestic” box office. Distribution has been so highly integrated that it is treated as one movie economy.

 

[Disney Irish]

Then they’re screwed

Because when they start trying to
Charge you $100 a month for a streaming service…the cable cutters will return to cut their wifi and run to other content without the upfront fees.

And what’s your timeline for when you believe this will happen? Because you’ve been saying this for awhile now (seems like years) and hasn’t happened yet. So when will this happen?

 

[Tha Realest]

I said it broke even. And that’s final.

That’s enough for you.

Now get lost.

You’re placing a lot of trust in that $200M budget number. It was principally filmed in Europe so we should have the true budget soon enough.

Your dismissiveness and certitude haven’t served you well on this topic for this movie. Looks like you haven’t learned your lesson.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’re placing a lot of trust in that $200M budget number. It was principally filmed in Europe so we should have the true budget soon enough.

Your dismissiveness and certitude haven’t served you well on this topic for this movie. Looks like you haven’t learned your lesson.

In general…sub 30 arrogance and vlogging is not a 1:1 to education and experience

 

[Disney Irish]

You’re placing a lot of trust in that $200M budget number. It was principally filmed in Europe so we should have the true budget soon enough.

Your dismissiveness and certitude haven’t served you well on this topic for this movie. Looks like you haven’t learned your lesson.

Don’t forget along with that as it was filmed primarily in the UK is a tax rebate, which brings down that budget. So even with that “north of $200M” thing that you’re holding onto, it could still end up being $200M or even under when all said and done.

 

[Tha Realest]

Don’t forget along with that as it was filmed primarily in the UK is a tax rebate, which brings down that budget. So even with that “north of $200M” thing that you’re holding onto, it could still end up being $200M or even under when all said and done.

It’s possible. But the “official” budget numbers (eg, Little Mermaid’s $250M) was a lowball even after the rebate was factored in. So it’s likely the actual and rebate-affected budget falls on the over.

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s possible. But the “official” budget numbers (eg, Little Mermaid’s $250M) was a lowball even after the rebate was factored in. So it’s likely the actual and rebate-affected budget falls on the over.

Yes it is certainly possible that its over, but also just as possible that it’s right on or even under. Its unknown until its known, to wax poetic for a second.

But for now as discussed many times, until otherwise updated with a “real” number we take what is known and use it. And for now that number is still $200M. So we calculate based on that, and based on that it has passed the breakeven point and gone into profitability.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s possible. But the “official” budget numbers (eg, Little Mermaid’s $250M) was a lowball even after the rebate was factored in. So it’s likely the actual and rebate-affected budget falls on the over.

They’re not putting reshoots out there

We as humans shouldn’t be this stupid

So all of a sudden…everything cost half? After decades of escalating costs and the fundamental reality that things ALWAYS escalate in price…the puppet master waves the wand and things are just BOGO?

Just let it sink in for a second

Because they ship ILM’s work over seas to like Croatia?

 

[Disney Irish]

They’re not putting reshoots out there

We as humans shouldn’t be this stupid

So all of a sudden…everything cost half? After decades of escalating costs and the fundamental reality that things ALWAYS escalate in price…the puppet master waves the wand and things are just BOGO?

Just let it sink in for a second

Because they ship ILM’s work over seas to like Croatia?

Really? We're doing this again?

So how much of the movie was re-shot? And how much did that cost? The reality is you don't know. And as I understand it it wasn't a whole lot of re-shoots, so it wouldn't have added a bunch to the budget anyways.

Also its funny how things work in the world, you go to places outside the US where things are cheaper like labor and materials and suddenly budgets come down. Imagine that, paying attention in Economics 101 actually pays off.

You're trying to use US prices to dictate why something should cost more but not actually factoring the real costs of the location where it was done, and the reality of why production was moved outside the US in the first place, ie its CHEAPER. You get more for less, which is the exact reason why Hollywood is doing this.

They can spend the same or even less and get more bang for their buck. Just let that sink in for a second.