Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[erasure fan1]

Had the movie itself been great, it would have likely done even better.

Doesn't that kind of sum it all up? This movie needed to be great. When, as you say, the franchise has had all terrible films before. You need something better than fine/good. Especially since this was kicking off a new era for the MCU. Maybe a good/fine avengers hits big. I just don't think, "it was fine" is going to cut it anymore because of the inconsistent output post endgame.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Meanwhile the biggest movie of the year is one I assume none of us have even seen.

 

[CoastalElite64]

I remember looking at a bunch of predictions at the beginning of the year and none had FF this low, $750m seemed to be the average….

IMDB predicted over $1 billion.

Box Office Predictions: 2025

These are my box office predictions for the year 2025 with their budget as well, and i also predicted the rotten tomatoes score and also sometimes i get predictions right or wrong but I still try my best for them to get things right for myself. (Update: this account will be gone someday.)

www.imdb.com

Screen rant had it at $680 million.

Predicting The 10 Highest Grossing Movies Of 2025

Some big box office hits are coming.

screenrant.com

Direct had it at $790 million.

10 Biggest Movies of 2025 Ranked by Box Office Earnings Projections

2025 is set up to be the biggest box office year since 2019, but which films will lead the way?

thedirect.com

Forbes had it at $800m

Box Office Predictions Summer 2025: ‘Superman,’ ‘Jurassic Park’ And More

Counting down the biggest blockbusters of the upcoming summer movie season — who will top the charts and who faces the biggest risks? Read on for predictions and estimates.

www.forbes.com

I doubt anyone in Burbank is going to be happy if it makes $250m less than expected.

Did any of those predict Asia was going to go soft on superhero movies in 2025 or that the American economy was going to get worse? No.

 

[Nevermore525]

Meanwhile the biggest movie of the year is one I assume none of us have even seen.

View attachment 875097

On numbers of the $1.977B, $1.951B is from China. It briefly released domestically without an English Dub and earned $17M. It will receive and English Dub release later this month.

 

[Willmark]

I'll again point out I don't think F4 are popular to the general public. My wife, who does not watch many Marvel movies, legit had no idea who they were. And I mean nothing, no idea on suits, powers, etc. Very anecdotal I know, but point is, she knows Jurassic Park, and she knows Superman. If you only plan to drop $150 this month on going to the theaters, people are probably picking the one they know. And if part of it is which kids are going to pick, I'd argue the same thing. Thor, while not the greatest movie, was a character most of the general public knows at this point, and didn't have to battle for ticket sales with other big movies (I don't think, don't quote me on that one).

My impression has always been that the FF have some very, very intense fans of the comic.

When I was reading them late 70s, 80s to early 90s, FF didn’t really register. Of course that’s just how I viewed it.

All that said likely will be seeing it this weekend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The previous FF movies were also just terrible. So it is hard to use them as reliable benchmarks for how an audience would react to a good FF film.

You are certainly very doom and gloom on this. I think the general consensus is that the FF was somewhere between "fine" and "good," it will do somewhere between "fine" and "good" at the box office in a crowded month. Note that people generally seem to think that the Thunderbolts was a better movie, and yet FF is doing much better. So there is at least some brand recognition there. Had the movie itself been great, it would have likely done even better.

I think right now in the cultural zeitgeist you have a few tiers: A= Batman, Spider-Man, and maybe Avengers, B= Superman, and some lesser Marvel brands like Thor, and so-on. But a lot of those have literally decades of good movies behind them to build that good will with the general audience. Batman has the Dark Knight Trilogy, Spider-Man the Sam Raimi trilogy. Not to mention loved animation series, video games, etc. This means that both Batman and Spider-Man have a special cross-generational appeal that other brands don't have. To lay that at the feet of the first decent movie for FF seems silly.

Just so I’m reading this correctly: I’m getting lectured for being “mean” to fantastic four…despite the results? Just want to make sure that’s how we rolling today?

It will gross more than the latest Mission Impossible movie that Paramount says will still be profitable after VOD and cable TV money

$600 million global?

So you get from $370 to $600…how exactly?

And can we ask someone NOT from paramount what their opinion is?

 

[JackCH]

Just so I’m reading this correctly: I’m getting lectured for being “mean” to fantastic four…despite the results? Just want to make sure that’s how we rolling today?

I was just giving a response saying that I disagree it has to do primarily with the IP itself and giving some reasons. Not sure how that is "lecturing."

 

[JackCH]

Doesn't that kind of sum it all up? This movie needed to be great. When, as you say, the franchise has had all terrible films before. You need something better than fine/good. Especially since this was kicking off a new era for the MCU. Maybe a good/fine avengers hits big. I just don't think, "it was fine" is going to cut it anymore because of the inconsistent output post endgame.

Sure, though I personally really enjoyed the film I can acknowledge it did not live up to even my own expectations going into it. The third act let me down, and it should have been a big hype builder for the next films.

That being said, we've got a Spider-Man film and then two Avengers films before a soft reset. I think they will be fine.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Just so I’m reading this correctly: I’m getting lectured for being “mean” to fantastic four…despite the results? Just want to make sure that’s how we rolling today?


$600 million global?

So you get from $370 to $600…how exactly?

And can we ask someone NOT from paramount what their opinion is?

Much bigger domestic haul and much smaller budget. I

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Much bigger domestic haul and much smaller budget. I

But the math still ain’t mathing

 

[Nevermore525]

Much bigger domestic haul and much smaller budget. I

Domestic for F4 has already surpassed MI, and the total global cume through 2 weekends is about $13M ahead of where MI was at that point.

F4 added another $4.5 domestically today so it’s officially over $200M domestic

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was just giving a response saying that I disagree it has to do primarily with the IP itself and giving some reasons. Not sure how that is "lecturing."

Came off as such…my mistake.

But I have to say…this company line of “they WANT low box office totals to reset” is a PR front…and already being given more rope than it should.

It’s pretty ridiculous…I would not give it wind.

Why would a $500 mil reset of fantastic four…which means not nearly enough people watched it on first crack…mean its good moving forward?

It’s almost like rooting for something to become a “cult classic” on streaming…which isn’t where the Hollywood financiers are pouring their money into.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Domestic for F4 has already surpassed MI, and the total global cume through 2 weekends is about $13M ahead of where MI was at that point.

F4 added another $4.5 domestically today so it’s officially over $200M domestic

$4.5 mil on day 12 is good?

I mean…it’s $2.5 mil less than the equivalent Superman…but whatevs

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I remember looking at a bunch of predictions at the beginning of the year and none had FF this low, $750m seemed to be the average….

IMDB predicted over $1 billion.

Box Office Predictions: 2025

These are my box office predictions for the year 2025 with their budget as well, and i also predicted the rotten tomatoes score and also sometimes i get predictions right or wrong but I still try my best for them to get things right for myself. (Update: this account will be gone someday.)

www.imdb.com

Screen rant had it at $680 million.

Predicting The 10 Highest Grossing Movies Of 2025

Some big box office hits are coming.

screenrant.com

Direct had it at $790 million.

10 Biggest Movies of 2025 Ranked by Box Office Earnings Projections

2025 is set up to be the biggest box office year since 2019, but which films will lead the way?

thedirect.com

Forbes had it at $800m

Box Office Predictions Summer 2025: ‘Superman,’ ‘Jurassic Park’ And More

Counting down the biggest blockbusters of the upcoming summer movie season — who will top the charts and who faces the biggest risks? Read on for predictions and estimates.

www.forbes.com

I doubt anyone in Burbank is going to be happy if it makes $250m less than expected.

We are ignoring these things today…

So… 30% chance fantastic closes below 500 million, 70% chance it closes above?

Does it matter? It’s all for Disney plus so people buy the subscription.

Low energy people have been saying that…yes

 

[JackCH]

Came off as such…my mistake.

But I have to say…this company line of “they WANT low box office totals to reset” is a PR front…and already being given more rope than it should.

It’s pretty ridiculous…I would not give it wind.

Why would a $500 mil reset of fantastic four…which means not nearly enough people watched it on first crack…mean its good moving forward?

It’s almost like rooting for something to become a “cult classic” on streaming…which isn’t where the Hollywood financiers are pouring their money into.

Oh, I'm certainly not saying this being underwhelming at the box office is a good thing. But I put that more on the film quality itself leading to a more mediocre WOM, not the IP. That was all my post was getting at.

I think the movie nailed the characters of the FF, which means a potential sequel, if having better overall plot/action/etc, could work and get a bigger audience. But this film itself I fully acknowledge has an overall vibe of a 7/10 for most, which is below expectations.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh, I'm certainly not saying this being underwhelming at the box office is a good thing. But I put that more on the film quality itself leading to a more mediocre WOM, not the IP. That was all my post was getting at.

I think the movie nailed the characters of the FF, which means a potential sequel, if having better overall plot/action/etc, could work and get a bigger audience. But this film itself I fully acknowledge has an overall vibe of a 7/10 for most, which is below expectations.

“Quality” films that make no money have roughly the same net effect as bad movies that make no money…

No buzz…forgotten quickly…can’t be sold to advertisers for better rates on both streaming and sequels in the future.
We are in a damage control period with this one right now. Don’t pay the name tags mind on this.

And they new they had a problem when the $170 mil in ad sponsorship was reported last week…5 days get opening.

Superman is plastered on at least the same amount of product tie ins - likely more - and they didn’t break the glass there. That’s a smoke screen tactic.

Give it more time…it still could buck its BO trends…not impossible…but highly unlikely here.

This is definite an IP specify and overall larger MCU problem. Not imagined or overstated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Did any of those predict Asia was going to go soft on superhero movies in 2025 or that the American economy was going to get worse? No.

So just to make sure…

Geopolitics is to blame for bringing in like half what they’d want (for real) for an MCU “event” film?

Like lilo and stitch…which was kinda a low overall quality live action…but with heart…has powered through…but nada for 3 mcus sandwiched around them?

 

[Disney Irish]

So just to make sure…

Geopolitics is to blame for bringing in like half what they’d want (for real) for an MCU “event” film?

Like lilo and stitch…which was kinda a low overall quality live action…but with heart…has powered through…but nada for 3 mcus sandwiched around them?

Just so we're clear Stitch's China output wasn't even in the top 5 of its international take, it got beat by Italy which isn't really known as a powerhouse for US movie box office.

So yeah lets not make it seem like world affairs can't play a role, because it does.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

So just to make sure…

Geopolitics is to blame for bringing in like half what they’d want (for real) for an MCU “event” film?

Like lilo and stitch…which was kinda a low overall quality live action…but with heart…has powered through…but nada for 3 mcus sandwiched around them?

Odd how that only affected superhero movies the last couple weeks… Minecraft was a 40% dom / 60% international split, Lilo and Stitch 40/60, Jurassic 40/60, HTTYD 40/60, MI did 30/70… with the exception of Superman and FF all the other recent movies seem to have followed the normal split.

 

[Tha Realest]

If it clears 500M it will be a success.

They’re losing PLF and IMAX showings to Weapons and F1 this weekend. I finally have a chance to take my kid and the only IMAX showing is at 10am. It may not make $15M next weekend. And Disney has shifted its marketing to Freakier Friday.

Remember MCU is in repair mode.

After Captain America 4’s reshoots and Thunderbolts, Disney/MCU can’t keep affording these “repairs.”