Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Here’s the bush we beat around…

What if there isn’t a “next”?

What if this becomes ninja turtles and Disney turns its back…because it would

Alot of my ranting here is rooted in a very distinct…almost palpable…current of undertone denial about where the Disney studio(s) are…

Has tech changed the delivery and math? Yes.
Has the economics changed a lot? Yes

But they also have lost a lot of the Street cred these last 3-4 years about being desirable. For those not on Disney forums.
Ask around…this product isn’t in demand and it’s cumulative damage coming to the top.

Doesn’t mean they won’t post a hit…they have and will…but the general concensus is not favorable with the main stream. Bad trend. Trying to crank out more and saying “we’re the best!!!” will only dig the hole deeper

The idea that Disney is going to shutdown Marvel after Secret Wars in 2027 is not only silly, its downright insulting.

It ain't happening, so don't even know why you even put it out there.

I suspect if they don't immediately go to the next thing (Mutants) in 2028/2029 they'd do a "pause" like they did with Star Wars. But they won't stop it completely, not happening. Just like they didn't fully stop with Star Wars, they won't with Marvel either.

 

[Tha Realest]

They didn't need to use the Fox cast though. That incarnation of the X-Men basically wrapped up as its' own thing.

It seems odd to me that Marvel wouldn't want to develop their own version of iconic characters like Professor X and Magneto. How do you effectively do that now?

Yes. But. They already tried the soft reboot of the franchise and that didn’t bear out well. And I thought First Class and DOFP were excellent. But then came the follow ups with some pretty good talent and those landed with a thud at the same time the MCU was hitting its stride.

I get the whole multiverse thing but now we have those characters within the MCU as portrayed by two great actors. I would have kept that franchise as its' own thing.

Granted, Deadpool already used Fox characters and Stewart appeared in Dr. Strange, but that felt more like easter eggs.

I think they need to do a clean break. But they also need they need to do it right. Like, nail it. And let’s face it: for all of their flaws, the Fox X-Men films were by and large exceptionally cast. It’s like how Nirvana and WuTang Clan were basically supergroups but we didn’t know it at the time. Stewart, McKellan, Jackman (their second choice!), Marsden, Berry, Romjin, then later Reynolds (after a reboot), McAvoy, Fassbender, Lawrence, and Hoult.

I mean, that’s an exceptionally high bar to surpass - especially when Disney won’t let them go away! - and I am doubtful that going “cheap” and “young” can do the trick.

 

[coffeefan]

The public will not be satiated unless and until they get to see Stewart’s Professor X die onscreen one more time.

He's the Kenny of Marvel.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mean, that’s an exceptionally high bar to surpass - especially when Disney won’t let them go away! - and I am doubtful that going “cheap” and “young” can do the trick.

Yeah…that approach is literally burning up the computers at regal and amc as we speak

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes. But. They already tried the soft reboot of the franchise and that didn’t bear out well. And I thought First Class and DOFP were excellent. But then came the follow ups with some pretty good talent and those landed with a thud at the same time the MCU was hitting its stride.

I think they need to do a clean break. But they also need they need to do it right. Like, nail it. And let’s face it: for all of their flaws, the Fox X-Men films were by and large exceptionally cast. It’s like how Nirvana and WuTang Clan were basically supergroups but we didn’t know it at the time. Stewart, McKellan, Jackman (their second choice!), Marsden, Berry, Romjin, then later Reynolds (after a reboot), McAvoy, Fassbender, Lawrence, and Hoult.

I mean, that’s an exceptionally high bar to surpass - especially when Disney won’t let them go away! - and I am doubtful that going “cheap” and “young” can do the trick.

I think, just like last time, its all in who they cast. Will it be a tall order to fill, absolutely. But can it be done, also absolutely. Especially if they do it in a way that has the "old" actors introducing the "new" actors, which I suspect is what we'll see in Secret Wars.

 

[Disney Irish]

And in other news, other movies are opening this week -

‘Freakier Friday’ Review: Lindsay Lohan and Jamie Lee Curtis Reunite for a Sequel That Kicks Up the Body-Swap Complications but Not the Comedy

Lindsay Lohan and Jamie Lee Curtis reunite for a juggling-balls-in-the-air Disney romp that kicks up the body-swap complications but not the comedy.

variety.com

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The idea that Disney is going to shutdown Marvel after Secret Wars in 2027 is not only silly, its downright insulting.

It ain't happening, so don't even know why you even put it out there.

I suspect if they don't immediately go to the next thing (Mutants) in 2028/2029 they'd do a "pause" like they did with Star Wars. But they won't stop it completely, not happening. Just like they didn't fully stop with Star Wars, they won't with Marvel either.

I don’t think anyone expects them to shut down a multi billion dollar franchise but I could absolutely see them pulling back to one movie every year or two (like they did at the beginning) instead of the 3 or 4 movies a year we’ve been getting every year recently… or to follow the Star Wars route and just stop making films altogether for a few years and just use it for D+. I don’t think we’ve had a Star Wars film in 6(?) years, I’d have thought that unimaginable in the late teens.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

While mostly unknown when their films were released most the Marvel characters (IronMan, Capt America, Thor, Black Panther, even Starlord and Gamora) became household names before they ever appeared in an Avengers meet up film, I’d be surprised if 5% of the public could tell you any of the names from the recent movies. To me that’s a sign they haven’t developed any of them to the extent they did with the previous cast.

I think this is 80% due to poor quality and 20% due to fatigue, when I was a kid Westerns were all the rage but they got consistently worse as the genre ran out of original ideas, it feels like Superhero movies are following a similar path, there will always be a market for the occasional good superhero movie but pumping out a dozen mediocre movies a year isn’t going to keep the audiences coming.

This seems to be a long term Hollywood theme, they all jump on the next “craze” and release as many films as possible before the craze ends, in my 50 years I’ve seen that with westerns, musicals, space movies, horror films, dramas, etc. Might just be time to move on to the next genre.

What’s the box office expectation for new Avengers movie?

 

[CoastalElite64]

Is your point that all comic book movies have hit the skids hard?

The point is how much superhero movies were propped up by international box office.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t think anyone expects them to shut down a multi billion dollar franchise but I could absolutely see them pulling back to one movie every year or two (like they did at the beginning) instead of the 3 or 4 movies a year we’ve been getting every year recently… or to follow the Star Wars route and just stop making films altogether for a few years and just use it for D+. I don’t think we’ve had a Star Wars film in 6(?) years, I’d have thought that unimaginable in the late teens.

Feige has already said they would be releasing only 2-3 movies a year at most from now on. And that they would also be limiting the D+ shows. So yeah that is absolutely what they are going to do, go back to limiting what is being released to get it back to a "normal" pace of things.

But Old Walt there was posing the question "what if there isn't a next?", as if to say that Disney would shutdown Marvel at the end of this current phase, ie at the end of Secret Wars in 2027. And that is just silly, they aren't going to do that and we all know it.

 

[CoastalElite64]

I think, just like last time, its all in who they cast. Will it be a tall order to fill, absolutely. But can it be done, also absolutely. Especially if they do it in a way that has the "old" actors introducing the "new" actors, which I suspect is what we'll see in Secret Wars.

If they're smart they will get an international cast for X-Men.

 

[Disney Irish]

If they're smart they will get an international cast for X-Men.

For the "international" Mutants, yes. But some of the characters aren't "international" so I don't know if that would go over very well.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

What’s the box office expectation for new Avengers movie?

I haven’t seen any yet, it got delayed until Dec 2026 so we probably won’t see any official predictions for close to a year.

Personally I would have said $1-1.5 billion a year ago… now I’d guess it’ll be lucky to hit $750 million worldwide and won’t be surprised if it falls closer to $600 million, I think the MCU is on life support and needs a total and complete restart.

 

[JackCH]

Next year has the potential to be an all-time year for me personally. Two movies centered on two of my top favorite comic book characters (Spider and Doom), a Star Wars movie, and the Odyssey being done by my favorite director. That’s on top of Dune, and Supergirl.

 

[coffeefan]

Interesting topic.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Next year has the potential to be an all-time year for me personally. Two movies centered on two of my top favorite comic book characters (Spider and Doom), a Star Wars movie, and the Odyssey being done by my favorite director. That’s on top of Dune, and Supergirl.

Ouch…don’t see it turning out all that well…we’ll see

 

[Disney Irish]

Interesting topic.

Yep, I've been saying the same thing for a very long time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting topic.

That as good clip…brings up a lot of good points

On one hand…it kinda exonerates the current superhero struggles…on the other it condemns it to more failures in the short term. It doesn’t “redefine” what failure is…which only a fool tries to.

 

[Disney Irish]

That as good clip…brings up a lot of good points

On one hand…it kinda exonerates the current superhero struggles…on the other it condemns it to more failures in the short term. It doesn’t “redefine” what failure is…which only a fool tries to.

Its only a "fool" who tries to continue to use old world metrics to label what a "failure" is in 2020s post-pandemic era as if nothing has changed. Which is partially the point of the video.

 

[Tha Realest]

This touches on the prospects of an increasingly worrisome trend for the MCU.

Fantastic Four: First Steps isn't generating much hype for Doomsday

Moviegoers aren't flocking to Fantastic Four: First Steps, the third underwhelming box office showing for Marvel Studios in 2025.

www.polygon.com