Been there, done that, and recovered quite nicely through multiple recessions.
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WDW during a Recession / Economic Downturn
- Thread starter Tha Realest
- Start date
Been there, done that, and recovered quite nicely through multiple recessions.
Andrew25
Well-Known Member
Last week when all passholders were unblocked.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
From the looks of it (and several first hand accounts of posters)…it appears they might have accidentally blacked out almost EVERYONE that weekend
lentesta
Premium Member
I'm tentatively scheduled to be on Bloomberg tomorrow in the 4 pm hour to talk theme parks for next week's Comcast earnings call (July 24) and Disney's (Aug 6).
Some background research on what's been going on since their last earnings calls:
Demand seemed strong in April, May, June for Disney & Universal
Some background research on what's been going on since their last earnings calls:
Demand seemed strong in April, May, June for Disney & Universal
- April numbers likely got slight YoY bump for Easter (was in previous Q in 2024)
- Central Florida tourist tax revenue up 9%
- Central Florida tourist tax revenue up 9%
- May’s Central Florida tourist tax income set record (+5.7%)
- Officials credited opening of Universal’s Epic Universe theme park (May 22)
- First new domestic theme park from Disney or Universal in almost 25 years
- Epic Universe park is off to a solid start
- One question is whether Epic is cannibalizing sales from older UOR parks
- June’s Orlando hotel bookings were up, bucking nationwide trend (e.g., Vegas)
- Disney Cruise Line occupancy remained very strong: 90%+ for new ships out of Port Canaveral
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
That just made it “must watch” tv
Slowest Summer start in recent memory?
Empty July 4?
Empty Memorial Day?
Empty Disney Hotels?
Empty TS restaurants all over property?
Unprecedented promotions and discounts for Disney Hotels?
Unprecedented 30% DCL discounts on last minute sailings?
All the visual indicators are flashing red. But somehow they pull a rabbit out of the hat in August?
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Absolutely the BEST time to visit WDW to experience a crowded but not MOBBED WDW!!!
lentesta
Premium Member
I'm covering April through June.
Two of those months were solid to record-breaking in terms of tourist tax revenue, which Orange County attributes to Epic U opening. They haven't released June numbers yet.
SNR says Orlando hotels are bucking the nationwide trend by increasing occupancy in June.
The feds say overseas tourism is down a fraction of 1%. Canada's had a huge drop but it's almost entirely offset by Mexico's gains. And Florida is the #2 tourist destination behind New York.
DCL out of Port Canaveral is sailing at 90+% occupancy on the new ships, mid-80s on the Dream class, according to Port Canaveral. At premium prices.
How do you reconcile the Orange County tax numbers, SNR report, Port Canaveral numbers, and fed data? Those tourists are coming to Central Florida for the healing properties of Lake Nona's water?
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Well there goes my hopes to visit a less than MOBBED WDW
Trueblood
Well-Known Member
Do you have any ideas on the TouringPlans numbers that show ride wait times being significantly below predictions? Are ride waits maybe less of a measure of park attendance as they have been in the past? The updated DAS at work?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I want to wait to see what Len has to say. But a couple questions did come up immediately…
1. How/Who is reporting bookings in “Orlando”?. And does the data say anything for 32830 specifically (that one is probably rhetorical)?
2. TWDC reports revenue increases due to “price increases and overhead cuts” for about 12 quarters in a row (would have to go back and look)
…so do the tax revenue increases correspond to that? ie is their entire boat being floated by charging more?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
That would be another question. Excellent
Chi84
Premium Member
Wasn’t this previously addressed in another thread? I thought the answer was some combination of DAS changes and the park operations team “doing the lord’s work.”That would be another question. Excellent
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
What’s SNR?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Well supposedly we are in a “post slowdown” world, I think?
Ima gonna go fill up on some $1.75 gas right now
️ 
lentesta
Premium Member
Updated DAS, some behind-the-scenes work to give more ride capacity to standby (from LL), and less tolerance for overinflated posted wait times.
They’re never going to talk about it publicly, but it seems like a multi-year industrial engineering project that’s quietly improving guest experience.
Trueblood
Well-Known Member
I just got the awful notion that "guest satisfaction" is an OKR for Disney parks.
Credit to those engineers if that's what we're seeing.
CoastalElite64
Well-Known Member
Well is a decline in international tourism possibly being offset by a rise in domestic tourism?
May 2025 experience an almost 6% YOY increase in revenue generation. After 2024 reported slight decreases YOY. I agree that this is most likely due to EU, and that that everything costs more than it did a in previous years, and the increase in hotel inventory in central Florida.
Interestingly CF occupancy rates still seem to lag behind the rest of the state. 65% vs 69%. This does also come after contractions after the 2023 post covid surge year. It seems like these changes are more related to things trying to normalize.
The whole Canadian thing was overblown from the start. Their concern should be domestic tourists that are shunning the swamp first and foremost.
So cruise ship occupancy is an interesting figure. 100% of occupancy assumes that all cabins are sold with 2 guests occupying it. Ships can frequently go above that 100% number if cabins have more than 2 people in them. So for example if all the ships cabins are filled and 50% have 4 people per cabin, the occupancy for the ship is 150%.
Looking at historical numbers from 2023 Disney reported 98% average occupancy, Royal 105% and Carnival 109%.
DCL is a family cruise line meaning that there should be more cabins of with more than 2 people. Historical numbers (pre-covid) show them almost always sailing with occupancy rates well exceeding 100%.
August-October is not peak season for cruising which also motivate the substantial discounting.
I can't speak for the entire Central Florida region as a whole, but the boots on the ground (or lack there of) at the parks, restaurants, shops, and boats tell a different story within the bubble.
What's changed is the public perception of Disney. Never before have I seen the legacy media trash the Disney Experiences segment the way that they're doing now. Disney was always off limits to criticism by the legacy outlets, but now when something comes up, it's almost always negative and it's almost always as a result of something STUPID that management has done to tick off guests. Whether it's price increases, removing popular attractions, lowering quality, cutting offerings, forcing unpopular IP on guests, involving themselves into social/political issues etc. , it's almost alway self-inflicted.
Disney's strategy has seemingly been to get social media influencers to shill for them in exchange for access and swag, and that by a large part has backfired because normies now recognize their actual experiences will NEVER be similar to what the shill influencers get from the mouse. Disney can no longer relate to (what at least used to be) the average guest, and that's why it seems their parks are getting hit, the swamp particularly. But if they just cover it up with additional LL revenue and increased per guest spending, they can just scoot by another quarter, and that's the only thing that matters apparently.