Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Miss Rori]

Bluey offhand might be the last really big piece of "new" kids' media to take off in merchandising. I can remember back in 2020 how there was only a limited amount of merch available that was in high demand, and now, there's plenty of it (though not as much as a Disney-backed series probably would have if it took off in the same way!).

It is a shame that Disney has not put its back into promoting Elio. Now that the review embargo has been lifted it's clearly shaping up to be a second-tier Pixar film in terms of quality, but I could argue that Inside Out 2 was that too, and look how well that did - except Disney pushed that harder and it was a sequel to a known hit. At this point BoxOfficePro is expecting Elio to come in third for the weekend behind the second weekend of How to Train Your Dragon and the debut of 28 Years Later, with a $20-30 million 3-day take, and even if the word of mouth legs out the way Elemental's did, that would be a rough start to overcome. Wish couldn't overcome a rough debut, nor could the Snow White remake. (If Elio does come in at those expectations it will be a worse start than Snow had!)

 

[BrianLo]

Box office is the ultimate barometer. Anything else is often cherry picked examples.

I’m going to take it one step further. Nothing is the ultimate barometer. It’s a series of metrics of sometimes equal importance.

Box office in no way properly captures Winnie the Pooh, Mickey, Bluey, Encanto or even Stitch until just weeks ago.

I think Merch matters a lot more at year 5 and year 50.

 

[BrianLo]

Oh, I'm so glad you made it! What's the Canada pavilion like?

Janky and reservations only.

I hope you'll update us over in the Misc. Thoughts thread or something. I'll be in Kyoto this fall, and I am purposely putting two days on hold so I can take the train down to the World's Fair at least one of those days.

I won’t run it too wildly off topic. But I swung from this place is a “miserable death trap” to “oh, I actually had a good time”.

Expect to have no expectations, go with what strikes your fancy. It really is a lot like a new version of Future World (not showcase) and I’d describe a lot of the larger pavilions more like walking through the Cosmic Rewind Queue or walking through portions of living with the land. It’s neat enough and the exterior architecture of the pavilions are varying shades of cool.

I think you’ll treat it like a D23 conference Sunday stroll and you’ll have a good time. Sort of scratching the surface. Fall would also be my preference, with a parasol and water in tow.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Janky and reservations only.



I won’t run it too wildly off topic. But I swung from this place is a “miserable death trap” to “oh, I actually had a good time”.

Expect to have no expectations, go with what strikes your fancy. It really is a lot like a new version of Future World (not showcase) and I’d describe a lot of the larger pavilions more like walking through the Cosmic Rewind Queue or walking through portions of living with the land. It’s neat enough and the exterior architecture of the pavilions are varying shades of cool.

I think you’ll treat it like a D23 conference Sunday stroll and you’ll have a good time. Sort of scratching the surface. Fall would also be my preference, with a parasol and water in tow.

This thread is often a tribute to off topic-ness so I think you're good

I've seen really mixed opinions on the Expo with the lengthy unshaded queues and terrible reservation system.

I'm still debating whether or not to spend a day there in the fall, but I wonder if I'll just be done with lines after Disney & Universal, and should focus elsewhere.

 

[BrianLo]

This thread is often a tribute to off topic-ness so I think you're good

I've seen really mixed opinions on the Expo with the lengthy unshaded queues and terrible reservation system.

I'm still debating whether or not to spend a day there in the fall, but I wonder if I'll just be done with lines after Disney & Universal, and should focus elsewhere.

If you are content waiting 20-30 minutes to be able to then experience Cosmic Rewinds queue. But only 1/4 of the pavilions, many are reservation only and a few others were hours long.

Like I said I swung from I wouldn’t recommend this to anyone, to finding some weird joy and amusement by just going with the flow and hopping in the lines that were fine. 70% of the problem was the caustic concrete heat, there was like a 15 degree Celsius swing between leaving the cover of the giant wooden circle and the concrete.

I’m very glad I have been to an expo and there was more to it than I expected. To really properly do it I would go for three days and actually had some foresight to have reservations. I’m sure I didn’t do the very best pavilions, but some of the ones I did do seemed quite strong like Singapore, Indonesia, Saudi, Australia, Spain.

 

[TP2000]

I think you’ll treat it like a D23 conference Sunday stroll and you’ll have a good time. Sort of scratching the surface. Fall would also be my preference, with a parasol and water in tow.

That's perfect. I enjoy that you remember my years of D23 Expo Sunday strolls, those were such fun!

As an American with a distinct Canadian (Penticton!) side of the family from the mid 20th century, I'm planning to visit the Canada pavilion by any means necessary. Even if that's via some clunky Osaka World's Fair reservation app.

Fall is a definite. Even though late September will still be swampy in Osaka, I'll make do as I commute down from Kyoto. That said, I think I'll forgo the parasol. I mean, the Japanese gays can spot me a mile kilometer away in my tailored American touristwear, but a parasol is just too much. As a very wise woman once said, before you leave the house take one thing off.

So I'll leave the parasol.

 

[Agent H]

@BrianLo
Did I miss something? Destination d23 isn’t till August. What event are you attending?

 

[TP2000]

Off Topic Late Nite Memory...

One of the best World's Fairs I've been to was Expo 86 in Vancouver, BC. The Swiss pavilion was a GIANT Swatch Watch, which was so '80's it hurt! The General Motors pavilion featured the Mystery Lodge show that got moved to Knott's Berry Farm a few years later, and still plays there. And I spent about an hour in the dour and dowdy Soviet Union pavilion with a big bust of Lenin sitting in a pool of water, and I'm so glad I did. I kept the guide book and all their brochures from their exhibits covering the best of Soviet transportation developments and the triumphs of Communist transportation break throughs. (Transportation was the theme of the 1986 World's Fair).

That turned out to be the very last World's Fair that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics ever had a pavilion for. By the next World's Fair in Seville, Spain in 1992, the Soviet Union had collapsed and turned into a vaguely Capitalist "Russian Federation".

Without the snooty Slavic hostesses proclaiming Communist cars and trucks to be far superior to Capitalist cars and trucks, any future Russian pavilion just wasn't the same

I still have the 1986 guidebook to Communist excellence in Soviet transportation!

 

[TP2000]

@BrianLo
Did I miss something? Destination d23 isn’t till August. What event are you attending?

He's at the 2025 Osaka World's Fair happening now through October in Japan.

It's a thing.

Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan Official Website

World Expo 2025 will be held in Osaka, Kansai, Japan! Designing Future Society for Our Lives.

www.expo2025.or.jp

 

[Agent H]

He's at the 2025 Osaka World's Fair happening now through October in Japan.

It's a thing.

Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan Official Website

World Expo 2025 will be held in Osaka, Kansai, Japan! Designing Future Society for Our Lives.

www.expo2025.or.jp

Ah okay. Sorry @BrianLo I got a little confused by some of the wording.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

If you are content waiting 20-30 minutes to be able to then experience Cosmic Rewinds queue. But only 1/4 of the pavilions, many are reservation only and a few others were hours long.

Like I said I swung from I wouldn’t recommend this to anyone, to finding some weird joy and amusement by just going with the flow and hopping in the lines that were fine. 70% of the problem was the caustic concrete heat, there was like a 15 degree Celsius swing between leaving the cover of the giant wooden circle and the concrete.

I’m very glad I have been to an expo and there was more to it than I expected. To really properly do it I would go for three days and actually had some foresight to have reservations. I’m sure I didn’t do the very best pavilions, but some of the ones I did do seemed quite strong like Singapore, Indonesia, Saudi, Australia, Spain.

It'd be a one day visit for me at most. I wouldn't expect to see much but I might regret passing on the opportunity.

 

[BrianLo]

That's perfect. I enjoy that you remember my years of D23 Expo Sunday strolls, those were such fun!

As an American with a distinct Canadian (Penticton!) side of the family from the mid 20th century, I'm planning to visit the Canada pavilion by any means necessary. Even if that's via some clunky Osaka World's Fair reservation app.

Fall is a definite. Even though late September will still be swampy in Osaka, I'll make do as I commute down from Kyoto. That said, I think I'll forgo the parasol. I mean, the Japanese gays can spot me a mile kilometer away in my tailored American touristwear, but a parasol is just too much. As a very wise woman once said, before you leave the house take one thing off.

So I'll leave the parasol.

I’m gonna still run us off topic because who cares, we’re 20k posts deep now.

First I don’t think I knew about Penticton. One of the many places I’ve worked!

Bring an extendable umbrella in your bag and then bow to the social pressure. It was in my backpack for rain… Seriously I never thought I’d turn into that person, but when in Osaka. Or heat stroke versus fashion.

I’m also not at the neck fan portion of my life yet… but I might have been yesterday. I was surprised how many came with them.

 

[TsWade2]

Well well, we finally have official word on what the ACTUAL budget for Disney/Pixar’s #Elio is thanks to actual reliable trades.

According to Deadline, the film cost $150M to make, not $300M like that lying grifting snake Mr. Jordan Ruimy claimed on World of Reel, and I doubt we should be surprised given Ruimy lied about Captain America: Brave New World had a budget of $380M, when the ACTUAL budget, according to the trades, was $180 million.

Let this be a lesson to all you people who post clickbait and lies from grifters like Jordan Ruimy here on this social media platform again.

Never, and I mean, NEVER post anything like what Jordan Ruimy said here on this platform again unless it’s confirmed by reliable trades like The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, DEADLINE, or The Wrap.

That means you too, @TsWade2.

It’s high time platforms like this went back to a vetting process for when people share info over movies, film budgets, and the truth about them.

Okay, no need to be hasty! Geez!

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

As you genuinely seem to be angered that the topic of Halloween costumes is used as part of a pop culture impact discussion, I should probably explain where that came from. It didn't start here in this thread.

It started over in a Disneyland forum thread 15 years ago, when discussing the Avatar land rumors for the parks and it's lack of pop culture impact a year after the first movie came out in 2009. It continued through the 2010's on the Disneyland forums as a fun and wacky side topic, with changing tastes as Star Wars and various Marvel and Princessy characters came and went over the years on the annual costume parade. Back then I lived in a neighborhood that was flooded with a hundred or more kids every Halloween. And I was famous in my neighborhood for giving out Best Costume gift baskets that I had made up every year at See's Candy. It was always a fun thing. Fun! Happy! Laugh! Candy!

It's mentioned here on occasion because a few of the posters here were on the Disneyland forums in the past 15 years and know it as a point of reference. It's obviously not scientific or quantifiable in any meaningful way. It's nothing more than a fun anecdote to see what the kids are into each year.

It's nothing to be angry about or annoyed by, but I can understand the confusion if you don't know the 15 year long backstory to how it came about as an occasional discussion point in regards to movie popularity and pop culture.

All that said, I wonder if I'm going to get any boys wearing eye patches on my door this Halloween? I'm not sensing it.

LOL, I do the same thing at Halloween. I have been seeing a lot of witches and Mario costumes the last few years.
It's just a fun observation, not an announcement of things to come. I was surprised to not see many Disney costumes at all.

 

[Miss Rori]

Halloween was interesting last year because while I did see a fair deal of Disney costumes on kids, they were ones like Stitch, Moana, and Red from Descendants, and the last might have been the most popular of that subset! There were also a surprising number of girls already dressing as Glinda or Elphaba from Wicked, weeks before the movie opened. These days Universal is probably the best studio going at marketing/merchandising; they go as hard as Disney used to, and it seems to work more often than not, most recently with the How to Train Your Dragon remake.

 

[Nevermore525]

Comparing the last 3 Pixar films as far as critics are concerned:

Elemental 73% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 58 Metacritic

Inside Out 2 91% on RT, and 73 on metacritic

Elio at 87% on RT and 66 on Metacritic

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Superman tracking 3-weeks out is between $90 million and $125 million

(I don't know why they give such broad ranges for these predications besides covering themselves)

 

[Disney Irish]

Superman tracking 3-weeks out is between $90 million and $125 million

(I don't know why they give such broad ranges for these predications besides covering themselves)

The ranges I would guess is to account for walk up business, as that is really hard to predict versus presales.

 

[TP2000]

I'm loving the Osaka World's Fair sidetrack as we await Elio's debut! @BrianLo, I'd love a fuller TR over on the Disneyland Miscellaneous thread sometime later this summer, when you have the chance.

Penticton: A side of the family had a British flank, that ended up in Canada and BC in the 1800's. Growing up I had great aunts and uncles in Penticton that were in logging, and had run a general store in town. We drove up to visit every summer; which was one time I didn't mind that Dad would never let me drive his Lincoln, as the highway in those days was narrow and perilous. After Covid I finally did my car/train trip through BC and Alberta, stayed in Banff, and sent some "Hello, I Remember You!" prayers upstairs to the relatives while I was in beautiful Penticton.

I'm also confident you've been a great brand Ambassador for Canada during your trip, and that you impressed the hosts/hostesses at the Canada pavilion who probably aren't seeing many familiar faces at the Expo this summer.

 

[TP2000]

Back OT, it seems that "last month's news" about Elio's production budget was wrong?!?

The Numbers site has labeled its production budget at a mere $150 Million, or half the cost "last month's news" proclaimed.

That's fabulous news for Pixar! It gives Elio a fighting chance to break even at around $500-ish Million globally. But why such a huge discrepancy in reporting on this budget? $150 Million seems like a bargain basement price for Pixar in 2025, but it's certainly a heckuva lot better than a bizarrely bloated $300 Million. Why such a huge spread there I wonder?

Here's how Elio looks at the starting gates against some other recent SciFi Animation stuff from Burbank....