Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyWarrior27]

150 apparently.

But I think that’s usually their MO. With two rare exceptions, they usually are overtly cautious on merch before new franchise releases until they know what they have on their hands.

Those two exceptions are Lightyear (which barely qualifies as new) and Wish, which they clearly had unbridled optimism over. Notoriously they were underprepared for Frozen. In this case it’s a good thing if Elio fails, which I’d give a moderate possibility unless word of mouth saves it.

Ps- I’m at the expo now!

Which I believe will happen.

 

[Nevermore525]

Reminds me of when Encanto released and there was next to no merchandise produced at the time

 

[Sir_Cliff]

150 apparently.

But I think that’s usually their MO. With two rare exceptions, they usually are overtly cautious on merch before new franchise releases until they know what they have on their hands.

Those two exceptions are Lightyear (which barely qualifies as new) and Wish, which they clearly had unbridled optimism over. Notoriously they were underprepared for Frozen. In this case it’s a good thing if Elio fails, which I’d give a moderate possibility unless word of mouth saves it.

Ps- I’m at the expo now!

Yes, my impression is that the days are long gone when a new Disney/Pixar animated feature was preceded by shelves stacked with merchandise and the characters showing up in the parks.

These days, they seem to err on the side of caution except, as you note, when they seem especially certain it will sell merchandise. Their problem is that they don't seem very good at anticipating what will and what won't sell merchandise!

As for the parks, they are even more cautious these days. It seems like it can take years for them to figure out how to represent something like Coco in the parks whereas films like Hercules and Mulan were preceded by full parades and even Emperor's New Groove had meet-and-greets despite the company's lack of faith in the film.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I just purchased on online Elio movie soundtrack album on vinyl. Can't wait for it to arrive!!!

View attachment 865397

I won't bring you down.
No, no, no, no, no
Ooh-ooh-hoo

 

[easyrowrdw]

I don’t think there is any connection, or that anyone wants him to specifically be Disney CEO. More that is what the poster thinks the anti-Disney crowd believes is an ideal CEO these days.

Okay. I don’t think I’ve ever seen/read anything like that so that’s why I was confused.

 

[Andrew C]

So, no Elio toys, or even a t-shirt, at Target then?

Even though they spent over $200 Million to produce it?

They have happy meal toys!

 

[DisneyHead123]

Yes, my impression is that the days are long gone when a new Disney/Pixar animated feature was preceded by shelves stacked with merchandise and the characters showing up in the parks.

These days, they seem to err on the side of caution except, as you note, when they seem especially certain it will sell merchandise. Their problem is that they don't seem very good at anticipating what will and what won't sell merchandise!

As for the parks, they are even more cautious these days. It seems like it can take years for them to figure out how to represent something like Coco in the parks whereas films like Hercules and Mulan were preceded by full parades and even Emperor's New Groove had meet-and-greets despite the company's lack of faith in the film.

This aligns with what I’ve seen.

Our Target has a dedicated Disney section but most of it is devoted to tried and true characters like the princesses and Fab 5. There might be a handful of toys for new movies (stuffies, plastic characters) but not a full line of playsets like you would see for a Paw Patrol or Jurassic Park movie.

We also have a dedicated Lego section and new Disney movies often get representation there, although not always. I didn’t see anything for Inside Out or Elio.

I did notice 5 Below has a Stitch section in the front for their summer merchandise. Obviously that’s going to be pretty inexpensive stuff though. There are also a fair number of Stitch shirts in stores, but I think that predates the movie and just got a boost when the movie came out.

 

[erasure fan1]

Well, there was no shortage of Elio merch at the resorts when I was there last week. I didn't see anyone purchasing anything but it was well represented. I couldn't say if the parks had the same representation since I wasn't in any of them.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

This aligns with what I’ve seen.

Our Target has a dedicated Disney section but most of it is devoted to tried and true characters like the princesses and Fab 5. There might be a handful of toys for new movies (stuffies, plastic characters) but not a full line of playsets like you would see for a Paw Patrol or Jurassic Park movie.

We also have a dedicated Lego section and new Disney movies often get representation there, although not always. I didn’t see anything for Inside Out or Elio.

I did notice 5 Below has a Stitch section in the front for their summer merchandise. Obviously that’s going to be pretty inexpensive stuff though. There are also a fair number of Stitch shirts in stores, but I think that predates the movie and just got a boost when the movie came out.

Yes, Lilo & Stitch definitely falls into a different category as one of their most profitable franchises even before this remake. Apparently it brought in $2.6 billion for them in 2024, which is pretty remarkable.

The "franchise mandate" seems to extend to merchandising, where they concentrate their efforts on lines that they know will bring in revenue and are happier to scramble to meet demand after the fact rather than risk over-estimating it.

I remember reading around the time Moana came out and there was talk of "disappointing" merchandising comparisons with Frozen that Disney's argument was that it was really when these titles were released on DVD that they start really moving merchandise. Not sure that's true, but it could be part of their calculation that it is easier to estimate and react to streaming number where the risk is less and reward is ultimately greater than with the initial cinema release when it comes to merchandising.

 

[Miss Rori]

I remember reading around the time Moana came out and there was talk of "disappointing" merchandising comparisons with Frozen that Disney's argument was that it was really when these titles were released on DVD that they start really moving merchandise. Not sure that's true, but it could be part of their calculation that it is easier to estimate and react to streaming number where the risk is less and reward is ultimately greater than with the initial cinema release when it comes to merchandising.

Well, there wasn't a big bump for merchandise sales for Lightyear or Wish when they hit physical media/streaming, so I think Disney might be hedging their bets these days when it comes to anything that they absolutely don't see as a "known" quantity like Lilo & Stitch is.

 

[Miss Rori]

This aligns with what I’ve seen.

Our Target has a dedicated Disney section but most of it is devoted to tried and true characters like the princesses and Fab 5. There might be a handful of toys for new movies (stuffies, plastic characters) but not a full line of playsets like you would see for a Paw Patrol or Jurassic Park movie.

Yeah, Moana 2 had a pretty modest selection of new toys and such - although that may have stemmed from it not originally being intended for theaters and the deals for new merch having to be inked late in the game. Again, I think Wish's failure really spooked them in this regard, because they went all out on that one.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, my impression is that the days are long gone when a new Disney/Pixar animated feature was preceded by shelves stacked with merchandise and the characters showing up in the parks.

These days, they seem to err on the side of caution except, as you note, when they seem especially certain it will sell merchandise. Their problem is that they don't seem very good at anticipating what will and what won't sell merchandise!

As for the parks, they are even more cautious these days. It seems like it can take years for them to figure out how to represent something like Coco in the parks whereas films like Hercules and Mulan were preceded by full parades and even Emperor's New Groove had meet-and-greets despite the company's lack of faith in the film.

I agree, as I noted previously they do targeted merch releases still, like to the Parks or exclusive merch releases to specific stores but huge merch pushes to wide spread release not happening until they are sure it'll be a seller.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Yeah, Moana 2 had a pretty modest selection of new toys and such - although that may have stemmed from it not originally being intended for theaters and the deals for new merch having to be inked late in the game. Again, I think Wish's failure really spooked them in this regard, because they went all out on that one.

Them being spooked by Wish is also my assumption. Also think Inside Out 2 might have been like Frozen in that they were surprised by how well it did. Anecdotally, I’ve seen basically nothing for that movie in the kid’s section when shopping at run of the mill places like Target and Kohl’s.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Them being spooked by Wish is also my assumption. Also think Inside Out 2 might have been like Frozen in that they were surprised by how well it did. Anecdotally, I’ve seen basically nothing for that movie in the kid’s section when shopping at run of the mill places like Target and Kohl’s.

Is this just a post-Wish phenomenon, though?

My impression was that it started a while back around the same time as the company embraced the notion of franchises more than individual properties. Another example would be Zootopia, which was a monster hit but for which they produced surprisingly little merchandise and have only just recently started thinking about having a presence in the parks now that it is turning into a franchise.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think people just need to accept that toys and other merch is no longer (and probably hasn't been for while now) the barometer test on a movies impact.

Just like people need to accept that a Halloween costume metric also isn't the end all be all of a movie's cultural impact.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I think people just need to accept that toys and other merch is no longer (and probably hasn't been for while now) the barometer test on a movies impact.

Just like people need to accept that a Halloween costume metric also isn't the end all be all of a movie's cultural impact.

Yeah, but citing local Halloween "trends" is an easy way to dismiss a movie's performance with anecdotal data. Data that can't actually be verified.

Box office is the ultimate barometer. Anything else is often cherry picked examples.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Is this just a post-Wish phenomenon, though?

My impression was that it started a while back around the same time as the company embraced the notion of franchises more than individual properties. Another example would be Zootopia, which was a monster hit but for which they produced surprisingly little merchandise and have only just recently started thinking about having a presence in the parks now that it is turning into a franchise.

The IP in the parks thing has been going on for awhile, certainly. Like one of my criticisms of the Cars area is that it’s a decades old IP that could already be fading with Gen Alpha. (My son is a preschooler and while this is anecdotal, I don’t see kids that age talking about it, wearing the shirts, etc.)

With the merch - princess and princess adjacent characters certainly got merch, as did sequels (Toy Story, Cars, Wreck It Ralph, Finding Dory, Frozen, Incredibles, Star Wars, Marvel, Spider Verse although not sure who has merch rights to that). Looking back, I’m actually surprised to see how many of the movies of the past decade/s were part of a pre-existing franchise. For movies like Coco or Big Hero 6 I honestly can’t remember. So maybe Wish didn’t start the trend, but I’m fairly certain it didn’t help.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah, but citing local Halloween "trends" is an easy way to dismiss a movie's performance with anecdotal data. Data that can't actually be verified.

Box office is the ultimate barometer. Anything else is often cherry picked examples.

Agreed, and even then the box office can be misleading due to many factors that have been discussed in this and other threads over the last 5 years.

 

[Disney Irish]

The IP in the parks thing has been going on for awhile, certainly. Like one of my criticisms of the Cars area is that it’s a decades old IP that could already be fading with Gen Alpha. (My son is a preschooler and while this is anecdotal, I don’t see kids that age talking about it, wearing the shirts, etc.)

With the merch - princess and princess adjacent characters certainly got merch, as did sequels (Toy Story, Cars, Wreck It Ralph, Finding Dory, Frozen, Incredibles, Star Wars, Marvel, Spider Verse although not sure who has merch rights to that). Looking back, I’m actually surprised to see how many of the movies of the past decade/s were part of a pre-existing franchise. For movies like Coco or Big Hero 6 I honestly can’t remember. So maybe Wish didn’t start the trend, but I’m fairly certain it didn’t help.

Cars is just one of those franchises that seems to transcend a particular generation and appeals to many across the generational divide. I think Disney has enough data over the last almost 20 years since its release to know if its still a "seller" or not. For example you hardly ever see Cars Land in DCA empty, and RSR is one of the Parks top performers in terms of wait time. So it made sense to add the franchise with a new experience to WDW, avoiding the specific location debate, even if your particular child's peers aren't into the franchise now. As it doesn't mean they won't be into the attraction once it opens, which leads to merch sales down the line, thus completing the circle of life as it were.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Cars is just one of those franchises that seems to transcend a particular generation and appeals to many across the generational divide. I think Disney has enough data over the last almost 20 years since its release to know if its still a "seller" or not. For example you hardly ever see Cars Land in DCA empty, and RSR is one of the Parks top performers in terms of wait time. So it made sense to add the franchise with a new experience to WDW, avoiding the specific location debate, even if your particular child's peers aren't into the franchise now. As it doesn't mean they won't be into the attraction once it opens, which leads to merch sales down the line, thus completing the circle of life as it were.

Off topic so I’ll keep it brief but - yeah, there is a definite disconnect between what Disney must see with their streaming data and what I see with my own eyes. I’m around kids all the time and I rarely see so much as a Lightning McQueen shirt. I’m not doubting their data, I honestly just don’t get it. Ten years ago I heard kids talking about Cars frequently. Now it’s almost never.