Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sir_Cliff]

This aligns with what I’ve seen.

Our Target has a dedicated Disney section but most of it is devoted to tried and true characters like the princesses and Fab 5. There might be a handful of toys for new movies (stuffies, plastic characters) but not a full line of playsets like you would see for a Paw Patrol or Jurassic Park movie.

We also have a dedicated Lego section and new Disney movies often get representation there, although not always. I didn’t see anything for Inside Out or Elio.

I did notice 5 Below has a Stitch section in the front for their summer merchandise. Obviously that’s going to be pretty inexpensive stuff though. There are also a fair number of Stitch shirts in stores, but I think that predates the movie and just got a boost when the movie came out.

Yes, Lilo & Stitch definitely falls into a different category as one of their most profitable franchises even before this remake. Apparently it brought in $2.6 billion for them in 2024, which is pretty remarkable.

The "franchise mandate" seems to extend to merchandising, where they concentrate their efforts on lines that they know will bring in revenue and are happier to scramble to meet demand after the fact rather than risk over-estimating it.

I remember reading around the time Moana came out and there was talk of "disappointing" merchandising comparisons with Frozen that Disney's argument was that it was really when these titles were released on DVD that they start really moving merchandise. Not sure that's true, but it could be part of their calculation that it is easier to estimate and react to streaming number where the risk is less and reward is ultimately greater than with the initial cinema release when it comes to merchandising.

 

[Miss Rori]

I remember reading around the time Moana came out and there was talk of "disappointing" merchandising comparisons with Frozen that Disney's argument was that it was really when these titles were released on DVD that they start really moving merchandise. Not sure that's true, but it could be part of their calculation that it is easier to estimate and react to streaming number where the risk is less and reward is ultimately greater than with the initial cinema release when it comes to merchandising.

Well, there wasn't a big bump for merchandise sales for Lightyear or Wish when they hit physical media/streaming, so I think Disney might be hedging their bets these days when it comes to anything that they absolutely don't see as a "known" quantity like Lilo & Stitch is.

 

[Miss Rori]

This aligns with what I’ve seen.

Our Target has a dedicated Disney section but most of it is devoted to tried and true characters like the princesses and Fab 5. There might be a handful of toys for new movies (stuffies, plastic characters) but not a full line of playsets like you would see for a Paw Patrol or Jurassic Park movie.

Yeah, Moana 2 had a pretty modest selection of new toys and such - although that may have stemmed from it not originally being intended for theaters and the deals for new merch having to be inked late in the game. Again, I think Wish's failure really spooked them in this regard, because they went all out on that one.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes, my impression is that the days are long gone when a new Disney/Pixar animated feature was preceded by shelves stacked with merchandise and the characters showing up in the parks.

These days, they seem to err on the side of caution except, as you note, when they seem especially certain it will sell merchandise. Their problem is that they don't seem very good at anticipating what will and what won't sell merchandise!

As for the parks, they are even more cautious these days. It seems like it can take years for them to figure out how to represent something like Coco in the parks whereas films like Hercules and Mulan were preceded by full parades and even Emperor's New Groove had meet-and-greets despite the company's lack of faith in the film.

I agree, as I noted previously they do targeted merch releases still, like to the Parks or exclusive merch releases to specific stores but huge merch pushes to wide spread release not happening until they are sure it'll be a seller.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Yeah, Moana 2 had a pretty modest selection of new toys and such - although that may have stemmed from it not originally being intended for theaters and the deals for new merch having to be inked late in the game. Again, I think Wish's failure really spooked them in this regard, because they went all out on that one.

Them being spooked by Wish is also my assumption. Also think Inside Out 2 might have been like Frozen in that they were surprised by how well it did. Anecdotally, I’ve seen basically nothing for that movie in the kid’s section when shopping at run of the mill places like Target and Kohl’s.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Them being spooked by Wish is also my assumption. Also think Inside Out 2 might have been like Frozen in that they were surprised by how well it did. Anecdotally, I’ve seen basically nothing for that movie in the kid’s section when shopping at run of the mill places like Target and Kohl’s.

Is this just a post-Wish phenomenon, though?

My impression was that it started a while back around the same time as the company embraced the notion of franchises more than individual properties. Another example would be Zootopia, which was a monster hit but for which they produced surprisingly little merchandise and have only just recently started thinking about having a presence in the parks now that it is turning into a franchise.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think people just need to accept that toys and other merch is no longer (and probably hasn't been for while now) the barometer test on a movies impact.

Just like people need to accept that a Halloween costume metric also isn't the end all be all of a movie's cultural impact.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I think people just need to accept that toys and other merch is no longer (and probably hasn't been for while now) the barometer test on a movies impact.

Just like people need to accept that a Halloween costume metric also isn't the end all be all of a movie's cultural impact.

Yeah, but citing local Halloween "trends" is an easy way to dismiss a movie's performance with anecdotal data. Data that can't actually be verified.

Box office is the ultimate barometer. Anything else is often cherry picked examples.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Is this just a post-Wish phenomenon, though?

My impression was that it started a while back around the same time as the company embraced the notion of franchises more than individual properties. Another example would be Zootopia, which was a monster hit but for which they produced surprisingly little merchandise and have only just recently started thinking about having a presence in the parks now that it is turning into a franchise.

The IP in the parks thing has been going on for awhile, certainly. Like one of my criticisms of the Cars area is that it’s a decades old IP that could already be fading with Gen Alpha. (My son is a preschooler and while this is anecdotal, I don’t see kids that age talking about it, wearing the shirts, etc.)

With the merch - princess and princess adjacent characters certainly got merch, as did sequels (Toy Story, Cars, Wreck It Ralph, Finding Dory, Frozen, Incredibles, Star Wars, Marvel, Spider Verse although not sure who has merch rights to that). Looking back, I’m actually surprised to see how many of the movies of the past decade/s were part of a pre-existing franchise. For movies like Coco or Big Hero 6 I honestly can’t remember. So maybe Wish didn’t start the trend, but I’m fairly certain it didn’t help.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah, but citing local Halloween "trends" is an easy way to dismiss a movie's performance with anecdotal data. Data that can't actually be verified.

Box office is the ultimate barometer. Anything else is often cherry picked examples.

Agreed, and even then the box office can be misleading due to many factors that have been discussed in this and other threads over the last 5 years.

 

[Disney Irish]

The IP in the parks thing has been going on for awhile, certainly. Like one of my criticisms of the Cars area is that it’s a decades old IP that could already be fading with Gen Alpha. (My son is a preschooler and while this is anecdotal, I don’t see kids that age talking about it, wearing the shirts, etc.)

With the merch - princess and princess adjacent characters certainly got merch, as did sequels (Toy Story, Cars, Wreck It Ralph, Finding Dory, Frozen, Incredibles, Star Wars, Marvel, Spider Verse although not sure who has merch rights to that). Looking back, I’m actually surprised to see how many of the movies of the past decade/s were part of a pre-existing franchise. For movies like Coco or Big Hero 6 I honestly can’t remember. So maybe Wish didn’t start the trend, but I’m fairly certain it didn’t help.

Cars is just one of those franchises that seems to transcend a particular generation and appeals to many across the generational divide. I think Disney has enough data over the last almost 20 years since its release to know if its still a "seller" or not. For example you hardly ever see Cars Land in DCA empty, and RSR is one of the Parks top performers in terms of wait time. So it made sense to add the franchise with a new experience to WDW, avoiding the specific location debate, even if your particular child's peers aren't into the franchise now. As it doesn't mean they won't be into the attraction once it opens, which leads to merch sales down the line, thus completing the circle of life as it were.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Cars is just one of those franchises that seems to transcend a particular generation and appeals to many across the generational divide. I think Disney has enough data over the last almost 20 years since its release to know if its still a "seller" or not. For example you hardly ever see Cars Land in DCA empty, and RSR is one of the Parks top performers in terms of wait time. So it made sense to add the franchise with a new experience to WDW, avoiding the specific location debate, even if your particular child's peers aren't into the franchise now. As it doesn't mean they won't be into the attraction once it opens, which leads to merch sales down the line, thus completing the circle of life as it were.

Off topic so I’ll keep it brief but - yeah, there is a definite disconnect between what Disney must see with their streaming data and what I see with my own eyes. I’m around kids all the time and I rarely see so much as a Lightning McQueen shirt. I’m not doubting their data, I honestly just don’t get it. Ten years ago I heard kids talking about Cars frequently. Now it’s almost never.

 

[Disney Irish]

Off topic so I’ll keep it brief but - yeah, there is a definite disconnect between what Disney must see with their streaming data and what I see with my own eyes. I’m around kids all the time and I rarely see so much as a Lightning McQueen shirt. I’m not doubting their data, I honestly just don’t get it. Ten years ago I heard kids talking about Cars frequently. Now it’s almost never.

To bring this back to the topic at hand. They obviously have enough data saying its still a viable franchise that there have been rumors of a Cars 4 coming for a long time, with an update as recently as Dec 2023. Now this may not go anywhere as with all movies. But with the new land coming to MK, and potentially a new movie in the works, I think its safe to say that Disney believes that Cars is still and will continue to be a money maker for a long time to come.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Cars is just one of those franchises that seems to transcend a particular generation and appeals to many across the generational divide. I think Disney has enough data over the last almost 20 years since its release to know if its still a "seller" or not. For example you hardly ever see Cars Land in DCA empty, and RSR is one of the Parks top performers in terms of wait time. So it made sense to add the franchise with a new experience to WDW, avoiding the specific location debate, even if your particular child's peers aren't into the franchise now. As it doesn't mean they won't be into the attraction once it opens, which leads to merch sales down the line, thus completing the circle of life as it were.

Honestly, like a lot of popular Disney attractions not knowing the IP behind it is largely irrelevant if it's a good attraction.

A fast paced car ride through mountain terrain is appealing regardless of whether or not one likes, loves, or doesn't even know about, the Cars movies.

Likewise, I don't think Mr. Toad is dominating the streaming charts but the attraction stands on its' own.

 

[DisneyHead123]

To bring this back to the topic at hand. They obviously have enough data saying its still a viable franchise that there have been rumors of a Cars 4 coming for a long time, with an update as recently as Dec 2023. Now this may not go anywhere as with all movies. But with the new land coming to MK, and potentially a new movie in the works, I think its safe to say that Disney believes that Cars is still and will continue to be a money maker for a long time to come.

Yeah, obviously I don’t know what data they have. It just seems to me that preschool age boys all know Minecraft, Roblox, Mario, and Spider-Man. Beyond that there are several interests that are popular but not as ubiquitous - Sonic, dinosaurs / dragons, various types of vehicles, soccer, and so on. I never hear about Lightning anymore (heck, even the much more recent Minions don’t get a lot of airplay with kids I know). But again, Disney has their data to go on so kids must still be watching at home at least.

 

[TP2000]

Ps- I’m at the expo now!

Oh, I'm so glad you made it! What's the Canada pavilion like?

I hope you'll update us over in the Misc. Thoughts thread or something. I'll be in Kyoto this fall, and I am purposely putting two days on hold so I can take the train down to the World's Fair at least one of those days.

 

[TP2000]

Yeah, but citing local Halloween "trends" is an easy way to dismiss a movie's performance with anecdotal data. Data that can't actually be verified.

Box office is the ultimate barometer. Anything else is often cherry picked examples.

As you genuinely seem to be angered that the topic of Halloween costumes is used as part of a pop culture impact discussion, I should probably explain where that came from. It didn't start here in this thread.

It started over in a Disneyland forum thread 15 years ago, when discussing the Avatar land rumors for the parks and it's lack of pop culture impact a year after the first movie came out in 2009. It continued through the 2010's on the Disneyland forums as a fun and wacky side topic, with changing tastes as Star Wars and various Marvel and Princessy characters came and went over the years on the annual costume parade. Back then I lived in a neighborhood that was flooded with a hundred or more kids every Halloween. And I was famous in my neighborhood for giving out Best Costume gift baskets that I had made up every year at See's Candy. It was always a fun thing. Fun! Happy! Laugh! Candy!

It's mentioned here on occasion because a few of the posters here were on the Disneyland forums in the past 15 years and know it as a point of reference. It's obviously not scientific or quantifiable in any meaningful way. It's nothing more than a fun anecdote to see what the kids are into each year.

It's nothing to be angry about or annoyed by, but I can understand the confusion if you don't know the 15 year long backstory to how it came about as an occasional discussion point in regards to movie popularity and pop culture.

All that said, I wonder if I'm going to get any boys wearing eye patches on my door this Halloween? I'm not sensing it.

 

[TP2000]

I think people just need to accept that toys and other merch is no longer (and probably hasn't been for while now) the barometer test on a movies impact.

As I'm certainly no expert on children, I could buy into that if there were no other movies belching out huge amounts of plastic crap in the Target toy aisles.

But that's not the case at all. Jurassic Park and Superman both have huge end caps of displays, and Bluey is for sale all over. In 2019, Disney entered into a much ballyhooed partnership with Target in order to market and sell their IP merchandise.

But Elio (and several other recent mega-budget movies like Snow White, Elemental, etc.) are not worthy of so much as a t-shirt and a coloring book this month? That seems weird, and almost self-defeating.

 

[Disney Irish]

As I'm certainly no expert on children, I could buy into that if there were no other movies belching out huge amounts of plastic crap in the Target toy aisles.

But that's not the case at all. Jurassic Park and Superman both have huge end caps of displays, and Bluey is for sale all over. In 2019, Disney entered into a much ballyhooed partnership with Target in order to market and sell their IP merchandise.

But Elio (and several other recent mega-budget movies like Snow White, Elemental, etc.) are not worthy of so much as a t-shirt and a coloring book this month? That seems weird, and almost self-defeating.

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And what do all those toys have in common that you found, they have decades upon decades of sales behind them before their most recent movie. How many new franchises are you seeing with major toy pushes?

 

[TP2000]

How many new franchises are you seeing with major toy pushes?

I'd have to wait for the next new franchise launch. Or go back to Target.

In the children's book section, there was a bunch of different options for Bluey books, right on the same display that had the Elio book and the discounted Snow White and How To Be Taylor Swift books. You can't see all of them in this pic, as I was aiming at the Elio book, but the left side of that display had 10 or so different types of Bluey books/media for sale.

Does Bluey count? It's also sort of Disney, right? I'd need to return to seek out Bluey toys or t-shirts though, if they even exist.