Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I know, I hate math too. Try Google, it's so much easier! Just don't tell Miss Voight my 8th grade math teacher, she didn't allow slide rules in class.

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Lilo & Stitch
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Mufasa
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The Little Mermaid
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Aladdin
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Beauty & The Beast
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I figured that is how you are trying to calculate this, and the math doesn't work in this way. And again nobody tries to calculate international vs domestic this way. As mentioned you're take a final total of a movie already out of theaters and trying to do that for movie just released. You'll never get that same percentage to work for any movie, ever. For example if you did that same calculation for Force Awakens you'd get 119%, and that is nuts for a $2B movie where international did $1.1B and domestic did $936M. So you telling me that international for Force Awakens lagged, at over $1B? That just isn't the case and doesn't make sense. So I think your calculation is flawed here.

 

[Disney Irish]

Wow…T-bolts is only at $360 total through yesterday?

Man…that’s a lot closer to marvels than I had expected…woof

I still think it gets over $400M and lands right around where Cap4 is.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I figured that is how you are trying to calculate this, and the math doesn't work in this way. As mentioned you're take a final total of a movie already out of theaters and trying to do that for movie just released. You'll never get that same percentage to work for any movie, ever. For example if you did that same calculation for Force Awakens you'd get 119%, and that is nuts for a $2B movie where international did $1.1B and domestic did $936M. So you telling me that international for Force Awakens lagged? That just isn't the case and doesn't make sense. So I think you're calculation is flawed here.

Nah…you failed there. That’s a cherry pick.

That was an “event” movie…so it is outside of the normal pattern. And it is not a good movie at all…like the ole phantom menace which had similar final off balance bloat.

That’s really a Star Wars thing…which again doesn’t follow stereotype pattens (like Disney products in many ways)…the quintessential western/NATO archetype entertainment franchise

Now I agree he’s premature with the proclamation of stitch being so unbalanced…it will close that gap over the next couple of weeks. I wonder where it will end and that may come into ballpark view by Monday.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I still think it gets over $400M and lands right around where Cap4 is.

Maybe…

But that means both are total marvels fails

We know where we stand there

 

[Disney Irish]

Nah…you failed there. That’s a cherry pick.

That was an “event” movie…so it is outside of the normal pattern. And it is not a good movie at all…like the ole phantom menace which had similar final off balance bloat.

That’s really a Star Wars thing…which again doesn’t follow stereotype pattens (like Disney products in many ways)…the quintessential western/NATO archetype entertainment franchise

Now I agree he’s premature with the stitch proclamation of stitch being so unbalanced…it will close that gap over the next couple of weeks. I wonder where it will end and that may come into ballpark view by Monday.

Lol, its no different than TPs cherry picking of his data with every single one of his calculations. I used it specifically because to show its clear international outpaced domestic, but his calculation shows it "lagged" because it only got a small bump over 100% of domestic. Its a flawed calculation, one that no one in the entire industry uses that I'm aware.

Anyways, yes I agree I think international will pick up over the next couple weeks and will probably be closer to a more traditional 40/60 or 45/55 domestic/international split on the totals. I mean its already 48/52 so its not that far off.

 

[TP2000]

I figured that is how you are trying to calculate this,

You probably got tipped off when I said this about an hour ago...

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently at 98% of its domestic box office. That's not good.

Otherwise...

and the math doesn't work in this way. As mentioned you're take a final total of a movie already out of theaters and trying to do that for movie just released.

It's not a final total obviously because it's only been out a week. Instead, it's a current comparison and view at the overseas box office trajectory. It won't work if a movie is opening overseas in different countries over a period of weeks or months, but it's a good look at its basic box office split when the movie opens around the planet (except Japan) on the same weekend like Lilo & Stitch just did.

Currently, Lilo & Stitch has an overseas box office that is 98% of its domestic box office. That overseas number just shy of its domestic total should be much higher going into its second weekend if it wants to compare favorably at the global box office with Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Rachel Zegler's Snow White.

Lilo & Stitch is not performing nearly as strongly overseas, comparative to recent live action remakes, as it currently is domestically. That's not good.

 

[Disney Irish]

You probably got tipped off when I said this about an hour ago...



Otherwise...



It's not a final total obviously because it's only been out a week. Instead, it's a current comparison and view at the overseas box office trajectory. It won't work if a movie is opening overseas in different countries over a period of weeks or months, but it's a good look at its basic box office split when the movie opens around the planet (except Japan) on the same weekend like Lilo & Stitch just did.

Currently, Lilo & Stitch has an overseas box office that is 98% of its domestic box office. That overseas number just shy of its domestic total should be much higher going into its second weekend if it wants to compare favorably at the global box office with Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Rachel Zegler's Snow White.

Lilo & Stitch is not performing nearly as strongly overseas, comparative to recent live action remakes, as it currently is domestically. That's not good.

I'll just leave it by saying your calculation is flawed as its not really a real comparison, and no one in the industry calculates things that way.

Stitch currently sits at a 48/52 breakdown of domestic to international worldwide total, which is about average for a second weekend. International is starting to pick up and I suspect we'll end up with a 45/55 final which is not bad.

In the end it doesn't really matter the breakdown, it matters the total anyways.

 

[TP2000]

Wow…T-bolts is only at $360 total through yesterday?

Man…that’s a lot closer to marvels than I had expected…woof

Yeah, Thunderbolts is about to flatline, and it will be a money loser at the box office for Burbank. Even with the asterisk.

Thunderbolts: $180 Production, $90 Marketing, $106 Domestic, $73 Foreign = $91 Million Loss So Far

Thunderbolts* (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Thunderbolts* (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lol, its no different than TPs cherry picking of his data with every single one of his calculations. I used it specifically because to show its clear international outpaced domestic, but his calculation shows it "lagged" because it only got a small bump over 100% of domestic. Its a flawed calculation, one that no one in the entire industry uses that I'm aware.

Anyways, yes I agree I think international will pick up over the next couple weeks and will probably be closer to a more traditional 40/60 or 45/55 domestic/international split on the totals. I mean its already 48/52 so its not that far off.

Oh I’m not comparing the size of the cherries

They’re both hanging low off the tree

Using a Star Wars movie off a long hiatus is hard to use as a comparison.

Phantom movie was after 16 years and a feverish anticipation buildup that can never legitimately be duplicated. The farce awakens after 10 and the backlash from the prior one that is regarded as awful…believing Disney would right the ship…
In reality…they rolled it over completely

 

[TP2000]

I'll just leave it by saying your calculation is flawed, and no one in the industry calculates things that way.

I'm not in the movie industry. I was in the industrial supply industry, but I retired. So now I'm here.

In the end it doesn't really matter the breakdown, it matters the total anyways.

Yes, we'll know the totals for Lilo & Stitch about two months from now. Currently, it's foreign box office is at only 98% of its domestic box office, which is a comparatively weak performance and current trajectory.

I suspect its foreign box office will be at 110% (Thanks, Japan!) or less of its domestic box office, which is notably lower than other recent live action remakes that were successful. Maybe best case scenario (HUGE in Japan!!!) it gets a foreign box office that ends up at 125% of its domestic box office? That would still be much worse than the comparative foreign box office of Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Snow White.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm not in the movie industry. I was in the industrial supply industry, but I retired. So now I'm here.



Yes, we'll know the totals for Lilo & Stitch about two months from now. Currently, it's foreign box office is at only 98% of its domestic box office, which is a comparatively weak performance and current trajectory.

I suspect its foreign box office will be at 110% (Thanks, Japan!) or less of its domestic box office, which is notably lower than other recent live action remakes that were successful. Maybe best case scenario (HUGE in Japan!!!) it gets a foreign box office that ends up at 125% of its domestic box office? That would still be much worse than the comparative foreign box office of Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Snow White.

The point is if it does over $1B or even comes close who cares what this silly calc of yours says
Is the percentage? You think Disney cares? Obviously not nor do they even use it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not in the movie industry. I was in the industrial supply industry, but I retired. So now I'm here.

No need to explain that one. I second it.

No one here is anywhere close to being in the movie industry…or they wouldn’t be here. Just like people who “know”
Parks plans aren’t here either…cause they wouldn’t be bothered with it.

This is a fan forum…a Disney one…only certain bugs are attracted to the light. It’s not an academic think tank or cultural round table here

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The point is if it does over $1B or even comes close who cares what this silly calc of yours says
Is the percentage? You think Disney cares? Obviously not nor do they even use it.

If it does a billion and $580 of it is domestic…I don’t think any heads will roll out of the front gate of the studio…

There’s probably already a growing pile of heads from the list of flops with zero ancillary sales potential already

 

[Nevermore525]

Karate Kid trending toward a sub $20M opening weekend domestically.

Stitch trending closer to a $60M second weekend

 

[DisneyHead123]

What I’ve gleaned from this exchange is that it is common for the overseas box office to start out relatively slower but pick up over time… I wonder why that is? Do movies tend to run longer overseas?

Anyways, I still think Stitch will pick up nicely overseas through word of mouth. I suspect that after their short box office slump, people don’t automatically turn out for Disney in the same way - but when they hear good things, I think the box office will pick up.

 

[Disney Irish]

What I’ve gleaned from this exchange is that it is common for the overseas box office to start out relatively slower but pick up over time… I wonder why that is? Do movies tend to run longer overseas?

Anyways, I still think Stitch will pick up nicely overseas through word of mouth. I suspect that after their short box office slump, people don’t automatically turn out for Disney in the same way - but when they hear good things, I think the box office will pick up.

Since the early 2000s movies have tended to have larger box office totals overseas compared to domestic (US and Canada), largely because the whole world is bigger than just the US and Canada domestic market. So the percentage has skewed 40% domestic and 60% international, with varying degrees on either side. And having that is what lead to larger and larger box office totals, and how we got to $1B+ movies. So the theory is that the larger percentage of the total that skews international the larger the box office totals. Now that hasn't always been the case, as some movies end up closer to 50/50 and still hit $1B+. But its still the thought by many that you need a larger international percentage in order to get a bigger total, I don't necessarily subscribe to that thought.

Now to me I think a healthy percentage is 45/55 as studios tend to take home more of the money domestically than they do internationally. So a slight skew toward international good, but you don't want a huge percentage in my opinion. So anything way under 40/60 is bad in my opinion, like a 35/65 or 30/70 wouldn't be good. So a nice round 45/55 is the best in my opinion.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Since the early 2000s movies have tended to have larger box office totals overseas compared to domestic (US and Canada), largely because the whole world is bigger than just the US and Canada domestic market. So the percentage has skewed 40% domestic and 60% international, with varying degrees on either side. And having that is what lead to larger and larger box office totals, and how we got to $1B+ movies. So the theory is that the larger percentage of the total that skews international the larger the box office totals. Now that hasn't always been the case, as some movies end up closer to 50/50 and still hit $1B+. But its still the thought by many that you need a larger international percentage in order to get a bigger total, I don't necessarily subscribe to that thought.

Now to me I think a healthy percentage is 45/55 as studios tend to take home more of the money domestically than they do internationally. So a slight skew toward international good, but you don't want a huge percentage in my opinion. So anything way under 40/60 is bad in my opinion, like a 35/65 or 30/70 wouldn't be good. So a nice round 45/55 is the best in my opinion.

In that case I don’t think anyone actually disagrees on anything - the movie may “lag” overseas relatively, compared to other movies, but given the domestic reception that’s not a big deal.

I still think it will pick up overseas via word of mouth though.

 

[brideck]

Since the early 2000s movies have tended to have larger box office totals overseas compared to domestic (US and Canada), largely because the whole world is bigger than just the US and Canada domestic market. So the percentage has skewed 40% domestic and 60% international, with varying degrees on either side.

Or it's just possible that TP is comparing this to the wrong thing. Shocker, I know. Lilo & Stitch (in general) appears to be more popular domestically than in the rest of the world. Disney would know this ahead of time, and have no reason to panic the way that it's being implied that they should be.

Here's how the original animated movie did:

Not sure why'd you expect a sudden overseas surge now just because other movies have been popular there recently.

And lest you think that the OG's split is just because of the time period, here are the 2001 (Atlantis) and 2003 (Brother Bear) animated features:

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Karate Kid trending toward a sub $20M opening weekend domestically.

Stitch trending closer to a $60M second weekend

I don’t get the lack of promotion for karate kid?

It’s like they couldn’t be bothered

 

[DKampy]

I don’t get the lack of promotion for karate kid?

It’s like they couldn’t be bothered

From what I understand… from most reviews I have seen…Ralph Macchio is sort of an afterthought and is pretty useless in the movie… as if the whole point was just to attempt to get butts in seats…. With the success of Cobra Kai they should have leaned more into Macchio….IMO they should have tied it into the series without using plot threads from the show…. So you don’t alienate the general public but also attract Cobra Kai fans…. What was the point in delaying the film until the series was over