Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

That’s what I wanted to see - still hanging close to 10 mil. Consistency. Let’s see how the weekend goes. I’m optimistic.

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This is unusual to see how many showings of Stitch were “sold out” today. That remaining 8:30 slot has mostly just the first two (too close) rows open, plus a few scattered seats.

The 8pm showings of Karate Kid and MI are both around half full.

I think Stitch obviously keeps the top spot with $55-$80 million+ and Karate/MI2 battle it out for 2nd place in the $25-$35 million range.

I blame all of you for getting me to the point of reading all of this like a racing form!

Deadline is predicting $60M for Stitch, $27M for M:I, and $20M for Karate Kid.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Deadline is predicting $60M for Stitch, $27M for M:I, and $20M for Karate Kid.

See, they’re right in line with my total guesses lol.

 

[TP2000]

Wait…what???

Who was claiming “lag”?

Your buddy TP has been saying this week that overseas is underperforming (lagging), which as I posted its actually not.

See my post above. Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as of May 29th, heading into its second weekend in all markets except Japan (where it opens June 6th, and will likely do well but not make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance).

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently 98% of its domestic box office.
Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.
The Little Mermaid's foreign box office was 91% of its domestic box office.

I'd guess once Japan comes online, and by the time its leaving global theaters in late July, Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office will be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's an underwhelming overseas box office haul, comparatively.

Heck, you could even drag Rachel Zegler out of the morgue, and see that Snow White's foreign box office was 136% of its paltry domestic box office. Lilo & Stitch needs a big shot in the arm at the overseas box office this weekend.

 

[Disney Irish]

See my post above. Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as of May 29th, heading into its second weekend in all markets except Japan (where it opens June 6th, and will likely do well but not make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance).

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently 98% of its domestic box office.
Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.
The Little Mermaid's foreign box office was 91% of its domestic box office.

I'd guess once Japan comes online, and by the time its leaving global theaters in late July, Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office will be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's an underwhelming overseas box office haul, comparatively.

Heck, you could even drag Rachel Zegler out of the morgue, and see that Snow White's foreign box office was 136% of its paltry domestic box office. Lilo & Stitch needs a big shot in the arm at the overseas box office this weekend.

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But again you're doing this calculation based on what appears to be the FINAL numbers, NOT on the week-by-week numbers as one would do in an actual comparison. So you claim Stitch is lagging 6 days out compared to a movie that had 70+ days in the theater, I'm not sure how or why you think that is even relevant. If you want to do that comparison wait until Stitch goes out of theaters and then do that calculation. But it doesn't apply trying to compare week-to-week when you're not using week-to-week numbers. And this is why many of us question your numbers.

Also I've tried to do some quick math and I can't come up with these percentages that you have, so please show your math.

 

[Chi84]

But again you're doing this calculation based on what appears to be the FINAL numbers, NOT on the week-by-week numbers as one would do in an actual comparison. So you claim Stitch is lagging 6 days out compared to a movie that had 70+ days in the theater, I'm not sure how or why you think that is even relevant. If you want to do that comparison wait until Stitch goes out of theaters and then do that calculation. But it doesn't apply trying to compare week-to-week when you're not using week-to-week numbers. And this is why many of us question your numbers.

Also I've tried to do some quick math and I can't come up with these percentages that you have, so please show your math.

You’re going straight to heaven!

 

[TP2000]

Are you really looking at the final totals of where international ended up for those movies and trying to do a comparison to a movie just released? You know that is nuts right? You can't do a comparison that way.

Yes I can. In fact, I just did it. It's easy. And it's made easier by the fact Lilo & Stitch opened in all overseas markets except Japan at the same time it opened in the USA. The global box office data is updated daily.

It opens in Japan next Friday. There are about 25 Million women under age 40 in Japan, and I'm sure the movie will be successful there with that demographic. But those Japanese office ladies aren't going to make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance. Hopefully it'll get at least $50 Million out of Japan by July? The Stitch Encounter is always a walk-on whenever I've been at Tokyo Disneyland though, so....

Lilo & Stitch needs a current overseas box office that is 135% or higher of its domestic box office to help push it to the $850 Million or more globally we were all talking about two weeks ago. It's current trajectory isn't going to get there.

Where was Mufasa's international numbers after its opening weekend compared to its domestic? How about going into the second weekend? Same with every other movie you're trying to compare?

You're not doing a true apples-to-apples comparison. So you can't say the international numbers are lagging because you don't know, you aren't using the correct numbers.

The final global numbers won't be known for another seven or eight weeks. But the trajectory going into its second weekend is already very clear. See the data I posted above showing Lilo & Stitch currently with a foreign box office that is only 98% of its domestic box office.

Unless something dramatically changes overseas for weekends #2 and #3, Lilo & Stitch seems headed to a foreign box office take that will likely be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's not good, compared to recent live action remakes.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

See my post above. Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as of May 29th, heading into its second weekend in all markets except Japan (where it opens June 6th, and will likely do well but not make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance).

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently 98% of its domestic box office.
Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.
The Little Mermaid's foreign box office was 91% of its domestic box office.

I'd guess once Japan comes online, and by the time its leaving global theaters in late July, Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office will be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's an underwhelming overseas box office haul, comparatively.

Heck, you could even drag Rachel Zegler out of the morgue, and see that Snow White's foreign box office was 136% of its paltry domestic box office. Lilo & Stitch needs a big shot in the arm at the overseas box office this weekend.

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I think this one might be an outlier…not that it will go bugnuts like the domestics did…but it will make up some gap there.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes I can. In fact, I just did it. It's easy. And it's made easier by the fact Lilo & Stitch opened in all overseas markets except Japan at the same time it opened in the USA. The global box office data is updated daily.

It opens in Japan next Friday. There are about 25 Million women under age 40 in Japan, and I'm sure the movie will be successful there with that demographic. But those Japanese office ladies aren't going to make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance. Hopefully it'll get at least $50 Million out of Japan by July? The Stitch Encounter is always a walk-on whenever I've been at Tokyo Disneyland though, so....

Lilo & Stitch needs a current overseas box office that is 135% or higher of its domestic box office to help push it to the $850 Million or more globally we were all talking about two weeks ago. It's current trajectory isn't going to get there.



The final global numbers won't be known for another seven or eight weeks. But the trajectory going into its second weekend is already very clear. See the data I posted above showing Lilo & Stitch currently with a foreign box office that is only 98% of its domestic box office.

Unless something dramatically changes overseas for weekends #2 and #3, Lilo & Stitch seems headed to a foreign box office take that will likely be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's not good, compared to recent live action remakes.

Again please show your math, because these percentages aren't mathing out for me.

Also last I checked no one tracks things this way. They look at the WW totals and see what the percentage is of domestic compared to international, for example Stitch is currently sitting at about 48% domestic vs 52% international. Which is actually about average going into a second weekend for a Disney movie (if my quick look ups are correct).

So again I question these calculations you are doing as they don't make sense. And I'm not the only one questioning them, it appears no one seems to understand them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deadline is predicting $60M for Stitch, $27M for M:I, and $20M for Karate Kid.

I saw those totals this morning…

I think stitch will hit at $72…and I would lean towards karate kid beating out MI…

Kobra Kai hit in a lot of the right places with the right people to boost box office receipts

 

[Disney Irish]

I saw those totals this morning…

I think stitch will hit at $72…and I would lean towards karate kid beating out MI…

Kobra Kai hit in a lot of the right places with the right people to boost box office receipts

Could be....

I've seen Karate Kid, and those expecting a continuation or even reference to Cobra Kai are going to be disappointed.

 

[TP2000]

Also I've tried to do some quick math and I can't come up with these percentages that you have, so please show your math.

I know, I hate math too. Try Google, it's so much easier! Just don't tell Miss Voight my 8th grade math teacher, she didn't allow slide rules in class.

Lilo & Stitch

Mufasa

The Little Mermaid

Aladdin

Beauty & The Beast

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Could be....

I've seen Karate Kid, and those expecting a continuation or even reference to Cobra Kai are going to be disappointed.

Yeah…there probably is a misconception they’re similar and they’re not…

Not sure if that matters though as cobra Kai was pretty successful and has been around for like 8 years now?

The marketing has sucked…has there been any?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wow…T-bolts is only at $360 total through yesterday?

Man…that’s a lot closer to marvels than I had expected…woof

 

[Disney Irish]

I know, I hate math too. Try Google, it's so much easier! Just don't tell Miss Voight my 8th grade math teacher, she didn't allow slide rules in class.

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Lilo & Stitch
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Mufasa
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The Little Mermaid
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Aladdin
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Beauty & The Beast
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I figured that is how you are trying to calculate this, and the math doesn't work in this way. And again nobody tries to calculate international vs domestic this way. As mentioned you're take a final total of a movie already out of theaters and trying to do that for movie just released. You'll never get that same percentage to work for any movie, ever. For example if you did that same calculation for Force Awakens you'd get 119%, and that is nuts for a $2B movie where international did $1.1B and domestic did $936M. So you telling me that international for Force Awakens lagged, at over $1B? That just isn't the case and doesn't make sense. So I think your calculation is flawed here.

 

[Disney Irish]

Wow…T-bolts is only at $360 total through yesterday?

Man…that’s a lot closer to marvels than I had expected…woof

I still think it gets over $400M and lands right around where Cap4 is.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I figured that is how you are trying to calculate this, and the math doesn't work in this way. As mentioned you're take a final total of a movie already out of theaters and trying to do that for movie just released. You'll never get that same percentage to work for any movie, ever. For example if you did that same calculation for Force Awakens you'd get 119%, and that is nuts for a $2B movie where international did $1.1B and domestic did $936M. So you telling me that international for Force Awakens lagged? That just isn't the case and doesn't make sense. So I think you're calculation is flawed here.

Nah…you failed there. That’s a cherry pick.

That was an “event” movie…so it is outside of the normal pattern. And it is not a good movie at all…like the ole phantom menace which had similar final off balance bloat.

That’s really a Star Wars thing…which again doesn’t follow stereotype pattens (like Disney products in many ways)…the quintessential western/NATO archetype entertainment franchise

Now I agree he’s premature with the proclamation of stitch being so unbalanced…it will close that gap over the next couple of weeks. I wonder where it will end and that may come into ballpark view by Monday.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I still think it gets over $400M and lands right around where Cap4 is.

Maybe…

But that means both are total marvels fails

We know where we stand there

 

[Disney Irish]

Nah…you failed there. That’s a cherry pick.

That was an “event” movie…so it is outside of the normal pattern. And it is not a good movie at all…like the ole phantom menace which had similar final off balance bloat.

That’s really a Star Wars thing…which again doesn’t follow stereotype pattens (like Disney products in many ways)…the quintessential western/NATO archetype entertainment franchise

Now I agree he’s premature with the stitch proclamation of stitch being so unbalanced…it will close that gap over the next couple of weeks. I wonder where it will end and that may come into ballpark view by Monday.

Lol, its no different than TPs cherry picking of his data with every single one of his calculations. I used it specifically because to show its clear international outpaced domestic, but his calculation shows it "lagged" because it only got a small bump over 100% of domestic. Its a flawed calculation, one that no one in the entire industry uses that I'm aware.

Anyways, yes I agree I think international will pick up over the next couple weeks and will probably be closer to a more traditional 40/60 or 45/55 domestic/international split on the totals. I mean its already 48/52 so its not that far off.

 

[TP2000]

I figured that is how you are trying to calculate this,

You probably got tipped off when I said this about an hour ago...

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently at 98% of its domestic box office. That's not good.

Otherwise...

and the math doesn't work in this way. As mentioned you're take a final total of a movie already out of theaters and trying to do that for movie just released.

It's not a final total obviously because it's only been out a week. Instead, it's a current comparison and view at the overseas box office trajectory. It won't work if a movie is opening overseas in different countries over a period of weeks or months, but it's a good look at its basic box office split when the movie opens around the planet (except Japan) on the same weekend like Lilo & Stitch just did.

Currently, Lilo & Stitch has an overseas box office that is 98% of its domestic box office. That overseas number just shy of its domestic total should be much higher going into its second weekend if it wants to compare favorably at the global box office with Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Rachel Zegler's Snow White.

Lilo & Stitch is not performing nearly as strongly overseas, comparative to recent live action remakes, as it currently is domestically. That's not good.

 

[Disney Irish]

You probably got tipped off when I said this about an hour ago...



Otherwise...



It's not a final total obviously because it's only been out a week. Instead, it's a current comparison and view at the overseas box office trajectory. It won't work if a movie is opening overseas in different countries over a period of weeks or months, but it's a good look at its basic box office split when the movie opens around the planet (except Japan) on the same weekend like Lilo & Stitch just did.

Currently, Lilo & Stitch has an overseas box office that is 98% of its domestic box office. That overseas number just shy of its domestic total should be much higher going into its second weekend if it wants to compare favorably at the global box office with Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Rachel Zegler's Snow White.

Lilo & Stitch is not performing nearly as strongly overseas, comparative to recent live action remakes, as it currently is domestically. That's not good.

I'll just leave it by saying your calculation is flawed as its not really a real comparison, and no one in the industry calculates things that way.

Stitch currently sits at a 48/52 breakdown of domestic to international worldwide total, which is about average for a second weekend. International is starting to pick up and I suspect we'll end up with a 45/55 final which is not bad.

In the end it doesn't really matter the breakdown, it matters the total anyways.