Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Not this time. But you’re right, I’ll try to calm down. But I’m not liking what I’m seeing for Elio. I blame either Bob Iger or maybe those writers are being political!

Not sure what about Elio is making you think its "political" as it doesn't give me that vibe at all. But yes calm down, everything will be fine. As said many times before, even if Elio doesn't perform well its not the end of WDAS or Pixar. Both will still be fine.

Remember everything is a cycle, even if they end up doing sequels for awhile they will come back to more wholly original stories in the future.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Does any place post the daily numbers earlier than box office Mojo?

Most sites post around the same time (full daily numbers between 12-2pm PST) as its when the studios and other outlets provide them the information. So both The Numbers and BoxOfficeMojo update within an hour or so of each other.

I’m waiting!

 

[Disney Irish]

I have never seen any mission impossible movies, and have no interest. I watched the original television series when it was out.

With that said, keeping this group consistent:

Much like the Disney movies made during the same time, including Snow White, the budget for this latest Tom Cruise project was not planned to be as high as it became. The strikes and the pandemic drastically raised their costs.

Also, much like we say about Disney films, more money will be made on the back end. It may not break even for this particular film, but you’ll recall I posted something a few pages back explaining how this film increases the reach and profitability of the entire franchise, which brings in tens of millions every year.

No doubt, but trying to overcome a $300M-$500M deficit (my suspected loss on it) is a huge mountain to climb. Paramount/Skydance may not be able to fully breakeven on this one.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m waiting!

Mojo is sometimes slower on updating theirs, but Numbers is usually updated by this time. It seems to also be the go to site for everyone here so I've just sort of defaulted to it.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday October 9, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday October 9, 2025

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

What weakness exactly is this based on? It’s currently 50/50 and domestic had a holiday.

Based on some of the most popular live action remakes from Disney the past few years.

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently at 98% of its domestic box office. That's not good. Barely over half what it should be doing, compared to other recent popular live action remakes. (I think we can all agree to never use Rachel Zegler's Snow White as a normal comparison to anything, except potential future massive bombs)

Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.

The closest analogy so far for Lilo & Stitch was the foreign box office for The Little Mermaid, which was only 91% of its domestic box office. This was often assumed to be due to racism in many foreign countries, especially the nations of East Asia, Central America and South America who statistically had no desire to go see The Little Mermaid in theaters.

The point about Lilo & Stitch debuting on a holiday weekend in the USA is valid, but it probably only accounts for a small amount of that box office discrepancy in foreign lands. Probably just the extra $20 Million or so it got on Monday in the US, compared to the non-holiday Monday overseas.

As it stands now, Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as a percentage of domestic box office almost as badly as The Little Mermaid did. That's an Oof!, especially in Scandinavia's box office.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lilo-and-Stitch-(2025)

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Mojo is sometimes slower on updating theirs, but Numbers is usually updated by this time. It seems to also be the go to site for everyone here so I've just sort of defaulted to it.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday October 9, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday October 9, 2025

www.the-numbers.com

That’s what I wanted to see - still hanging close to 10 mil. Consistency. Let’s see how the weekend goes. I’m optimistic.

This is unusual to see how many showings of Stitch were “sold out” today. That remaining 8:30 slot has mostly just the first two (too close) rows open, plus a few scattered seats.

The 8pm showings of Karate Kid and MI are both around half full.

I think Stitch obviously keeps the top spot with $55-$80 million+ and Karate/MI2 battle it out for 2nd place in the $25-$35 million range.

I blame all of you for getting me to the point of reading all of this like a racing form!

 

[Disney Irish]

Based on some of the most popular live action remakes from Disney the past few years.

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently at 98% of its domestic box office. That's not good. Barely over half what it should be doing, compared to other recent popular live action remakes. (I think we can all agree to never use Rachel Zegler's Snow White as a normal comparison to anything, except potential future massive bombs)

Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.

The closest analogy so far for Lilo & Stitch was the foreign box office for The Little Mermaid, which was only 91% of its domestic box office. This was often assumed to be due to racism in many foreign countries, especially the nations of East Asia, Central America and South America who statistically had no desire to go see The Little Mermaid in theaters.

The point about Lilo & Stitch debuting on a holiday weekend in the USA is valid, but it probably only accounts for a small amount of that box office discrepancy in foreign lands. Probably just the extra $20 Million or so it got on Monday in the US, compared to the non-holiday Monday overseas.

As it stands now, Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as a percentage of domestic box office almost as badly as The Little Mermaid did. That's an Oof!, especially in Scandinavia's box office.

View attachment 861607

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Lilo-and-Stitch-(2025)

Are you really looking at the final totals of where international ended up for those movies and trying to do a comparison to a movie just released? You know that is nuts right? You can't do a comparison that way.

Where was Mufasa's international numbers after its opening weekend compared to its domestic? How about going into the second weekend? Same with every other movie you're trying to compare?

You're not doing a true apples-to-apples comparison. So you can't say the international numbers are lagging because you don't know, you aren't using the correct numbers.

 

[Disney Irish]

That’s what I wanted to see - still hanging close to 10 mil. Consistency. Let’s see how the weekend goes. I’m optimistic.

View attachment 861608
This is unusual to see how many showings of Stitch were “sold out” today. That remaining 8:30 slot has mostly just the first two (too close) rows open, plus a few scattered seats.

The 8pm showings of Karate Kid and MI are both around half full.

I think Stitch obviously keeps the top spot with $55-$80 million+ and Karate/MI2 battle it out for 2nd place in the $25-$35 million range.

I blame all of you for getting me to the point of reading all of this like a racing form!

Deadline is predicting $60M for Stitch, $27M for M:I, and $20M for Karate Kid.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Deadline is predicting $60M for Stitch, $27M for M:I, and $20M for Karate Kid.

See, they’re right in line with my total guesses lol.

 

[TP2000]

Wait…what???

Who was claiming “lag”?

Your buddy TP has been saying this week that overseas is underperforming (lagging), which as I posted its actually not.

See my post above. Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as of May 29th, heading into its second weekend in all markets except Japan (where it opens June 6th, and will likely do well but not make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance).

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently 98% of its domestic box office.
Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.
The Little Mermaid's foreign box office was 91% of its domestic box office.

I'd guess once Japan comes online, and by the time its leaving global theaters in late July, Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office will be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's an underwhelming overseas box office haul, comparatively.

Heck, you could even drag Rachel Zegler out of the morgue, and see that Snow White's foreign box office was 136% of its paltry domestic box office. Lilo & Stitch needs a big shot in the arm at the overseas box office this weekend.

 

[Disney Irish]

See my post above. Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as of May 29th, heading into its second weekend in all markets except Japan (where it opens June 6th, and will likely do well but not make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance).

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently 98% of its domestic box office.
Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.
The Little Mermaid's foreign box office was 91% of its domestic box office.

I'd guess once Japan comes online, and by the time its leaving global theaters in late July, Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office will be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's an underwhelming overseas box office haul, comparatively.

Heck, you could even drag Rachel Zegler out of the morgue, and see that Snow White's foreign box office was 136% of its paltry domestic box office. Lilo & Stitch needs a big shot in the arm at the overseas box office this weekend.

View attachment 861611

But again you're doing this calculation based on what appears to be the FINAL numbers, NOT on the week-by-week numbers as one would do in an actual comparison. So you claim Stitch is lagging 6 days out compared to a movie that had 70+ days in the theater, I'm not sure how or why you think that is even relevant. If you want to do that comparison wait until Stitch goes out of theaters and then do that calculation. But it doesn't apply trying to compare week-to-week when you're not using week-to-week numbers. And this is why many of us question your numbers.

Also I've tried to do some quick math and I can't come up with these percentages that you have, so please show your math.

 

[Chi84]

But again you're doing this calculation based on what appears to be the FINAL numbers, NOT on the week-by-week numbers as one would do in an actual comparison. So you claim Stitch is lagging 6 days out compared to a movie that had 70+ days in the theater, I'm not sure how or why you think that is even relevant. If you want to do that comparison wait until Stitch goes out of theaters and then do that calculation. But it doesn't apply trying to compare week-to-week when you're not using week-to-week numbers. And this is why many of us question your numbers.

Also I've tried to do some quick math and I can't come up with these percentages that you have, so please show your math.

You’re going straight to heaven!

 

[TP2000]

Are you really looking at the final totals of where international ended up for those movies and trying to do a comparison to a movie just released? You know that is nuts right? You can't do a comparison that way.

Yes I can. In fact, I just did it. It's easy. And it's made easier by the fact Lilo & Stitch opened in all overseas markets except Japan at the same time it opened in the USA. The global box office data is updated daily.

It opens in Japan next Friday. There are about 25 Million women under age 40 in Japan, and I'm sure the movie will be successful there with that demographic. But those Japanese office ladies aren't going to make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance. Hopefully it'll get at least $50 Million out of Japan by July? The Stitch Encounter is always a walk-on whenever I've been at Tokyo Disneyland though, so....

Lilo & Stitch needs a current overseas box office that is 135% or higher of its domestic box office to help push it to the $850 Million or more globally we were all talking about two weeks ago. It's current trajectory isn't going to get there.

Where was Mufasa's international numbers after its opening weekend compared to its domestic? How about going into the second weekend? Same with every other movie you're trying to compare?

You're not doing a true apples-to-apples comparison. So you can't say the international numbers are lagging because you don't know, you aren't using the correct numbers.

The final global numbers won't be known for another seven or eight weeks. But the trajectory going into its second weekend is already very clear. See the data I posted above showing Lilo & Stitch currently with a foreign box office that is only 98% of its domestic box office.

Unless something dramatically changes overseas for weekends #2 and #3, Lilo & Stitch seems headed to a foreign box office take that will likely be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's not good, compared to recent live action remakes.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

See my post above. Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as of May 29th, heading into its second weekend in all markets except Japan (where it opens June 6th, and will likely do well but not make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance).

Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office is currently 98% of its domestic box office.
Mufasa's foreign box office was 184% of its domestic box office.
Aladdin's foreign box office was 193% of its domestic box office.
BatB's foreign box office was 151% of its domestic box office.
The Little Mermaid's foreign box office was 91% of its domestic box office.

I'd guess once Japan comes online, and by the time its leaving global theaters in late July, Lilo & Stitch's foreign box office will be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's an underwhelming overseas box office haul, comparatively.

Heck, you could even drag Rachel Zegler out of the morgue, and see that Snow White's foreign box office was 136% of its paltry domestic box office. Lilo & Stitch needs a big shot in the arm at the overseas box office this weekend.

View attachment 861611

I think this one might be an outlier…not that it will go bugnuts like the domestics did…but it will make up some gap there.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes I can. In fact, I just did it. It's easy. And it's made easier by the fact Lilo & Stitch opened in all overseas markets except Japan at the same time it opened in the USA. The global box office data is updated daily.

It opens in Japan next Friday. There are about 25 Million women under age 40 in Japan, and I'm sure the movie will be successful there with that demographic. But those Japanese office ladies aren't going to make up for the rest of the planet's underperformance. Hopefully it'll get at least $50 Million out of Japan by July? The Stitch Encounter is always a walk-on whenever I've been at Tokyo Disneyland though, so....

Lilo & Stitch needs a current overseas box office that is 135% or higher of its domestic box office to help push it to the $850 Million or more globally we were all talking about two weeks ago. It's current trajectory isn't going to get there.



The final global numbers won't be known for another seven or eight weeks. But the trajectory going into its second weekend is already very clear. See the data I posted above showing Lilo & Stitch currently with a foreign box office that is only 98% of its domestic box office.

Unless something dramatically changes overseas for weekends #2 and #3, Lilo & Stitch seems headed to a foreign box office take that will likely be 110% or less of its domestic box office. That's not good, compared to recent live action remakes.

Again please show your math, because these percentages aren't mathing out for me.

Also last I checked no one tracks things this way. They look at the WW totals and see what the percentage is of domestic compared to international, for example Stitch is currently sitting at about 48% domestic vs 52% international. Which is actually about average going into a second weekend for a Disney movie (if my quick look ups are correct).

So again I question these calculations you are doing as they don't make sense. And I'm not the only one questioning them, it appears no one seems to understand them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deadline is predicting $60M for Stitch, $27M for M:I, and $20M for Karate Kid.

I saw those totals this morning…

I think stitch will hit at $72…and I would lean towards karate kid beating out MI…

Kobra Kai hit in a lot of the right places with the right people to boost box office receipts

 

[Disney Irish]

I saw those totals this morning…

I think stitch will hit at $72…and I would lean towards karate kid beating out MI…

Kobra Kai hit in a lot of the right places with the right people to boost box office receipts

Could be....

I've seen Karate Kid, and those expecting a continuation or even reference to Cobra Kai are going to be disappointed.

 

[TP2000]

Also I've tried to do some quick math and I can't come up with these percentages that you have, so please show your math.

I know, I hate math too. Try Google, it's so much easier! Just don't tell Miss Voight my 8th grade math teacher, she didn't allow slide rules in class.

Lilo & Stitch

Mufasa

The Little Mermaid

Aladdin

Beauty & The Beast

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Could be....

I've seen Karate Kid, and those expecting a continuation or even reference to Cobra Kai are going to be disappointed.

Yeah…there probably is a misconception they’re similar and they’re not…

Not sure if that matters though as cobra Kai was pretty successful and has been around for like 8 years now?

The marketing has sucked…has there been any?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wow…T-bolts is only at $360 total through yesterday?

Man…that’s a lot closer to marvels than I had expected…woof