Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyHead123]

I am beginning to think we are maybe early/overestimating the “influence” of social media influence on the box office just a touch.

There are a ton of critical posts about the ending on Reddit. In one a commenter suggested that said posts keep popping up because of "karma farming", which I guess is the equivalent of getting a ton of likes on social media (only more pointless, because who cares how much karma an unknown person has on Reddit?) Apparently once a topic proves to be hot and clickworthy, you'll see a bunch of posts about it pop up for the karma, which would skew perception as to public discourse.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There are a ton of critical posts about the ending on Reddit. In one a commenter suggested that said posts keep popping up because of "karma farming", which I guess is the equivalent of getting a ton of likes on social media (only more pointless, because who cares how much karma an unknown person has on Reddit?) Apparently once a topic proves to be hot and clickworthy, you'll see a bunch of posts about it pop up for the karma, which would skew perception as to public discourse.

Oh I don’t doubt that…

Algorithms are evil…which is why the companies are willing to kill and pay off governments to guard them…

Combine that with people using the T1000s to now “do the work”…you got trouble in the coffee pot

I just don’t see a complete dominance by SM…yet…

Which I’ll remind when one of this nimrod podcasters who shows up occasionally to talk about SM metrics (but isn’t old enough to rent a car) and speaks with certainty about them. Think thunderbolts crashed after such prognostications and fantastic four is gonna be another test

 

[Disney Irish]

What I find funny is that no one has mentioned that M:I8 has basically cratered and is looking to be one of the biggest flops of 2025 if not of all time compared to its budget. All of Disney's recent flops look like successes compared to it.

If it doesn't improve over the coming weeks Paramount/Skydance looks to lose between $300M-$500M depending on how much they paid for marketing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What I find funny is that no one has mentioned that M:I8 has basically cratered and is looking to be one of the biggest flops of 2025 if not of all time compared to its budget. All of Disney's recent flops look like successes compared to it.

If it doesn't improve over the coming weeks Paramount/Skydance looks to lose between $300M-$500M depending on how much they paid for marketing.

I figured we would get to that…

The one last year was kinda tank too wasn’t it?


That’s classic franchise fatigue move

They should call the next one: mission impossible: fast and furious world Dominion

 

[Disney Irish]

I figured we would get to that…

The one last year was kinda tank too wasn’t it?


That’s classic franchise fatigue move

They should call the next one: mission impossible: fast and furious world Dominion

I mean the $400M budget doesn't help, but yeah franchise fatigue is right. Not to mention that Cruise is 62 and I don't think anyone wants to see him break a hip on-screen with all his running (and he does even more running in this movie compared to the others), just like they didn't for Ford at 82 in Indy 5.

M:I7 released in 2023 and the excuse of it bombing was it went up against Barbenheimer, which I never bought.

Anyways, yeah its going to be the biggest flop of all time I predict. Basically surpassing Disney's John Carter and Lone Ranger which I believe currently holds the record.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mean the $400M budget doesn't help, but yeah franchise fatigue is right. Not to mention that Cruise is 62 and I don't think anyone wants to see him break a hip on-screen with all his running (and he does even more running in this movie compared to the others), just like they didn't for Ford at 82 in Indy 5.

M:I7 released in 2023 and the excuse of it bombing was it went up against Barbenheimer, which I never bought.

Anyways, yeah its going to be the biggest flop of all time I predict. Basically surpassing Disney's John Carter and Lone Ranger which I believe currently holds the record.

Cruise has too much control over the studios…I think that’s obvious at this point.

Needs to get pulled back

Very similar to a Disney lesson: they gave drunken Johnny depp a blank check, too much power and lost control…and were so shell shocked by the fallout that they screwed the avengers

Mistakes doubling over themselves

 

[BrianLo]

I mean the $400M budget doesn't help, but yeah franchise fatigue is right. Not to mention that Cruise is 62 and I don't think anyone wants to see him break a hip on-screen with all his running (and he does even more running in this movie compared to the others), just like they didn't for Ford at 82 in Indy 5.

M:I7 released in 2023 and the excuse of it bombing was it went up against Barbenheimer, which I never bought.

Anyways, yeah its going to be the biggest flop of all time I predict. Basically surpassing Disney's John Carter and Lone Ranger which I believe currently holds the record.

I’d reasonably drop this one to a 2.25X multiple for the opposite reasons of stitch.

A few quick calculations and I’d put the loses near John Carter, which is quite similar to The Marvels (and Snow) post inflation. That breakpoint I think is around 425M. If it makes much less than that it really will be in contention for the biggest flop of all time.

I don’t really understand what they were thinking based on the last one. I think there was some starry eyed execs looking at Top Gun Maverick.

 

[BrianLo]

‘Thunderbolts' Will Not Escape Being The Second Lowest-Earning MCU Film

Thunderbolts is great. It’s also hovering near the absolute bottom of the MCU box office, even as it passes a milestone of $300 million globally, now at $355.

www.forbes.com

This is a very odd quote from Paul, who I’d think would usually know better. Clearly I don’t trust his box office reads.

“If Thunderbolts got $20-25 million more it could have passed the first Captain America and Black Widow, but it’s just not going to happen.”

It will probably do that by the end of this weekend worldwide. Most certainly it’s going to live its life in the lower 400’s, no denial there that there is some magical tail. By there is a normal tail. Helpful to see where it lands in his list I guess, but that declaration is awfully premature.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’d reasonably drop this one to a 2.25X multiple for the opposite reasons of stitch.

A few quick calculations and I’d put the loses near John Carter, which is quite similar to The Marvels (and Snow) post inflation. That breakpoint I think is around 425M. If it makes much less than that it really will be in contention for the biggest flop of all time.

I don’t really understand what they were thinking based on the last one. I think there was some starry eyed execs looking at Top Gun Maverick.

Two things:

1. Why is everyone convinced that the “break even points” keep dropping? That’s opposite of 99.999% of every documented cost in the History of this here planet…
2. Wouldn’t these have been in production long before the release of Maverick?

Yeah…that one held in the can for a couple of extra years…but the big cash in wasn’t too long ago

 

[Disney Irish]

I’d reasonably drop this one to a 2.25X multiple for the opposite reasons of stitch.

A few quick calculations and I’d put the loses near John Carter, which is quite similar to The Marvels (and Snow) post inflation. That breakpoint I think is around 425M. If it makes much less than that it really will be in contention for the biggest flop of all time.

I don’t really understand what they were thinking based on the last one. I think there was some starry eyed execs looking at Top Gun Maverick.

At 2.25X that would have to have a huge couple of weeks and I just don't see that happening with the release calendar now heating up. Ballerina next week basically is the same audience, so that'll suck up any oxygen that M:I had going for it in my opinion. The only hope for it would be Father's day the following week, but with How to Train your Dragon, Stitch, Karate Kid, and Ballerina, I think there is too much in theaters for it to be an option.

So I guess we'll see but I'm just not optimistic for it like I am other films.

 

[Disney Irish]

Two things:

1. Why is everyone convinced that the “break even points” keep dropping? That’s opposite of 99.999% of every documents cost in the History of this here planet…
2. Wouldn’t these have been in production long before the release of Maverick?

Yeah…that one held in the can for a couple of extra years…but the big cash in wasn’t too long ago

I think what he means is the break point for biggest flop in history.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

What I find funny is that no one has mentioned that M:I8 has basically cratered and is looking to be one of the biggest flops of 2025 if not of all time compared to its budget. All of Disney's recent flops look like successes compared to it.

If it doesn't improve over the coming weeks Paramount/Skydance looks to lose between $300M-$500M depending on how much they paid for marketing.

I thought this summer would be Barbenheimer 2 - Mission: Stitch.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is a very odd quote from Paul, who I’d think would usually know better. Clearly I don’t trust his box office reads.

“If Thunderbolts got $20-25 million more it could have passed the first Captain America and Black Widow, but it’s just not going to happen.”

It will probably do that by the end of this weekend worldwide. Most certainly it’s going to live its life in the lower 400’s, no denial there that there is some magical tail. By there is a normal tail. Helpful to see where it lands in his list I guess, but that declaration is awfully premature.

I think I’m on record of saying that there’s a mass overestimation of legs in this little think tank…

Grosses after week 3-4 are most consistently not even worth noting.

There are exceptions to the rules of course

But a good bet is thunderbolts ain’t one of them.

And besides…cap 4 was a failure…so we need a better measuring stick

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think what he means is the break point for biggest flop in history.

God I hope so

Didn’t they have a combined shoot for the last two movies though?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

At 2.25X that would have to have a huge couple of weeks and I just don't see that happening with the release calendar now heating up. Ballerina next week basically is the same audience, so that'll suck up any oxygen that M:I had going for it in my opinion. The only hope for it would be Father's day the following week, but with How to Train your Dragon, Stitch, Karate Kid, and Ballerina, I think there is too much in theaters for it to be an option.

So I guess we'll see but I'm just not optimistic for it like I am other films.

That and nobody seems to care about these movies anymore

 

[BrianLo]

Two things:

1. Why is everyone convinced that the “break even points” keep dropping? That’s opposite of 99.999% of every documents cost in the History of this here planet…

Not at all, I actually raised it for Stitch. It’s when the production budgets are wildly different from tent pole norms. For example, in order to have the same break points, you’d have to agree that Mission Impossibles marketing and other costs were also 4X that of Stitch. I don’t think any of us believe that.

As Irish said it was a 425M breakpoint on the biggest flop in history. But a 900M on profit. Which is clearly sufficiently absurd.

2. Wouldn’t these have been in production long before the release of Maverick?

Yeah…that one held in the can for a couple of extra years…but the big cash in wasn’t too long ago

The second part started filming after Maverick, but before Dead Reckoning One’s mediocre financial performance. Mediocre for the production spend at least. I guess they had gone too far to change course.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not at all, I actually raised it for Stitch. It’s when the production budgets are wildly different from tent pole norms. For example, in order to have the same break points, you’d have to agree that Mission Impossibles marketing and other costs were also 4X that of Stitch. I don’t think any of us believe that.

As Irish said it was a 425M breakpoint on the biggest flop in history. But a 900M on profit. Which is clearly is absurd

I think we are going along with a shell game of late…

These costs didn’t all of sudden “come in line” in the last couple of years as they started posting frequent flops on the board.

It’s really convenient and sometimes convenience is a lie

I don’t think stitch cost $100…I don’t believe the actual all in marketing budgets of really anything quoted these days…and no way cap 4 conveniently was $200…that $296 and change number keeps popping back up (reshoots cost more for what you get…never less)

But that’s just me and the tinfoil is too tight

 

[Disney Irish]

Didn’t they have a combined shoot for the last two movies though?

They were suppose to, but there was a delay due to the pandemic and then the Hollywood strikes. Its why Ving didn't come back for Stitch unlike the other voice cast as both Stitch and M:I8 were filming at the same time in 2024.

That and nobody seems to care about these movies anymore

I think if it had released into a less crowded period it might have had a shot, but once it has major competition well its no longer an option in my opinion.

 

[brideck]

I think I’m on record of saying that there’s a mass overestimation of legs in this little think tank…

Grosses after week 3-4 are most consistently not even worth noting.

There are exceptions to the rules of course

But a good bet is thunderbolts ain’t one of them.

And besides…cap 4 was a failure…so we need a better measuring stick

Would you take realistic estimation of legs? [Note: There is no argument being made that anything that follows designates a success.]

Cap 4 made a touch over $20m domestically (and presumably about the same internationally) from the comparable point in its release (going into its 5th weekend) to when it finally disappeared from screens. Thunderbolts* has had marginally better legs than Cap 4 (albeit from a lower opening starting point).

So yeah, it should make somewhere around $40m yet from the global box office before it's done. Brian is not wrong to call out that Forbes article as being inappropriately pessimistic.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Would you take realistic estimation of legs? [Note: There is no argument being made that anything that follows designates a success.]

Cap 4 made a touch over $20m domestically (and presumably about the same internationally) from the comparable point in its release (going into its 5th weekend) to when it finally disappeared from screens. Thunderbolts* has had marginally better legs than Cap 4 (albeit from a lower opening starting point).

So yeah, it should make somewhere around $40m yet from the global box office before it's done. Brian is not wrong to call out that Forbes article as being inappropriately pessimistic.

Is see his point…it’s a risky assertion for a Forbes article

But $20…$40…is nothing in today’s dollars. And will be less tomorrow…and on and on