Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You are correct. It’s neither worrying and partially a misunderstanding with another part getting stuck in negative criticism loop. This one is pretty hard to diminish though.

That’s why the “buts” can really take a break on this

Really hard to knock this one down off its money perch

Also remember this sells product like wildfire anyway. That was standard going in

I think it’s gonna outperform its already substantial estimates this weekend as well

My guess is like $70 mil domestic

 

[Disney Irish]

Lag compared to the domestic total? Or underperforming in their markets?

The first isn’t trouble…the second could be

And “some” is a term for multiple…or suggesting a block trying to form consensus
As in “there are some scarecrows out in the field…not just a single strawman”

Its the former rather than the latter, and agree its not troubling at all. As @BrianLo mentioned I believe its a misunderstanding of trying to compare x with y and expecting the same outcome immediately. Which as we have seen over the last few years just doesn't always equate. In the end Stitch just like many movies will have a larger percentage of its WW total being from international, the only question is how much. In the end I don't think it really matters, as both domestic and international are strong with this one, which is a good thing in my opinion.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Does any place post the daily numbers earlier than box office Mojo?

 

[Disney Irish]

Does any place post the daily numbers earlier than box office Mojo?

Most sites post around the same time (full daily numbers between 12-2pm PST) as its when the studios and other outlets provide them the information. So both The Numbers and BoxOfficeMojo update within an hour or so of each other.

 

[Ghost93]

I predict Mufasa-esque legs for Stitch.

There is still a hate campaign for this one. It’s all over facebook. Can’t really say why without a minor spoiler about the ending, but suffice to say it involves a lot of pearl clutching and woke accusations.

They just look for it everywhere now. Especially Disney movies. Any character who is not a cretin is now “woke” because they don’t know what that word means.

There's actually a lot of progressive people who dislike the ending of the remake and criticizing it as anti-indigenous/pro-colonialism. I'm sure that wasn't at all Disney's intent, but people are reading it that way.

I'm not seeing the remake, but not because it's woke or anti-woke. I simply have no desire to see a remake to a movie that was made in the 21st century. It's waaaaay too soon. I also think the original animated film is perfect and there is no need for a new adaptation, other than to advanced Disney's continued assault on traditional animation.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I predict Mufasa-esque legs for Stitch.

There is still a hate campaign for this one. It’s all over facebook. Can’t really say why without a minor spoiler about the ending, but suffice to say it involves a lot of pearl clutching and woke accusations.

They just look for it everywhere now. Especially Disney movies. Any character who is not a cretin is now “woke” because they don’t know what that word means.

…interesting…

Didn’t see anything more implausible or “woke” about this than the 23 year old cartoon version

But I’m no cultural expert

I am beginning to think we are maybe early/overestimating the “influence” of social media influence on the box office just a touch.

Trailer clicks don’t seem to correlate 1:1 with smash hits…online smears don’t take down others.

I think those resonate with certain demos more and that matters…but not necessarily with the paying customers that drive the car.

We have to consider tech and society are evolving and new bellweathers are being formed…but they might not be as far along as assumed.

Hollywood already made this mistake with content. The change is happening…they just miscalculated the pacing.

 

[DisneyHead123]

I am beginning to think we are maybe early/overestimating the “influence” of social media influence on the box office just a touch.

There are a ton of critical posts about the ending on Reddit. In one a commenter suggested that said posts keep popping up because of "karma farming", which I guess is the equivalent of getting a ton of likes on social media (only more pointless, because who cares how much karma an unknown person has on Reddit?) Apparently once a topic proves to be hot and clickworthy, you'll see a bunch of posts about it pop up for the karma, which would skew perception as to public discourse.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There are a ton of critical posts about the ending on Reddit. In one a commenter suggested that said posts keep popping up because of "karma farming", which I guess is the equivalent of getting a ton of likes on social media (only more pointless, because who cares how much karma an unknown person has on Reddit?) Apparently once a topic proves to be hot and clickworthy, you'll see a bunch of posts about it pop up for the karma, which would skew perception as to public discourse.

Oh I don’t doubt that…

Algorithms are evil…which is why the companies are willing to kill and pay off governments to guard them…

Combine that with people using the T1000s to now “do the work”…you got trouble in the coffee pot

I just don’t see a complete dominance by SM…yet…

Which I’ll remind when one of this nimrod podcasters who shows up occasionally to talk about SM metrics (but isn’t old enough to rent a car) and speaks with certainty about them. Think thunderbolts crashed after such prognostications and fantastic four is gonna be another test

 

[Disney Irish]

What I find funny is that no one has mentioned that M:I8 has basically cratered and is looking to be one of the biggest flops of 2025 if not of all time compared to its budget. All of Disney's recent flops look like successes compared to it.

If it doesn't improve over the coming weeks Paramount/Skydance looks to lose between $300M-$500M depending on how much they paid for marketing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What I find funny is that no one has mentioned that M:I8 has basically cratered and is looking to be one of the biggest flops of 2025 if not of all time compared to its budget. All of Disney's recent flops look like successes compared to it.

If it doesn't improve over the coming weeks Paramount/Skydance looks to lose between $300M-$500M depending on how much they paid for marketing.

I figured we would get to that…

The one last year was kinda tank too wasn’t it?


That’s classic franchise fatigue move

They should call the next one: mission impossible: fast and furious world Dominion

 

[Disney Irish]

I figured we would get to that…

The one last year was kinda tank too wasn’t it?


That’s classic franchise fatigue move

They should call the next one: mission impossible: fast and furious world Dominion

I mean the $400M budget doesn't help, but yeah franchise fatigue is right. Not to mention that Cruise is 62 and I don't think anyone wants to see him break a hip on-screen with all his running (and he does even more running in this movie compared to the others), just like they didn't for Ford at 82 in Indy 5.

M:I7 released in 2023 and the excuse of it bombing was it went up against Barbenheimer, which I never bought.

Anyways, yeah its going to be the biggest flop of all time I predict. Basically surpassing Disney's John Carter and Lone Ranger which I believe currently holds the record.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mean the $400M budget doesn't help, but yeah franchise fatigue is right. Not to mention that Cruise is 62 and I don't think anyone wants to see him break a hip on-screen with all his running (and he does even more running in this movie compared to the others), just like they didn't for Ford at 82 in Indy 5.

M:I7 released in 2023 and the excuse of it bombing was it went up against Barbenheimer, which I never bought.

Anyways, yeah its going to be the biggest flop of all time I predict. Basically surpassing Disney's John Carter and Lone Ranger which I believe currently holds the record.

Cruise has too much control over the studios…I think that’s obvious at this point.

Needs to get pulled back

Very similar to a Disney lesson: they gave drunken Johnny depp a blank check, too much power and lost control…and were so shell shocked by the fallout that they screwed the avengers

Mistakes doubling over themselves

 

[BrianLo]

I mean the $400M budget doesn't help, but yeah franchise fatigue is right. Not to mention that Cruise is 62 and I don't think anyone wants to see him break a hip on-screen with all his running (and he does even more running in this movie compared to the others), just like they didn't for Ford at 82 in Indy 5.

M:I7 released in 2023 and the excuse of it bombing was it went up against Barbenheimer, which I never bought.

Anyways, yeah its going to be the biggest flop of all time I predict. Basically surpassing Disney's John Carter and Lone Ranger which I believe currently holds the record.

I’d reasonably drop this one to a 2.25X multiple for the opposite reasons of stitch.

A few quick calculations and I’d put the loses near John Carter, which is quite similar to The Marvels (and Snow) post inflation. That breakpoint I think is around 425M. If it makes much less than that it really will be in contention for the biggest flop of all time.

I don’t really understand what they were thinking based on the last one. I think there was some starry eyed execs looking at Top Gun Maverick.

 

[BrianLo]

‘Thunderbolts' Will Not Escape Being The Second Lowest-Earning MCU Film

Thunderbolts is great. It’s also hovering near the absolute bottom of the MCU box office, even as it passes a milestone of $300 million globally, now at $355.

www.forbes.com

This is a very odd quote from Paul, who I’d think would usually know better. Clearly I don’t trust his box office reads.

“If Thunderbolts got $20-25 million more it could have passed the first Captain America and Black Widow, but it’s just not going to happen.”

It will probably do that by the end of this weekend worldwide. Most certainly it’s going to live its life in the lower 400’s, no denial there that there is some magical tail. By there is a normal tail. Helpful to see where it lands in his list I guess, but that declaration is awfully premature.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’d reasonably drop this one to a 2.25X multiple for the opposite reasons of stitch.

A few quick calculations and I’d put the loses near John Carter, which is quite similar to The Marvels (and Snow) post inflation. That breakpoint I think is around 425M. If it makes much less than that it really will be in contention for the biggest flop of all time.

I don’t really understand what they were thinking based on the last one. I think there was some starry eyed execs looking at Top Gun Maverick.

Two things:

1. Why is everyone convinced that the “break even points” keep dropping? That’s opposite of 99.999% of every documented cost in the History of this here planet…
2. Wouldn’t these have been in production long before the release of Maverick?

Yeah…that one held in the can for a couple of extra years…but the big cash in wasn’t too long ago

 

[Disney Irish]

I’d reasonably drop this one to a 2.25X multiple for the opposite reasons of stitch.

A few quick calculations and I’d put the loses near John Carter, which is quite similar to The Marvels (and Snow) post inflation. That breakpoint I think is around 425M. If it makes much less than that it really will be in contention for the biggest flop of all time.

I don’t really understand what they were thinking based on the last one. I think there was some starry eyed execs looking at Top Gun Maverick.

At 2.25X that would have to have a huge couple of weeks and I just don't see that happening with the release calendar now heating up. Ballerina next week basically is the same audience, so that'll suck up any oxygen that M:I had going for it in my opinion. The only hope for it would be Father's day the following week, but with How to Train your Dragon, Stitch, Karate Kid, and Ballerina, I think there is too much in theaters for it to be an option.

So I guess we'll see but I'm just not optimistic for it like I am other films.

 

[Disney Irish]

Two things:

1. Why is everyone convinced that the “break even points” keep dropping? That’s opposite of 99.999% of every documents cost in the History of this here planet…
2. Wouldn’t these have been in production long before the release of Maverick?

Yeah…that one held in the can for a couple of extra years…but the big cash in wasn’t too long ago

I think what he means is the break point for biggest flop in history.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

What I find funny is that no one has mentioned that M:I8 has basically cratered and is looking to be one of the biggest flops of 2025 if not of all time compared to its budget. All of Disney's recent flops look like successes compared to it.

If it doesn't improve over the coming weeks Paramount/Skydance looks to lose between $300M-$500M depending on how much they paid for marketing.

I thought this summer would be Barbenheimer 2 - Mission: Stitch.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is a very odd quote from Paul, who I’d think would usually know better. Clearly I don’t trust his box office reads.

“If Thunderbolts got $20-25 million more it could have passed the first Captain America and Black Widow, but it’s just not going to happen.”

It will probably do that by the end of this weekend worldwide. Most certainly it’s going to live its life in the lower 400’s, no denial there that there is some magical tail. By there is a normal tail. Helpful to see where it lands in his list I guess, but that declaration is awfully premature.

I think I’m on record of saying that there’s a mass overestimation of legs in this little think tank…

Grosses after week 3-4 are most consistently not even worth noting.

There are exceptions to the rules of course

But a good bet is thunderbolts ain’t one of them.

And besides…cap 4 was a failure…so we need a better measuring stick

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think what he means is the break point for biggest flop in history.

God I hope so

Didn’t they have a combined shoot for the last two movies though?