Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

I probably could have prevented 12 posts if TP knew I didn’t use 25% but 50%.

Sorry that was not clear!

No worries, I'm sure it's not your fault. I'm likely to blame as much as anyone as I skimmed and caught up on this thread randomly for 20 or 30 minutes at a time over the long holiday weekend, while salads chilled and coals heated up and I tried to remember if the next event was Adults Only for my sanity.

If you are okay with the traditional 50% of the production budget going to marketing, instead of somehow amortizing that over some unknown number of years into the future and thus pegging the marketing costs as only 25% of production now, that works for me.

I fully get it, Disney is marketing these movies to cement them into pop culture memory banks so they get streamed and rented for years into the future. But that doesn't erase the fact they spent that marketing budget now in 2025 while the things were in actual theaters. Like studios have done since before they added sound in 1927.

That said, for the past few years on Disney's ridiculously huge, bloated budgets, I would generally cap the marketing budget at $100 Million no matter what the production budget was. For example, Snow White cost them $270 Million (that we know of so far), but I only pegged their marketing at $100 Million instead of $135 for accounting purposes. The exceptions are when reputable sources quote the marketing spend as higher than 50% of production, like Variety has done for the $140 Million spent on The Little Mermaid or the $100 Million spent on Lilo & Stitch.

 

[TP2000]

Random Thought Post-Nightcap; That little girl who they cast as Lilo is adorable! I've only seen her in the ads obviously, but she's spot on perfect for the live action remake and a total sweetheart! What a cutie!

I put a few snarky comments above about children crashing some Memorial Day events, so I feel a little guilty. But I really do like children, especially when they are safely on a movie screen and can't smear their grimy hands on things I own or interrupt my sometimes-impure dinner party conversation with their innocent thoughts and comments.

The little Hawaiian girl they cast as Lilo is truly adorable!

 

[Nevermore525]

Television and Streaming - 175-200
Home Entertainment - 125

How does that differ from streaming? It's a big number, so what is it and how is it different than the above?

TV and Streaming is just revenue from licensing to TV channels to air or various streaming services.

Home entertainment is digital/physical sales of the film. So any collector type or someone who still buys dvds or someone who buys a digital copy of the movie instead of watching it on a streaming service.

 

[DisneyHead123]

When you look at Lilo & Stitch compared to recent live action tentpoles, it's overseas box office is much weaker than it should be compared to its relatively strong domestic take thus far. Based on its holiday weekend haul in the USA of $182 Million, it should have done at least $225 Million overseas as of yesterday. On its way to an overseas total of at least $600 or $700 Million, to bolster the $500+ Million it will likely do in the USA.

Instead, it has only made $178 Million overseas so far.

Now that I think of it, I wonder if Memorial Day being a US holiday had an impact. It would have been an average two day weekend in May for most of the world, not typically prime moviegoing time.

 

[BlindChow]

Now that I think of it, I wonder if Memorial Day being a US holiday had an impact. It would have been an average two day weekend in May for most of the world, not typically prime moviegoing time.

Lilo hasn't yet been released in Japan, which is a huge market for Stitch, so that will have deflated the total somewhat.

Also, according to Deadline, Tom Cruise is still a big deal in East Asian markets, like Korea. They speculated that a big Mission Impossible opening might have limited the both the number of theaters and number of moviegoers for Lilo & Stitch, at least for this past weekend.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Lilo hasn't yet been released in Japan, which is a huge market for Stitch, so that will have deflated the total somewhat.

Also, according to Deadline, Tom Cruise is still a big deal in East Asian markets, like Korea. They speculated that a big Mission Impossible opening might have limited the both the number of theaters and number of moviegoers for Lilo & Stitch, at least for this past weekend.

Interesting. I’ll be curious to see if the international box office picks up moving forward.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I predict Mufasa-esque legs for Stitch.

There is still a hate campaign for this one. It’s all over facebook. Can’t really say why without a minor spoiler about the ending, but suffice to say it involves a lot of pearl clutching and woke accusations.

They just look for it everywhere now. Especially Disney movies. Any character who is not a cretin is now “woke” because they don’t know what that word means.

 

[Ayla]

OK, we saw it. We enjoyed it. Neither of us had seen the original, so we had no preconceived notions. We thought Lilo was adorable, and a good actress for her age. The cgi was quite good.

I had no idea Stitch’s backstory, etc.

Thought it might be a little funnier. Got choked up near the end. Definitely cared about the characters, which definitely doesn’t always happen. I’d see a sequel, and on the suggestion (insistence?) of @Tiggerish I’m going to watch the original (probably on my own.)

So, we liked it. It made me finally like Stitch after all these years. It wasn’t earth shattering, but did remind me of some fun 70’s-80’s movies “for kids” like Escape From Witch Mountain and the like.

The theater - we took our chances. It was about 2/3 full. Most of them were families with a bunch of kids. I knew that was a possibility going in.

I couldn’t believe: every single one of them all talked through the entire movie. They were half paying attention, walking around. Someone tried to shush them at one point, to no avail. I decided to draw on my “big brother brain” where you can block out the voices of little kids.

Why do people think this is acceptable? I can’t imagine going to the movies with my mother as a kid - and talking through the film. She would never allow that. It’s mind-boggling.

Side note: for whatever reason (glitch) the AMC app would not allow me to complete my purchase with points. Further, there was a convenience fee of about $4.50. Two tickets ended up costing $38 and change. That’s a lot just to see a movie. If we upgrade our Stubbs account to a higher level for $18, it would eliminate the fee. Should have done it. Was in a hurry, and was annoyed that our current membership level didn’t remove that fee anymore.

The film is definitely worth watching.

Welcome to today's parenting.

 

[BrianLo]

How do you figure? Variety says they only spent $100 Million on global marketing for Lilo & Stitch.

So far. As I’ve mentioned it’s elastic and they’ll keep spending for success. “Come out and see America’s number one movie”. I’d be surprised if this one’s marketing campaign is not elastic. Which is why I’m actually not calculating marketing when I’m running profit. It’s not a fixed variable, but a correlation that starts at 50% as a floor and accelerates towards success.

Residuals and participation are back end deals that continue to pay out as the film builds.

Tv, home entertainment also include things like video rental services. That are often a little underestimated. Think for example airlines.

As for 2030, not really, content is amortized in an accelerated fashion. A large chunk will occur in the first year(s). But a “licensing” deal is a deal. If the film unit doesn’t recover it quick enough, interest will eat away at it.

I’m not in favor of unreasonable time frames, but largely what we are getting report from Deadline on is the reasonable “first run deal” shelf life of our discussion.

 

[Nevermore525]

Lilo and Stitch will be the fastest to hit $200M Domestically so far for 2025 hitting that mark today at some point.

A Minecraft Movie got to that mark on Day 7

 

[Disney Analyst]

Hollywood tale as old as time. Studios including Disney have always released many modest success, modest losses, big bombs, and HUGE mega hits.

That's why the industry is so fickle, and sometimes like a lottery. Especially these days with an unpredictable audience that can make any film that may usually be a sleeper, into a viral hit.

 

[TP2000]

Lilo and Stitch will be the fastest to hit $200M Domestically so far for 2025 hitting that mark today at some point.

A Minecraft Movie got to that mark on Day 7

Well, true. But Minecraft didn't open on a holiday weekend. The domestic box office for Minecraft was stronger than Lilo & Stitch over its first weekend, until Memorial Day Monday hit for Lilo & Stitch which allowed it to pull ahead.

The first Monday for Minecraft was April 7th, a random Monday in spring.

I dunno know, gang. That overseas box office for Lilo & Stitch that is notably underperforming the domestic box office seems real to me. Despite Japan being the one nation that doesn't get Stitch until next week. Lilo & Stitch is going to need really strong legs domestically to make up for the weak overseas box office thus far.

We won't know more on its legs until this next weekend is past, however.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Hollywood tale as old as time. Studios including Disney have always released many modest success, modest losses, big bombs, and HUGE mega hits.

That's why the industry is so fickle, and sometimes like a lottery. Especially these days with an unpredictable audience that can make any film that may usually be a sleeper, into a viral hit.

Expect Disney's film strategy for the last 15 years is to rely entirely on tentpoles, which makes the bombs and hits more extreme and raises the threshold for profitability.

They've gotten away with this because they have 1-2 titles/year on average that make up for the rest.

 

[DKampy]

zzzua?c

Expect Disney's film strategy for the last 15 years is to rely entirely on tentpoles, which makes the bombs and hits more extreme and raises the threshold for profitability.

They've gotten away with this because they have 1-2 titles/year on average that make up for the rest.

not really when you include Searchlight snd 20th century

 

[BrianLo]

I dunno know, gang. That overseas box office for Lilo & Stitch that is notably underperforming the domestic box office seems real to me. Despite Japan being the one nation that doesn't get Stitch until next week. Lilo & Stitch is going to need really strong legs domestically to make up for the weak overseas box office thus far.

What weakness exactly is this based on? It’s currently 50/50 and domestic had a holiday.

 

[Nevermore525]

What weakness exactly is this based on? It’s currently 50/50 and domestic had a holiday.

That and the international box office is updated on a weekly basis. So not really a good gauge of any trend until the next week’s bit of box office is reported

 

[Tony the Tigger]

That and the international box office is updated on a weekly basis. So not really a good gauge of any trend until the next week’s bit of box office is reported

How did I never notice that?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

zzzua?c

not really when you include Searchlight snd 20th century

They only have Searchlight through acquisition, and it's not a key component of their business model for movies.

Disney long ago shut down/sold off their equivalents (Touchstone, Hollywood Pictures, Miramax) because they did not fit their business strategy. Searchlight could easily meet the same fate.

The focus with Fox has been franchise fare and IP, same as their own.

 

[Disney Irish]

They only have Searchlight through acquisition, and it's not a key component of their business model for movies.

Disney long ago shut down/sold off their equivalents (Touchstone, Hollywood Pictures, Miramax) because they did not fit their business strategy. Searchlight could easily meet the same fate.

The focus with Fox has been franchise fare and IP, same as their own.

Disagree, they've been using Searchlight specifically for the award plays, which IS part of their current business strategy. Those other studios you mentioned were shuttered or sold off during a different time.

 

[DKampy]

They only have Searchlight through acquisition, and it's not a key component of their business model for movies.

Disney long ago shut down/sold off their equivalents (Touchstone, Hollywood Pictures, Miramax) because they did not fit their business strategy. Searchlight could easily meet the same fate.

The focus with Fox has been franchise fare and IP, same as their own.

Disney is currently green-lighting films under Searchlight…. The acquisition that happened in 2019 does not include the films of 2025

There is also plenty of original movies under 20th century through Disney such as The Amateur, The Creator, Theater Camp, The Menu… among others