Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

If Captain America 4 just did $415 Million at the global box office, how much money will it make via streaming rentals in the next year?

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.

And how much money will Burbank get from that streaming business after it pays itself via the Disney+ cost center number, and then pays off Amazon Prime and the energy-sucking server farms for delivering that 4K stream?

The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.



The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

No way.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looking at more modern films, I’d guess at 175-200 across streaming, television and home entertainment. Not just streaming.



The service itself will make over a billion this year. We’ll start to approach the billion a quarter mark within a few years and linear like revenue perhaps in 5.

Recall that’s how much the service makes even after it pays out its content library out of its current 6B+ customer revenues.

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

 

[Stripes]

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

Where has Disney’s streaming profit growth come from so far?

Where has Netflix’s profit growth come from?

 

[erasure fan1]

I have no doubt the remake will make a lot of money, regardless of what the critics say, and regardless of how good it actually is

This is the common thread amongst most all of us. Now weather it's good or was worth it, that's where the debate will be. But similarly to lion king, this could be total dog water and still do great.

 

[Agent H]

That doesn’t seem to be the case. I haven’t read his full review (I am seeing the film next weekend and want to avoid reading too much about it beforehand), but from what I can tell, his objection to the remake is that it is a cynical attempt to cash in on the original without being nearly as good as it. That doesn’t seem a highbrow criticism to me; on the contrary, it seems entirely consistent with what most in the forum say about the remakes as a general category. I find it puzzling that the reaction to Lilo & Stitch has been so different here. Why are people so welcoming of and excited for it, in contrast to nearly all the other remakes?

I ask this as someone who is ambivalent about the remakes: I have never enjoyed any as much as the originals, though I find them interesting enough to want to see them. I am approaching Lilo & Stitch with much the same attitude.

I share your opinion on the remakes and this looks like it’s making some weird creative choices too. (no captain gantu apparently. No idea how that’s going to work.) but I’m hoping this one is successful enough to rejuvenate stitch as a brand long term. I have my fingers crossed for a proper theme park attraction somewhere down the road.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Where has Disney’s streaming profit growth come from so far?

Where has Netflix’s profit growth come from?

So unsustainable growth in subs? Or suddenly ad companies pivoting away from lower fees and partying like it’s 1995 with their wallets again?
$50 a month for Snow White?
All of the above?

 

[Stripes]

So unsustainable growth in subs? Or suddenly ad companies pivoting away from lower fees and partying like it’s 1995 with their wallets again?
$50 a month for Snow White?
All of the above?

Ask Netflix.

Disney guided a 10% operating margin for their entertainment DTC business (Disney+ and Hulu) in FY2026. They initially took a different approach (for obvious reasons), but in the end the company’s streaming business will look more and more like Netflix. It’s just a matter of time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ask Netflix.

Disney guided a 10% operating margin for their entertainment DTC business (Disney+ and Hulu) in FY2026. They initially took a different approach (for obvious reasons), but in the end the company’s streaming business will look more and more like Netflix. It’s just a matter of time.


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So “yes” then?

Bread and circuses for all

 

[Serpico Jones]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

 

[BrianLo]

I’ll play…

Where is that very large profit growth coming from?

Subscriber Price escalation and conversion to more ad based subs leading to higher ARPU - with some sub growth.

Unlike parks, they really under-launched on pricing and still seem to have a long runway with pricing escalation. If there’s one thing we all can agree on its Iger’s ability to increase prices.

Netflix is out in front on pricing and has yet to hit the ceiling for what consumers will tolerate, which is good news for Disney DTC executives.

 

[Stripes]

So “yes” then?

Bread and circuses for all

Ah, quoting Rome while missing the plot. Impressive!

 

[DKampy]

You

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

How much of that new content is watchable… I subscribed to all the major streaming services… after I cut the cord and I watch Netflix the least… that just shows how much more billions Netflix is spending than anyone else

 

[Nevermore525]

Subscriber Price escalation and conversion to more ad based subs leading to higher ARPU - with some sub growth.

Unlike parks, they really under-launched on pricing and still seem to have a long runway with pricing escalation. If there’s one thing we all can agree on its Iger’s ability to increase prices.

Netflix is out in front on pricing and has yet to hit the ceiling for what consumers will tolerate, which is good news for Disney DTC.

Domestic ARPU for D+ is currently about half of what Netflix is last I recall.

 

[Disney Irish]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

The only benefit Netflix had over D+ in terms of content was they were fed by more than one studio, which has actually ebbed and flowed over the years. But with the addition of Hulu into D+, which can and does get access to much of the same content as Netflix, they appear to be neck-in-neck in terms of access to the volume of new content.

Plus Disney has a whole back catalog of not only their own content for the last 100 years, but also the 20th Century Fox back catalog for the last 100 years. Neither of which have they really tapped into, yet.

So I think Disney actually has access to more total content than Netflix will ever have access to. But even if you don't believe all that, they don't need to be number one or even be as big as Netflix in order to be competitive. They can be a solid number two or three and still reap the same benefits.

 

[BrianLo]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

They don’t need to be. But what we don’t know is how big Netflix can be. Already it’s bigger than Disney’s peak linear profits.

If Netflix hit a ceiling in 2022 like the market thought at the time, I’d be worried about the general health of streaming. But it definitely didnt.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Combining Hulu into D+ still does not give Disney the scale needed to compete with Netflix.

 

[Agent H]

Netflix has an endless firehose of new content that Disney can’t replicate. They’ll never be as big as Netflix in streaming.

And most of it is watched and forgotten immediately. Personally I only watch like 5 maybe 6 shows on Netflix at this point. Everything else I liked has migrated over to other streaming services.

 

[Disney Irish]

Combining Hulu into D+ still does not give Disney the scale needed to compete with Netflix.

I disagree, but again go back to what I said....

They don't need to be number one or even be as big as Netflix in order to be competitive. They can be a solid number two or three and still reap the same benefits.

 

[Serpico Jones]

And most of it is watched and forgotten immediately. Personally I only watch like 5 maybe 6 shows at Netflix at this point. Everything else I liked has migrated over to other streaming services.

Quality doesn’t really matter. NCIS and The Walking Dead were the highest rated scripted shows ten years ago on television and both are mediocre at best.