Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

FYI, Deadline just updated their prediction, now saying it'll be a 53% drop which again is respectable for most movies including MCU movies, this also falls inline with other predictions I've seen and what I figured as the totals by Sunday -

"Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is currently playing a bit ahead of Shang-Chi’s second weekend with $9 million Friday and a projected weekend around $35M, off 53% from its opening last week. That will get the Florence Pugh-Wyatt Russell-Sebastian Stan Marvel ensemble past $130M by Sunday."

https://deadline.com/2025/05/box-office-thunderbolts-sinners-minecraft-1236391477/[/UR

http://Yeah… what you said…😏

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

FYI, Deadline just updated their prediction, now saying it'll be a 53% drop which again is respectable for most movies including MCU movies, this also falls inline with other predictions I've seen and what I figured as the totals by Sunday -

"Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is currently playing a bit ahead of Shang-Chi’s second weekend with $9 million Friday and a projected weekend around $35M, off 53% from its opening last week. That will get the Florence Pugh-Wyatt Russell-Sebastian Stan Marvel ensemble past $130M by Sunday."

‘Thunderbolts*’ Simmers $33M 2nd Frame; ‘Sinners’ Strong $21M 4th Weekend; Making Sense Of Single Digit Bows ‘Clown’, ‘Shadow Force’ & ‘Fight Or Flight’ – Box Office Update

Disney Marvel's 'Thunderbolts*' Will Win Second Weekend With $30M. 'Sinners' Crossing $200M, 'Minecraft Movie' crosses $401M.

deadline.com

Well since it started out so low…53% is kinda big deal

Let me know if you run out of lipstick

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deadline has already updated the article to at least 35 million figuring on the outcome of Fridays grosses thus far…. Which if that happens…. It will be 53%…. But either way I would not call the weekend till at least Sunday

It already has been holding better on the weekdays then films like Qunantummania, Shang-chi, and Brave New World…. I suspect The only reason the later opened higher was because of the holiday weekend

So a lesser degree of bad?

Got it. Who’da thunk that Shang chi would be the new “measuring stick” for all marvel, ehh?

Didn’t Captain marvel make like a billion?

 

[Disney Irish]

Well since it started out so low…53% is kinda big deal

Big deal in a positive way, yes I agree.

The point is that if this pacing continues it'll get to $400M+ range.

 

[Disney Irish]

Didn’t Captain marvel make like a billion?

Didn't that happen pre-2019? Got any better jokes?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Big deal in a positive way, yes I agree.

The point is that if this pacing continues it'll get to $400M+ range.

Way too much calcium in that cranium

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Didn't that happen pre-2019? Got any better jokes?

In 2019…actually

What’s your point? That marvel has fallen off a cliff? Not a stretch to make that one, big guy

 

[Disney Irish]

In 2019…actually

What’s your point? That marvel has fallen off a cliff? Not a stretch to make that one, big guy

Point is that you're still trying to compare post-pandemic movies to pre-pandemic movies. Something as has been discussed many times isn't wise to do. (BTW, I meant pre-2020 when I said pre-2019)

But when have I ever claimed that the MCU hasn't underperformed post-pandemic, never have. I have agreed lots of times that the MCU is not up to pre-pandemic levels. And honestly outside of a few exceptions I don't expect it to be. The heights of Endgame is a lighting in a bottle moment, it'll likely never get back to that heights again anytime soon, until maybe we get a X-MenVsAvengers level movie.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Point is that you're still trying to compare post-pandemic movies to pre-pandemic movies. Something as has been discussed many times isn't wise to do. (BTW, I meant pre-2020 when I said pre-2019)

But when have I ever claimed that the MCU hasn't underperformed post-pandemic, never have. I have agreed lots of times that the MCU is not up to pre-pandemic levels. And honestly outside of a few exceptions I don't expect it to be. The heights of Endgame is a lighting in a bottle moment, it'll likely never get back to that heights again anytime soon, until maybe we get a X-MenVsAvengers level movie.

Haven’t quite heard that excuse (today) yet…must be a day ending in “y”

 

[Disney Irish]

Haven’t quite heard that excuse (today) yet

Dude, listen.... Do I want every MCU movie to do $1B+ like the several that were the run up to Endgame, YES 100% Absolutely. But do I expect that to be the case, especially post-pandemic? No of course not. I've reset my expectations as I know its hard to get to those levels even during the best times and even harder in the current market space. And I can even acknowledge the drop off in quality that many saw with Phases 4/5, even if I didn't agree with them.

So you can call it an excuse, I call it resetting my expectations based on the reality of where the marketplace is right now. As a whole, outside of maybe Stitch, I see very few other movies for 2025 hitting $1B+. Its hard to hit that threshold now, the audiences just aren't there in most cases. And if personal finances become even more constrained as many are expecting the rest of the year and into next, I don't see that changing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Dude, listen.... Do I want every MCU movie to do $1B+ like the several that were the run up to Endgame, YES 100% Absolutely. But do I expect that to be the case, especially post-pandemic? No of course not. I've reset my expectations as I know its hard to get to those levels even during the best times and even harder in the current market space. And I can even acknowledge the drop off in quality that many saw with Phases 4/5, even if I didn't agree with them.

So you can call it an excuse, I call it resetting my expectations based on the reality of where the marketplace is right now. As a whole, outside of maybe Stitch, I see very few other movies for 2025 hitting $1B+. Its hard to hit that threshold now, the audiences just aren't there in most cases. And if personal finances become even more constrained as many are expecting the rest of the year and into next, I don't see that changing.

I just missed the part where Disney made an official announcement that MCU pics aren’t expected to clear budgets anymore?

Is it on youtube?

 

[Disney Irish]

I just missed the part where Disney made an official announcement that MCU pics aren’t expected to clear budgets anymore?

Is it on youtube?

And where is the announcement that they officially expected any particular box office return on any movie MCU or otherwise? Guess I missed that presser.

 

[TsWade2]

BRING BACK HAND-DRAWN ANIMATION!

Seriously, it’s so much more charming than computer animation (which I know wasn’t the point of your post, but I hope you’ll forgive me).

I wish to support you, but forget it! Disney is too ashamed of their hand drawn legacy. And Bob Iger hates hand drawn animation like Michael Eisner did.

 

[Disney Irish]

I wish to support you, but forget it! Disney is too ashamed of their hand drawn legacy. And Bob Iger hates hand drawn animation like Michael Eisner did.

Disney isn't ashamed of hand drawn animation or its legacy within the company, that is just ridiculous. Its a business, and from the business standpoint they just don't feel its worth the investment to rebuild an entire division around that type of animation as they don't think they can get a good enough return on that investment.

Trust me if Disney knew they could milk Billions out of a new hand drawn animated feature they would do it immediately.

 

[MrPromey]

I think the New Avengers is a clever reveal in the movie itself, but I feel renaming the movie in the marketing after one week will just confuse people more than anything else. In fact, it might turn people against the movie as they will see a bunch of D-list characters and say "NOT MY AVENGERS!!"


Now to be fair, I think the movie does a terrific job of developing the characters and making you really like them. I was a bit indifferent the Black Widow movie and didn't care for The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (the two MCU properties Thunderbolts most directly follows up on with the inclusion of Yelena, Red Guardian, Valentina and John Walker). And Ghost left no impression on me in Ant-man and the Wasp. So I wasn't at all hyped to see these characters when this movie was announced, and I'm sure most people felt similarly.

Yet, by the time Thunderbolts ended, I had grown to love the characters as the movie did a fantastic job fleshing them out. So by the time the movie revealed these characters are the "New Avengers" (as the marketing is now spoiling), I was on board, and I am now looking forward to see what happens next with them. But the casual moviegoer who hasn't seen the movie yet will likely scoff at the idea of these guys becoming the next Avengers team, as they only know the characters from how they were depicted their less well received movies/TV shows.

It was such a clever reveal at the end and the closing credits where it shows news headlines including "NOT MY AVENGERS!" as happening in-world was such a funny and smart acknowledgement of why the movie was named the way it was to begin with as it pertains to fans. It really hit in the end. I know the "secret" was always going to get out quickly but I don't think the title (as-is with asterisk) should ever have been changed.

 

[MrPromey]

Is everyone on vacation?

Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.

I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.

We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.

So you still haven't seen it?

It's a shame they spoiled the reveal for you ahead of time, then. :/

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I wish to support you, but forget it! Disney is too ashamed of their hand drawn legacy. And Bob Iger hates hand drawn animation like Michael Eisner did.

What in the world are you talking about?

It’s best to couch wild speculation with, “In my opinion…” or “I wonder if…”

So you still haven't seen it?

It's a shame they spoiled the reveal for you ahead of time, then. :/

Ah, well.

I still want to see if their marketing changes.

 

[TP2000]

I wish to support you, but forget it! Disney is too ashamed of their hand drawn legacy.

The kids call it "Problematic" now. Which made me laugh when I had my nephews and their wives explain that word to me a few summers ago at the beach one day, because it's really quite a damning concept with a flaccid, flimsy name.

But for whatever reason, our betters in the faculty lounge gave that new concept the tepid name of "Problematic".

I would have called it something like "Horrifically Damned", or maybe "Toxic Hatred For Stupids".

 

[Agent H]

The kids call it "Problematic" now. Which made me laugh when I had my nephews and their wives explain that word to me a few summers ago at the beach one day, because it's really quite a damning concept with a flaccid, flimsy name.

But for whatever reason, our betters in the faculty lounge gave that new concept the tepid name of "Problematic".

I would have called it something like "Horrifically Damned", or maybe "Toxic Hatred For Stupids".

The kids call 2d animation “problematic” now? What? I don’t even feel strongly either way on the 2d vs. 3d debate but that makes no sense.

 

[Phroobar]

The kids call 2d animation “problematic” now? What? I don’t even feel strongly either way on the 2d vs. 3d debate but that makes no sense.

I always thought 1d animation was problematic. Who wants to watch a bunch of horizontal lines?