Disney Irish
Premium Member
When posters say they “don’t understand” in response to one of your posts it’s usually because your post is some cryptic word salad.
Post a bit clearer and posters would say they “don’t understand” a bit less.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Post a bit clearer and posters would say they “don’t understand” a bit less.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?
Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.
Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...
Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)
2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss
How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.
The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet
The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.
thenumbers.com
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Disney Irish
Premium Member
Correct
That is still the unknown right now, we can check back in a couple weeks and see where its at.
You're still over inflating the totals there because you still haven't halved the marketing as has been told to you before.Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...
Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)
2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss
How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.
View attachment 857284
The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet
The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.
Using half the marketing but still using your splits -
Cap4 is ~$14M loss which is in the realm of breakeven/profitability depending on exact figures for theatrical. For sure will be profitable in post-theatrical.
Amateur is ~$33M loss and still bringing in money so chipping away at that, possible to hit breakeven/profitability by the end of its run, again depending on exact figures. And will most likely be profitable post-theatrical.
Snow White is ~$238M loss, and this I believe will be the one for sure black eye on 2025.
So that would be a ~$285M loss (if you take these at face value) which is $100M less than what you calculated due to your over inflating the marketing. As most here expect that Stitch will wipe away any losses this is won't likely even be a footnote by the end of the year.
WorldExplorer
Well-Known Member
The name change thing they're doing with Thunderbolts is pretty cool. Very unique marketing tactic and if I was invested in Marvel at any point I could see it making me feel like these people will be important and I should show up for this one.
I'm surprised by how many people are overlooking the asterisk that's been there this whole time (and some other marketing that's clearly worded to fit both titles) and think it's a desperation thing, though.
I hope it works out for them; I'm sure interesting marketing risks will be completely off the table if it doesn't.
I'm surprised by how many people are overlooking the asterisk that's been there this whole time (and some other marketing that's clearly worded to fit both titles) and think it's a desperation thing, though.
I hope it works out for them; I'm sure interesting marketing risks will be completely off the table if it doesn't.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Should get more clarity with the investor call…tomorrow?
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
If we can believe Google:
In 2024, the Walt Disney Company generated a revenue of nearly 34.2 billion U.S. dollars with its parks, and experiences, an increase of around 4.9 percent from the year before.
What will 2025 be, who knows?
I suspect in 2025, WDW revenue will drop but the rest of its parks, and experiences may make up for WDW?
Lets see what happens.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The point is: the margin is Getting tight…
So?
That should NEVER happen without a major recession. It’s inexcusable
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
They’re gonna twist the figures every which way they can…but it should be good theater, nonetheless
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I can list many, many things Disney did to my beloved WDW which I am totally against. I suspect we agree on many.
But.
I cant speak for margins, we know selling alcohol and LLs are very high margins to mention two, but overall revenues are up, so they are getting more money from less people. Disney can spin this as "In response to guests demands"
Tomorrow is the Q2 earnings call. If Iger can spin things to again sound OK he will have done his job:
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The runway on that is not infinite
Losses will cancel out price hikes on this trajectory
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I look forward to tomorrows call. Lets see what Iger's spinfest comes up with.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
My guess is they’ll bury the lead…just harp on Dcl
The next quarter after a dead early summer will be more tough
Magenta Panther
Well-Known Member
It's hard to predict how well or badly this flick will do, but the CGI animation in it looks horrible. Especially Pleakley. Nightmare fuel.I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?
Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.
Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...
Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)
2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss
How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.
View attachment 857284
The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet
The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Agent H
Well-Known Member
It’s against forum rules to insult other posters.
brideck
Well-Known Member
Just to get ahead of how TP might confusingly frame it, I think we should expect to see Snow White's theaters actually go back up a bit this weekend. It looks like it's entering the 2nd-run pricing phase of its release -- went from just 1 AMC near me last weekend back to all 6. I would also not expect that to make too significant of an impact in its weekend take.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
Is everyone on vacation? 
Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.
I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.
We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.
Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.
I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.
We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
‘Lilo & Stitch’ Presales Ahead Of ‘A Minecraft Movie’; Best First Day For PG Title YTD
Fandango reports that the live-action Lilo & Stitch movie posted the best first-day PG-rated ticket presales year to date ahead of its May 23 release.
deadline.com
WDW is an excellent trade off to missing a movie weekIs everyone on vacation?
Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.
I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.
We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Tony, would you guess Thunderbolts* stops around $201m worldwide?Is everyone on vacation?
Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.
I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.
We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.