Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Also just so we're clear for the record so far for 2025 Disney has had one bomb, one so so film, and one still in theaters looking like it may do ok. This is all before Thunderbolts releases today.

I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?

Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.

Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)

2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss

How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?

Correct

Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.

That is still the unknown right now, we can check back in a couple weeks and see where its at.

Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)

2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss

How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.

View attachment 857284

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

You're still over inflating the totals there because you still haven't halved the marketing as has been told to you before.

Using half the marketing but still using your splits -

Cap4 is ~$14M loss which is in the realm of breakeven/profitability depending on exact figures for theatrical. For sure will be profitable in post-theatrical.

Amateur is ~$33M loss and still bringing in money so chipping away at that, possible to hit breakeven/profitability by the end of its run, again depending on exact figures. And will most likely be profitable post-theatrical.

Snow White is ~$238M loss, and this I believe will be the one for sure black eye on 2025.

So that would be a ~$285M loss (if you take these at face value) which is $100M less than what you calculated due to your over inflating the marketing. As most here expect that Stitch will wipe away any losses this is won't likely even be a footnote by the end of the year.

 

[WorldExplorer]

The name change thing they're doing with Thunderbolts is pretty cool. Very unique marketing tactic and if I was invested in Marvel at any point I could see it making me feel like these people will be important and I should show up for this one.

I'm surprised by how many people are overlooking the asterisk that's been there this whole time (and some other marketing that's clearly worded to fit both titles) and think it's a desperation thing, though.

I hope it works out for them; I'm sure interesting marketing risks will be completely off the table if it doesn't.

 

[Tha Realest]

You do understand their attendance and revenues are falling, right?

Should get more clarity with the investor call…tomorrow?

 

[Disstevefan1]

You do understand their attendance and revenues are falling, right?

If we can believe Google:

In 2024, the Walt Disney Company generated a revenue of nearly 34.2 billion U.S. dollars with its parks, and experiences, an increase of around 4.9 percent from the year before.
What will 2025 be, who knows?

I suspect in 2025, WDW revenue will drop but the rest of its parks, and experiences may make up for WDW?

Lets see what happens.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If we can believe Google:

In 2024, the Walt Disney Company generated a revenue of nearly 34.2 billion U.S. dollars with its parks, and experiences, an increase of around 4.9 percent from the year before.
What will 2025 be, who knows?

I suspect in 2025, WDW revenue will drop but the rest of its parks, and experiences may make up for WDW?

Lets see what happens.

The point is: the margin is Getting tight…

So?

That should NEVER happen without a major recession. It’s inexcusable

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Should get more clarity with the investor call…tomorrow?

They’re gonna twist the figures every which way they can…but it should be good theater, nonetheless

 

[Disstevefan1]

The point is: the margin is Getting tight…

So?

That should NEVER happen without a major recession. It’s inexcusable

I can list many, many things Disney did to my beloved WDW which I am totally against. I suspect we agree on many.

But.

I cant speak for margins, we know selling alcohol and LLs are very high margins to mention two, but overall revenues are up, so they are getting more money from less people. Disney can spin this as "In response to guests demands"

Tomorrow is the Q2 earnings call. If Iger can spin things to again sound OK he will have done his job:

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can list many, many things Disney did to my beloved WDW which I am totally against. I suspect we agree on many.

But.

I cant speak for margins, we know selling alcohol and LLs are very high margins to mention two, but overall revenues are up, so they are getting more money from less people. Disney can spin this as "In response to guests needs"

Tomorrow is the Q2 earnings call. If Iger can spin things to again sound OK he will have done his job:
View attachment 857315

The runway on that is not infinite

Losses will cancel out price hikes on this trajectory

 

[Disstevefan1]

The runway on that is not infinite

Losses will cancel out price hikes on this trajectory

I look forward to tomorrows call. Lets see what Iger's spinfest comes up with.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I look forward to tomorrows call. Lets see what Iger's spinfest comes up with.

My guess is they’ll bury the lead…just harp on Dcl

The next quarter after a dead early summer will be more tough

 

[Magenta Panther]

I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?

Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.

Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)

2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss

How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.

View attachment 857284

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

It's hard to predict how well or badly this flick will do, but the CGI animation in it looks horrible. Especially Pleakley. Nightmare fuel.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

It's hard to predict how well or badly this flick will do, but the CGI animation in it looks horrible. Especially Pleakley. Nightmare fuel.

 

[Agent H]

It's hard to predict how well or badly this flick will do, but the CGI animation in it looks horrible. Especially Pleakley. Nightmare fuel.

It’s against forum rules to insult other posters.

 

[brideck]

Just to get ahead of how TP might confusingly frame it, I think we should expect to see Snow White's theaters actually go back up a bit this weekend. It looks like it's entering the 2nd-run pricing phase of its release -- went from just 1 AMC near me last weekend back to all 6. I would also not expect that to make too significant of an impact in its weekend take.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Is everyone on vacation?

Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.

I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.

We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.

 

[BrianLo]

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Presales Ahead Of ‘A Minecraft Movie’; Best First Day For PG Title YTD

Fandango reports that the live-action Lilo & Stitch movie posted the best first-day PG-rated ticket presales year to date ahead of its May 23 release.

deadline.com

 

[DKampy]

Is everyone on vacation?

Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.

I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.

We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.

WDW is an excellent trade off to missing a movie week

 

[Phroobar]

Is everyone on vacation?

Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.

I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.

We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.

Tony, would you guess Thunderbolts* stops around $201m worldwide?

 

[Disney Irish]

Is everyone on vacation?

Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.

I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.

We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.

Its the lull before the summer season, not much going on around here until the 23rd when Stitch comes ripping onto the scene.