Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Phroobar]

Is everyone on vacation?

Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.

I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.

We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.

Tony, would you guess Thunderbolts* stops around $201m worldwide?

 

[Disney Irish]

Is everyone on vacation?

Thundervengers could hit $100m domestic tonight, possibly $200m worldwide.

I’m not seeing anything about the “big reveal” other than here. I thought if they played that up, it might boost interest. Maybe they’re holding their fire for the moment.

We just got back from WDW and are heading to Atlanta on Sunday, so we’re missing our usual movie days (Monday Tuesday) two weeks in a row. Not sure when we can catch it.

Its the lull before the summer season, not much going on around here until the 23rd when Stitch comes ripping onto the scene.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Woah…a 60% second weekend drop??

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/20/ef/07/20ef07f361063277c58146322eb6880f.gif

On to stitch

 

[Animaniac93-98]

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Presales Ahead Of ‘A Minecraft Movie’; Best First Day For PG Title YTD

Fandango reports that the live-action Lilo & Stitch movie posted the best first-day PG-rated ticket presales year to date ahead of its May 23 release.

deadline.com

Stitch is going to really benefit from being the first big family release of the summer.

Both for not directly competing with anything else, and for having the whole summer to be in theaters

 

[Disney Irish]

Woah…a 60% second weekend drop??

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/20/ef/07/20ef07f361063277c58146322eb6880f.gif

On to stitch

I'm not sure where you are getting 60%, most predictions I've seen are a 50% drop.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not sure where you are getting 60%, most predictions I've seen are a 50% drop.

Deadline said $30…which would be 59%

Now it’s a ballpark guess…but it’s just as likely that ends up at like $27-28ish than not. Could be $35?

Bomb nonetheless. The drop is sufficiently big enough to seal it. Won’t recoup and way below any reasonable idea of what Disney expects from marvel releases. They might had well have the green goblin put it into a pumpkin and toss it

But way to go ahead and dispute it…cause we know it’s gotta be WWI trench warfare on everything…

 

[Disney Irish]

Deadline said $30…which would be 59%

Now it’s a ballpark guess…but it’s just as likely that ends up at like $27-28ish than not. Could be $35?

Bomb nonetheless. The drop is sufficiently big enough to seal it. Won’t recoup and way below any reasonable idea of what Disney expects from marvel releases. They might had well have the green goblin put it into a pumpkin and toss it

But way to go ahead and dispute it…cause we know it’s gotta be WWI trench warfare on everything…

Without any reference and you just randomly saying "60% drop", it hard not to question where you got it from because for all I know you got it from some Reddit, hence why I asked. Also its not warfare, its just discussion, so stop with that.

Now Deadline saying it, I checked and they actually said "60% or less" which means it could be less of a drop than that, is interesting. Most prediction sites, as I mentioned, have it at 50-55% drop. Which is actually respectable for most films.

So we'll see where the numbers end up by Sunday.

 

[DKampy]

Deadline said $30…which would be 59%

Now it’s a ballpark guess…but it’s just as likely that ends up at like $27-28ish than not. Could be $35?

Bomb nonetheless. The drop is sufficiently big enough to seal it. Won’t recoup and way below any reasonable idea of what Disney expects from marvel releases. They might had well have the green goblin put it into a pumpkin and toss it

But way to go ahead and dispute it…cause we know it’s gotta be WWI trench warfare on everything…

The Deadline article said a bare minimum of 30…. But added a + speculating it could be more…. Let’s wait to see how the weekend plays out before declaring flops

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Tony, would you guess Thunderbolts* stops around $201m worldwide?

Nope.*

*Unless the rest of the revenue is tallied as The New Avengers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The Deadline article said a bare minimum of 30…. But added a + speculating it could be more…. Let’s wait to see how the weekend plays out before declaring flops

Doesn’t matter…it won’t get close

But we can wait till Sunday if it floats your boat. I think to prevent the constant bickering and “interpretation”…we should just move on mentally.

Hence the “on to stitch”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tony, would you guess Thunderbolts* stops around $201m worldwide?

Nope.*

*Unless the rest of the revenue is tallied as The New Avengers.

$350? Just a guess

A red number on a ledger somewhere down the road…in the end.

 

[TP2000]

Is everyone on vacation?

Not quite, but I imagine most of us are getting close to it. I know I am! I've recently invested modestly in "packing cubes", which are my new enthusiasm as I prepare for this summer's travels. How did I do it all these years without packing cubes?!?

In the meantime, here's how Thursday's preview box office looks going in to the weekend. Not much new for Thunderbolts to worry about, and I don't even want to ask what "Clown In A Cornfield" might be. With it's large $180 Million budget, Thunderbolts needs to have a very strong hold this second weekend in order to stay on a break even trajectory.

Just to get ahead of how TP might confusingly frame it, I think we should expect to see Snow White's theaters actually go back up a bit this weekend.

Don't worry, I've received that note and am absorbing it emotionally and productively. Feedback is a gift!

As such, I've just spoken with Mr. Johnson in the TP2000 Global Command Center, and he's going to have Kurt re-calibrate our expectations for Theater Counts, particularly in the Midwest and Upper South regions, on Rachel Zegler's Snow White. Kurt's a whiz at that stuff, and then no one will be confused and frame it all wrong. We're ready to dial it all the way up to 750 theaters if need be. No confusion, no frazzled nerves; just calm re-calibration. Kurt's on it!

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday May 8, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday May 8, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Deadline said $30…which would be 59%

Now it’s a ballpark guess…but it’s just as likely that ends up at like $27-28ish than not. Could be $35?

Bomb nonetheless. The drop is sufficiently big enough to seal it. Won’t recoup and way below any reasonable idea of what Disney expects from marvel releases. They might had well have the green goblin put it into a pumpkin and toss it

But way to go ahead and dispute it…cause we know it’s gotta be WWI trench warfare on everything…

FYI, Deadline just updated their prediction, now saying it'll be a 53% drop which again is respectable for most movies including MCU movies, this also falls inline with other predictions I've seen and what I figured as the totals by Sunday -

"Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is currently playing a bit ahead of Shang-Chi’s second weekend with $9 million Friday and a projected weekend around $35M, off 53% from its opening last week. That will get the Florence Pugh-Wyatt Russell-Sebastian Stan Marvel ensemble past $130M by Sunday."

‘Thunderbolts*’ Simmers $33M 2nd Frame; ‘Sinners’ Strong $21M 4th Weekend; Making Sense Of Single Digit Bows ‘Clown’, ‘Shadow Force’ & ‘Fight Or Flight’ – Box Office Update

Disney Marvel's 'Thunderbolts*' Will Win Second Weekend With $30M. 'Sinners' Crossing $200M, 'Minecraft Movie' crosses $401M.

deadline.com

 

[DKampy]

Doesn’t matter…it won’t get close

But we can wait till Sunday if it floats your boat. I think to prevent the constant bickering and “interpretation”…we should just move on mentally.

Hence the “on to stitch”

Deadline has already updated the article to at least 35 million figuring on the outcome of Fridays grosses thus far…. Which if that happens…. It will be 53%…. But either way I would not call the weekend till at least Sunday

It already has been holding better on the weekdays then films like Qunantummania, Shang-chi, and Brave New World…. I suspect The only reason the later opened higher was because of the holiday weekend

 

[DKampy]

FYI, Deadline just updated their prediction, now saying it'll be a 53% drop which again is respectable for most movies including MCU movies, this also falls inline with other predictions I've seen and what I figured as the totals by Sunday -

"Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is currently playing a bit ahead of Shang-Chi’s second weekend with $9 million Friday and a projected weekend around $35M, off 53% from its opening last week. That will get the Florence Pugh-Wyatt Russell-Sebastian Stan Marvel ensemble past $130M by Sunday."

https://deadline.com/2025/05/box-office-thunderbolts-sinners-minecraft-1236391477/[/UR

http://Yeah… what you said…😏

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

FYI, Deadline just updated their prediction, now saying it'll be a 53% drop which again is respectable for most movies including MCU movies, this also falls inline with other predictions I've seen and what I figured as the totals by Sunday -

"Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is currently playing a bit ahead of Shang-Chi’s second weekend with $9 million Friday and a projected weekend around $35M, off 53% from its opening last week. That will get the Florence Pugh-Wyatt Russell-Sebastian Stan Marvel ensemble past $130M by Sunday."

‘Thunderbolts*’ Simmers $33M 2nd Frame; ‘Sinners’ Strong $21M 4th Weekend; Making Sense Of Single Digit Bows ‘Clown’, ‘Shadow Force’ & ‘Fight Or Flight’ – Box Office Update

Disney Marvel's 'Thunderbolts*' Will Win Second Weekend With $30M. 'Sinners' Crossing $200M, 'Minecraft Movie' crosses $401M.

deadline.com

Well since it started out so low…53% is kinda big deal

Let me know if you run out of lipstick

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deadline has already updated the article to at least 35 million figuring on the outcome of Fridays grosses thus far…. Which if that happens…. It will be 53%…. But either way I would not call the weekend till at least Sunday

It already has been holding better on the weekdays then films like Qunantummania, Shang-chi, and Brave New World…. I suspect The only reason the later opened higher was because of the holiday weekend

So a lesser degree of bad?

Got it. Who’da thunk that Shang chi would be the new “measuring stick” for all marvel, ehh?

Didn’t Captain marvel make like a billion?

 

[Disney Irish]

Well since it started out so low…53% is kinda big deal

Big deal in a positive way, yes I agree.

The point is that if this pacing continues it'll get to $400M+ range.

 

[Disney Irish]

Didn’t Captain marvel make like a billion?

Didn't that happen pre-2019? Got any better jokes?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Big deal in a positive way, yes I agree.

The point is that if this pacing continues it'll get to $400M+ range.

Way too much calcium in that cranium