Disney Irish
Premium Member
I'm not sure where you are getting 60%, most predictions I've seen are a 50% drop.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Deadline said $30…which would be 59%
Now it’s a ballpark guess…but it’s just as likely that ends up at like $27-28ish than not. Could be $35?
Bomb nonetheless. The drop is sufficiently big enough to seal it. Won’t recoup and way below any reasonable idea of what Disney expects from marvel releases. They might had well have the green goblin put it into a pumpkin and toss it
But way to go ahead and dispute it…cause we know it’s gotta be WWI trench warfare on everything…
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Without any reference and you just randomly saying "60% drop", it hard not to question where you got it from because for all I know you got it from some Reddit, hence why I asked. Also its not warfare, its just discussion, so stop with that.
Now Deadline saying it, I checked and they actually said "60% or less" which means it could be less of a drop than that, is interesting. Most prediction sites, as I mentioned, have it at 50-55% drop. Which is actually respectable for most films.
So we'll see where the numbers end up by Sunday.
The Deadline article said a bare minimum of 30…. But added a + speculating it could be more…. Let’s wait to see how the weekend plays out before declaring flops
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Doesn’t matter…it won’t get close
But we can wait till Sunday if it floats your boat. I think to prevent the constant bickering and “interpretation”…we should just move on mentally.
Hence the “on to stitch”
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
$350? Just a guessNope.*
*Unless the rest of the revenue is tallied as The New Avengers.
A red number on a ledger somewhere down the road…in the end.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Is everyone on vacation?
Not quite, but I imagine most of us are getting close to it. I know I am! I've recently invested modestly in "packing cubes", which are my new enthusiasm as I prepare for this summer's travels. How did I do it all these years without packing cubes?!?
In the meantime, here's how Thursday's preview box office looks going in to the weekend. Not much new for Thunderbolts to worry about, and I don't even want to ask what "Clown In A Cornfield" might be. With it's large $180 Million budget, Thunderbolts needs to have a very strong hold this second weekend in order to stay on a break even trajectory.
Don't worry, I've received that note and am absorbing it emotionally and productively. Feedback is a gift!
As such, I've just spoken with Mr. Johnson in the TP2000 Global Command Center, and he's going to have Kurt re-calibrate our expectations for Theater Counts, particularly in the Midwest and Upper South regions, on Rachel Zegler's Snow White. Kurt's a whiz at that stuff, and then no one will be confused and frame it all wrong. We're ready to dial it all the way up to 750 theaters if need be. No confusion, no frazzled nerves; just calm re-calibration. Kurt's on it!
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The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday May 8, 2025
Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday May 8, 2025
thenumbers.com
Disney Irish
Premium Member
FYI, Deadline just updated their prediction, now saying it'll be a 53% drop which again is respectable for most movies including MCU movies, this also falls inline with other predictions I've seen and what I figured as the totals by Sunday -
"Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is currently playing a bit ahead of Shang-Chi’s second weekend with $9 million Friday and a projected weekend around $35M, off 53% from its opening last week. That will get the Florence Pugh-Wyatt Russell-Sebastian Stan Marvel ensemble past $130M by Sunday."
‘Thunderbolts*’ Simmers $33M 2nd Frame; ‘Sinners’ Strong $21M 4th Weekend; Making Sense Of Single Digit Bows ‘Clown’, ‘Shadow Force’ & ‘Fight Or Flight’ – Box Office Update
Disney Marvel's 'Thunderbolts*' Will Win Second Weekend With $30M. 'Sinners' Crossing $200M, 'Minecraft Movie' crosses $401M.
deadline.com
Deadline has already updated the article to at least 35 million figuring on the outcome of Fridays grosses thus far…. Which if that happens…. It will be 53%…. But either way I would not call the weekend till at least Sunday
It already has been holding better on the weekdays then films like Qunantummania, Shang-chi, and Brave New World…. I suspect The only reason the later opened higher was because of the holiday weekend
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
FYI, Deadline just updated their prediction, now saying it'll be a 53% drop which again is respectable for most movies including MCU movies, this also falls inline with other predictions I've seen and what I figured as the totals by Sunday -
"Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is currently playing a bit ahead of Shang-Chi’s second weekend with $9 million Friday and a projected weekend around $35M, off 53% from its opening last week. That will get the Florence Pugh-Wyatt Russell-Sebastian Stan Marvel ensemble past $130M by Sunday."
‘Thunderbolts*’ Simmers $33M 2nd Frame; ‘Sinners’ Strong $21M 4th Weekend; Making Sense Of Single Digit Bows ‘Clown’, ‘Shadow Force’ & ‘Fight Or Flight’ – Box Office Update
Disney Marvel's 'Thunderbolts*' Will Win Second Weekend With $30M. 'Sinners' Crossing $200M, 'Minecraft Movie' crosses $401M.
Well since it started out so low…53% is kinda big deal
Let me know if you run out of lipstick
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
So a lesser degree of bad?
Got it. Who’da thunk that Shang chi would be the new “measuring stick” for all marvel, ehh?
Didn’t Captain marvel make like a billion?
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Big deal in a positive way, yes I agree.
The point is that if this pacing continues it'll get to $400M+ range.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Didn't that happen pre-2019? Got any better jokes?Didn’t Captain marvel make like a billion?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Way too much calcium in that cranium
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
In 2019…actually
What’s your point? That marvel has fallen off a cliff? Not a stretch to make that one, big guy
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Point is that you're still trying to compare post-pandemic movies to pre-pandemic movies. Something as has been discussed many times isn't wise to do. (BTW, I meant pre-2020 when I said pre-2019)In 2019…actually
What’s your point? That marvel has fallen off a cliff? Not a stretch to make that one, big guy
But when have I ever claimed that the MCU hasn't underperformed post-pandemic, never have. I have agreed lots of times that the MCU is not up to pre-pandemic levels. And honestly outside of a few exceptions I don't expect it to be. The heights of Endgame is a lighting in a bottle moment, it'll likely never get back to that heights again anytime soon, until maybe we get a X-MenVsAvengers level movie.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Haven’t quite heard that excuse (today) yet…must be a day ending in “y”
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Dude, listen.... Do I want every MCU movie to do $1B+ like the several that were the run up to Endgame, YES 100% Absolutely. But do I expect that to be the case, especially post-pandemic? No of course not. I've reset my expectations as I know its hard to get to those levels even during the best times and even harder in the current market space. And I can even acknowledge the drop off in quality that many saw with Phases 4/5, even if I didn't agree with them.
So you can call it an excuse, I call it resetting my expectations based on the reality of where the marketplace is right now. As a whole, outside of maybe Stitch, I see very few other movies for 2025 hitting $1B+. Its hard to hit that threshold now, the audiences just aren't there in most cases. And if personal finances become even more constrained as many are expecting the rest of the year and into next, I don't see that changing.