Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Final numbers are in for this weekend's domestic box office. Thunderbolts was revised down from it's $76 Million opening weekend to an actual total of $74,300,608. And Snow White is still in 310 theaters.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 3, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 3, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Even if true, I believe Thunderbolts three day global box office is significantly higher then Shang-Chi. It did come in lower then Quantumania, the third installment in a successful series - just like pretty much every other Marvel debut film,

That does not look to be the case. Even unadjusted for inflation, Shang-Chi had a better opening weekend than Thunderbolts by just over $1 Million.

And adjusted for inflation (2021-2024 was brutal on the pocketbook!), Thunderbolts had a domestic opening weekend that was 88% of the domestic opening weekend for Shang-Chi.

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Phroobar]

Now that the Thunderbolts* is the New Avengers would it look bad if this movie isn't a blockbuster success? It's like New Coke vs Classic Coke.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney knows how to CUT COSTS and NOT overspend in its theme park business, especially WDW If they do spend on the theme parks, they S T R E T C H the spending over MANY YEARS on the same project!

You do understand their attendance and revenues are falling, right?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s already started but you just label whatever you don’t like to hear as “semantics.”

Semantics doesn’t mean everything that doesn’t denigrate Disney.

Nope…we got the “I don’t understand…” stuff creeping in again. It’s disingenuous and not productive. Do as I say…not as I do

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Where are you getting 74 million?

Even if true, I believe Thunderbolts three day global box office is significantly higher then Shang-Chi. It did come in lower then Quantumania, the third installment in a successful series - just like pretty much every other Marvel debut film,

It was adjusted down…and no one on earth is making the case that’s good but you.

But hey…the 36 hour back and forth snit - contrary to reality -was fun

 

[Chi84]

Nope…we got the “I don’t understand…” stuff creeping in again. It’s disingenuous and not productive. Do as I say…not as I do

I understand perfectly. What you just posted makes no sense whatsoever.

 

[Disney Irish]

Nope…we got the “I don’t understand…” stuff creeping in again. It’s disingenuous and not productive. Do as I say…not as I do

When posters say they “don’t understand” in response to one of your posts it’s usually because your post is some cryptic word salad.

Post a bit clearer and posters would say they “don’t understand” a bit less.

 

[TP2000]

Also just so we're clear for the record so far for 2025 Disney has had one bomb, one so so film, and one still in theaters looking like it may do ok. This is all before Thunderbolts releases today.

I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?

Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.

Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)

2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss

How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?

Correct

Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.

That is still the unknown right now, we can check back in a couple weeks and see where its at.

Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)

2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss

How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.

View attachment 857284

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

You're still over inflating the totals there because you still haven't halved the marketing as has been told to you before.

Using half the marketing but still using your splits -

Cap4 is ~$14M loss which is in the realm of breakeven/profitability depending on exact figures for theatrical. For sure will be profitable in post-theatrical.

Amateur is ~$33M loss and still bringing in money so chipping away at that, possible to hit breakeven/profitability by the end of its run, again depending on exact figures. And will most likely be profitable post-theatrical.

Snow White is ~$238M loss, and this I believe will be the one for sure black eye on 2025.

So that would be a ~$285M loss (if you take these at face value) which is $100M less than what you calculated due to your over inflating the marketing. As most here expect that Stitch will wipe away any losses this is won't likely even be a footnote by the end of the year.

 

[WorldExplorer]

The name change thing they're doing with Thunderbolts is pretty cool. Very unique marketing tactic and if I was invested in Marvel at any point I could see it making me feel like these people will be important and I should show up for this one.

I'm surprised by how many people are overlooking the asterisk that's been there this whole time (and some other marketing that's clearly worded to fit both titles) and think it's a desperation thing, though.

I hope it works out for them; I'm sure interesting marketing risks will be completely off the table if it doesn't.

 

[Tha Realest]

You do understand their attendance and revenues are falling, right?

Should get more clarity with the investor call…tomorrow?

 

[Disstevefan1]

You do understand their attendance and revenues are falling, right?

If we can believe Google:

In 2024, the Walt Disney Company generated a revenue of nearly 34.2 billion U.S. dollars with its parks, and experiences, an increase of around 4.9 percent from the year before.
What will 2025 be, who knows?

I suspect in 2025, WDW revenue will drop but the rest of its parks, and experiences may make up for WDW?

Lets see what happens.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If we can believe Google:

In 2024, the Walt Disney Company generated a revenue of nearly 34.2 billion U.S. dollars with its parks, and experiences, an increase of around 4.9 percent from the year before.
What will 2025 be, who knows?

I suspect in 2025, WDW revenue will drop but the rest of its parks, and experiences may make up for WDW?

Lets see what happens.

The point is: the margin is Getting tight…

So?

That should NEVER happen without a major recession. It’s inexcusable

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Should get more clarity with the investor call…tomorrow?

They’re gonna twist the figures every which way they can…but it should be good theater, nonetheless

 

[Disstevefan1]

The point is: the margin is Getting tight…

So?

That should NEVER happen without a major recession. It’s inexcusable

I can list many, many things Disney did to my beloved WDW which I am totally against. I suspect we agree on many.

But.

I cant speak for margins, we know selling alcohol and LLs are very high margins to mention two, but overall revenues are up, so they are getting more money from less people. Disney can spin this as "In response to guests demands"

Tomorrow is the Q2 earnings call. If Iger can spin things to again sound OK he will have done his job:

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can list many, many things Disney did to my beloved WDW which I am totally against. I suspect we agree on many.

But.

I cant speak for margins, we know selling alcohol and LLs are very high margins to mention two, but overall revenues are up, so they are getting more money from less people. Disney can spin this as "In response to guests needs"

Tomorrow is the Q2 earnings call. If Iger can spin things to again sound OK he will have done his job:
View attachment 857315

The runway on that is not infinite

Losses will cancel out price hikes on this trajectory

 

[Disstevefan1]

The runway on that is not infinite

Losses will cancel out price hikes on this trajectory

I look forward to tomorrows call. Lets see what Iger's spinfest comes up with.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I look forward to tomorrows call. Lets see what Iger's spinfest comes up with.

My guess is they’ll bury the lead…just harp on Dcl

The next quarter after a dead early summer will be more tough

 

[Magenta Panther]

I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?

Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.

Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...

Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)

2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss

How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.

View attachment 857284

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

thenumbers.com

It's hard to predict how well or badly this flick will do, but the CGI animation in it looks horrible. Especially Pleakley. Nightmare fuel.