Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Chi84
Premium Member
It’s already started but you just label whatever you don’t like to hear as “semantics.”Great idea…
Who’s gonna start!
Semantics doesn’t mean everything that doesn’t denigrate Disney.
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Are the international markets the same? The opening of a movie in international markets can vary from one film to the next so I can see why domestic opening weekends makes for a more straightforward comparison.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Disney knows how to CUT COSTS and NOT overspend in its theme park business, especially WDW
If they do spend on the theme parks, they S T R E T C H the spending over MANY YEARS on the same project! 
Disney Irish
Premium Member
You just described every business that uses modern accounting going back almost 100 years. Disney is no different in that regard, they just use generally accepted accounting practices (GAAP) for amortizing costs over time.Disney knows how to CUT COSTS and NOT overspend in its theme park business, especially WDW
I really wish business and economics courses were still taught in schools.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
This is silly.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
I think it makes it worst by renaming it.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
I think the New Avengers is a clever reveal in the movie itself, but I feel renaming the movie in the marketing after one week will just confuse people more than anything else. In fact, it might turn people against the movie as they will see a bunch of D-list characters and say "NOT MY AVENGERS!!"
Now to be fair, I think the movie does a terrific job of developing the characters and making you really like them. I was a bit indifferent the Black Widow movie and didn't care for The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (the two MCU properties Thunderbolts most directly follows up on with the inclusion of Yelena, Red Guardian, Valentina and John Walker). And Ghost left no impression on me in Ant-man and the Wasp. So I wasn't at all hyped to see these characters when this movie was announced, and I'm sure most people felt similarly.
Yet, by the time Thunderbolts ended, I had grown to love the characters as the movie did a fantastic job fleshing them out. So by the time the movie revealed these characters are the "New Avengers" (as the marketing is now spoiling), I was on board, and I am now looking forward to see what happens next with them. But the casual moviegoer who hasn't seen the movie yet will likely scoff at the idea of these guys becoming the next Avengers team, as they only know the characters from how they were depicted their less well received movies/TV shows.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Oh, okay. I can plug those specific Marvel movie types (first outing of a successful franchise) into the machine and see what it says.
They aren't "my" numbers. They are the numbers from the website called, conveniently, The Numbers. I only put in which movies I want to compare, and the numbers are there from the usual public disclosure sources the industry uses to track box office. Which is probably why they call themselves The Numbers.
Here's how those Franchise Starters looked at their domestic opening weekends, adjusted for inflation...
Thunderbolts did 80% of Captain America 1
Thunderbolts did 56% of Guardians of the Galaxy 1
Thunderbolts did 79% of Thor 1
Thunderbolts did 96% of Ant-Man 1
The closest analogy for Thunderbolts at this point is Ant-Man 1 in 2015. But Ant-Man performed much stronger overseas than Thunderbolts is currently doing. Almost double the domestic box office from overseas for Ant-Man! And Thunderbolts has already opened this past weekend in all overseas markets; there is no foreign country left to open in for Thunderbolts.
It would appear that Thunderbolts will struggle to reach $500 Million, much less than Ant-Man 1's inflation adjusted $696 Million global take, barring some crazy strong legs domestically and a notable surge in box office overseas in the next few weeks. '
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Final numbers are in for this weekend's domestic box office. Thunderbolts was revised down from it's $76 Million opening weekend to an actual total of $74,300,608. And Snow White is still in 310 theaters.
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thenumbers.com
The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for May 9, 2025
Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of May 9, 2025
thenumbers.com
TP2000
Well-Known Member
That does not look to be the case. Even unadjusted for inflation, Shang-Chi had a better opening weekend than Thunderbolts by just over $1 Million.
And adjusted for inflation (2021-2024 was brutal on the pocketbook!), Thunderbolts had a domestic opening weekend that was 88% of the domestic opening weekend for Shang-Chi.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) - Financial Information
Financial analysis of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.
www.the-numbers.com
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
You do understand their attendance and revenues are falling, right?Disney knows how to CUT COSTS and NOT overspend in its theme park business, especially WDW
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Nope…we got the “I don’t understand…” stuff creeping in again. It’s disingenuous and not productive. Do as I say…not as I do
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It was adjusted down…and no one on earth is making the case that’s good but you.
But hey…the 36 hour back and forth snit - contrary to reality -was fun
Chi84
Premium Member
I understand perfectly. What you just posted makes no sense whatsoever.
Agent H
Well-Known Member
This wasn’t on my bingo card for 2025.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
When posters say they “don’t understand” in response to one of your posts it’s usually because your post is some cryptic word salad.
Post a bit clearer and posters would say they “don’t understand” a bit less.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I'm going to guess that the Bomb is Snow White, the So-So is Captain America 4, and the May Do OK is The Amateur?
Plus Thunderbolts. Which underwhelmed in its opening weekend against its $180 Million production budget.
Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...
Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)
2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss
How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.
The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet
The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.
thenumbers.com
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Disney Irish
Premium Member
Correct
That is still the unknown right now, we can check back in a couple weeks and see where its at.
You're still over inflating the totals there because you still haven't halved the marketing as has been told to you before.Now that the first weekend in May is in globally, let's see how that looks at the box office...
Captain America 4: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $120, Overseas $86 = $64 Million Loss
Snow White: Production $269, Marketing $100, Domestic $52, Overseas $46 = $271 Million Loss
The Amateur: Production $60, Marketing $30, Domestic $22, Overseas $20 = $48 Million Loss
Thunderbolts: Production $180, Marketing $90, Domestic $44, Overseas $34 = ???? (Check back in June)
2025 Total Thus Far Without Thunderbolts = $383 Million Loss
How many days until Stitch arrives in theaters again?!? Some Burbank execs need to track those remaining days so they know how many refills to get on their Xanax prescription until then.
View attachment 857284
The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet
The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.
Using half the marketing but still using your splits -
Cap4 is ~$14M loss which is in the realm of breakeven/profitability depending on exact figures for theatrical. For sure will be profitable in post-theatrical.
Amateur is ~$33M loss and still bringing in money so chipping away at that, possible to hit breakeven/profitability by the end of its run, again depending on exact figures. And will most likely be profitable post-theatrical.
Snow White is ~$238M loss, and this I believe will be the one for sure black eye on 2025.
So that would be a ~$285M loss (if you take these at face value) which is $100M less than what you calculated due to your over inflating the marketing. As most here expect that Stitch will wipe away any losses this is won't likely even be a footnote by the end of the year.