Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The industry reset expectations when theaters opened back up that not every movie had to be a $1B movie or its considered a failure. Unfortunately for many, including yourself, those expectations haven't been reset when it comes to the Mouse. You still expect that every Disney movie (and no internally they aren't expecting it) has to break $1B records or its a failure.

Even this $100M opening weekend that you were touting as the bar for Thunderbolts wasn't realistic or what the industry was expecting either. If you read the headlines its actually not a bad opening weekend, its actually considered a success by post-pandemic standards. Again I question why when a non-Disney movie opens in the same range is it considered a success by many here, but when a Disney movie does its considered a failure? Seems like those expectations for the Mouse are set higher for reasons, I guess.

To be fair Disney was pretty late to change expectations also, they’ve made a bunch of movies over the last few years that had ridiculous budgets. If a studio continues to spend $250-350 million making a movie you have to assume they were expecting it to make at least $600-900 million also.

I think a huge part of the reason most of us are optimistic for Thunderbolts is it had a $180 million budget, much easier to foresee a profit when break even is roughly $450 million compared to their last movie (Snow White) that had a $270 million budget and needed roughly $675 million just to break even, or worse the last Indiana Jones movie that had a break even point around $750 million.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The industry reset expectations when theaters opened back up that not every movie had to be a $1B movie or its considered a failure. Unfortunately for many, including yourself, those expectations haven't been reset when it comes to the Mouse. You still expect that every Disney movie (and no internally they aren't expecting it) has to break $1B records or its a failure.

Even this $100M opening weekend that you were touting as the bar for Thunderbolts wasn't realistic or what the industry was expecting either. If you read the headlines its actually not a bad opening weekend, its actually considered a success by post-pandemic standards. Again I question why when a non-Disney movie opens in the same range is it considered a success by many here, but when a Disney movie does its considered a failure? Seems like those expectations for the Mouse are set higher for reasons, I guess.

But it’s not correct.

Out of curiosity…look at the worldwide box office charts from 2022-present. Actually it holds for 21 too…but there were still alot of restrictions in place.

8 billion dollar movies in 3 years? And another half a dozen with $900 +?



In fact…look at the grosses of the top 10 each year…really pretty close to what they would have gotten in 2018. Maybe a 20% hit…

DM4 and Minions getting $900 Represents an “industry shift”? More like a minor course correction.

The takeaway is the same: if it’s good…it will make money. And even bad movies like Jurassics still do what they do.

We are here talking about underachieving tentpole franchises…but continue to play this stupid game where we can’t agree on the reality of it. And the wheel continues to spin

 

[Tony the Tigger]

To be fair Disney was pretty late to change expectations also, they’ve made a bunch of movies over the last few years that had ridiculous budgets. If a studio continues to spend $250-350 million making a movie you have to assume they were expecting it to make at least $600-900 million also.

I think a huge part of the reason most of us are optimistic for Thunderbolts is it had a $180 million budget, much easier to foresee a profit when break even is roughly $450 million compared to their last movie (Snow White) that had a $270 million budget and needed roughly $675 million just to break even, or worse the last Indiana Jones movie that had a break even point around $750 million.

I still think it’s bizarre that we even know, let alone care about, the budget of a movie.

I feel like that’s above my pay grade. It has no effect on whether or not I want to see a film - which is my only job.

As for changing expectations, I think we also know most of those bigger budget ones were already in production with the old numbers.

I can also tell you from much smaller (but big to me) business experience: it can be hard to tell right away if a drop is a blip vs. a trend, and whether reacting would be overreacting. Then once you make the decision, it takes time to steer the ship.

My business fell off a small cliff nearly two years ago after a big Covid bump. Two competitors in business twice as long as I closed. From August to December, I kept thinking it wasn’t that bad. I kept spending on inventory at the same levels.

In retrospect, I should have pulled back sooner. At the time, who could be sure?

I feel they were going through this at a scale I may not even comprehend.

P.S. cutting back at key times worked, and we’re in great shape, much like Disney’s 2024.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I still think it’s bizarre that we even know, let alone care about, the budget of a movie.

I feel like that’s above my pay grade. It has no effect on whether or not I want to see a film - which is my only job.

As for changing expectations, I think we also know most of those bigger budget ones were already in production with the old numbers.

Well…should we care? Not on a “what are we gonna see this weekend?” Level. But on a macro/disney stability level…we absolutely should. They just are not making money the way they used to and it’s forcing bad management to make even worse decisions. It is on all levels we discuss.

I can also tell you from much smaller (but big to me) business experience: it can be hard to tell right away if a drop is a blip vs. a trend, and whether reacting would be overreacting. Then once you make the decision, it takes time to steer the ship.

My business fell off a small cliff nearly two years ago after a big Covid bump. Two competitors in business twice as long as I closed. From August to December, I kept thinking it wasn’t that bad. I kept spending on inventory at the same levels.

In retrospect, I should have pulled back sooner. At the time, who could be sure?

Fascinating…how are you doing now?

I feel they were going through this at a scale I may not even comprehend.

P.S. cutting back at key times worked, and we’re in great shape, much like Disney’s 2024.

It takes 5 years to make a movie…maybe not all cases - but most. Development is slow. So all their 2024 movies were in the pipe before the plague.

I think they had less all along and just had 3 movies that hit the market in the sweet spot…

Good thing too…cause the bookend years around 2024 look to be quite the disaster…still developing

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh you aren’t wrong all the time but I do like your witty deflection of when you are wrong and can’t admit it. It’s ok, it’s part of your fun acerbic charm.

It’s right on the projection number…not over it.

I didn’t say the dumb assertion or the easy disproving…I’m just the innocent bystander in the grassy knoll

You need some eyedrops or something?

 

[Disney Irish]

Well that’s a nice couple of brain cells you blew there…

But it’s not correct.

Out of curiosity…look at the worldwide box office charts from 2022-present. Actually it holds for 21 too…but there were still alot of restrictions in place.

8 billion dollar movies in 3 years? And another half a dozen with $900 +?

Really not the “altered” picture you bothered to paint in crayon.

In fact…look at the grosses of the top 10 each year…really pretty close to what they would have gotten in 2018. Maybe a 20% hit…

DM4 and Minions getting $900 Represents an “industry shift”? More like a minor course correction.

The takeaway is the same: if it’s good…it will make money. And even bad movies like Jurassics still do what they do.

We are here talking about underachieving tentpole franchises…but continue to play this stupid game where we can’t agree on the reality of it. And the wheel continues to spin

Your accuracy rate on movie opinions is well below the Mendoza line now

And once again you missed the point by thousands of miles.

I never said a movie couldn't make $1B+ post-pandemic, quite the contrary. I said expectations have been reset, ie that studios are no longer expecting their movies to make $1B+ out the gate in this box office landscape. And so your response (which wasn't even the point) was that 2022-2025 had 8 $1B+ movies? That's cute, 2019 had 9 in a single year. And so the point, was that pre-pandemic all studios were expecting all their movies would the next $1B+ movie or it was considered a failure (many were starting to talk about the $2B+ club), and that was what was being reset. Studios no longer expect their movie would do $1B+ out the gate, now most are happy if they hit $500M+ in most cases.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And once again you missed the point by thousands of miles.

I never said a movie couldn't make $1B+ post-pandemic, quite the contrary. I said expectations have been reset, ie that studios are no longer expecting their movies to make $1B+ out the gate in this box office landscape. And so your response (which wasn't even the point) was that 2022-2025 had 8 $1B+ movies? That's cute, 2019 had 9 in a single year. And so the point, was that pre-pandemic all studios were expecting all their movies would the next $1B+ movie or it was considered a failure (many were starting to talk about the $2B+ club), and that was what was being reset. Studios no longer expect their movie would do $1B+ out the gate, now most are happy if they hit $500M+ in most cases.

Disney’s goal on big releases is never “break even”…never was…never will be.

That’s not how they make money…and I’m not talking about the box office figure. Follow the profits.

There has to be an end to this nonsense (I mean…I know there isn’t…but I just play along )

We already have some of your greatest hits in this thread for years…like all movies make money on D+…and the price of masks and sannitizer doubled budgets

Now you’re in the boardroom telling me what the corps want/expect?

If you need a drink to make it all feel “ok”…I’d be happy to buy it for you

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney’s goal on big releases is never “break even”…never was…never will be.

That’s not how they make money…and I’m not talking about the box office figure. Follow the profits.

There has to be an end to this nonsense (I mean…I know there isn’t…but I just play along )

We already have some of your greatest hits in this thread for years…like all movies make money on D+…and the price of masks and sannitizer doubled budgets

Now you’re in the boardroom telling me what the corps want/expect?

If you need a drink to make it all feel “ok”…I’d be happy to buy it for you

You keep missing the point, but as always that seems to be your goal.

And yes no studio (even Disney) wants to just breakeven, but that was never the point.

 

[DKampy]

I do not understand all the Thunderbolts is a flop talk after one weekend…I would think a 70-80 opening is the norm for a film like this…. I always thought it would come to subsequent weekends with word of mouth… Which is quite high with both critics and audiences…. It is a bunch of C/D list characters who were only supporting players in other films/series…Other then Captain Marvel( which was the movie leading into Infinity War)have we ever had a first in a character’s franchise open much higher

 

[TP2000]

RIP Vancouver. RIP me.

Meanwhile, in Los Angeles....

They are celebrating any little win and bit of business coming back that they can get.

Why Los Angeles Is Becoming a Production Graveyard

As the number of movie and TV shoots approaches historic lows, insiders are lobbying for fewer restrictions to help bolster Hollywood’s place in the city it calls home.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Hollywood industry in crisis after strikes, streaming wars

Productions are down by about 40% and entertainment industry employees say they can't find work.

www.bbc.com

Trump has promised a new Hollywood ‘golden age’ – but Tinseltown is in trouble

Strikes, a pandemic and now natural disaster have battered LA’s film industry dominance

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[TP2000]

I do not understand all the Thunderbolts is a flop talk after one weekend…I would think a 70-80 opening is the norm for a film like this….

No, not really. A $76 Million domestic opening weekend is rather weak for a Marvel film like this. Thunderbolts will need really strong legs to get to breakeven after a $76 Million domestic (and similarly modest overseas) opening weekend.

The "Hey, It Could Be Worse" scenario for Thunderbolts is a gift from The Marvels, with its staggering $270 Million production budget and massive box office bomb status globally, allowed the benchmark for Marvel bombs to be set really, really low.

The most recent collection of Marvel films, plus a random pre-Covid benchmark of Thor: Ragnarok because those who know me would understand, offers up this data comparison for inflation adjusted Domestic Opening Weekends...

Thunderbolts did 85% of Captain America '25
Thunderbolts did 68% of Quantumania
Thunderbolts did 162% of The Marvels (Yay?!?)
Thunderbolts did 36% of Deadpool & Wolverine
Thunderbolts did 49% of Thor: Ragnarok

 

[Disstevefan1]

I don't think the next CEO is going to change anything regarding Marvel and Disney's tentpole strategy.

Maybe some characters or IP don't get sequels, but that's it.

I'm also skeptical of Disney pulling back on live-action remakes if Stitch is expected to do as well as it does.

If Iger is allowed to pick his successor then you are correct. It will be just another poor decision by Iger.

 

[DKampy]

No, not really. A $76 Million domestic opening weekend is rather weak for a Marvel film like this. Thunderbolts will need really strong legs to get to breakeven after a $76 Million domestic (and similarly modest overseas) opening weekend.

The "Hey, It Could Be Worse" scenario for Thunderbolts is a gift from The Marvels, with its staggering $270 Million production budget and massive box office bomb status globally, allowed the benchmark for Marvel bombs to be set really, really low.

The most recent collection of Marvel films, plus a random pre-Covid benchmark of Thor: Ragnarok because those who know me would understand, offers up this data comparison for inflation adjusted Domestic Opening Weekends...

Thunderbolts did 85% of Captain America '25
Thunderbolts did 68% of Quantumania
Thunderbolts did 162% of The Marvels (Yay?!?)
Thunderbolts did 36% of Deadpool & Wolverine
Thunderbolts did 49% of Thor: Ragnarok

View attachment 857088

You missed the part were I said the first film in a franchise within the MCU….check out what the first Captain America, GoftG, Antman, and Thor did opening weekend…, and are you sure your number are right??? 85% of Brave New World….. cap only made 10 million more

Before you bring up inflation…. I believe all studios lost a portion of the Audience post Streaming era….enough to make up the difference…. Compare a movie like Sinners to a film like Us….the formers opening weekend would have been considered a disappointment pre-pandemic

 

[The Mom]

I understand that it is difficult, if not impossible, to discuss box office numbers without getting political - I appreciate and thank those who have managed to do it - but the no politics rule still applies.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Other then Captain Marvel( which was the movie leading into Infinity War)have we ever had a first in a character’s franchise open much higher

Black Panther also, technically Deadpool too but that was Fox at the time and not part of the MCU, but for the most part I agree that Thunderbolts is in the same ballpark as other debut stories.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I understand that it is difficult, if not impossible, to discuss box office numbers without getting political - I appreciate and thank those who have managed to do it - but the no politics rule still applies.

This confuses me. What the heck does politics have to do with making good movies?

Is politics the new excuse for when something, anything does not go someone’s way???

If a movie studio ( any movie studio) makes a movie that folks want to go to the theater to see then everyone wins; the theaters, the studios, and Hollywood.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This confuses me. What the heck does politics have to do with making good movies?

Is politics the new excuse for when something, anything does not go someone’s way???

If a movie studio ( any movie studio) makes a movie that folks want to go to the theater to see then everyone wins; the theaters, the studios, and Hollywood.

Tariffs are now being applied to movies which could have major affects on production budgets and the box office, people were struggling to talk about the implications without getting into the politics behind it though.

Probably best just to leave it at that.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Before you bring up inflation…. I believe all studios lost a portion of the Audience post Streaming era….enough to make up the difference…. Compare a movie like Sinners to a film like Us….the formers opening weekend would have been considered a disappointment pre-pandemic

Would $48 million have been considered bad for an original R-rated horror movie?

Get Out had a $33 million opening. Us was an all-time high that benefited from Peele's established reputation after it.

First Conjuring movie had a $42 million opening in 2013.

I do not understand all the Thunderbolts is a flop talk after one weekend…I would think a 70-80 opening is the norm for a film like this….

It's almost exactly what Shang-Chi did back in 2021, and a little higher than Eternals.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Tariffs are now being applied to movies which could have major affects on production budgets and the box office, people were struggling to talk about the implications without getting into the politics behind it though.

Probably best just to leave it at that.

In the old days when a studio released a movie that didn't sell tickets it was just a bad movie that didn't sell tickets. Oh well.

 

[Casper Gutman]

In the old days when a studio released a movie that didn't sell tickets it was just a bad movie that didn't sell tickets. Oh well.

This has never ever ever been true.