Disney Irish
Premium Member
Yes, it should be the top studio again.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I think Disney will top the total BO list again but Universal could be competitive this year, with a Jurassic world movie and Wicked 2 they have a couple that should hit a billion+ dollars, HTTYD could also be a big number.
Disneys mid tier lineup is better though and will probably result in a bigger overall BO, most profitable will also likely go to Disney but I think it’s probably going to be closer than people expect though.
Unis mid tier list is less impressive but many also have < $50 millions budgets instead of Disneys typical > $150 million, Disney has the potential to lose a lot more on their non hits.
Stripes
Premium Member
Universal has a strong slate and they will undoubtedly be number 2, but I think Disney wins the crown by a significant margin.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
All the reviews for Snow are positive, the only negative is the CGI dwarfs (rightly so, they should have used little people as dwarfs)
I initially thought this was going to be a loser, but now I am changing my mind, I think this will bring folks in and more importantly parents and kids (more tickets sold).
No one knows how much the reshoots cost, no one knows how much this movie actually cost to make and market but I now think the box office will surpass the 269 * 2.5 = 672M (access media number) and make money.
I initially thought this was going to be a loser, but now I am changing my mind, I think this will bring folks in and more importantly parents and kids (more tickets sold).
No one knows how much the reshoots cost, no one knows how much this movie actually cost to make and market but I now think the box office will surpass the 269 * 2.5 = 672M (access media number) and make money.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Most profitable? Maybe, but not certain. There are a few things that could go wrong and a few breakouts from other distributors that could surprise.
Highest grossing distributor? Maybe, good chance.
Highest grossing distributor with 20th century included? Definitely, Fire and Ash is this year. Spilling well into 2026 for good measure.
Just Walt Disney (not 20th) 2024 just had a 2017-like market share for the company. So I’m not sure why the internet feels the distributor is currently coming off a low. Maybe 2024 is a one-off? Or Maybe 2023 was.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Yes, as long as they are going by gross, not by net
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
If the company has two blockbuster movies it’s an acceptable year. It used to be great a decade ago, but they are generally a bigger company today and Iger has built more and more of a tentpole strategy. If the company has three blockbusters movies, it’s a very good year. If the company has four it’s a great to exceptional year. Likely there is no other distributor that is beating that.
Of course, they are chasing the unrealistic high when they did 7 (one of which was a total blowout). But I’m really not sure we’ll ever see that again, nor do I think any studio can ever kiss the highs of Disney 2019.
As far as I see it there are 4 good candidates this year and if one slips it still has the potential to be “a very good year”.
Of course, they are chasing the unrealistic high when they did 7 (one of which was a total blowout). But I’m really not sure we’ll ever see that again, nor do I think any studio can ever kiss the highs of Disney 2019.
As far as I see it there are 4 good candidates this year and if one slips it still has the potential to be “a very good year”.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
Again, these are "early reactions" not reviews, and they are from a limited pool of people that Disney allowed to see the film. Think more along the lines of influencers than film critics. Disney allowed people to attend the premiere that it felt would be more inclined to give the movie a positive social media reaction.
Now the movie may very well turn out to be good, and the reviews might end up surprisingly positive. But I've been burned too many times in the past by bad movies with "rotten" Rotten Tomatoes scores that initially had a wave of positive "early reactions" that I will always take those early reactions with a grain of salt.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
At this point we have to stop breaking out 20th Century (not that many are still doing that anymore) as if it doesn't count, its all one under Disney even if using different studio "labels". It would be like breaking out Pixar, Marvel, Lucas, etc., or back in the day Touchstone and Hollywood Pictures, just doesn't make sense.
Its all Disney under one umbrella and should be counted as such in the yearly totals.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
It’s wild how divisive Zegler is even on Disneys own social media accounts, Disney posted photos today of Zegler at the Burbank studio and it has 781 laugh reactions, 488 likes and 268 love reactions (49% positive), they posted photos of Gadot at DL at the same time and that has 738 likes, 410 loves, and 21 laughs (98% positive).
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
They are still (for now) separate distributors. 20th century as a distribution label has not folded. I think it’s fair to say 20th century obviously contributes and is “Disney” these days. The BS that Way of Water didn’t spill into Disney’s no good very bad year was one of convenience. Though I also think it’s fair that the company didn’t want to just acquire another studio and essentially gobble up its market share into no ultimate gain.
Fortunately for them, both remain strong when counted separately and massive when together.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
As a wholly owned subsidiary though even under a separate label it still counts in my opinion. Its like now Hulu content is all counted toward D+, its all under the same umbrella.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
What frustrates me about the whole ordeal is the fans mocking Zegler over her acting ability and claiming Gadot is better. I think criticizing Zegler's statements and personality is fair game, but I'm sorry, I'm not going to play along with this alternate reality where we pretend she's a bad actress and that Gadot is the next Meryl Streep. Clearly, not enough people saw Spielberg's version of West Side Story.
Stripes
Premium Member
Notably, in the video, the host mentions that he texted someone that was invited to the premiere but has been hating on this movie and strongly dislikes Rachel Zegler.
The person begrudgingly responded: “The film’s good, so what.”
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
West Side Story made $76 million worldwide (on a $100 million budget). So, I’d say you’re right.
I never saw it either so I guess I’m part of the problem lol
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Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
Likely true, Avatar is a crazy outlier though, with a $400 million budget the first billion will go to breaking even, then since it’s a joint venture with Cameron Disney (Fox) only gets about half the remaining profits, which insanely enough could still lead to as much as a billion in profits for Disney alone.
Love him or hate him Cameron is a money printing machine.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
The budgets are actually shared across multiple films as they've been shot back-to-back.
Both 3 and 4 are reported right now at a budget of $250M a piece, with 2 doing the heavy lifting at $350M.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
Agreed. I would expect this first round of reviews for it to be extremely positive. Campea is very rarely against Disney. As I'd guess most of the first look reviewers are. So I would take it with a big fat grain of salt. Hey, it might be good. But like you, I've been bamboozled before. That's why I just wait for streaming.