Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Mr. Sullivan]

Not the same… Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner was created for an adult audience, explicitly designed to challenge societal norms and foster meaningful dialogue on racial equality. Comparing it to the recent removal of a transgender storyline from a children’s show like Win or Lose ignores the vastly different audience and purpose.

Disney’s decision was not about removing LGBTQ representation. The company has stood firmly behind inclusivity, as evidenced by Strange World, which features an openly gay lead character—unchanged and fully intact on Disney+.

However, Disney has chosen to respect parental preferences, acknowledging that many families prefer to address complex topics, such as gender identity, on their own timeline.

What’s happening now is not unprecedented nor antithetical to the country’s ideals. It’s a nuanced approach to representation that balances inclusivity with the developmental needs of young audiences. Representation remains a priority, but context and audience matter just as much.

Edit: I said a lot more but I don’t wanna get this thread closed too.

So let me say only this: you can rationalize this all you want, but it’s wrong of them to do.

Queer people have a right to be mad about it. I know there’s many people out there who’ve never had to learn what it feels like to have your very existence and identity challenged and debated, but let me tell you it’s dehumanizing and deeply infuriating.

Especially so when it’s being enabled by an entity that has meant a lot to you your whole life.

 

[Disney Analyst]

On the eve of an eve… as we leave this year behind, anyone have predictions for the top films next year at the box office?

 

[Disney Irish]

On the eve of an eve… as we leave this year behind, anyone have predictions for the top films next year at the box office?

Avatar 3
Lilo
Jurassic World 4
F4
Wicked Part 2

That is my top 5 at this point (just box office, not related to the top 5 I actually want to see), may change later.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

On the eve of an eve… as we leave this year behind, anyone have predictions for the top films next year at the box office?

My guess is Avatar 3 but since it’s releasing in late Dec 2025 most that revenue will probably occur in 2026.

2025s release slate looks pretty light right now, I doubt the new Jurassic World movie will match the previous box office billions, Mission Impossible seems to have lost momentum, I don’t think the new Capt America will match the success of the old Capt America… Superman has some good buzz already and Karate Kid has had a big resurgence on Netflix so those are my 2 wild cards.

 

[Disney Irish]

My guess is Avatar 3 but since it’s releasing in late Dec 2025 most that revenue will probably occur in 2026.

Still counts toward 2025 since that is when it was released.

 

[coffeefan]

So, coming into 2024… did anyone have this on their Bingo card, and if so… what are the winning lottery numbers for next week?

I didn't expect it. I think audiences were waiting for a quality Pixar movie after years of average offerings. (I enjoyed Luca and Onward but it wasn't peak Pixar)

 

[Disney Analyst]

I didn't expect it. I think audiences were waiting for a quality Pixar movie after years of average offerings. (I enjoyed Luca and Onward but it wasn't peak Pixar)

Pixar needed the win, that’s for sure!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Jurassic & Wicked. I’ll be seeing those + Snow White.

Re: things happening here: there’s always private group chat where we can speak freely.

 

[BrianLo]

Honestly, I bet more than you think.

Perhaps, but not based on the state of this thread in 2023. Even I thought there was some fundamental breakage of family animated consumer habits that had been trained to wait for movies on D+.

We also had strong expectations for Deadpool and Joker.

I’m pretty sure we had a few calls that the company was going to be folding by end of year, 365 days ago.

 

[BrianLo]

Avatar 3
Lilo
Jurassic World 4
F4
Wicked Part 2

That is my top 5 at this point (just box office, not related to the top 5 I actually want to see), may change later.

Oh, I’ll definitely bump Wicked Part 2 for Zootopia 2. Assuming we’re talking worldwide. BOFO on Wicked domestically though. Avatar 3 I’d be surprised if it isn’t the clear top earner when that dust settles.

Something completely unexpected will bomb and something we aren’t even talking about will hit spot 3/4.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh, I’ll definitely bump Wicked Part 2 for Zootopia 2. Assuming we’re talking worldwide. BOFO on Wicked domestically though. Avatar 3 I’d be surprised if it isn’t the clear top earner when that dust settles.

Something completely unexpected will bomb and something we aren’t even talking about will hit spot 3/4.

Possible, just depends on story for Zootopia in my opinion. Its an unknown for me, I know that Disney sees it as an active franchise, but outside of SDL it hasn't has much traction as far as I can tell. It hasn't even been very active on D+ either. So its just an unknown, but yeah if it can tell a good story I'd put it in the top 5.

As I mentioned my list may change later.

 

[Ghost93]

I didn't expect it. I think audiences were waiting for a quality Pixar movie after years of average offerings. (I enjoyed Luca and Onward but it wasn't peak Pixar)

Onward was a mixed bag (although the ending was great), but I thought Soul, Luca and Turning Red were all better than Inside Out 2 (which is decent, but didn't really do anything new). Too bad we will never know how they would have been performed at the box office, as they were were sent straight to streaming during the COVID/Chapek era.

Lightyear was the only recent Pixar movie that I thought was disappointing. It wasn't a terrible movie, but it should have been much stronger. After a solid opening 30 minutes, it devolved into bland mediocrity and wasn't a very fun film.

 

[BrianLo]

Possible, just depends on story for Zootopia in my opinion. Its an unknown for me, I know that Disney sees it as an active franchise, but outside of SDL it hasn't has much traction as far as I can tell. It hasn't even been very active on D+ either. So its just an unknown, but yeah if it can tell a good story I'd put it in the top 5.

As I mentioned my list may change later.

Asia Pacific is the secret sauce on this one. Lots of interest in Japan as well from my observation. South Korea will also be a hot market.

It was in the top 15 streamed films for 2020 and 2022 across all platforms. It’s one boiling just below the top ten surface and did better than Inside Out on streaming until this year.

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

On the eve of an eve… as we leave this year behind, anyone have predictions for the top films next year at the box office?

I think Avatar Fire and Ash will effortlessly be the biggest of the year. I actually think it'll make slightly more than Way of Water, but still come in underneath the first one.

I think Zootopia 2 also ends up in the top 3. As for what else rounds out that top 3, I think there's a lot of potential candidates on the table, it's just gonna depend on what the reception to them is.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

Asia Pacific is the secret sauce on this one. Lots of interest in Japan as well from my observation. South Korea will also be a hot market.

It was in the top 15 streamed films for 2020 and 2022 across all platforms. It’s one boiling just below the top ten surface and did better than Inside Out on streaming until this year.

Zootopia felt omnipresent in China too, though that’s not a secret. There were even girls wearing Judy Hopps outfits at Universal Beijing.

 

[Farerb]

On the eve of an eve… as we leave this year behind, anyone have predictions for the top films next year at the box office?

Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3

 

[LSLS]

Perhaps, but not based on the state of this thread in 2023. Even I thought there was some fundamental breakage of family animated consumer habits that had been trained to wait for movies on D+.

We also had strong expectations for Deadpool and Joker.

I’m pretty sure we had a few calls that the company was going to be folding by end of year, 365 days ago.

HA, fair. Joker and Deadpool were rated R, so that changed things a bit (but Joker fell hard). I honestly don't think I picked what movie I thought would be on top, so I can't toot my own horn, but I thought there were big expectations for Inside Out, Moana, Wicked, and maybe Despicable Me? At any rate, I'm glad it did so well, I really enjoyed it, and my youngest who doesn't sit through anything sat there completely into that movie at the theater.

 

[Gremlin Gus]

Somewhat related to the topic, I'm REALLY hoping that Zootopia 2 isn't going to bad, especially considering the fact that the last universally liked WDAS film was Encanto back in 2021, yeah, I really hope Zootopia 2 isn't going to be bad.

 

[erasure fan1]

Superman has some good buzz already and Karate Kid has had a big resurgence on Netflix so those are my 2 wild cards.

The Superman trailer had really good buzz when it dropped. The main story trailer will be important. There's been recent reports that the test screenings haven't gone well. But who knows how accurate that is. But if the main trailer blows everyone away, that's a big step in the right direction.

I doubt the new Jurassic World movie will match the previous box office billions

I agree. I could change my mind once we get a good look at the film. But let's face it, there's more meh in the franchise than great. World was a solid reboot but each sequel took big steps back in quality. Even if the new movie is really good, I can see it turning out like bumblebee. A very solid transformers film hindered by a lot of sub par films before it. Therefore underperforming when all is said and done.

 

[Disney Analyst]

The Superman trailer had really good buzz when it dropped. The main story trailer will be important. There's been recent reports that the test screenings haven't gone well. But who knows how accurate that is. But if the main trailer blows everyone away, that's a big step in the right direction.

I agree. I could change my mind once we get a good look at the film. But let's face it, there's more meh in the franchise than great. World was a solid reboot but each sequel took big steps back in quality. Even if the new movie is really good, I can see it turning out like bumblebee. A very solid transformers film hindered by a lot of sub par films before it. Therefore underperforming when all is said and done.

I usually go with the trailer buzz as a good indicator, but The Joker 2 had so much buzz ( that I recall) from the trailer, and it all… fizzled out.