Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

I take it Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny didn't win big at this year's Oscars? Even with it's $300 Million production budget?

Poor things won four Oscars. Only Raiders of the lost ark won and was nominated for a slate of Oscars, definitely wasn’t an oscars bait movie.

In adjacent news a Boy and His Heron won best animated film so we can leave the fanboy arguments aside for two seconds and declare Studio Ghibli the winning studio.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I would anticipate some kind of bump for Poor Things.

 

[BrianLo]

I would anticipate some kind of bump for Poor Things.

Who’d have thought Fox would bring some of the biggest success stories? Between Searchlight, Avatar: WoW and presumably Deadpool/Wolverine. Plus FX is absolutely popping. None of it is perfect, but definitely those studios are justifying their continued presence in the hierarchy.

Not surprised a lot of their leadership are being promoted up the ranks.

 

[Tha Realest]

Poor things won four Oscars. Only Raiders of the lost ark won and was nominated for a slate of Oscars, definitely wasn’t an oscars bait movie.

In adjacent news a Boy and His Heron won best animated film so we can leave the fanboy arguments aside for two seconds and declare Studio Ghibli the winning studio.

Each of the first three films was nominated for, and won, at least one Academy Award in various categories.

 

[BrianLo]

Each of the first three films was nominated for, and won, at least one Academy Award in various categories.

My bad, poor googling!

 

[Prince-1]

I was in the lounge waiting for our third friend to arrive before going to the table, but they had the Oscars on at the bar and I watched it without sound for 10 minutes. Was it any good this year? I did notice bigger bowties on the men are coming back in style. According to my phone after dinner, Oppenheimer won big.

I still haven't seen that movie, so do I need to learn how to love The Bomb and go see it? Or do I already know how it ends...

Spoiler: Don't Read This Spoiler If You Didn't Graduate 8th Grade

We drop two atomic bombs, Imperial Japan surrenders, and at least 500,000 lives on both sides are saved by not having to invade the Japanese home islands. Cue the suburbs, rock n' roll, then Sony transistor radios and Honda motorbikes by 1965!

You don't see most of the films that are discussed on here so why start now??

 

[Ayla]

Ah, so there's a twist at the end? I love history and period stuff in general, so I'll look forward to maybe watching it on streaming.

It's on Peacock.

 

[TalkingHead]

In adjacent news a Boy and His Heron won best animated film so we can leave the fanboy arguments aside for two seconds and declare Studio Ghibli the winning studio.

Oscar gonna Oscar. IMO Spider-verse was good enough to be nominated for Best Pic, so losing to an okay mid-tier Miyazaki is on-brand for the Academy.

Will say IMAX getting props during the Best Pic acceptance might be a reminder to the interests in the room: there’ve been a lot of hits and misses post-COVID, but the movies that have been made specifically with premium large format screens in mind have all been met with success - Avatar, Oppenheimer, and now Dune. If anyone is awake at Disney, the next Star Wars should be a stand-alone large-screen spectacle that’s marketed as such. Of course, diluting the brand by sticking a big chunk into streaming series probably makes it harder to sell that message.

On that point, unless I missed it, did Iger not get his customary cutaway shot during the telecast?

 

[brideck]

Also targeted to some of the previous conversation in this thread, I thought that Cord Jefferson's speech (Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction) was interesting. He attempted to tell the studios that making 20 $10m movies (and letting the American public know they exist) can be just as good of an investment (if not better) than making one risky $200m tentpole. Given the tentpole success rate post-pandemic, maybe that's something that the bigwigs will actually hear.

Probably not.

 

[celluloid]

On that point, unless I missed it, did Iger not get his customary cutaway shot during the telecast?

No he he did not. SAG and WGA recent situations made it not a good time for that.

 

[BrianLo]

Oscar gonna Oscar. IMO Spider-verse was good enough to be nominated for Best Pic, so losing to an okay mid-tier Miyazaki is on-brand for the Academy.

Will say IMAX getting props during the Best Pic acceptance might be a reminder to the interests in the room: there’ve been a lot of hits and misses post-COVID, but the movies that have been made specifically with premium large format screens in mind have all been met with success - Avatar, Oppenheimer, and now Dune. If anyone is awake at Disney, the next Star Wars should be a stand-alone large-screen spectacle that’s marketed as such. Of course, diluting the brand by sticking a big chunk into streaming series probably makes it harder to sell that message.

On that point, unless I missed it, did Iger not get his customary cutaway shot during the telecast?

I haven’t seen it (Boy and the Heron) yet unfortunately! I’m sure in many ways it’s a token towards Miyazaki as this presumably will be his last ‘epic’. But Oscars are going to Oscar. Spider verse was great though and equally would have supported its win.

Though I wonder how a ‘part one’, but also a sequel weighs on the academy.

I do think IMAX is the way to go. Albeit Tenet was a miss. If you’re going to go all in, go all the way in.

 

[TalkingHead]

I haven’t seen it (Boy and the Heron) yet unfortunately! I’m sure in many ways it’s a token towards Miyazaki as this presumably will be his last ‘epic’. But Oscars are going to Oscar. Spider verse was great though and equally would have supported its win.

Though I wonder how a ‘part one’, but also a sequel weighs on the academy.

I do think IMAX is the way to go. Albeit Tenet was a miss. If you’re going to go all in, go all the way in.

I admired the Miyazaki title and it’s nice for his career to be recognized by the Academy. But, yeah, I agree Spider-verse’s Pt 1 deal didn’t help either.

Also found it interesting that the cinematography acceptance speech amusingly advocated for shooting on this cool new format called celluloid. I feel like anything the studios and filmmakers can do to differentiate the product in the theaters from digital content helps, and 35mm like IMAX, even if projected digitally, has the potential to be sold to audiences as a special part of the visual experience. It’s absolutely one of the reasons Poor Things looked as mesmerizing as it did.

 

[erasure fan1]

He attempted to tell the studios that making 20 $10m movies (and letting the American public know they exist) can be just as good of an investment (if not better) than making one risky $200m tentpole.

That's a tough one. I agree with the sentiment behind what he's saying. The smaller films are great, but not something the majority of people go to the theater for. American fiction made 22mil on a reported budget of 25mil. I'm sure the advertising budget was fairly small. So even at 5mil for advertising, the film lost almost $40mil. Not really a ringing endorsement. Would a bigger advertising budget have helped? I doubt enough to push it past 70+mil at the box office. The answer is probably, every film doesn't need to be 200/250mil plus event film. Just be smarter with the budgets.

 

[BuddyThomas]

The 96th Oscars Were More Than Kenough to Celebrate a Banner Year in Moviemaking: TV Review

The 96th Oscars effectively celebrated a banner year in moviemaking, from 'Barbie' to 'Oppenheimer.'

variety.com

Critic’s Notebook: Busy and Eclectic Oscars 2024 Telecast Delivers Many Highlights (and a Few Lowlights)

Jimmy Kimmel held together a slightly manic 2024 Oscars telecast featuring mostly predictable winners, a dazzling musical salute to Barbie's boy toy and several presenters in fine form.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[TP2000]

You don't see most of the films that are discussed on here so why start now??

I don't see most movies in general.

I usually only go to the movies once, maybe twice, per year with family in summer or on holiday weekends. But I do enjoy watching some historical films and World War II documentaries on YouTube.

I'll likely see Oppenheimer at home at some point.

 

[brideck]

That's a tough one. I agree with the sentiment behind what he's saying. The smaller films are great, but not something the majority of people go to the theater for. American fiction made 22mil on a reported budget of 25mil. I'm sure the advertising budget was fairly small. So even at 5mil for advertising, the film lost almost $40mil. Not really a ringing endorsement. Would a bigger advertising budget have helped? I doubt enough to push it past 70+mil at the box office. The answer is probably, every film doesn't need to be 200/250mil plus event film. Just be smarter with the budgets.

With streaming what it is, I think it is doubly a mistake to think of box office-only when it comes to the profitability of small releases.

Not small budget movies, but Apple has allegedly reported that both Napoleon and Killers of the Flower Moon were a financial success despite what BO math on your napkin would tell you about them. [Source: https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ires-napoleon-flower-moon-argylle-1235931957/]

ETA: No idea where you got that budget figure for American Fiction. I see "significantly less than $10m." [Source: https://www.screendaily.com/feature...jefferson-to-american-fiction/5188935.article]

 

[TP2000]

Box Office data is out for this past weekend. Most notable for us Disney watchers is that Kung Fu Panda 4 (budget $85 Million) just made nearly as much money in its debut weekend as Wish (budget $200 Million) made in its entire domestic theater run.

Also of note is that Migration held on to the #8 spot and Wonka is at #11 even with Kung Fu Panda 4 being the top movie of the weekend. Clearly there's a willing market for family movies that parents can take their children to! Why is Disney no longer dominating that lucrative market for family entertainment from its flagship studios?

Poor Things is now at #15. Searchlight's other film, All Of Us Strangers, appears to have left all US theaters now.

And rather incredibly, but useful for tracking purposes, Wish continues on in 32nd place in 55 theaters.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[DKampy]

I don't see most movies in general.

I usually only go to the movies once, maybe twice, per year with family in summer or on holiday weekends. But I do enjoy watching some historical films and World War II documentaries on YouTube.

I'll likely see Oppenheimer at home at some point.

Have you decided on your one 2024 movie yet?

 

[TP2000]

Have you decided on your one 2024 movie yet?

Not yet. I'll await instructions from my sister's family this summer when we all meet at the beach. Last summer I put my foot down and insisted we all go see Barbie together, so I may need to be more flexible this year.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Also targeted to some of the previous conversation in this thread, I thought that Cord Jefferson's speech (Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction) was interesting. He attempted to tell the studios that making 20 $10m movies (and letting the American public know they exist) can be just as good of an investment (if not better) than making one risky $200m tentpole. Given the tentpole success rate post-pandemic, maybe that's something that the bigwigs will actually hear.

Probably not.

I feel like studios are well aware of the average return on investment on different types of movies. It comes off as pretentious to act like he's telling them something they haven't considered.

Having said that, a variety of movie types isn't a bad thing. Especially when streaming is so important to the studios.

Poor Things is on Disney+ in many markets outside of the USA and it's good to have movies in your service that aren't just cartoon, Marvel, or Star Wars.

Netflix is successful no doubt in part because there so much content that they appeal to just about everyone.