Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[TP2000]

What will be the highest-grossing film of summer 2023?

Which beloved franchise will prevail?

news.yahoo.com

This article from May had predicted Mermaid would be the number one grossing film of the summer with $1b. It also had Indy 5 at number two with $950m, and Elemental with $600m.

I would be shocked at how far off base and inaccurate that article is, but it's Yahoo News, so I'm not. $600 Million for Elemental? $I Billion (with a B) for Little Mermaid???

It's interesting how closely Mermaid continues to track Aladdin domestically, yet is completely tanking overseas comparatively. The numbers are adjusted for inflation for Aladdin, and the $250 Million production budget for Mermaid is still just baffling. But the weak overseas box office is what's causing headaches for Disney and the Sharp Pencil Boys. The I5 to 20 Million from Japan over the next few weeks isn't going to be the savior here.

Mermaid doesn't look like it's going to break even and pass the $560 Million global box office number it needs to do that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This past weekend.
Transformers $60.5 mil
Spiderman $55.4 mil
The little mermaid $22.8 mil

This weekend any additional money TLM gets would be taken away from Elemental.

It’s done. Box office run is over. Will get $1-$2 a day at the US box office for another week or two and that will bring the total to maybe the $250 in domestic and maybe $ $460 total…but that’s set now.

Won’t cover budget and costs/cuts…it’s a small write down.

So the business/math is over. No debate.

Whether that matters to “cultural significance”?…is another question. Maybe it gets some impact off D+?
We can discuss that under less contentious conditions…

Until we debate whether Moana changes the world…I guess?

 

[Disstevefan1]

TLM is up to $414.2 million.

Who knows, there is a chance TLM may just break even!

Thats better than losing money.

 

[TP2000]

TLM is up to $414.2 million.

Who knows, there is a chance TLM may just break even!

Thats better than losing money.

It needs another $I50 Million to break even, apparently.

The momentum is not on its side right now to get there, but perhaps something could change?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

TLM is up to $414.2 million.

Who knows, there is a chance TLM may just break even!

Thats better than losing money.

I guess you were more of a “liberal arts” kinda guy?

STEM skills falling short on your projections.

 

[Disney Irish]

It needs another $I50 Million to break even, apparently.

The momentum is not on its side right now to get there, but perhaps something could change?

There isn't much counter programming in July for family films, only TLM and Elemental, and I don't expect Disney to pull any film early at this point.

So its not out of the question, it'll be tight though, but it has a chance.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’d love to know what Disneys internal projections were, I saw a billion dollars in a lot of articles and on threads here but I wonder if Disneys was equally as optimistic.

They can’t be thrilled with breaking even, at best.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I guess you were more of a “liberal arts” kinda guy?

STEM skills falling short on your projections.

Not a liberal arts kinda guy and I know how to do math.

I am just being hopeful.

When there is nothing else left, all we have is hope.

I guess you are right though, we will never really know:
What actually cost to make the film (TWDC will under state this).
What it actually cost to market the film (TWDC will under state this).
How much of the box office Disney actually gets (TWDC will not tell us this)

No one knows for sure what the breakeven number is.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It needs another $I50 Million to break even, apparently.

The momentum is not on its side right now to get there, but perhaps something could change?

You think only a 564 ish million gross will break even?

If they left in in the theaters long enough, they could do it, I guess.

 

[TP2000]

You think only a 564 ish million gross will break even?

If they left in in the theaters long enough, they could do it, I guess.

There was an industry trade paper, I think Variety?, that said its break even was $560 after including the modest marketing costs.

With a $250 Million production budget, a break even of only $560 seems rather optimistic but doable I guess.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not a liberal arts kinda guy and I know how to do math.

I am just being hopeful.

When there is nothing else left, all we have is hope.

I guess you are right though, we will never really know:
What actually cost to make the film (TWDC will under state this).
What it actually cost to market the film (TWDC will under state this).
How much of the box office Disney actually gets (TWDC will not tell us this)

No one knows for sure what the breakeven number is.

It’s gonna make maybe half what they wanted/expected.

At most

 

[Disstevefan1]

It’s gonna make maybe half what they wanted/expected.

At most

My next question is, will "half what they wanted/expected" be enough to break even?

 

[Disstevefan1]

There was an industry trade paper, I think Variety?, that said its break even was $560 after including the modest marketing costs.

With a $250 Million production budget, a break even of only $560 seems rather optimistic but doable I guess.

$250 to make + 100 to market = 350, but Disney gets about 50 percent of the gross from US ticket sales and less from the international sales.

To make it simple let's say they get 50 percent of the entire global gross.

They would need to gross 700 million worldwide to break even?

But the actual gross needs to be more than that since it's not 50 percent of all ticket sales.

 

[Disstevefan1]

You think only a 564 ish million gross will break even?

If they left in in the theaters long enough, they could do it, I guess. NOPE!

I fixed my own post.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Not a liberal arts kinda guy and I know how to do math.

I am just being hopeful.

When there is nothing else left, all we have is hope.

I guess you are right though, we will never really know:
What actually cost to make the film (TWDC will under state this).
What it actually cost to market the film (TWDC will under state this).
How much of the box office Disney actually gets (TWDC will not tell us this) THERE IS NO HOPE FOR TLM

I fixed my own post.

 

[Disstevefan1]

TLM is up to $414.2 million.

Who knows, there is a chance TLM may just break even! NOPE!

Thats better than losing money. Now it's just a matter of how much will they lose.

Fixed my own post.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

$250 to make + 100 to market = 350, but Disney gets about 50 percent of the gross from US ticket sales and less from the international sales.

To make it simple let's say they get 50 percent of the entire global gross.

They would need to gross 700 million worldwide to break even?

But the actual gross needs to be more than that since it's not 50 percent of all ticket sales.

Marketing budget was at least $140…that they’ll admit.

So budget x2 = $500 + $140 = $640

That’s the quote number.

It has 0.00% chance of getting that unless they start paying people to go see it.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Will TLM be on D+ in July?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

So budget x2 = $500 + $140 = $640

You have to double the marketing budget too, not just the production budget.

500 + 280 = $780

 

[Disstevefan1]

You have to double the marketing budget too, not just the production budget.

500 + 280 = $780

And this assumes Disney gets 50 percent of the gross.

We know they do not get 50 percent of the international ticket sales.