LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
I’m glad it’s attracting a decent number of viewers in Japan. It’s a film that deserves to be seen.
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Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid
- Thread starter NateD1226
- Start date
I’m glad it’s attracting a decent number of viewers in Japan. It’s a film that deserves to be seen.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
What will be the highest-grossing film of summer 2023?
Which beloved franchise will prevail?news.yahoo.com
This article from May had predicted Mermaid would be the number one grossing film of the summer with $1b. It also had Indy 5 at number two with $950m, and Elemental with $600m.
I would be shocked at how far off base and inaccurate that article is, but it's Yahoo News, so I'm not. $600 Million for Elemental? $I Billion (with a B) for Little Mermaid???
It's interesting how closely Mermaid continues to track Aladdin domestically, yet is completely tanking overseas comparatively. The numbers are adjusted for inflation for Aladdin, and the $250 Million production budget for Mermaid is still just baffling. But the weak overseas box office is what's causing headaches for Disney and the Sharp Pencil Boys. The I5 to 20 Million from Japan over the next few weeks isn't going to be the savior here.
Mermaid doesn't look like it's going to break even and pass the $560 Million global box office number it needs to do that.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It’s done. Box office run is over. Will get $1-$2 a day at the US box office for another week or two and that will bring the total to maybe the $250 in domestic and maybe $ $460 total…but that’s set now.
Won’t cover budget and costs/cuts…it’s a small write down.
So the business/math is over. No debate.
Whether that matters to “cultural significance”?…is another question. Maybe it gets some impact off D+?
We can discuss that under less contentious conditions…
Until we debate whether Moana changes the world…I guess?
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Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
TLM is up to $414.2 million.
Who knows, there is a chance TLM may just break even!
Thats better than losing money.
Who knows, there is a chance TLM may just break even!
Thats better than losing money.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
It needs another $I50 Million to break even, apparently.
The momentum is not on its side right now to get there, but perhaps something could change?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I guess you were more of a “liberal arts” kinda guy?
STEM skills falling short on your projections.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
There isn't much counter programming in July for family films, only TLM and Elemental, and I don't expect Disney to pull any film early at this point.
So its not out of the question, it'll be tight though, but it has a chance.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I’d love to know what Disneys internal projections were, I saw a billion dollars in a lot of articles and on threads here but I wonder if Disneys was equally as optimistic.
They can’t be thrilled with breaking even, at best.
They can’t be thrilled with breaking even, at best.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Not a liberal arts kinda guy and I know how to do math.
I am just being hopeful.
When there is nothing else left, all we have is hope.
I guess you are right though, we will never really know:
What actually cost to make the film (TWDC will under state this).
What it actually cost to market the film (TWDC will under state this).
How much of the box office Disney actually gets (TWDC will not tell us this)
No one knows for sure what the breakeven number is.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
You think only a 564 ish million gross will break even?
If they left in in the theaters long enough, they could do it, I guess.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
There was an industry trade paper, I think Variety?, that said its break even was $560 after including the modest marketing costs.
With a $250 Million production budget, a break even of only $560 seems rather optimistic but doable I guess.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
My next question is, will "half what they wanted/expected" be enough to break even?
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
$250 to make + 100 to market = 350, but Disney gets about 50 percent of the gross from US ticket sales and less from the international sales.
To make it simple let's say they get 50 percent of the entire global gross.
They would need to gross 700 million worldwide to break even?
But the actual gross needs to be more than that since it's not 50 percent of all ticket sales.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I fixed my own post.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I fixed my own post.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Fixed my own post.TLM is up to $414.2 million.
Who knows, there is a chance TLM may just break even!NOPE!
Thats better than losing money.Now it's just a matter of how much will they lose.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Marketing budget was at least $140…that they’ll admit.
So budget x2 = $500 + $140 = $640
That’s the quote number.
It has 0.00% chance of getting that unless they start paying people to go see it.
GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
Will TLM be on D+ in July?
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
You have to double the marketing budget too, not just the production budget.
500 + 280 = $780