Taika Waititi to Direct Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)

[tcool123]

Box office isn’t the only metric but it’s interesting watching what’s happening with the movies the last couple years… pre-pandemic Disney owned the box office with Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, live action remakes, etc all being box office gold, that’s really fallen off the last couple pandemic years.

In 2015 Disney had 4 of the top 10 grossing movies (2,3,4,10)
2016 Disney had the top 3 movies and 6 of the top 10 (1,2,3,5,7,10)
2017 Disney had the top 2 movies and 4 of the top 10 (1,2,4,7)
2018 Disney had the top 3 movies and 5 of the top 10 (1,2,3,9,10)
2019 Disney had the top 6 movies and 7 of the top 10 (1,2,3,4,5,6,8)
2020 Disney had 1 in the top 10 (5)
2021 Disney had 3 in the top 10 (2,4,6)
2022 Disney has 2 in the top 10 (2,6)

The big question is why? Are the other studios putting out better movies?, Are people losing interest in constant Marvel and Star Wars releases? (Unlikely since they are consistently top 10 still), is this Disney+ related and people are just waiting to see Disney movies for “free”? (like me), has Disney gone too “woke” and people are revolting? (unlikely but maybe a minor factor), has Disney put out too many duds and people no longer view everything Disney makes as must see anymore?, Maybe a little of everything?

For a company that was pumping out several billion+ dollar movies every year they must be a little concerned they haven’t had one hit that mark yet post pandemic (although Dr Strange is getting close), Spiderman hit nearly 2 billion last year and Top Gun is pushing 1.5 billion so the audience is there for the right movie, Disney just hasn’t been able to find it yet or they’ve changed the dynamic so much with D+ they’ve sacrificed box office revenue for streaming revenue.

PS… I just came to say I was excited it’s being released so soon on D+, didn’t mean to get pulled into a box office debate but I’m fascinated with how (I believe) D+ is affecting Disneys whole movie division.

The year is yet to be over, I fully expect Disney to end the year with four films in the top 10 thanks to Wakanda Forever and Way of Water. It’s possible that they end with three if Love and Thunder drops out, and if Black Adam and Shazam 2 have strong performances (or some other film has a stellar and unexpected performance)

 

[doctornick]

Box office isn’t the only metric but it’s interesting watching what’s happening with the movies the last couple years… pre-pandemic Disney owned the box office with Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, live action remakes, etc all being box office gold, that’s really fallen off the last couple pandemic years.

In 2015 Disney had 4 of the top 10 grossing movies (2,3,4,10)
2016 Disney had the top 3 movies and 6 of the top 10 (1,2,3,5,7,10)
2017 Disney had the top 2 movies and 4 of the top 10 (1,2,4,7)
2018 Disney had the top 3 movies and 5 of the top 10 (1,2,3,9,10)
2019 Disney had the top 6 movies and 7 of the top 10 (1,2,3,4,5,6,8)
2020 Disney had 1 in the top 10 (5)
2021 Disney had 3 in the top 10 (2,4,6)
2022 Disney has 2 in the top 10 (2,6)

The big question is why? Are the other studios putting out better movies?, Are people losing interest in constant Marvel and Star Wars releases? (Unlikely since they are consistently top 10 still), is this Disney+ related and people are just waiting to see Disney movies for “free”? (like me), has Disney gone too “woke” and people are revolting? (unlikely but maybe a minor factor), has Disney put out too many duds and people no longer view everything Disney makes as must see anymore?, Maybe a little of everything?

For a company that was pumping out several billion+ dollar movies every year they must be a little concerned they haven’t had one hit that mark yet post pandemic (although Dr Strange is getting close), Spiderman hit nearly 2 billion last year and Top Gun is pushing 1.5 billion so the audience is there for the right movie, Disney just hasn’t been able to find it yet or they’ve changed the dynamic so much with D+ they’ve sacrificed box office revenue for streaming revenue.

PS… I just came to say I was excited it’s being released so soon on D+, didn’t mean to get pulled into a box office debate but I’m fascinated with how (I believe) D+ is affecting Disneys whole movie division.

The biggest difference is animated films and the live action remakes of old animated films. The former simply haven't done as well for Disney (or weren't released in theaters) and I'm not expecting Strange World to change that.

The latter, have there been any in the timeframe mentioned? Cruella is the only one that came to mind and I don't think that had wide release did it? Just the D+ Premiere access?

 

[MisterPenguin]

The only issue with the "Rule of Thumb" is its set for an average of 50% which is lower than Disney actually gets at 55-60%. So we're dealing with averages not the absolutes here.

And yeah if it had China (and a full Russia release) no doubt it would have added possibly another $125-$150M.

Again, overseas, Disney gets less than 50%. And after a few weeks in theaters, Disney gets less than 50%.

That's why it *averages* to 50% over the life of the theatrical run taking into account the international market.

If you just want to look at the first two weeks domestically, then go ahead and use 55-60% for better accuracy.

The Rule of Thumb that I use is the one that industry trades, such as Deadline, uses.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Box office isn’t the only metric but it’s interesting watching what’s happening with the movies the last couple years… pre-pandemic Disney owned the box office with Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, live action remakes, etc all being box office gold, that’s really fallen off the last couple pandemic years.

In 2015 Disney had 4 of the top 10 grossing movies (2,3,4,10)
2016 Disney had the top 3 movies and 6 of the top 10 (1,2,3,5,7,10)
2017 Disney had the top 2 movies and 4 of the top 10 (1,2,4,7)
2018 Disney had the top 3 movies and 5 of the top 10 (1,2,3,9,10)
2019 Disney had the top 6 movies and 7 of the top 10 (1,2,3,4,5,6,8)
2020 Disney had 1 in the top 10 (5)
2021 Disney had 3 in the top 10 (2,4,6)
2022 Disney has 2 in the top 10 (2,6)

The big question is why? Are the other studios putting out better movies?, Are people losing interest in constant Marvel and Star Wars releases? (Unlikely since they are consistently top 10 still), is this Disney+ related and people are just waiting to see Disney movies for “free”? (like me), has Disney gone too “woke” and people are revolting? (unlikely but maybe a minor factor), has Disney put out too many duds and people no longer view everything Disney makes as must see anymore?, Maybe a little of everything?

For a company that was pumping out several billion+ dollar movies every year they must be a little concerned they haven’t had one hit that mark yet post pandemic (although Dr Strange is getting close), Spiderman hit nearly 2 billion last year and Top Gun is pushing 1.5 billion so the audience is there for the right movie, Disney just hasn’t been able to find it yet or they’ve changed the dynamic so much with D+ they’ve sacrificed box office revenue for streaming revenue.

PS… I just came to say I was excited it’s being released so soon on D+, didn’t mean to get pulled into a box office debate but I’m fascinated with how (I believe) D+ is affecting Disneys whole movie division.

Several movies that would have been released in the pandemic years were pushed back to the next year (or the year after that) and others went straight to streaming both 'for free' and as a premium cost.

And that was fine with Disney. Their top priority was and is Disney+ and not dominating the Box Office.

"Family movies" were hit particular hard because children's vaccinations came about much later than adults'. When your school keeps closing randomly for a few days because of a positive COVID test, you tend to not want to take your children to a movie theater.

Impacted movies that may have broken into the top ten:

• Onward (lockdown cut run short)
• Soul
• Luca
• Turning Red
• Raya
• Encanto (run cut short to get it to D+ for Christmas)
• Mulan
• Cruella
• Jungle Cruise

And consider this:

• a hiatus on Star War movies;
• a planned slowdown on Marvel movies once Phase 3 ended to cleanse the palate before Phase 4 started
• and Disney's live action studio pretty much stopped putting out theatrical releases in order to feed D+ with made-for-TV-movies. The last WDS theatrical release was Maleficent 2 in October 2019. About nine WDS live action movies have gone straight to D+.

Now, I know many of those movies aren't top ten candidates, but the point is: Disney wasn't even trying to rule the Box Office. They were trying to win The Streaming Wars (and they are).

 

[Disney Irish]

Again, overseas, Disney gets less than 50%. And after a few weeks in theaters, Disney gets less than 50%.

That's why it *averages* to 50% over the life of the theatrical run taking into account the international market.

If you just want to look at the first two weeks domestically, then go ahead and use 55-60% for better accuracy.

The Rule of Thumb that I use is the one that industry trades, such as Deadline, uses.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just say that we're dealing with averages versus absolutes. So we can't say for sure that it hasn't turned profitable already, that is all I'm saying.

We're on the same page here.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Congratulations to Thor: Love & Thunder. At the end of it's theatrical run. its worldwide BO is $751M, which made it profitable at about half a million dollars.* It will still play in some theaters as it goes to D+ this Thorsday, Sep 8.

I guess Marvel is now safe from closing shop before it bankrupts Disney Corp.

I guess woke isn't broke.

And I guess that a lack of trailers months ahead of a film doesn't mean a film is getting delayed.

So many lessons learned!

Tho, Disney does have a lesson it needs to learn: Reign in the budget inflation. It's killing profits.


*Of course, by using a 'rule of thumb' to calculate, it could have had a small loss, or, a larger profit. Such is the vagaries of no hard numbers.

 

[TP2000]

Congratulations to Thor: Love & Thunder. At the end of it's theatrical run. its worldwide BO is $751M, which made it profitable at about half a million dollars.* It will still play in some theaters as it goes to D+ this Thorsday, Sep 8.

I guess Marvel is now safe from closing shop before it bankrupts Disney Corp.

I guess woke isn't broke.

And I guess that a lack of trailers months ahead of a film doesn't mean a film is getting delayed.

So many lessons learned!

Tho, Disney does have a lesson it needs to learn: Reign in the budget inflation. It's killing profits.


*Of course, by using a 'rule of thumb' to calculate, it could have had a small loss, or, a larger profit. Such is the vagaries of no hard numbers.

I never heard that Thor was a "woke" movie. Was it? I thought it's main problem was its bloated $250 Million budget that is mysteriously large.

What is Burbank going to spend their $500,000 profit from Thor on, I wonder? Some new Xerox machines for Payroll? Maybe some new landscaping next to the Studio cafeteria?

Here's the final box office numbers, which are obviously cherry picked to prevent you from seeing the real box office numbers, as of today after the Labor Day Weekend. It's pretty much a summary of the Summer of '22 box office, and the Minions beat Thor by $20 Million. Remember, Minions has a cherry picked budget of only $80 Million versus Thor's budget of $250 Million, so the Minions profit is massive for Universal.

The Summer of '22 ended on Labor Day with Top Gun: Maverick as still the most popular movie, over three months after its release.

 

[TP2000]

As for global box office numbers...

Minions also beat Thor at the global box office. With a budget less than a third of Thor's, and less than half of Lightyear's. What does Burbank and Emeryville do with all that money they use???

Tuesday, September 6th Financials
Minions: The Rise of Gru = Budget $80 Million, Global Box Office $893 Million, Profit $653 Million
Thor: Love & Thunder = Budget $250 Million, Global Box Office $750 Million, Profit $500,000

Minions global box office is 11.2 times its Production Budget
Thor global box office is 3.0 times is Production Budget

Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

For a company that was pumping out several billion+ dollar movies every year they must be a little concerned they haven’t had one hit that mark yet post pandemic (although Dr Strange is getting close), Spiderman hit nearly 2 billion last year and Top Gun is pushing 1.5 billion so the audience is there for the right movie, Disney just hasn’t been able to find it yet or they’ve changed the dynamic so much with D+ they’ve sacrificed box office revenue for streaming revenue.

Agreed that concern must be growing in Burbank at this point. It's just not a sustainable business model for them anymore, to spend $200 Million on a Pixar cartoon or $250 Million on a Marvel movie and as a company end up a hundred million or more in the red on Labor Day Weekend.

I think you've surmised the basic problem; they aren't making movies enough American families want to see any longer, and they have sabotaged their own box office with a clumsy Disney+ format of releasing big budget movies "for free!" six weeks later.

Where they go from here is up to them. But the box office performance of their 2022 slate of films from multiple studios is no longer sustainable. And if Strange World and Avatar 2 aren't huge blockbuster hits this Christmas... Yikes.

 

[Disney Irish]

As for global box office numbers...

Minions also beat Thor at the global box office. With a budget less than a third of Thor's, and less than half of Lightyear's. What does Burbank and Emeryville do with all that money they use???

Tuesday, September 6th Financials
Minions: The Rise of Gru = Budget $80 Million, Global Box Office $893 Million, Profit $653 Million
Thor: Love & Thunder = Budget $250 Million, Global Box Office $750 Million, Profit $500,000

Minions global box office is 11.2 times its Production Budget
Thor global box office is 3.0 times is Production Budget

Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

And yet still no one cares about this Thor vs Minions BO competition except you and maybe some clickbait articles.

Oh and yes I'll admit I was wrong on my prognostication, but again I say who cares it was just a fun guess. Thor 4 still did better domestically than Thor 3, and that is a win for Marvel.

 

[TP2000]

And yet still no one cares about this Thor vs Minions BO competition except you and maybe some clickbait articles.

It's a fun new wrinkle for me on this Disney discussion. I've never been a movie guy, always a theme park guy, but the financial workings behind these big budget movies are quite interesting to me now!

Well, me and the clickbait industry rags.

Oh and yes I'll admit I was wrong on my prognostication, but again I say who cares it was just a fun guess. Thor 4 still did better domestically than Thor 3, and that is a win for Marvel.

New Xerox machines for the entire 3rd floor, thanks to Thor! $500,000 and counting!

 

[Disney Irish]

It's a fun new wrinkle for me on this Disney discussion. I've never been a movie guy, always a theme park guy, but the financial workings behind these big budget movies are quite interesting to me now!

Well, me and the clickbait industry rags.

New Xerox machines for the entire 3rd floor, thanks to Thor! $500,000 and counting!

A hit movie is a hit movie no matter how much the other films in the marketplace gross alongside it. - Forbes

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It's a fun new wrinkle for me on this Disney discussion. I've never been a movie guy, always a theme park guy, but the financial workings behind these big budget movies are quite interesting to me now!

I’m fascinated by it purely from a Disney+ perspective.

I used to see probably a half dozen Disney movies in the theater every year, probably bought a dozen Disney movies on Blu-ray, and had a TV package including the ESPN channels for sports, now I spend $13 a month for my D+/Hulu/ESPN bundle and havent spent any money on the rest for a couple years (although Covid also played into that).

Disney is making a fortune on Disney+ but I suspect it’s also costing them a fortune on the movie and tv side. We’ll never see internal numbers so trying to make guesses based on movie numbers is all we got.

 

[TP2000]

I’m fascinated by it purely from a Disney+ perspective.

Me too. I was an early adopter on Netflix back from when they sent me DVD's in the mail, but I still can't figure out how they make much money. Or how any of these streaming services make much money.

There's got to be money in it, but it doesn't seem to be enough money to keep funding new movies as if streaming didn't exist and people still stood in line for movie theaters.

They only stood in line for a couple movies this summer, mainly Top Gun and Minions. Thor made money, but with a $750 Million breakeven point on that thing you just can't win.

Disney is making a fortune on Disney+ but I suspect it’s also costing them a fortune on the movie and tv side. We’ll never see internal numbers so trying to make guesses based on movie numbers is all we got.

And we'll continue to discuss the box office numbers until someone comes up with a better barometer. The summer is now over, and so we wait for Strange World and Avatar. Both had huge production budgets up to $250 Million, and thus both need to be blockbusters this Christmas.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m fascinated by it purely from a Disney+ perspective.

I used to see probably a half dozen Disney movies in the theater every year, probably bought a dozen Disney movies on Blu-ray, and had a TV package including the ESPN channels for sports, now I spend $13 a month for my D+/Hulu/ESPN bundle and havent spent any money on the rest for a couple years (although Covid also played into that).

Disney is making a fortune on Disney+ but I suspect it’s also costing them a fortune on the movie and tv side. We’ll never see internal numbers so trying to make guesses based on movie numbers is all we got.

Me too. I was an early adopter on Netflix back from when they sent me DVD's in the mail, but I still can't figure out how they make much money. Or how any of these streaming services make much money.

There's got to be money in it, but it doesn't seem to be enough money to keep funding new movies as if streaming didn't exist and people still stood in line for movie theaters.

They only stood in line for a couple movies this summer, mainly Top Gun and Minions. Thor made money, but with a $750 Million breakeven point on that thing you just can't win.



And we'll continue to discuss the box office numbers until someone comes up with a better barometer. The summer is now over, and so we wait for Strange World and Avatar. Both had huge production budgets up to $250 Million, and thus both need to be blockbusters this Christmas.

Netflix, Disney, and other streamers, have been running at a loss on their platforms for a long time. This is intentional and why D+ prices were so low for a long time, as its a way to quickly gain subscribers. Its called loss leader pricing, a practice that many businesses have used all throughout history, supermarkets are famous for it.

The writing has been on the wall for a long time now, even before the pandemic, that at some point streamers will turn on other ways to make revenue in order to monetize those Millions of subscribers. Premier Access was Disney sending up a balloon to see if they can charge for content within an all-in one streaming service, it worked and people paid. They added adult content to D+ to see if it would cause a drop in subscribers, it didn't and subscribers increased, as they learn a large percentage of their subscribers are adults without kids. In December they will be adding Ad tiers to D+, a major revenue stream that amounts to the tune of $9B committed for 2023 alone by advertisers.

So with 251+M subscribers and gaining, price increases, Ad tiers, and the ability to release the occasional Premier Access movie, not to mention other monetization schemes not yet known, D+ will be profitable in 2024. Meaning that even pushing a $250M film to D+ instead of going to theaters is not going to hurt the bottom line. So you see long term the Box Office is going to mean less and less to Studios like Disney as streaming is offsetting any drop in Box Office.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Netflix, Disney, and other streamers, have been running at a loss on their platforms for a long time. This is intentional and why D+ prices were so low for a long time, as its a way to quickly gain subscribers. Its called loss leader pricing, a practice that many businesses have used all throughout history, supermarkets are famous for it.

The writing has been on the wall for a long time now, even before the pandemic, that at some point streamers will turn on other ways to make revenue in order to monetize those Millions of subscribers. Premier Access was Disney sending up a balloon to see if they can charge for content within an all-in one streaming service, it worked and people paid. They added adult content to D+ to see if it would cause a drop in subscribers, it didn't and subscribers increased, as they learn a large percentage of their subscribers are adults without kids. In December they will be adding Ad tiers to D+, a major revenue stream that amounts to the tune of $9B committed for 2023 alone by advertisers.

So with 251+M subscribers and gaining, price increases, Ad tiers, and the ability to release the occasional Premier Access movie, not to mention other monetization schemes not yet known, D+ will be profitable in 2024. Meaning that even pushing a $250M film to D+ instead of going to theaters is not going to hurt the bottom line. So you see long term the Box Office is going to mean less and less to Studios like Disney as streaming is offsetting any drop in Box Office.

Possibly but there’s a price limit, I happily paid for Netflix when it was $9 a month, when they raised it to $14 I cancelled, now I just piggyback on my Gfs account.

My time spent watching D+ has already gone down dramatically since the launch simply because I’ve watched most of the exclusive shows already, I’ll happily keep it with my $13 bundle but if they bump it to $20 or $25 I’ll probably cancel it also.

I think the biggest roadblock to streaming is the number of subscriptions, at $10 each it’s pretty manageable, at $20 each somethings getting dropped, at $30 each I suspect the service fails completely from mass cancellations.

 

[Disney Irish]

Possibly but there’s a price limit, I happily paid for Netflix when it was $9 a month, when they raised it to $14 I cancelled, now I just piggyback on my Gfs account.

My time spent watching D+ has already gone down dramatically since the launch simply because I’ve watched most of the exclusive shows already, I’ll happily keep it with my $13 bundle but if they bump it to $20 or $25 I’ll probably cancel it also.

I think the biggest roadblock to streaming is the number of subscriptions, at $10 each it’s pretty manageable, at $20 each somethings getting dropped, at $30 each I suspect the service fails completely from mass cancellations.

Hence why lower cost Ad driven tiers are being added.

Still give the lower cost option, but in a way that will also bring in revenue for the company.

Netflix for the longest time was adamant that no Ad tier was ever going to come. Well even they have changed their tune on that and are now launching an Ad tier in November to try and get ahead of Disney. Which btw, appears to be back in the $7-9 range that you previously were paying.

 

[erasure fan1]

My time spent watching D+ has already gone down dramatically since the launch simply because I’ve watched most of the exclusive shows already, I’ll happily keep it with my $13 bundle but if they bump it to $20 or $25 I’ll probably cancel it also.

Yea, it will be interesting how the Ad tier service will work. Personally my plan is to cancel once it starts. Then I will wait until 3 or 4 things to fully release and I will reactivate for a month then cancel again. Then lather, Rinse, repeat.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yea, it will be interesting how the Ad tier service will work. Personally my plan is to cancel once it starts. Then I will wait until 3 or 4 things to fully release and I will reactivate for a month then cancel again. Then lather, Rinse, repeat.

Just a guess, but I suspect eventually most streamers will come up with a plan to prevent the activation/cancel/activation/cancel type churn.

 

[erasure fan1]

Just a guess, but I suspect eventually most streamers will come up with a plan to prevent the activation/cancel/activation/cancel type churn.

There really isn't a way to prevent it. You can't restrict people from reactivating or they'll just walk and you get no money. You only have 2 options. Offer significant discounts on a full year, get that cash up front. Or don't push people to the point of wanting to do that. Churn is a major part of the steaming business. Just ask HBO when game of thrones was at it's peak. Every person I know who watched the show, only subscribed for the season then cancelled until the next season.