Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[TehPuddingMan]

They are indeed trying to do this all at once. It’s simpler and only generates the headline on CNN once. Friday evenings are appealing but they may not be ready today so perhaps next Friday leading into the holiday weekend. All I know is plans are under way.

Chapek wants this done.

I take back all the bad things I said about Chapek.

 

[Incomudro]

I was reading about this last night. For anyone who chose not to read the article here are the highlights. And yet, there are people who still say "it's just the flu"

"In an analysis of more than 11 million U.S. veterans’ health records, researchers found the risk of 20 different heart and vessel maladies was substantially increased in veterans who had COVID-19 1 year earlier, compared with those who didn’t. The risk rose with severity of initial disease and extended to every outcome the team examined, including heart attacks, arrhythmias, strokes, cardiac arrest, and more. Even people who never went to the hospital had more cardiovascular disease than those who were never infected."

. “We found an increased risk of cardiovascular problems in old people and in young people, in people with diabetes and without diabetes, in people with obesity and people without obesity, in people who smoked and who never smoked.”

"For example, veterans who had had COVID-19 faced a 72% higher risk of heart failure after 12 months than those in a control group who didn’t test positive. "

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

How about the omicron variant?
I don't believe it is causing the same long term issues, and it's the only one out there right now.

Well, @wdwmagic said it was closing until there was actual news. I assume once Disney makes a move, the thread will re-open.

I believe that news is coming fast.
I can't see WDW holding on to masks when they are coming off all around the nation.
As I once said, Disney isn't currently making people where masks indoors because they believe that is having an actual impact.
They are doing it because it makes them look good.
When looking good is no longer required, they are not going to be one of the sole holdouts because "they care."
They care about money, and a positive guest experience - which earns them more money.

 

[ABQ]

No, I was off yesterday, honestly I’m not sure it’ll make much of a difference in the casinos, even with the mask mandate most people had a drink or a cigarette in their hand so despite everyone technically being compliant with the rules very few people actually wore masks most of the time anyway (in casinos). Suburbia compliance was probably 99% though.

The biggest difference is going to be for employees, I’m curious to see who still wears them and who doesn’t, I won’t be surprised by a 50/50 split when I go back though.

Binion's appears to have been a mix, some dealers with, some without, same with the drink servers based on a pretty crappy live stream I was watching yesterday.

 

[ToTBellHop]

How about the omicron variant?
I don't believe it is causing the same long term issues, and it's the only one out there right now.

I believe that news is coming fast.
I can't see WDW holding on to masks when they are coming off all around the nation.
As I once said, Disney isn't currently making people where masks indoors because they believe that is having an actual impact.
They are doing it because it makes them look good.
When looking good is no longer required, they are not going to be one of the sole holdouts because "they care."
They care about money, and a positive guest experience - which earns them more money.

To add to this, Chapek believes as long as masks remain, some guests won’t book out of fear of close contact. “If I have to wear a mask, this must be dangerous!”

Once masks leave, he believes more guests will come. They are adding entertainment to prepare for this in the near-term but I don’t know where these new guests will eat…

 

[SingleRider]

To add to this, Chapek believes as long as masks remain, some guests won’t book out of fear of close contact. “If I have to wear a mask, this must be dangerous!”

Once masks leave, he believes more guests will come. They are adding entertainment to prepare for this in the near-term but I don’t know where these new guests will eat…

Plus most people who are willing to go to WDW right now likely aren’t too concerned about the virus and thus don’t want to mask.

 

[Heelz2315]

Because I text with people who would know. While Disney notoriously gets cold feet at the last moment this seems to be set in motion.

Chapek:
View attachment 620322

gotcha….while you’re in contact with them ask them how Disney measures all this and which metrics they use to guide their decision making

 

[mmascari]

Update on the reasoning why the FDA has started the EAU process for 2-5 year olds. Once again, the answer is a matter of degrees, not the binary "yes or no" thinking that it seems many people have trouble moving beyond.

At the dose that Pfizer chose to investigate, the antibody response was lower than hoped for in this age group after two injections. However, at least in adults, the equivalent antibody concentration does confer a decent amount of protection against severe illness, just not to the degree that they would like to start out. So, the thought process goes something like "This is good enough, and it looks like the preliminary data coming in suggests the third dose will boost the antibody level to the original target, so let's get the ball rolling now." I'll need to actually confirm this all when the FDA publishes the EUA paper, but at least that sounds good enough for my 3 year old.

Free Washington Post link.

Coronavirus vaccine for young children further delayed as FDA says it will wait for data on three doses​

https://wapo.st/3gDlL6H

 

[mmascari]

How about the omicron variant?
I don't believe it is causing the same long term issues, and it's the only one out there right now.

We'll find out in 6 months.

Remember, "mild" just means it's less likely to put you in the hospital. It doesn't describe any of the other impacts.

So, "maybe". Rolls your own dice.

 

[ABQ]

To add to this, Chapek believes as long as masks remain, some guests won’t book out of fear of close contact. “If I have to wear a mask, this must be dangerous!”

Once masks leave, he believes more guests will come. They are adding entertainment to prepare for this in the near-term but I don’t know where these new guests will eat…

I wonder if Chapek's belief is based upon actual guest surveys and statistics or did he just ask Madam Leota?

 

[ToTBellHop]

I wonder if Chapek's belief is based upon actual guest surveys and statistics or did he just ask Madam Leota?

CEOs are paid to provide their beliefs on a subject.

I can certainly see an argument that continued mitigations for 2 years have created irrational fear among some (in particular, educated, reasonably wealthy people in the northeast and west coast). I see that in my day-to-day.

 

[baymenxpac]

I wonder if Chapek's belief is based upon actual guest surveys and statistics or did he just ask Madam Leota?

he probably just shook a magic 8 ball, as we know most CEOs of multinational corporations are such flighty, go-with-the-flow types.

 

[lazyboy97o]

No we cannot - not anymore than you can say this will never end. It could be same spread, less or more. If you know it is more spread so certainly, then you need to admit you know it won't be a worry in the future. The hope is it is so mild we don't even notice the spread. How fast won't matter. If it gets worse we adjust. The thing is unless this is a life eradicating pandemic globally - it is not - it will get better.

There are billions of variants being created right now. They’re not named or identified because most of them never leave their host’s body. The way a variant spreads and gains significant traction is by being more contagious. It has to be better at replicating. There is no indirect relationship between transmissibility and severity of illness, that next dominant variant absolutely could be more severe.

 

[DisneyCane]

There are billions of variants being created right now. They’re not named or identified because most of them never leave their host’s body. The way a variant spreads and gains significant traction is by being more contagious. It has to be better at replicating. There is no indirect relationship between transmissibility and severity of illness, that next dominant variant absolutely could be more severe.

If it is, then it is but the scientific consensus is that viruses tend to mutate in a way that makes them less virulent over time. The "goal" of a virus is to replicate and spread. If it kills the host at a high rate that goes against the goal because the host is less able to spread it.

 

[danlb_2000]

If it is, then it is but the scientific consensus is that viruses tend to mutate in a way that makes them less virulent over time. The "goal" of a virus is to replicate and spread. If it kills the host at a high rate that goes against the goal because the host is less able to spread it.

But if the virulence drops to much, the body will fight it off before it has a chance to spread also reducing it chance of survival. There is probably a sweet spot for virulence that gives the virus the best chance of survival.

 

[Lilofan]

Judging by my shopping experience yesterday I don’t think businesses are going to have much choice.

I take my mask everywhere in case a store requests it, Lowes had please use masks signs out front so I wore mine like the polite person I am, I’d guess maybe 50% were masked, the donut shop didn’t have signs and the employees were unmasked so I didn’t bother, but many customers did and I’d guess 50% masked, went grocery shopping and they still had signs out front so I masked up and was amongst the approximately 50% masked…

The barn doors are open, even if a businesses requests masks it’s probably beyond their means to police it now because without a direct threat behind it too many people will do whatever they want.

It’s unfortunate people don’t have more respect for others, it would go a long way to solving most of our national problems, I’m all about personal freedom but with that freedom also comes personal responsibility, if a business says to mask up I will, it’s their business and I’ll abide by their rules (or go elsewhere), unfortunately I seem to be a minority in this country in that regard.

Vegas will need to step up in terms of tourist offerings and staffing issues especially when the floodgates open with more and more guests that will be enjoying themselves in Sin City hoping that Lady Luck is on their side.

 

[DisneyCane]

But if the virulence drops to much, the body will fight it off before it has a chance to spread also reducing it chance of survival. There is probably a sweet spot for virulence that gives the virus the best chance of survival.

True and Omicron appears to be pretty much at a sweet spot for both parties. A bit less virulent would be nice but it's a far better "deal" than Delta.

 

[mmascari]

If it is, then it is but the scientific consensus is that viruses tend to mutate in a way that makes them less virulent over time. The "goal" of a virus is to replicate and spread. If it kills the host at a high rate that goes against the goal because the host is less able to spread it.

True, except. Because, there's always a but.

As long as it spreads before it kills the host, that's just as good from the viruses perspective. Most of the COVID complications aren't from the initial virus, they're from the knock on impacts afterwards. That's part of why the newer treatment pills need to be taken in the first few days. They disrupt the virus replication. If you're past that and dealing with the subsequent impacts instead, they don't help anymore.

Meaning a more transmissible virus that has worse knock on effects wouldn't be a stretch. In fact, a mutation that's able to spread faster before any of those effects, which would also be before many symptoms would likely spread faster. Since people showing symptoms tend to stop mingling with others, or others avoid them. Ability to spread before that would allow that mutation more exposes and chances at spreading. Basically a variant that lucks into an optimized pre-symptomatic increased transmission would get more chances to spread. It wouldn't matter if the knock on effects are better or worse.

 

[danlb_2000]

What variant did the population studied have and were they vaccinated (or boosted) prior to infection? These are the key things to study because the current situation is that almost all infections are Omicron and everybody has the ability to be vaccinated and boosted.

Studying unvaccinated veterans who had the Alpha variant would not really be relevant.

Had to dig through the study, it was done one people who were infected between March 2020 and January 2021, so pre-Delta and pre-vaccines. Since the study showed that there was an increase in the chance of heart disease even in younger people, healthy people and people who had mild cases it is something that should continued to be studied to see if Omicron causes the same issues and how to see what effect the vaccines have. This is also import for the millions of people who were infected with those variants before vaccines were available.

 

[lazyboy97o]

If it is, then it is but the scientific consensus is that viruses tend to mutate in a way that makes them less virulent over time. The "goal" of a virus is to replicate and spread. If it kills the host at a high rate that goes against the goal because the host is less able to spread it.

This has been completely twisted into meaning every virus just becomes a minor nuisance. Smallpox didn’t evolve into just a rash. HIV left untreated isn’t just something swimming around. Flu seasons fluctuate in impact year to year because severity of strains isn’t constant. Pandemic flus happen and can still happen because severity can change with mutation. The mean of severity can be less than it was before but that doesn’t mean it will settle at very low or cannot fluctuate.

A highly infectious virus doesn’t need a lot of time to replicate and spread, so there is not much disadvantage to the virus if you die. As far as the virus is concerned there no difference if you are immune or dead, you’re not a viable host.

 

[mmascari]

As far as the virus is concerned there no difference if you are immune or dead, you’re not a viable host.

The virus also lacks long term planning and goal setting. It's incapable of thinking beyond right now. Otherwise, it would clearly want you alive so that it could mutate just enough to infect you again, and again, and again.

It's clearly a simple short term thinker and lacks vision. Must be on the management track, or maybe headed into finance.