Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Kman]

You keep talking about Ontario as if spread is under control there due to all of the restrictions and vaccine passports. I looked at the official Ontario, Canada data page and found the current cases per day per 100k has a seven day average of 63.03 (which would be 441.21 the way the CDC calculates it for the 7 day period). If Ontario was a state in the US that would be a little below the national average and in the same range as Tennessee which has minimal mitigations and a low vaccination rate.

I also grabbed a screen shot of this interesting chart off of their page that shows the case rate is (somewhat significantly) higher in fully vaccinated people than it is in partially or non-vaccinated people. I'll leave it to somebody else to try and explain that data.

View attachment 610588

I don't think anyone in the US should be lecturing other regions on their COVID response or numbers. The US is, and continues to be, a disaster due to stupid attitudes and the political nature of their approach to COVID.

Yes, Ontario is struggling like everyone else right now- No one will avoid that as Omicron is hyper transmissable. I suspect however that once the dust settles, that the case AND death counts will be exponentially higher in the States. That's how it's been so far and how it will continue. Sad but true.

 

[Incomudro]

Thank god there are so many martyrs willing to sacrifice their lives for the economy.

The economy IS the lives of many people.
Their mortgages, rentals, food, education, child care... etc., all depend upon it.

 

[hopemax]

Twitter was talking about the R0 for Omicron and estimates of 10 are taken as reasonable. The update from the party in Norway was that while at the time of their positive tests most people were classified as asymtomatic, follow ups revealed 80/81 people developed symptoms. With the rate of breakthroughs, those three elements add up to extremely large numbers of symptomatic people all at once.

I might have to take back my thought and give the nod to @Touchdown about shutdown… because it seems unrealistic that places can operate when everyone feels like they got hit by a proverbial truck. Although unlike the Calgary Flames who cycled the players out and back in over 16 days… you know we are going to try “everyone showing up sick.”

The truck is how I feel right now. I definitely have something. Odds are Omicron since I was in Florida. DH’s rapid test last night was also negative, so that gives us some pause. If it’s not Omicron, based on the solid fever I spiked out of nowhere my second guess would be flu. My Dad’s PCR test is today, so we’ll see what that comes back as. But I probably will be scheduling a PCR test in addition to taking the other rapid test at some point.

I certainly would not want to be working while feeling this way. So if everyone is going to get it, can’t stop it, we would have to switch to a recovery operation. So do we let people have the option to stay in bed to recover? Or is this another thing we can’t afford?

 

[DisneyCane]

I don't think anyone in the US should be lecturing other regions on their COVID response or numbers. The US is, and continues to be, a disaster due to stupid attitudes and the political nature of their approach to COVID.

Yes, Ontario is struggling like everyone else right now- No one will avoid that as Omicron is hyper transmissable. I suspect however that once the dust settles, that the case AND death counts will be exponentially higher in the States. That's how it's been so far and how it will continue. Sad but true.

I'm not lecturing anybody. @Jrb1979 is constantly posting all of the great things that Ontario, Canada (I always specify the country so as not to be confused with the city in California) is doing and how it is so much better than what the US is doing.

If there is no avoiding the Omicron surge, what is the point of taking any of those measures? Just virtue signaling to show how hard they are trying or how much they are willing to sacrifice their lifestyle for the good of others even if it doesn't do anything to improve the situation?

Even here in the US. Hawaii has all kinds of mitigations in place including negative testing requirements to travel there. Well, Hawaii is right up there with the other high case rate states at the top of the list.

 

[lazyboy97o]

We cant afford a shut down. We printed the money once. If we continue our recovery we MIGHT avoid hyper inflation as or GDP might be able to power through it. A shutdown 2.0 will most likely derail that.

And we can afford an involuntary, forced shutdown because too many people are sick?

 

[Kman]

I'm not lecturing anybody. @Jrb1979 is constantly posting all of the great things that Ontario, Canada (I always specify the country so as not to be confused with the city in California) is doing and how it is so much better than what the US is doing.

If there is no avoiding the Omicron surge, what is the point of taking any of those measures? Just virtue signaling to show how hard they are trying or how much they are willing to sacrifice their lifestyle for the good of others even if it doesn't do anything to improve the situation?

Even here in the US. Hawaii has all kinds of mitigations in place including negative testing requirements to travel there. Well, Hawaii is right up there with the other high case rate states at the top of the list.

The point is you guys gave up right out of the gate. The numbers tell the entire story.

 

[hopemax]

If X number don't require hospital, despite the sheer numbers - then the hospitals might not overload.
The common cold doesn't overload hospitals because people can handle it at home.

The common cold doesn’t have the Rt anywhere near Omicron, due to higher levels of population immunity. Infectious disease people have often used the example that if everyone got the cold at the same time it would overwhelm hospitals. But everyone doesn’t get it all at once because humans have a long history with these viruses that we do not have with Covid yet.

And like my previous post implied we likely aren’t going to let people recover at home. We will force them to work, which will cause some percentage of people to go beyond their breaking point, get dehydrated and suffer exhaustion that will require medical intervention.

 

[DisneyCane]

The truck is how I feel right now. I definitely have something. Odds are Omicron since I was in Florida. DH’s rapid test last night was also negative, so that gives us some pause. If it’s not Omicron, based on the solid fever I spiked out of nowhere my second guess would be flu. My Dad’s PCR test is today, so we’ll see what that comes back as. But I probably will be scheduling a PCR test in addition to taking the other rapid test at some point.

If you have Omicron then it must be because you were in Florida because I'm sure it isn't spreading in your home state (IIRC Colorado). For all you know, your family was infected prior to travel and brought it with you to FL.

 

[Lilofan]

The economy IS the lives of many people.
Their mortgages, rentals, food, education, child care... etc., all depend upon it.

Live the life you are dealt with and make the necessary difficult changes that goes with it. The let it rip mentality is sickening to listen to.

 

[JoeCamel]

Take a stroll down the flu and cold aisle at your local wally to note the empty throat lozenge racks. People are using them in greater numbers than normal and not just supply shortages. Bunch of coughing people around here 90% without a mask.

 

[hopemax]

If you have Omicron then it must be because you were in Florida because I'm sure it isn't spreading in your home state (IIRC Colorado). For all you know, your family was infected prior to travel and brought it with you to FL.

I went to Florida on 12/16 and my symptoms appeared on 12/29. What do you think is more logical? And I had a negative rapid test 12/28.

 

[Lilofan]

Twitter was talking about the R0 for Omicron and estimates of 10 are taken as reasonable. The update from the party in Norway was that while at the time of their positive tests most people were classified as asymtomatic, follow ups revealed 80/81 people developed symptoms. With the rate of breakthroughs, those three elements add up to extremely large numbers of symptomatic people all at once.

I might have to take back my thought and give the nod to @Touchdown about shutdown… because it seems unrealistic that places can operate when everyone feels like they got hit by a proverbial truck. Although unlike the Calgary Flames who cycled the players out and back in over 16 days… you know we are going to try “everyone showing up sick.”

The truck is how I feel right now. I definitely have something. Odds are Omicron since I was in Florida. DH’s rapid test last night was also negative, so that gives us some pause. If it’s not Omicron, based on the solid fever I spiked out of nowhere my second guess would be flu. My Dad’s PCR test is today, so we’ll see what that comes back as. But I probably will be scheduling a PCR test in addition to taking the other rapid test at some point.

I certainly would not want to be working while feeling this way. So if everyone is going to get it, can’t stop it, we would have to switch to a recovery operation. So do we let people have the option to stay in bed to recover? Or is this another thing we can’t afford?

I have noticed in my area that hotels and motels are near full capacity with locals. I would not be surprised if some needing to quarantine far away from their families check into a hotel room and lock themselves in. It may be a necessary and expensive option for some. In regards to someone getting it, a female passenger from Chicago to Iceland willingly locked herself in the airplane bathroom for several hours until landing after she tested rapid tested herself while in the air in the bathroom when she had a very sore throat.

 

[DisneyCane]

The point is you guys gave up right out of the gate. The numbers tell the entire story.

Many states did things a lot like Ontario. The vast majority of the US had some kind of stay at home order at the beginning so there was no give up right out of the gate.

What most Americans decided after some time was that we wanted to go on living and not just existing. From the descriptions (no personal experience) the good people of Ontario have lived significantly altered lives for 1 3/4 years to end up in the same spot as places who have just gone on relatively normally.

 

[DisneyCane]

I went to Florida on 12/16 and my symptoms appeared on 12/29. What do you think is more logical? And I had a negative rapid test 12/28.

When did you go back? Was the negative test BinaxNOW or done by a lab?

 

[Kman]

Many states did things a lot like Ontario. The vast majority of the US had some kind of stay at home order at the beginning so there was no give up right out of the gate.

What most Americans decided after some time was that we wanted to go on living and not just existing. From the descriptions (no personal experience) the good people of Ontario have lived significantly altered lives for 1 3/4 years to end up in the same spot as places who have just gone on relatively normally.

Look at.your numbers. Are you saying 830,000+ recorded deaths (not including excess mortality numbers). Is just the price to be paid for freedom?

 

[Touchdown]

Just to play with the numbers to show you how many people are going to get it at mass events, if you are in a crowd of 500 currently in New York City indoors, on average, 1 person with you will have confirmed Covid, estimates are we are only confirming 1 in 3 infections, so that means there are actually 3 infected in your crowd. Omercron has an R value of 3-5 (let’s use 4 for simplicity) which means that for every person infectected, they will infect 4 others. Therefore 12 people will become infected in that crowd. Therefore 15 people will leave that event infected or 3% of that crowd. If you brought your family of 4, you have a 12% chance, more then 1:10 that one of your family will be infected. Can you not understand why people are pulling back?

 

[hopemax]

When did you go back? Was the negative test BinaxNOW or done by a lab?

12/28 evening. Yes to BinaxNOW. I took the test upon arriving home. Like an hour after walking through the door. Due to my Dad’s symptoms, we didn’t go anywhere between Christmas and our flight on 12/28, so the only exposure in that window would be via my Dad. Which is why I was planning on another test 5 days post our 12/28 return. But now adding in a PCR due to the fever.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Take a stroll down the flu and cold aisle at your local wally to note the empty throat lozenge racks. People are using them in greater numbers than normal and not just supply shortages. Bunch of coughing people around here 90% without a mask.

BTW, the science on cough suppressants is that they most likely don't do anything since *among the totality of all studies* (and not just one cherry-picked study) they *may* only have a mild effectiveness. And definitely should not be given to children.

The same with cough expectorants (you can cough *better*!!).

When only *some* studies suggest a *mild effect* that *may* happen, and other studies don't... it's clear these are not the magic remedies some people think they are.

But... one can enjoy feeling 10-20% better from the placebo effect...

Cold medicine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DisneyCane]

The common cold doesn’t have the Rt anywhere near Omicron, due to higher levels of population immunity. Infectious disease people have often used the example that if everyone got the cold at the same time it would overwhelm hospitals. But everyone doesn’t get it all at once because humans have a long history with these viruses that we do not have with Covid yet.

And like my previous post implied we likely aren’t going to let people recover at home. We will force them to work, which will cause some percentage of people to go beyond their breaking point, get dehydrated and suffer exhaustion that will require medical intervention.

Even as contagious as it is and how rapidly it is spreading, nowhere near "everybody" will have Omicron simultaneously. Currently, the highest spread is in NYC where 2.3% of the population has become a case in the past 7 days. Even if each person needs to be out of work for a week on average, that's still only 2.3% of the work force missing simultaneously. Obviously, there will be wild variations between workplaces and some locations will be unable to operate temporarily but "the numbers" aren't as high as they appear when you view them in percentage terms.

Another way to look at it is if NYC stayed at that level it would take 43 weeks for the entire population to be infected. We know that the wave will not last that long, will hit a peak sometime in the next few weeks and then decline at roughly the same rate as it increased.

Look at.your numbers. Are you saying 830,000+ recorded deaths (not including excess mortality numbers). Is just the price to be paid for freedom?

It's the price to be paid for the other 333 million people to not lose 2 years of their lives. Also, Canada is not at zero deaths either. It's about 1/3 adjusted for population and there are other variables besides mitigation that factor into the difference, population density being a huge factor.

Just to play with the numbers to show you how many people are going to get it at mass events, if you are in a crowd of 500 currently in New York City indoors, on average, 1 person with you will have confirmed Covid, estimates are we are only confirming 1 in 3 infections, so that means there are actually 3 infected in your crowd. Omercron has an R value of 3-5 (let’s use 4 for simplicity) which means that for every person infectected, they will infect 4 others. Therefore 12 people will become infected in that crowd. Therefore 15 people will leave that event infected or 3% of that crowd. If you brought your family of 4, you have a 12% chance, more then 1:10 that one of your family will be infected. Can you not understand why people are pulling back?

Spread will be different at different types of crowds. Your calculation is probably correct for something like a wedding where the infected person is likely to interact with a large percentage of the other people in the crowd. At a basketball game it's not going to be the same because the infected people (lets say 40) in the arena are only going to be likely to be able to infect the 15 or so people sitting near them and it isn't likely for all to be infected. If the infected people are near other infected people (by pure luck) it will lower it further.

12/28 evening. Yes to BinaxNOW. I took the test upon arriving home. Like an hour after walking through the door. Due to my Dad’s symptoms, we didn’t go anywhere between Christmas and our flight on 12/28, so the only exposure in that window would be via my Dad. Which is why I was planning on another test 5 days post our 12/28 return. But now adding in a PCR due to the fever.

Given all of the information, I concur that if you do have COVID that you most likely caught it while in FL. I apologize for my initial reaction.

 

[DisneyCane]

BTW, the science on cough suppressants is that they most likely don't do anything since *among the totality of all studies* (and not just one cherry-picked study) they *may* only have a mild effectiveness. And definitely should not be given to children.

The same with cough expectorants (you can cough *better*!!).

When only *some* studies suggest a *mild effect* that *may* happen, and other studies don't... it's clear these are not the magic remedies some people think they are.

But... one can enjoy feeling 10-20% better from the placebo effect...

Cold medicine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Nyquil (or the Walmart equivalent) extra strength dries me out somewhat when I have a cold and makes me tired but I've never found any other cold medicine to do anything for my symptoms.