Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mkt]

My employer just canceled my January travel to DC, Detroit, and Las Vegas. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Andrew C]

Instead going back to mask mandate for US, the president should national vaccine mandate by Spring 2022 so there won't be a BIG Winter spike for variants.

Hah. You think that is going to do anything? Places in Canada like Ontario had mask mandates, high vaccination rates and vaccine passports. Yet cases are blowing up and they are once again clamping down. But it’s not a Canada problem. It’s not a US problem. The world is never going to have high enough vaccination rates to stop this so I really don’t know what the heck we are doing anymore. It’s not working. We can’t control it. The strategy has failed.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Hah. You think that is going to do anything? Places in Canada like Ontario had mask mandates, high vaccination rates and vaccine passports. Yet cases are blowing up and they are once again clamping down. But it’s not a Canada problem. It’s not a US problem. The world is never going to have high enough vaccination rates to stop this so I really don’t know what the heck we are doing anymore. It’s not working. We can’t control it. The strategy has failed.

The world is getting better as COVID-19 is under control by mid 2022 or end of 2022. I hope...

 

[jlhwdw]

Lots of New Year's Eve celebrations are being cancelled. Work holiday functions. Do the Orlando theme parks even entertain the idea of another long term closure? and would they recover?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

There’s so many businesses just hanging on, many won’t survive another shutdown.

An even bigger concern is tens of Millions of Americans have already exhausted their unemployment benefits and won’t qualify for anything if we close again, Washington better think this through and better act even faster to implement safeguards if they do close or 2022 will be a disastrous election for those in power.

It’s easy to say we should shut down but the logistics are staggering.

 

[mkt]

So, does this mean that WDW is going to continue on their vaccine mandate for CMs?

OSHA will begin fining businesses that violate the federal vaccine mandate on January 10

The mandate requires that businesses with 100 or more employees ensure the workers are vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[mkt]

There is probably some level of that. I don't know if it is enough to change the percentage drastically as those counties have been very high even when there were a lot of travel bans in place.

Just wanted to share this, as it adds some evidence that goes in line with what I've witnessed. Some zip code sin Miami-Dade county are at well over 100% vaccination rates due to vaccine tourists coming to be vaccinated in Miami.

Covid response hampered by population data glitches

Imperfect figures mean many countries do not know how many residents have been vaccinated

www.ft.com

and the paywall bypass link: https://archive.md/VULai

 

[hopemax]

Nobody is going to want to close, but like I brought up earlier… if too much staff calls out on the same day, what do you do?

For WDW they’ve already committed to certain staffing levels via reservations and resort bookings, and guests aren’t going to want to cancel either. Are they decreasing reservation slots? Do people show up and rooms aren’t ready? Do they not open Jungle Cruise because it’s labor intensive? January and February could be very interesting on what is operationally different on every day.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

So, does this mean that WDW is going to continue on their vaccine mandate for CMs?

OSHA will begin fining businesses that violate the federal vaccine mandate on January 10

The mandate requires that businesses with 100 or more employees ensure the workers are vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing.

www.businessinsider.com

What a mess, I think Floridas law still restricts mandates. So the feds say you have to mandate it, the states says you can’t… no matter what they do they are breaking the law and facing massive fines.

It would be so much easier to just let the businesses decide what’s best for themselves without mandates from either side.

 

[mkt]

What a mess, I think Floridas law still restricts mandates. So the feds say you have to mandate it, the states says you can’t… no matter what they do they are breaking the law and facing massive fines.

It would be so much easier to just let the businesses decide what’s best for themselves without mandates from either side.

If the mandate were through legislation, supremacy clause is clear: federal law trumps state law.

But it's through an executive order, so not as clear. Unless you view the existing Prince v Massachusetts and Jacobson v Massachusetts US Supreme Court precedents as case-law that gives power to Biden's executive order. At which point, I'd say that supremacy clause applies, and federal law will trump state law.

 

[Chi84]

If the mandate were through legislation, supremacy clause is clear: federal law trumps state law.

But it's through an executive order, so not as clear. Unless you view the existing Prince v Massachusetts and Jacobson v Massachusetts US Supreme Court precedents as case-law that gives power to Biden's executive order. At which point, I'd say that supremacy clause applies, and federal law will trump state law.

So nice to have thorough analyses by @ArmoredRodent

 

[mkt]

So nice to have thorough analyses by @ArmoredRodent

Saw that. Memories of dinners with my parents immediately returned, and a reminder of why I decided against law school.

 

[Touchdown]

If the mandate were through legislation, supremacy clause is clear: federal law trumps state law..

Actually, the mandate came from OSHA which derives its authority from a law passed by Congress and signed by the executive. Assuming the appeals to the SCourt fails, the supremacy clause will be in effect.

Of course since the ruling states vaccine or frequent testing, seems like establishing a testing regimen as a option satisfies both state and federal rules.

 

[Lilofan]

What a mess, I think Floridas law still restricts mandates. So the feds say you have to mandate it, the states says you can’t… no matter what they do they are breaking the law and facing massive fines.

It would be so much easier to just let the businesses decide what’s best for themselves without mandates from either side.

Yes, DeSantis of FL who signed into law in 2021 restrict mandates for private companies I believe.

 

[Lilofan]

NJ is not fully vaccinated and a return to a statewide mask mandate for all public indoor spaces would not surprise me

If that is the case in other states and states take it a step further, I got my share of ugly looks and verbal feedback when I went the wrong way in somewhat marked one way aisles only, shopping at the grocery store. There was a time when I thought two guys were going to have a boxing match after words were exchanged, when one guy told the other guy he was going the wrong way. Thankfully, cooler heads prevailed. The covid response at the store implementing one way aisles, limited amount of customers in store, limited amount on certain products to buy, felt like just recently.

 

[carolina_yankee]

I'm not sure it's an all or nothing and approach, and I certainly think total shutdowns of any industry will cause just as many, though different, problems.

I can see mask mandates, vaccination ramp-ups, massive testing ramp up, and capacity limits for a period of time. European style health passes for restaurants, museums, arenas would be ideal but we know that won't happen here.

Regardless of what one feel about strategies, there is a reality - sick people can't work, and that will create its own chaos. Nobody's political leanings or opinions can overcome that reality. Lots of non-working actors and stage crews for the news few weeks in the theater capital of the world.

All we really need to do is be smart and cautious, using the tools we have. Will we?

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm not sure it's an all or nothing and approach, and I certainly think total shutdowns of any industry will cause just as many, though different, problems.

I can see mask mandates, vaccination ramp-ups, massive testing ramp up, and capacity limits for a period of time. European style health passes for restaurants, museums, arenas would be ideal but we know that won't happen here.

Regardless of what one feel about strategies, there is a reality - sick people can't work, and that will create its own chaos. Nobody's political leanings or opinions can overcome that reality.

All we really need to do is be smart and cautious, using the tools we have. Will we?

So I have to wear mask again as I'm fully vaccinated if mask mandate returns or not in NJ by Tuesday? I'm so worried about that.

MSN

Forget the waves of Covid-19, one expert says "there's a tsunami coming" for unvaccinated Americans as the Delta variant continues to fuel new cases and hospitalizations and the Omicron variant is spreading rapidly and could soon swamp hospital systems.

"This Omicron variant is extraordinarily contagious. It's as contagious as measles, and that's about the most contagious virus that we've seen," CNN medical analyst Jonathan Reiner told CNN's Pamela Brown Saturday.

Cases of Omicron are doubling every 1.5 to 3 days in the countries where community transmissions are documented, the World Health Organization said Saturday.

And in the US, Omicron is expected to become the "dominant strain" in the coming weeks, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Friday.

The US was averaging 126,967 new cases of Covid-19 per day as of Saturday, according to Johns Hopkins University, and fourteen states saw an uptick of at least 10% in cases over the past week compared to the previous week, the data shows.

Scientists say it's still too early to tell whether Omicron causes a milder form of Covid-19 disease, but regardless, it will put pressure on the health care system.

"Why would you go into that kind of battle completely unarmed?," Reiner said. "Our vaccines will protect you, particularly if you are triple vaxed. People who are unvaxed should start the process now. Go ahead and go to your pharmacy and get vaccinated," he said.

Reiner, a professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, said he believes almost everyone will be exposed to the virus, though those who are triple vaccinated will not necessarily contract Covid-19.

"But I do not think that we need to just throw our hands up in the air and say, 'Look, we're all going to get it so let's just let it burn through the country.' If we do that, our hospitals will be swamped," he said.

Reiner said even if Omicron ends up causing less severe infection than Delta, the sheer number of cases it could generate could overwhelm US hospitals.

"We need to protect our health care system, and that's why every American needs to mask up and vax up right now because our health care infrastructure is at stake right now," he said.

According to CDC data, 61.4% of the total US population is fully vaccinated and 29.1% of those have received a booster.

More than 69,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19 across the US and more than 20% of all ICU beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

New York tops record for daily new cases​

On Saturday, New York State broke its record for the highest single-day Covid-19 case count since the beginning of the pandemic for a second consecutive day, with Gov. Kathy Hochul's office reporting 21,908 positive Covid-19 cases, up from 21,027 on Friday.

Covid-19 hospitalizations across the state remained relatively low at 3,909, compared to a peak of 18,825 Covid-19 related hospitalizations on April 13, 2020, according to available data.

"This is not like the beginning of the pandemic," Hochul said in a statement Saturday. "We are prepared for the winter surge because we have the tools at our disposal."

In New York City, positive Covid-19 cases more than doubled from the beginning of the week on December 13 to Saturday, although Covid-19 hospitalizations remained around the same throughout the week with a slight spike in hospitalizations reported Saturday, according to data released by Mayor Bill de Blasio's office.

"We're definitely going to get a tsunami of cases," Director of Global Health and Emergency Medicine at Columbia University Medical Center Dr. Craig Spencer told CNN Saturday. "We know that today we had record level cases here in New York City that only eclipses yesterday's record level of cases. We know that a lot of people are going to test positive."

The surge has already hit the entertainment industry in the city.

This week's "Saturday Night Live" went without an audience and aired mostly pre-taped segments due to the rise in Covid-19 cases.

The move followed the cancellation of some Broadway performances and the Radio City Rockettes' "Christmas Spectacular" shows for the rest of the year.

Hospitals are feeling the impact​

New York isn't the only state grappling with concerning coronavirus data.

California health officials said Friday they were seeing hospitalization numbers begin to trend upward, stressing the need for vaccinations and booster vaccines.

In New Jersey, "we're seeing long lines outside of our testing clinic, more demand than we've seen in many months for testing, because folks are getting sick," Dr. Shereef Elnahal, president and CEO of University Hospital in Newark, told CNN's Amara Walker.

Hospitalizations have doubled over the last two weeks, he said, and although 46% of those hospitalized earlier this week had been vaccinated, they had not had a booster shot.

Dr. Rob Davidson, an emergency room physician in Michigan, said he's seeing a "pretty critical Delta surge right now." And while he's seeing the test positivity rate slightly decrease, Covid-19 patients are staying in the hospital for extended periods of time.

Dr. Marc Gorelick, who heads Children's Minnesota hospital, said the facility is already struggling to cope with the numbers.

"When you're on top of a surge where you're already at 90%, 95% capacity, those extra ... preventable Covid patients coming in are the thing that pushes the system to the brink. And that's what we're seeing here in Minnesota," Gorelick told CNN's Kate Bolduan Friday.

In Oregon, officials forecast a grim early 2022.

"We can expect a surge in Oregon hospitalizations by mid-January, with infections that begin sooner than that," said Dr. Peter Graven, a data scientist for Oregon Health and Science University. "Combined with its heightened transmissibility, we expect Omicron will generate a large increase in the number of Oregonians that will become severely ill and likely need a hospital."

Scientists working to measure Omicron severity​

As hospitals continue to feel the burden of Covid-19 infections, scientists are racing to gather more information on the Omicron variant's severity.

The CDC said last week it looked at 43 cases of Omicron and most of those people had mild symptoms. Most were vaccinated, with about a third of the total group boosted.

"We've seen cases of Omicron among those who are both vaccinated and boosted, and we believe these cases are milder or asymptomatic because of vaccine protection. What we do know is we have the tools to protect ourselves against Covid-19. We have vaccines. We have boosters," Walensky said during a White House Covid-19 response team meeting Friday.

Data from two weeks of South African cases appeared to indicate Omicron was milder in severity. But UK epidemiologists said this week they found no evidence Omicron is causing milder disease there, although the Imperial College London team also said there was not much data to go on yet.

Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, told CNN's Anderson Cooper Friday that it is still too soon to assume Omicron will cause milder disease and that, regardless, people needed to protect themselves with vaccines and boosters.

But he said it was "clear that Omicron is an extremely contagious variant, that it doubles every two to four days."

"The problem, of course, is if this is so infectious -- and we might see hundreds of thousands of cases every day, maybe even a million cases in a day from Omicron -- even if it's a little less severe, you are going to have a lot of people in the hospital and our hospitals are already really stretched with Delta, especially in the northern part of the country," Collins said.

 

[correcaminos]

It’s being reported in a number of outlets. Here’s Harvard’s own announcement:

COVID-19 Information – Harvard University Health Services

www.harvard.edu

It’s all but inevitable that other US universities will follow (I’m in academia, so I feel confident in this prediction at least).

Sorry I didn't mean to imply it wasn't happening. Just that it wasn't a big enough story. I'm honestly not sure I agree with what is inevitable. I've heard no whispers here of our universities yet. Then again I live in a state that made us lose our ability to quarantine in schools more recently. The financial impact to universities were huge. We had much much lower numbers here at that shut down. Locally our numbers were higher this year than most times we were not in school last year. We shut down for much lower numbers last year vs this. It is not the same feel everywhere as last time tbh. I'm annoyed but no signs are the same. Many want to live with it and in my state, they rule the govt.

From my vantage point here in the UK, I think @jlhwdw is right. It really does feel like a replay of March 2020, and it won’t be long before the US starts seeing the staggering rise in infections that Europe is currently experiencing. I really wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Disney parks close again.

Nothing personal but your vantage point is too far away. Disney has been announcing tours returning this past week, not reducing anything. So far nothing here feels like it did back in 2020.

 

[DisneyCane]

Actually, the mandate came from OSHA which derives its authority from a law passed by Congress and signed by the executive. Assuming the appeals to the SCourt fails, the supremacy clause will be in effect.

Of course since the ruling states vaccine or frequent testing, seems like establishing a testing regimen as a option satisfies both state and federal rules.

Yes to your last paragraph. If an employer has a mandate that includes a testing option (at employer expense) then they can comply with both state and federal.

 

[DisneyCane]

I'm not sure it's an all or nothing and approach, and I certainly think total shutdowns of any industry will cause just as many, though different, problems.

I can see mask mandates, vaccination ramp-ups, massive testing ramp up, and capacity limits for a period of time. European style health passes for restaurants, museums, arenas would be ideal but we know that won't happen here.

Regardless of what one feel about strategies, there is a reality - sick people can't work, and that will create its own chaos. Nobody's political leanings or opinions can overcome that reality. Lots of non-working actors and stage crews for the news few weeks in the theater capital of the world.

All we really need to do is be smart and cautious, using the tools we have. Will we?

Regarding using all the tools, given the number of positive tests in the NFL, NBA and NHL which are all over 95% vaccinated, it does not appear that the vaccines can do much to slow spread.

Symptoms and serious symptoms are another story as I think the majority of these athletes are asymptomatic.