Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Nubs70

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
Bob Harlem said:
The Universuty of Florida just put out a new study this week on this, so this is probably better than just thoughts. This type of thing is actually useful for real planning.

Covid-19 Research » Emerging Pathogens Institute » University of Florida

University of Florida
www.epi.ufl.edu www.epi.ufl.edu

View attachment 592695
It includes the earlier projections, which have been mostly spot on. By new years we're talking numbers less than the start of the pandemic, and lower than June in November.
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Looks like a curve fit rather than a forward looking model.
 
October82

October82

Well-Known Member
Nubs70 said:
Looks like a curve fit rather than a forward looking model.
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I had the same thought. If you read their methods, however, it turns out it is a full SEIR simulation based on census/population data, a vaccine rate model, and tuned to the data. So it should have reliable predictive power.
 
Nubs70

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
October82 said:
I had the same thought. If you read their methods, however, it turns out it is a full SEIR simulation based on census/population data, a vaccine rate model, and tuned to the data. So it should have reliable predictive power.
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The authors need to republish in 4 months to see if it holds. It has the appearance of a 10th degree curve fit with a little wobble here and there. Must be a little better program than Excel.
 
October82

October82

Well-Known Member
Nubs70 said:
The authors need to republish in 4 months to see if it holds. It has the appearance of a 10th degree curve fit with a little wobble here and there. Must be a little better program than Excel.
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It's not a polynomial fit.

As @Bob Harlem mentioned, it seems they already do have a good record of predicting cases/deaths/etc. Perhaps someone can dig up their previous work, but it's much more solid than what I usually see shared.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
October82 said:
This is a misunderstanding of the "flatten the curve" idea early in the pandemic. The reason why lowering the peak just spreads cases out over a longer amount of time is because, without vaccination, no one has immunity to the virus without being infected. If people are vaccinated, this reduces the total number of cases. At that point, masking and social distancing can lower the peak and spread cases out over a long enough period of time that the total number of cases do not become spread out, but instead is reduced as people are simultaneously acquiring immunity from vaccination rather than infection.

Vaccination is fundamentally different from masking and social distancing. That's why, from a public health perspective, people should be vaccinated (and, as necessary) continue to mask or social distance depending on local conditions.
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That point is only valid if you need to buy time for people to get vaccinated. In the US, everybody over 11 years old who wanted to be vaccinated was vaccinated a few months ago. At this point, additional vaccinations in that age range are a small additional percentage who either didn't want to be vaccinated or didn't really care and are now being forced to by various mandates.
 
Kevin_W

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
October82 said:
I had the same thought. If you read their methods, however, it turns out it is a full SEIR simulation based on census/population data, a vaccine rate model, and tuned to the data. So it should have reliable predictive power.
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Yes, it's a detailed model... but still essentially a curve fit to previous data. you can go back to their report from 2 months ago that was posted on this forum (https://epi.ufl.edu/media/epiufledu/covid19-models/Delta_Report___Aug_14__2021c.pdf) and see how the model/curve fit has changed.

That's not to say what they are doing is wrong - the only thing we have is previous data and as you get more data updating your model is warranted. But it still says that regression against past data has limited ability to predict future data.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Tony the Tigger said:
It will be time when it’s time.
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So there is no longer any science based metric? I guess it's just indefinite masking until people such as yourself feel safe to remove the security blanket?

I certainly understand because the data is so striking how FL counties with high levels of masking essentially completely avoided any issues during the delta spike.

At WDW, I certainly think they will gain more guests when they remove the indoor masking than they will lose. When they removed it last time I was there on the second day after the policy change and practically nobody wore one. This indicated to me that the average WDW guest is masking because they have to, not because it makes them feel safe and they wouldn't be there without the policy.
 
T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
So there is no longer any science based metric? I guess it's just indefinite masking until people such as yourself feel safe to remove the security blanket?

I certainly understand because the data is so striking how FL counties with high levels of masking essentially completely avoided any issues during the delta spike.

At WDW, I certainly think they will gain more guests when they remove the indoor masking than they will lose. When they removed it last time I was there on the second day after the policy change and practically nobody wore one. This indicated to me that the average WDW guest is masking because they have to, not because it makes them feel safe and they wouldn't be there without the policy.
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That was when the CDC guidance was vaxxed did not need masks. I will happily take my mask off indoors when I’m in a county that has low or moderate transmission and not before. I highly suspect WDW will remove that requirement once both its two counties reach that number. Looking at trends it should be in 2-4 weeks, provided the trend continues.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
That was when the CDC guidance was vaxxed did not need masks. I will happily take my mask off indoors when I’m in a county that has low or moderate transmission and not before. I highly suspect WDW will remove that requirement once both its two counties reach that number. Looking at trends it should be in 2-4 weeks, provided the trend continues.
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I don't think it had much to do with the CDC recommendations. In the same time period that people at WDW couldn't take the masks off fast enough, a huge percentage of people where I live in Broward were still masking in places like Publix where they weren't required to. I think that if you are willing to go to WDW at all right now, you are not that likely to be a person that needs indoor masking to feel safe. Sure there are some that do but how many people really believe that a trip to WDW is that much safer because of indoor masking? You may convince yourself that it is so you can feel good about going.

Other activities are the same. Broward still has a very high percentage of people masking even though they don't have to. Yet, a couple of weeks ago I attended a sold out indoor concert at the Hard Rock in Hollywood where somewhere around 5% of the attendees wore a mask. The overwhelming majority of people who feel safe attending in the first place don't care if there is masking or not.
 
H

Heelz2315

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
So there is no longer any science based metric? I guess it's just indefinite masking until people such as yourself feel safe to remove the security blanket?

At WDW, I certainly think they will gain more guests when they remove the indoor masking than they will lose. When they removed it last time I was there on the second day after the policy change and practically nobody wore one. This indicated to me that the average WDW guest is masking because they have to, not because it makes them feel safe and they wouldn't be there without the policy.
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That's what I'd like to know as well, and have been trying to figure out for some time. What metric does Disney use to keep/drop the indoor mask mandate? Is it the CDC guidelines? The State of Emergency declared by OC? I wish I knew so I could try and plan a trip. Everyone in my group is vaccinated, (some with boosters already) however we just do not want to go to WDW and wear a mask. I don't mind doing it anywhere else, just not there. Trying to figure out when they'll drop it so we can plan a trip has been a challenge.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Heelz2315 said:
That's what I'd like to know as well, and have been trying to figure out for some time. What metric does Disney use to keep/drop the indoor mask mandate? Is it the CDC guidelines? The State of Emergency declared by OC? I wish I knew so I could try and plan a trip. Everyone in my group is vaccinated, (some with boosters already) however we just do not want to go to WDW and wear a mask. I don't mind doing it anywhere else, just not there. Trying to figure out when they'll drop it so we can plan a trip has been a challenge.
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From what I can tell, the OC State of Emergency was declared at the start of the last humongous wave. It listed in the "whereas's" a bunch of stats that showed things were bad, and therefore, it imposed a mandate, which it couldn't really enforce due to the Governor's and legislature's ban on fines/punishment.

So, we don't know when exactly the OC will lift their toothless mandate. BUT... it seems they're going to be following the CDC guideline and will drop the 'mask mandate' when OC hits "moderate risk." The OC SoE is renewed on a weekly basis as they check the current stats.

And it seems that's what WDW is going to do, too, voluntarily.

But, we don't know for sure. But it would look bad for WDW if the CDC is saying everyone *should* be masked in public indoor spaces in places in which community spread is significant (and OC is currently in the CDC's "high risk" category), and they don't follow. WDW also has to contend with unions that want to protect their members, so, they're involved, too.
 
H

Heelz2315

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
From what I can tell, the OC State of Emergency was declared at the start of the last humongous wave. It listed in the "whereas's" a bunch of stats that showed things were bad, and therefore, it imposed a mandate, which it couldn't really enforce due to the Governor's and legislature's ban on fines/punishment.

So, we don't know when exactly the OC will lift their toothless mandate. BUT... it seems they're going to be following the CDC guideline and will drop the 'mask mandate' when OC hits "moderate risk." The OC SoE is renewed on a weekly basis as they check the current stats.

And it seems that's what WDW is going to do, too, voluntarily.

But, we don't know for sure. But it would look bad for WDW if the CDC is saying everyone *should* be masked in public indoor spaces in places in which community spread is significant (and OC is currently in the CDC's "high risk" category), and they don't follow. WDW also has to contend with unions that want to protect their members, so, they're involved, too.
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Thanks! That does give some guidance. Orange Co should hopefully hit the "moderate" category in a month or two, at it's current rate of decent. Hopefully Orange Co lifts it's state of emergency, Orange Co is in the yellow/blue (moderate-low) color by cases, and WDW lifts it's indoor masks.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
From what I can tell, the OC State of Emergency was declared at the start of the last humongous wave. It listed in the "whereas's" a bunch of stats that showed things were bad, and therefore, it imposed a mandate, which it couldn't really enforce due to the Governor's and legislature's ban on fines/punishment.

So, we don't know when exactly the OC will lift their toothless mandate. BUT... it seems they're going to be following the CDC guideline and will drop the 'mask mandate' when OC hits "moderate risk." The OC SoE is renewed on a weekly basis as they check the current stats.

And it seems that's what WDW is going to do, too, voluntarily.

But, we don't know for sure. But it would look bad for WDW if the CDC is saying everyone *should* be masked in public indoor spaces in places in which community spread is significant (and OC is currently in the CDC's "high risk" category), and they don't follow. WDW also has to contend with unions that want to protect their members, so, they're involved, too.
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I'm not sure the exact date of the State of Emergency in OC was declared but the law does not ban fines/punishment. It allows the Governor to invalidate any non-weather related emergency order at any time and it also sets a limit of 42 days maximum for any local, non-weather related order. Whatever teeth it does have (which I'm sure were left out because it would have been immediately invalidated) expire by statute after 42 days and they can not replace it with a "substantially similar" order.
 
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