With the first day in China of 107 million and Boxoffice Mojo's initial weekend estimate of 300 million in North America, I have to say yes. I would put the chances at greater than 50% that Endgame will set that amazing record. With 4 days left in China, I think 327 million is a reasonable estimate for China and if Endgame breaks 300 million in North America, the total for those 2 regions would be 627 million and would only need 373 million from the rest if the world.
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Will Endgame reach 1 billion on its first Sunday? Yes
- Thread starter seascape
- Start date
jt04
Well-Known Member
If it reaches a billion that quick then 3 billion is in play total.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I think it is looking more likely with Chinese numbers coming in. Deadline has a great article on what it would take (essentially China and/or US over indexing with 300 million weekend openings).
The day and date total of Infinity War (IF it had included China) was 831. It only opened to 191 million in China so essentially a huge chunk of the leg work would be made up by that market. Or essentially all of it since the Infinity War totals didn't include the market in the first place.
There is a couple of interesting things here, China has never opened over 200 million, suddenly we are talking 300 (a feat that the people have previously suspected still wouldn't be achieved in the North American market). China also essentially had a local market movie that made 849 million domestically. China apparently just started overtaking the North American Box office and isn't looking back.
I predict the 'next' item to fall after this opening 1 billion dollar weekend is 1 billion dollars from a single market (China).
At the same time I don't think this is a benchmark that this weekend will be a record that will essentially ever be overtaken in a decade (unless by another Marvel movie). No franchise to date has consistently performed so well in every single market. These worldwide day and date releases in every major market are also a rarity.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately 1 billion is technically only a 20% odd gain on Infinity War and it needs 50% or more robust legs. A 1.1 billion bow would make it more possible, but I think the upper limit for this movie is probably 2.5 billion.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
It's doable. With the projected returns already from China, other major markets, and the mad dash to get more shows added everywhere - it's a strong showing across the board. The only major stumbling block is how many shows a screen can support before midnight Sunday.
A predicted 250m+opening from China, near or at 300m opening in NA, and it's pulling record sales in just about every market from Australia to Europe ... If Endgame doesn't manage the 1 Billion it's unlikely that another movie will for sometime.
A predicted 250m+opening from China, near or at 300m opening in NA, and it's pulling record sales in just about every market from Australia to Europe ... If Endgame doesn't manage the 1 Billion it's unlikely that another movie will for sometime.
Nope. Kennedy and Co. are a special kind of stupid for mishandling SW so grotesquely.
I expect Endgame to hit $1 billion this weekend worldwide. I don't see how it couldn't, to be honest.
And, as I said... in some other thread that I completely forgot the location of... we may not see another movie event like this ever.
I expect Endgame to hit $1 billion this weekend worldwide. I don't see how it couldn't, to be honest.
And, as I said... in some other thread that I completely forgot the location of... we may not see another movie event like this ever.
jt04
Well-Known Member
Reliable sources now tracking above 305 million opening weekend in North America. Still climbing.
DisneyGigi
Well-Known Member
I so hope so!! We have several theaters here with 10-15 screens, most seats that are not at very early or late times have very limited seats left for the weekend. (Like 1 here and there) or sold out.
I love what Marvel has created with these movies and it deserves to have a record opening and gross IMO. Star Wars did not live up to the hype, at least for me. I never got the draw of Avatar either...
I will be doing my part to make it big lol- be there first thing in the morning then back Wednesday! Most likely see it again when we get home from vacation.
I love what Marvel has created with these movies and it deserves to have a record opening and gross IMO. Star Wars did not live up to the hype, at least for me. I never got the draw of Avatar either...
I will be doing my part to make it big lol- be there first thing in the morning then back Wednesday! Most likely see it again when we get home from vacation.
It is still too early but Deadline in reporting the international box office results so far are indicating a foreign opening weekend total of 700 plus million. Thus Endgame does not have to do 300 million in North America to reach 1 billion on Sunday. Given that initial trending in North America are for 300 plus million here, I have to say it now looks like a 75% chance on 1 billion on Sunday. It also looks like Disney can pass 1 billion in their North American box office receipts on April 30. Second fastest ever.
jt04
Well-Known Member
60 million in Thursday night previews. I am not sure when the cut off was for previews since so many theaters ran all night. Friday should be a record too for standalone sales. I am starting to wonder if it will pass Captain America's worldwide gross on Sunday. I don't see how Endgame doesn't reach 1 billion on Sunday.
Also Disney should pass 1 billion in North America ticket sale and 3 billion worldwide on April 30.
Also Disney should pass 1 billion in North America ticket sale and 3 billion worldwide on April 30.
WhatJaneSays
Well-Known Member
In North America movie days run from 6 am to 6 am, so any movie that starts at 5:59 AM or earlier counts for the previous day.
Thanks. I didn't know that. Anyway, according to everything I am reading Endgame should break 300 million in North America. Provided that is true and China also breaks 300 million the odds are 95% that it will break 1 billion on Sunday. Therefore it should easily pass Titanic and still has a small chance at Avatar. I still only put that at about 5%. There are just too many movies coming out that will take Box Office.
Deadline is now reporting box office estimates for the weekend in North America are now 315 to 330 million. I was at an AMC theater and it was crazy. This line nothing theaters have ever seen before. I think 1 billion is just about guaranteed. Passing Captain Marvel and being the highest grossing movie of the year on Sunday is very possible.