Will Disney's attendance drop?

[captainkidd]

Anyone have any thoughts about 2013? This has nothing to do with the state of WDW. For all we know, 2013 could be a banner year for the shape of the parks. However, I have to assume, if airfare prices stay as they are (or get worse), attendance will decline. Phrases like "I've never seen prices this high" get tossed around a lot, but I can honestly say, in the 15 years I've been paying for my own trips, I have never seen airfare so high. Now, obviously, from an inflation point of view, this only seems natural, but it's more than that. Just 3 years ago, I flew my family of 5 roundtrip from Providence for $600. 2 years ago, from Boston, maybe $1,500 roundtrip. I bought our airfare for July months ago and paid about $1,600. Right now, the exact same flights are $2,700. For January, I paid over $400 per person roundtrip. I just don't see this getting much better, especially given the fact that gas prices have been dropping. If they start to go up again, how will it affect airfare?

I really believe the travel industry as a whole is going to take a massive hit next year. People will drive a reasonable distance, but the average family does not want to drive hundreds or thousands of miles to go anywhere.

 

[durangojim]

I think a slight amount for repeat visitors like you and me. next year we're only going to wdw once because we'll be going on our second Disney cruise. We found the cruise to be exactly what staying on property at wdw used to be - a place with exemplary service and superb attention to detail. We'll also be going to Disneyland for the first time in 6 years. I won't be renewing my AP when it expires in Oct.

 

[captainkidd]

I've already purchased airfare for January, but obviously not for our 1st Disneyland trip in July. Honestly, at this point, it's a toss-up. I'm not gonna spend $5,000 on airfare.

 

[DisneyJoe]

I already have many clients with bookings in 2013. Even in the current economy, this was a record year for my company.

I know families that drive from Canada to WDW and back again. Try flying from a Canadian airport if you think US airfare is bad (they have more taxes and fees).

Personally, I don't see an issue.

 

[jlevis]

Don't know. We drive pretty much everywhere and have for sometime. It's a 1,200 mile trip for us. We enjoy the drive and we normally stop in Macon, Ga. The savings over air fare vary, of course, but that's minor compared to the relaxed trip over the hastle of flying. We stay off site so we save on a rental, too.

 

[DisneyJoe]

In the past, if Disney sees a decline in bookings due to those who don't want to fly, they offer discounts to the drive market (FL, GA, etc) to help fill rooms. I believe offsite hotels have sometimes done this too.

 

[Jeff456]

Not sure about US flights but flights from the UK are SERIOUSLY expensive... I'll still keep coming though, flights would have to double quickly to put me off.

 

[nepalostparks]

While airfare in general is higher overall, there are still deals to be had, and there are some markets where prices are just as good if not better than in the last few years. Take East Central Pennsylvania, for example. Frontier is now flying direct out of Allentown and Harrisburg into Orlando, and prices start under $100 one way, all taxes and fees included. Whether or not those prices/services hold through next year remains to be seen, but it provides an example that not all airfare prices have skyrocketed.

As for the future of gas pricing, who knows. Gas prices were supposed to have topped $4 per gallon by Memorial Day, instead we've seen a 70 cent drop in the last 6 to 8 weeks. I don't think we can comfortably predict what gas prices will look like next year, let alone next month.

 

[captainkidd]

As for the future of gas pricing, who knows. Gas prices were supposed to have topped $4 per gallon by Memorial Day, instead we've seen a 70 cent drop in the last 6 to 8 weeks. I don't think we can comfortably predict what gas prices will look like next year, let alone next month.

That's what worries me. With gas prices dropping (which is fantastic) you'd think airfare would be dropping too.

 

[GoofGoof]

The airlines defy logic when it comes to prices. When crude oil hit $120 a barrel they jacked up prices and started charging to check bags. Now crude is back to $80 and the prices havent come down and they still hit you for checked bag fees. The fact that the airlines keep merging has led to less competition. Southwest doesnt charge for bags and can sometimes be cheaper, but they dont fly everywhere Florida is only a 2.5 hour flight for me, but the prices are insane now. We flew into Tampa on frequent flier miles for the trip I just got back from. Couldn't get a free ticket to Orlando but Tampa is only a little over an hour drive and we were renting a car anyway since we were making more than 1 stop on the trip. You don't get the free bus from the airport but if it saves you enough per ticket it could be worth it to fly to Tampa. For me personally I will still go but I will not be happy about the prices.

 

[nepalostparks]

The airlines defy logic when it comes to prices.
....
The fact that the airlines keep merging has led to less competition.

Airline prices have defied logic for a long time. The price can be $100 right now, $400 in an hour, and $150 in two hours. As a travel agent, I've had flight prices change in the middle of booking them (that's always loads of fun).

I think you're right on the merging - less competition means less reason to drop prices in order to get customers. In markets where there are discount airlines providing service (Southwest, Frontier, JetBlue, etc.) there are still decent prices to be found. A lot of times it depends on when you want to fly (time of year, day of week, time of day, it all factors into it.)

 

[GoofGoof]

Airline prices have defied logic for a long time. The price can be $100 right now, $400 in an hour, and $150 in two hours. As a travel agent, I've had flight prices change in the middle of booking them (that's always loads of fun).

I think you're right on the merging - less competition means less reason to drop prices in order to get customers. In markets where there are discount airlines providing service (Southwest, Frontier, JetBlue, etc.) there are still decent prices to be found. A lot of times it depends on when you want to fly (time of year, day of week, time of day, it all factors into it.)

Very true about the discount airlines. When SW came to Philly we saw a major drop in prices for the markets they serve. You still can get a $250 rt flight from Phl to mco if you book well in advance and get lucky I hadn't really thought about trying Allentown. It is so much nicer to fly out of than Philly since its smaller and easier to park and move around once you get there. Have you seen lower prices to Tampa vs Orlando? My flight to Tampa was half empty both ways but that doesn't always mean the prices are lower.

 

[Kingdom Konsultant]

The travel industry actually has seen a huge increase in the past year and I can attest to that. There are a lot more people traveling this year and from the requests we have been getting for quotes when the new 2013 prices come out, I would say it will still be going strong. The amount of disney cruises being booked has also increased tremendously. I do suggest that if you are looking for air to look into air travel that is mid week to mid week since the prices are always much higher Friday-Monday. Also keep in mind tht many airlines do not adjust their pricing until 6-7 months prior to your dates or less. And the one thing that I always suggest to my clients is to check out www.kayak.com for all of the airline pricing across the board including priceline and expedia.

Pam

 

[alissafalco]

As much as I would hate to have to drive from Long Island to Orlando, I would do it. If the cost of flights were so astronomical that we just couldn't afford it, but driving was the only way we could afford to go to WDW then thats what I would do. I don't think it would stop me from going to WDW. Also, in my early 20's I did do the drive in 1 day. I left at 6am and didn't get to Orlando until around 10:30-11pm. I only stopped for gas LOL....I don't think i would be able to do that today with my family but it is possible...

 

[2bornot2be]

Yes the cost to fly is getting to be outrages, for the first time in about 15 years my family and I will be driving to WDW this summer. I checked when planning and I will save over a thousand bucks by driving. That’s including Hotel stay (to and from), fuel, meals, and snacks while on the road

With the price of Disney increasing and Air just getting to be ridicules. It looks like I might be driving for a while. Well at least until my kids gets too old to travel with “mommy and daddy”

 

[mousehockey37]

Anyone have any thoughts about 2013? This has nothing to do with the state of WDW. For all we know, 2013 could be a banner year for the shape of the parks. However, I have to assume, if airfare prices stay as they are (or get worse), attendance will decline. Phrases like "I've never seen prices this high" get tossed around a lot, but I can honestly say, in the 15 years I've been paying for my own trips, I have never seen airfare so high. Now, obviously, from an inflation point of view, this only seems natural, but it's more than that. Just 3 years ago, I flew my family of 5 roundtrip from Providence for $600. 2 years ago, from Boston, maybe $1,500 roundtrip. I bought our airfare for July months ago and paid about $1,600. Right now, the exact same flights are $2,700. For January, I paid over $400 per person roundtrip. I just don't see this getting much better, especially given the fact that gas prices have been dropping. If they start to go up again, how will it affect airfare?

I really believe the travel industry as a whole is going to take a massive hit next year. People will drive a reasonable distance, but the average family does not want to drive hundreds or thousands of miles to go anywhere.

It's a toss up. People who are closer or just die hard will find a way to get there. For a ton of families, they're going to have to sit down and make decisions. I know living here in Central PA, they are running promos for Ocean City, MD. In the most recent commercial, Rodney the life guard gets on the plane, takes everyone off and wisks them away to OCMD. As I have lived by OCMD for 4 years, I'm well aware of the tourist trap it is, and it's very expensive on its own, but it's a better deal because it's within driving distance.

As I mentioned though, families may have to sit down and reassess when and how often they go to WDW. Families that go multiple times a year may only go once, ones that go annually may have to go bi-annually. Unfortunately for a lot of people, businesses are quick to raise their prices for products, but they're not in any hurry to raise the paychecks that their employees receive. So I have to agree there will be a hit, but it's going to be contained. As someone else stated, if Disney sees that there is a downfall in attendance, they'll do like OCMD is doing now, and promote closer to home to get people to come out.

 

[wilkeliza]

Depending on my financial standings in 2013 as well as other life changes that may or may not arrive I am not sure if a trip in 2013 will happen. Technically I leave WDW on Jan 4, 2013 but unless I am still working down there it may be too much by that point. I do however try to book flight tickets as far out as possible and then plan the rest of the trip around that.

 

[nepalostparks]

Very true about the discount airlines. When SW came to Philly we saw a major drop in prices for the markets they serve. You still can get a $250 rt flight from Phl to mco if you book well in advance and get lucky I hadn't really thought about trying Allentown. It is so much nicer to fly out of than Philly since its smaller and easier to park and move around once you get there. Have you seen lower prices to Tampa vs Orlando? My flight to Tampa was half empty both ways but that doesn't always mean the prices are lower.

Sometimes Tampa can come in lower that Orlando, sometimes not. My parents flew in from Harrisburg to Orlando the third week of May for $200 round trip (down on US Airways with a layover in DC, and home direct on Frontier). Flights for Tampa for those dates were coming in $100 or more higher, plus connections both ways and at god awful hours. They are looking at coming down in August, and have found decent flight times out of Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to Tampa for under $250 round trip, about the same they are finding out of Harrisburg or Allentown to Orlando.

Ultimately, there's no one answer. All depends on your dates, budget, and willingness to travel to/from other nearby airports. The one thing I suggest to people to consider if they are having a hard time finding flights at a decent price as a round trip ticket, to look at booking two one-way flights, whether on the same or different airlines. Sometimes (not all that often) you can find a better deal that way.

Say for example you're flying out on a Monday and coming home on a Friday. A round trip ticket on either US Airways or Southwest is $400 when you search prices. But lets say you look at one way flights on each day. The US flights are $100 on Monday, and $300 on Friday. The Southwest prices are $300 on Monday, and $100 on Friday. If you book it as two one-way flights, with US on Monday and Southwest on Friday, you're only paying $200 total. The pricing usually isn't that drastically different... but sometimes you can save a decent amount by booking that way.

 

[foreverbelle]

I can't say much, but I do agree that the airfare has gotten a bit ridiculous. It was in fact to high for our blood this year. The only thing we really changed was the fact we would be driving instead of flying. We haven't thought much about what we plan on doing for our 2013 trip, but we have said depending on how things go, we may be driving once again.

 

[Redsky89]

Even in a wacked out economy and raised prices on fuel it's amazing how Disney is going as strong as it has all these years. That to me says a lot. It will continue to have strong numbers in the coming years.