Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Is there any projection on how long the closure will be?

Extrapolating SARs, 4-6 weeks at the high end. Which was still a more aggressive coronavirus.

But neither Castle park is actually in the major affected province. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come back online in 2-4 weeks.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Extrapolating SARs, 4-6 weeks at the high end. Which was still a more aggressive coronavirus.

But neither Castle park is actually in the major affected province. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come back online in 2-4 weeks.
Just to add some context regarding the distances, if one was to fly from Wuhan to either park, it is about 3 ½ hours to Shanghai and 5 ½ hours to Hong Kong.
 

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
They will totally use that closed time as an excuse to remove things from US parks and "save money". How often has US parks suffered because of problems with international parks? I'm looking at you DLP.
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
They will totally use that closed time as an excuse to remove things from US parks and "save money". How often has US parks suffered because of problems with international parks? I'm looking at you DLP.

Probably never. The international parks are kept in separate business units and jointly owned by other ventures, so there is no way that Disney can really hide losses at those resorts or prop them up by moving funds from the domestic parks. That's not really how it works.

On the flip side, if there were some cost saving measures that could be implemented at the US parks, Disney has a fiduciary responsibility to implement those whether the international parks are doing poorly or not. Disney wouldn't just waste money at the domestic parks because the asian parks are doing well. That's bad business.

The bigger issue is that this outbreak has global ramifications that go beyond just Asia. Disneyland wouldn't be impacted at all by the closing of HKDL or SHDR if for a reason other than a global pandemic. A general fear in tourism and flying, concerns of a global recession kicked off by a closed off China, a weakening stock market at home, and even just a fear of tourist hotspots from the locals can all end up hurting Disneyland. Supply chain issues (no more popcorn buckets or funko pops) could girt merchandise sales and restrictions on Chinese produce could drive prices up and impact food options at DLR.

There are a lot of things that can make an impact that would be completely out of Disney's control. All we can do is wait and watch to see how long and how much worse this thing gets.
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
Extrapolating SARs, 4-6 weeks at the high end. Which was still a more aggressive coronavirus.

But neither Castle park is actually in the major affected province. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come back online in 2-4 weeks.

Also wanted to add: that in some way this seems more likely a PR stunt on behalf of the government than anything else. Based on the communication that SHDR was NOT closing that went out the day before, it seems likely that the government intervened and demanded the closing. They were taking a lot of heat over their reaction to the outbreak, and these were two big headline news items that helped them prove they were taking action against it.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Also wanted to add: that in some way this seems more likely a PR stunt on behalf of the government than anything else. Based on the communication that SHDR was NOT closing that went out the day before, it seems likely that the government intervened and demanded the closing. They were taking a lot of heat over their reaction to the outbreak, and these were two big headline news items that helped them prove they were taking action against it.

Honestly... I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Disney. Disney does not want their name associated whatsoever with an outbreak.

They are still reeling from Measles at Disneyland headlines... and that’s vaccine preventable. They don’t want (hundreds infected at Shanghai Disneyland) anywhere near the media cycle. Those repercussions can last a lot longer than closing the park for two weeks.
 

DanielBB8

Well-Known Member
They will totally use that closed time as an excuse to remove things from US parks and "save money". How often has US parks suffered because of problems with international parks? I'm looking at you DLP.
DLP was a totally separate issue. Disney was a minority investor. The profits were split proportionally, but Disney always gets royalty percentage and management fee. This is otherwise known as double-dipping. Disney made money despite having no profit to show for it. After Disney was able to acquire DLP, profits are more easily ascertained. The management fees are rolled up into expenses and royalty percentage is profit. That made DLP instantly profitable. Plus, Disney gotten DLP for almost no money via stock acquisition. The stock is so depressed after decades of losses.

I expect HKDL to suffer a similar fate. The Hong Kong government as majority owner will have second thoughts of pouring more public funds into a losing enterprise. They also don't want to keep splitting the costs of park expansion. They know Disney is double dipping with royalties and management fees. We will see what happens.

I can see the US parks pulling back due to all the global turmoil, but Disney US parks can also lower it's prices if it wants to juice up attendance. Disney parks just gotten too expensive lately and no one is impressed with Star Wars Land as opposed to Rise of Resistance and few people care to always wake up so early for that.
 
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el_super

Well-Known Member
Honestly... I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Disney. Disney does not want their name associated whatsoever with an outbreak.

For Disney, the questions would be fat harder to answer. Closing the park doesn't just mean lost revenue, but potentially laying off thousands of people, halting projects and potentially opening up additional risks of having a closed/unmaintained facility. Since the Chinese Government does have to worry about the repercussions, its easier for them to order them closed for safety.

Also: Ocean park closed the same day. Could be that they coordinated, but external order seems more likely.
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
I expect HKDL to suffer a similar fate. The Hong Kong government as majority owner will have second thoughts of pouring more public funds into a losing enterprise.

If the HK Government gives up on HKDL, there's about a 90% chance that it will be leveled for additional housing/retail. There is tremendous pressure on the government to build housing and that's their priority. The billion+ that Disney is currently investing in the property is to hold off the government seizing the land for their second gate, which was pretty close to happening.

There's zero chance the HK Government will sell the land outright to a foreign corporation.
 

DanielBB8

Well-Known Member
If the HK Government gives up on HKDL, there's about a 90% chance that it will be leveled for additional housing/retail. There is tremendous pressure on the government to build housing and that's their priority. The billion+ that Disney is currently investing in the property is to hold off the government seizing the land for their second gate, which was pretty close to happening.

There's zero chance the HK Government will sell the land outright to a foreign corporation.
I don't see how HK Government will destroy HK Disneyland even if they want to rid itself of the responsibility. A contract is still a contract. They will try to build the second park before they lose the opportunity. This is the land that some want for public housing. There's pressure to build housing, but it requires legislation. They aren't that stupid. Disneyland is on reclaimed land. If it wasn't for HKDL, the land wouldn't exist.

"Speaking to lawmakers in a legislature meeting, Chan acknowledged that the site currently cannot be used for residential purposes, according to the land contract.

“But we hope Disneyland can consider its social responsibility and allow an exemption, so that the site can be used for transitional housing,” Chan said.

The 148-acre piece of land is reserved for a second-phase development of the theme park, which opened in 2005. Suggestions for the tract to be converted to housing have been made before.

A Hong Kong Disneyland spokesperson told the South China Morning Post that the question of the park’s development is “a matter for discussion between the two shareholders—the Hong Kong government and the Walt Disney Company.” Disney representatives did not respond to TIME Tuesday."

There is one possible arrangement. HK Gov't can decide on a leaseback arrangement. Disney can take on all responsibility and profits, while the gov't gets rent for Disneyland and the land. No more risk for the HK Gov't.
 

truecoat

Well-Known Member
Just an additional note to your common sense post - hand sanitizers should be used in conjunction with warm soapy water - not as a replacement. There are times that the convenience of hand sanitizers is easier, and may be slightly better at killing viruses - if 70% alcohol; the ones with less are not very effective.

So using both is the best way to protect yourselves.

Hand sanitizers are fine when you can't wash your hands but you don't need them on top of washing your hands with soap and water. Using soap and water is the most effective way to clean your hands.
 

The Mom

Moderator
Premium Member
Hand sanitizers are fine when you can't wash your hands but you don't need them on top of washing your hands with soap and water. Using soap and water is the most effective way to clean your hands.

If you have access to soap and water all day long, then that is the better option. But most of us do not, so having hand sanitizer on your desk, in your car, etc and then using soap and water when available is the best option.
 

George Lucas on a Bench

Well-Known Member
HWS-3424K_B_HR_540x540.jpg


Just bring one of these around with you.
 

truecoat

Well-Known Member
If you have access to soap and water all day long, then that is the better option. But most of us do not, so having hand sanitizer on your desk, in your car, etc and then using soap and water when available is the best option.

My comment was just directed toward the soap and water + hand sanitizer.

My only other tip is over use of sanitizer with a high alcohol content can cause alcohol poisoning especially with the young ones.
 

chadwpalm

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
My comment was just directed toward the soap and water + hand sanitizer.

My only other tip is over use of sanitizer with a high alcohol content can cause alcohol poisoning especially with the young ones.
It's more than that. Overuse of hand sanitizer kills the good bacteria on your skin and can actually make your body immune to antibiotics which is really bad when you really need to take them.
 

Ismael Flores

Well-Known Member
But if this virus is truly deadly to some, how can you stay open if you can be a source of it being spread? Both Ethically, plus being open to lawsuits.
i really doubt lawsuits can be involved here or have any chance of proceeding.

The virus is asymptomatic, Disney can not go around asking or knowing wether a person is contagious and they do not have to close unless it becomes an epidemic. They would also have to do the same to every major theme park and most likely theater chains in the area.

that is worst case scenario, population is not as dense as in the epicenter of the disease.
 

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