Why Walt Disney World Needs a 5th Theme Park By 2025

[JohnD]

That everyone going to WDW did a MK day or two at the expense of going to the other parks is well known. And WDW built for that. And when overall numbers were lower, it worked for them. No problem at all... until attendance hit a tipping point where MK is saturated year-round.

Note how much the DAK attendance spiked with the addition of their nighttime hours and Pandora. If they could do more of that at DAK and Epcot and DHS and make them each repeatable two-day parks (and more family friendly), then that should drive the week-long vacationers to stop repeating MK throughout the week and do more of the other parks.

But, with regard to a 5th Gate, unless it's MK 2.0, it won't do what it needs to do. What's needed is for the other three to be must-see two-day parks.

I understand what you’re saying about spreading out the crowds to the other parks but let’s face it, MK will always be the most visited. First, MK exemplifies WDW particularly for families bringing their children for the first time. Second, if you can only afford one park particularly if for the first time whether for yourself or your family, the park is likely to be MK. So, yeah, capacity for MK needs to be increased. Adding Tron spreads the crowds in MK but does it add capacity, I don’t know.

 

[cmb5002]

Pandora a SINGLE LAND, with 2 RIDES, took 5 years!! in an existing park in a pre planned expansion area.

a new from the dirt park would probably take 10 years, otherwise it will end up rushed like hollywood studios was which is why they are having to spend so much money on it now to bring it up to par

There's one major reason that a new park can't take 10 years. They cannot profit from a park under construction. When you look at Pandora, Toy Story Land, and Galaxy's Edge, these were all built in parks that are already profitable with daytime tickets, food and merchandise. They must build it quicker than 10 years to help recuperate the expense of building it.

 

[TheDowntownDino]

A 5th park is an inevitability and I'd guess it will come within 10-15 years. I'm sure they're already planning it and have lots of different concepts.

Two things I would want from a new park:
-Original concepts - Character or canon based parks/lands almost always lose their interest at some point. It may take a while, but ultimately the things that carry the current parks is their innovation and ideas. You need a concept to start a park, not just a series or group of characters.

-Major attractions - This park would need at least two attractions that draw people on their own.. MK obviously has a ton, AK (Everest, Flights of Passage, Kali), DHS (Rock n Roller Coaster, Tower of Terror, Toy Story Mania), Epcot (Soarin', Test Track). Going back to my previous point, nearly all of these are independent of any characters. That's absolutely imperative, especially starting a new park.

** I'm curious to hear what everyone would like to see concept wise from a new park as I think we all agree one is coming eventually.

 

[winstongator]

I'm no rocket scientist, but, like others have said, maybe the other parks just need to increase the # of attractions.

Every visitor does visit the Magic Kingdom because its so iconic but they spend a disproportionate amount of time there because it has such a large percentage of the resorts attractions. My informal review has MK at over 30 attractions (not including shows or movies) at over 30 while all the other parks combined are under 30.

If Disney made a commitment to get 20-25 attractions (ie, rides) in each of the three non-MK parks, the resort would total close to 100 total attractions with about 1/3 in MK. That would reduce the time spent by a typical 5 day visitor in MK from 2 1/2 to 1 ½ days.

If Disney made that type of investment in ride capacity all 40 rides would not need to be headliners but actually have a balance of b-e tickets to keep the crowds happy.

They could increase ride capacity by 40% w/o a new gate.

I know this runs counter to the current trend of IP lands w/ a couple of actual rides and some would argue that not all the parks could handle 20-25 attractions, but it would be a path to manage growth and lessen the strain on MK.

Caveat of passholders visit WDW differently, we didn't spend a disproportionate time at the MK. Our last visit we didn't go there at all: Epcot, DHS & AK. Before that a solo day trip to DHS and Epcot. Time before that we had our only res at CRT, so we had to do MK. A day trip with my daughters to DHS (their choice). Two single days at AK to visit Pandora sandwiching our trip to Yellowstone in July. The more we went, the less MK-centric our trips became.

Despite the numbers stating that MK is the park most visited by nearly 2-fold over the others, I'm still a firm believer a 5th gate is necessary. Well...maybe it's more of an opinion but the reason I believe so is simple:

DAK opened in 1998. So for the last 20 years we've had the four parks. Despite some new lands like Fantasyland, TSL, SWGE, and Pandora, the parks haven't/will not have expanded THAT much capacity. However, resorts have expanded tremendously. Since the opening of DAK these resorts have also opened:

All-Star Movies
Villas at Wilderness Lodge
Animal Kingdom Lodge
Beach Club Villas
Pop Century
Saratoga Springs
Kidani Village
Bay Lake Tower
Re-Vamped Treehouse Villas
Art of Animation
Villas at Grand Floridian
Villas at Polynesian

And on top of all those additions, current construction and planned projects include:

Riviera Resort
Coronado Springs Tower
Star Wars Hotel
Epcot Hotel

So many more people on property in all those resorts all going to and crowding the same four parks. I'm absolutely not thinking from a business perspective, just the perspective of a tourist who wants to see the crowds more dispersed

Sometimes I view WDW as a giant hotel with great added-cost amenities (the parks).

 

[thomas998]

No way!
That is way off. I can think of two very quick scenarios/ potentialities that can hurt far worse than that

By all means explain. But the math is pretty straight forward you do an NPV on a cash flow and assume the same costs and same revenue on two scenarios, the one where you spend more year with no revenue is going to be the worse return.

 

[MisterPenguin]

MK will always be the most visited. it needs more attractions to absorb the crowds, the problem with that though is that it then increases the crowds even more since people want to see the "new stuff"

Indeed, more attractions attract more visitors. And then you have the problem of infrastructure: getting people through the gate and transportation to and from the gate; enough restaurants and bathrooms; walkways become gridlocked; etc...

Sure, MK will always be the most visited, but if each of the other parks had a full suite of rides, then instead of a week of: MK/MK/MK/Ep/DHS/DAK; guests might be willing to switch one of their extra MK days to another park.

 

[winstongator]

Indeed, more attractions attract more visitors. And then you have the problem of infrastructure: getting people through the gate and transportation to and from the gate; enough restaurants and bathrooms; walkways become gridlocked; etc...

Sure, MK will always be the most visited, but if each of the other parks had a full suite of rides, then instead of a week of: MK/MK/MK/Ep/DHS/DAK; guests might be willing to switch one of their extra MK days to another park.

I think it will be at that point by 2021, and almost is now. Attendance is closer to 2x for MK. We did 22 park visits last year: 4 MK, 5 Epcot, 7 HS (we’re weird), 5 AK. Our longest trip, spring break, was MKx2, HSx2,E,AK,DS. The first magic kingdom day was driven by dinner at be our guest. A great character meal drives a lot. I might prefer crystal palace to Akershus, and that’s the 3rd best character meal at MK.

Now 2021...HS is fully operational, Epcot has gotg & ratatouille, and AK maintains with Pandora. Say MK draws 21m, other parks 14m each. Instead of 2mk days per day at another park, it’ll be 1.5. There will be more people doing multiple days at HS, as there probably were in late 2017 at AK with Pandora. The value of hoppers will go up - get fp for TSL, SWGE, Pandora, but spend time at another park as well - we already do this.

The theme and design of a 5th gate is more difficult than most give credit. Epcot’s initial ideas go way back to Walt. HS was accelerated when universal was under construction. Imagine if they opened a park that had what HS originally had today. AK draws on the animals. Another impediment is the organizational restructuring that the Fox acquisition will bring, as well as ESPNs continued decline. Also think about all the road infrastructure work they’ve done recently. Transportation around wdw is an issue, which is one reason for the gondolas. Can we gleam from the roads where a 5th gate would go? If not, imagine how much that would throw off the road plan. Imagine all the new stuff over the past 5+ years went into a new gate: new fantasyland, Pandora, TSL, swge, gotg, tron ratatouille. How would the existing parks, especially the non-MK parks feel?

IMO, parks are going to feel very full for a while. A Slow season will be even more gone. Disney should be at least be doing some pie in the sky long term planning beyond more dvc, and I’d imagine somewhere there is.

 

[Bob Harlem]

MGM aka Hollywood Studios came about because they wanted something open before Universal. Universal is already doing land grading and prep for the new park down south and probably will move quickly (more quickly than many expect) to build down there (2021-2022).

That will include a 3rd theme park, and probably another water park (And room left over for a 4th theme park later). If that doesn't doesn't force Disney to do it, nothing will. The caveat, if Disney gets Fox, you can bet comcast will fund the heck out of the Universal South expansion.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A fifth gate would cannibalize their existing 4 that are long since paid for but run high daily operational costs that grow over time.

A fifth gate would also commit to higher outlays for employees and overhead that Wall Street would detest.

And since the outside/Home consumer product market is in decline - a fifth Park wouldn’t drive sales at home...

So really this is not an issue at all. That’s just the way it is.

The one caveat would be if Comcast continues to do large investment in Orlando...but that is also largely dependent on it they run into their own static point where they cannibalize themselves?

You have to look at it this way - they won’t build a new park for an increase of 10% annual attendance and an increase of 20% daily costs. That’s diminishing returns that they began to see with DAK. A lot of that is societal...but the fact doesn’t change anything.

 

[winstongator]

MGM aka Hollywood Studios came about because they wanted something open before Universal. Universal is already doing land grading and prep for the new park down south and probably will move quickly (more quickly than many expect) to build down there (2021-2022).

That will include a 3rd theme park, and probably another water park (And room left over for a 4th theme park later). If that doesn't doesn't force Disney to do it, nothing will. The caveat, if Disney gets Fox, you can bet comcast will fund the heck out of the Universal South expansion.

Is there any personal animus between Iger & Brian Roberts?

 

[bjlc57]

I honestly believe a 5th gate is needed.. you could have stated years ago that we didn't need park 3 MGM, Or park 4 Ak.. but guess what .. yes, yes we do.. and its getting tougher and tougher to find a small attendance day. its time to make the move. .I don't know what they can do.. but I would be that some place , some where. .the plans have been drawn up.. and just waiting for approval.. and I would bet that Marnie or Lee or any of the other TRUE INSIDERS would agree with me. .Disney knows what the next park already is .. and what's going to be in it. .its just a matter of time and place to pull the pin and tell us all .. and the maps are made. .and the location has been picked. .and the roads.. the NEW ROADS. in anticipation of all this new traffic, are being made as we speak.. and they aren't going slow on the roads.. and they aren't dragging their feet. . Something is in the wind. . maybe, just maybe, they are listening to the dreamers once again.. or that they need to spend money as a tax diversion.. and you have all the bean counters in the world to tell you that you need to "spend some money"..

 

[ParentsOf4]

A fifth gate would also commit to higher outlays for employees and overhead that Wall Street would detest.

Interesting tidbit to add to this ...

Wall Street thought Epcot was a terrible idea in 1981.

If Wall Street had its way, WDW would consist of the Magic Kingdom, a bunch of timeshares, and Disney Springs.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting tidbit to add to this ...

Wall Street thought Epcot was a terrible idea in 1981.

If Wall Street had its way, WDW would consist of the Magic Kingdom, a bunch of timeshares, and Disney Springs.

And would that have lead to less profit per dollars spent??

...interesting question, no?

 

[ChrisFL]

View attachment 292701

bean counters

Walt referred to the same kind of people as "pencil pushers" so maybe we can call them that

 

[larryz]

If you think about it, I think the takeaway from this chart is simple. The majority of people doing Disney don't do it for the other parks, they do it for MK. Unless Disney were to create another MK, you are probably going to just keep seeing MK numbers go up and the other parks or any new parks are likely to hover around the same 10 million a year number. If anything this simple shows that Disney doesn't need any new park they simply need to expand the MK to allow for continued visitor growth in the future... Or at the very least banning strollers so the park can hold more people.

I believe a Star Wars 5th gate, done correctly, would take a lot of pressure off of MK.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I believe a Star Wars 5th gate, done correctly, would take a lot of pressure off of MK.

Um...about that Star Wars thing...yeah...umm

 

[Brian]

I believe a Star Wars 5th gate, done correctly, would take a lot of pressure off of MK.

That ship has sailed.

 

[bjlc57]

yeah.. I don't believe it. . that the star wars ship has sailed.. ONE BIG MOVIE.. and there is one coming up.. and it will correct the listing ship.. and then some.. plus , from what I understand.. unless you have money falling out on the floor from your pockets, you aren't staying in the star wars hotel for close to 4 to 5 years after it opens.. because its already booked 3 years out.. James Bond and Star Trek are the same thing.. now and then there is a bad one.. Don't worry..they will make another and it will be a grand slam home run..

 

[bjlc57]

speaking of those two franchises .., James bond and Star Trek.. are they now under the Disney "roof" so to speak. who controls them..?

 

[Seanual757]

Disney needs a all out Adventure them park with thrill rides to keep families from doing split stays at Disney and Universal. Keep the folks in house.

Disney's Florida Adventure 7-8 thrill roller coasters, Cars land and other rides.